ABNB

Cyclical

Airbnb

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2019–2025(7yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$4.8B	$3.4B	$6.0B	$8.4B	$9.9B	$11.1B	$12.2B	+10.3%
Gross Profit	$3.6B	$2.5B	$4.8B	$6.9B	$8.2B	$9.2B	$10.2B	+10.1%
Gross Margin	75.1%	74.1%	80.7%	82.2%	82.8%	83.1%	83.0%	-0.1pp
Operating Income	-$501.5M	-$3.6B	$429.3M	$1.8B	$1.5B	$2.6B	$2.5B	-0.4%
Operating Margin	-10.4%	-106.3%	7.2%	21.5%	15.3%	23.0%	20.8%	-2.2pp
Net Income	-$674.3M	-$4.6B	-$352.0M	$1.9B	$4.8B	$2.6B	$2.5B	-5.2%
Net Margin	-14.0%	-135.7%	-5.9%	22.5%	48.3%	23.9%	20.5%	-3.3pp
Free Cash Flow	$97.3M	-$667.1M	$2.2B	$3.4B	—	—	—	—
FCF Margin	2.0%	-19.7%	36.1%	40.5%	—	—	—	—
EPS (Diluted)	$-2.59	$-16.12	$-0.57	$2.97	$7.52	$4.19	$4.10	-2.2%

Total Debt$0.00

Cash & Equiv.$6.6B

Net Cash$6.6B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Airbnb is successfully decoupling its growth from expensive advertising, using its brand dominance to maintain a lower reliance on paid marketing than its rivals (10-K Item 1). This efficiency has allowed it to become the most profitable player in the travel and delivery space by net margin while simultaneously funding the industry’s most aggressive share buyback program.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

The "System of Trust" that Airbnb cites as a core competitive advantage is becoming increasingly expensive to maintain. The costs for AirCover, which provides up to $3 million in host property damage protection, are rising as Airbnb struggles to secure insurance coverage at reasonable rates (10-K Item 1, Risks). These rising premiums directly threaten the high margins generated by the marketplace model. Furthermore, the "global marketplace" strategy faces structural erosion from local governance; for instance, the "de facto ban" on short-term rentals in New York City demonstrates how regulatory "onerous restrictions" can abruptly shutter key markets regardless of brand strength (Competitive Position). Finally, the $1.3 billion IRS claim regarding intellectual property valuation threatens the very cash reserves Airbnb relies on to manage counterparty defaults in its payment processing network (Risks).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While Airbnb’s TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of 10.3% places it in the middle of its peer group, its most recent quarterly performance shows the business is gaining speed. Revenue grew 12% in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by a 16% jump in Gross Booking Value (8-K). This acceleration, which management attributes to "disciplined execution" and demand across all regions, suggests Airbnb is successfully navigating a "tough year-over-year comparison" (8-K). Unlike peers like DoorDash, which is growing faster (+27.9%) but with much thinner operating margins (5.5%), Airbnb maintains a 28.8% operating margin (XBRL). This allows Airbnb to lead the peer group in buyback yield at 4.8%, returning more capital to shareholders than Booking Holdings or Hilton (Peer Benchmarking). Short interest stands at 3.6% of the float, suggesting that while some investors are skeptical of the regulatory overhang, there is no massive speculative bet against Airbnb's operations.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 22.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Airbnb trades exactly in line with the peer median (Peer Benchmarking). This valuation appears supported by Airbnb’s fundamentals; the market is pricing in approximately 6.5% long-term growth, yet Airbnb is currently delivering double-digit revenue growth and 26.8% net margins—the highest among its peers (CAPM analysis, XBRL). However, this "fair" price assumes Airbnb can dodge its looming tax and regulatory hurdles. According to the provided sensitivity analysis, if growth were to slow to 5.0% due to further city-wide bans or higher insurance costs, the justified multiple would drop to 17.0x, representing significant downside (CAPM analysis). Investors are currently paying a standard market price for a company with elite profitability but "Elevated" legal risks.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the IRS tax dispute results in a final judgment requiring a payment near the $1.3 billion assessment, as this exceeds current reserves by $1.0 billion (Risks).
Constructive if the "Airbnb Services" and "Redesigned Experiences" launched in May 2025 show a measurable contribution to Gross Booking Value in 2026, proving the platform can successfully expand beyond accommodations (10-K Item 1, 8-K).
Cautious if Average Daily Rates (ADR), which grew 6% to $168 in the most recent quarter, begin to contract, signaling a loss of pricing power or a shift toward lower-margin markets (8-K).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A dominant global brand that drives organic traffic and a high-margin "system of trust" that allows for industry-leading capital returns through buybacks. Bottom Line: Airbnb is a high-performance cash machine currently obscured by a multi-billion dollar cloud of tax and regulatory uncertainty.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Tax Disputes: Airbnb is currently contesting a $1.3 billion tax assessment from the IRS related to the 2013 valuation of international intellectual property. This amount exceeds current reserves by more than $1.0 billion.
Payment Processing Reliance: Airbnb relies on third-party payment service providers and financial institutions to process transactions and hold customer funds. A default by a counterparty or a failure to manage these funds could result in significant losses and the need to use Airbnb’s own cash to cover host payments or guest refunds.
Regulatory Compliance Costs: Airbnb faces complex, evolving, and often inconsistent global regulations regarding short-term rentals. Compliance requires significant investment in infrastructure and tools, and failure to comply can lead to fines, site blocking, or business disruption, such as the 65 million Euro ($76 million) fine proposed by the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs in 2025.
Insurance and Protection Program Costs: Airbnb’s costs for insurance and its Host Damage Protection program are rising. Airbnb has experienced increased difficulty in obtaining appropriate coverage at reasonable costs, and losses from covered claims have increased, leading to higher premiums.
Market Volatility and Stock Structure: Airbnb’s multi-series common stock structure, which grants 20 votes per share to Class B holders, concentrates control and may make Class A common stock less attractive to investors, potentially depressing its market price.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Live and Work Anywhere Policy: Airbnb’s remote work policy creates operational and tax risks, including potential permanent establishment assertions by foreign tax authorities, which could result in additional corporate income taxes and payroll withholding obligations.
AI and Machine Learning Integration: The use of AI for customer support and platform features introduces risks of "hallucinatory" or inaccurate outputs, which could lead to reputational harm, consumer complaints, and legal liability.
Platform Integrity and Fraud: For the year ended December 31, 2025, total chargeback expense was $67 million. Airbnb remains vulnerable to fraudulent listings and account takeovers that require continuous investment in detection systems.
Reliance on Third-Party Hosting: Airbnb relies primarily on Amazon Web Services to host its platform. Any service interruption or cybersecurity incident at this provider could impair the delivery of services and damage Airbnb's reputation.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

EU Short-Term Rental Regulation: Entering into force in May 2026, this regulation will require enhanced transparency and data sharing with local authorities, which may discourage hosts from listing properties.
OECD Pillar Two: The 15% global minimum tax under the OECD’s BEPS Project could increase Airbnb’s overall tax obligations.
Data Privacy Laws: Airbnb is subject to the EU GDPR, UK GDPR, and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Non-compliance or perceived failure to comply with these and other global privacy laws can result in significant fines and legal liability.
Anti-Corruption Laws: Airbnb operates in countries known for high levels of corruption and is subject to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the UK Bribery Act 2010.

4. Financial Impact Map

IRS Tax Dispute → Cash Flow / Income Tax Expense → $1.3 billion claim plus penalties and interest, exceeding current reserves by over $1.0 billion. Counterparty Default → Cash and Cash Equivalents / Operating Expenses → Potential loss of corporate balances and funds held on behalf of customers. Regulatory Fines → Operating Expenses → Potential for significant penalties, such as the $76 million fine proposed in Spain. Insurance Premiums → Operating Expenses → Costs are expected to rise as the business grows and claims frequency/severity increases. Share Repurchases → Cash and Cash Equivalents / Stockholders' Equity → The 1% excise tax on repurchases under the Inflation Reduction Act increases the cost of returning capital to shareholders.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—