ADM
DefensiveArcher Daniels Midland
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2009–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $69.2B | $61.7B | $80.7B | $89.0B | $90.6B | $89.8B | $81.2B | $67.7B | $62.3B | $60.8B | $64.3B | $64.7B | $64.4B | $85.2B | $101.6B | $93.9B | $85.5B | $80.3B | -6.2% |
| Gross Profit | $4.1B | $3.8B | $4.3B | $3.7B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.8B | $4.0B | $3.7B | $3.5B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $6.0B | $7.6B | $7.5B | $5.8B | $5.0B | -12.9% |
| Gross Margin | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | -0.5pp |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.7B | $4.3B | $3.5B | $1.8B | $1.1B | -40.1% |
| Net Margin | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | -0.8pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B | $1.1B | -$3.6B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $1.4B | $593.0M | $1.2B | -$5.6B | -$6.3B | -$3.2B | $5.4B | $2.2B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $4.2B | +242.6% |
| FCF Margin | 5.0% | 1.7% | -4.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | -8.7% | -9.7% | -5.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 5.2% | +3.8pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.62 | $3.00 | $3.13 | $1.84 | $2.08 | $2.02 | $3.43 | $2.98 | $2.16 | $2.79 | $3.19 | $2.44 | $3.15 | $4.79 | $7.71 | $6.43 | $3.65 | $2.23 | -38.9% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Archer Daniels Midland is a business in a cyclical retreat, struggling to maintain its footing as the tailwinds of the global agricultural cycle turn into significant headwinds. While management frames the future around "innovation" and "bio-based solutions," the immediate reality is a double-digit earnings decline across every major operating segment, leaving Archer Daniels Midland’s near-term performance tethered to a hoped-for recovery in U.S. biofuel policy and global trade flows.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Archer Daniels Midland’s "unparalleled transportation and logistics network" is its primary competitive strength, yet this network is increasingly threatened by operational fragility. Because Archer Daniels Midland is often dependent on a single plant or facility in specific regions, unplanned downtime from equipment failure or natural disasters can lead to repair expenditures and liabilities that exceed insurance coverage (Risks). This creates a bottleneck where a localized failure can negate the advantages of its "integrated global network" (Business).
Furthermore, Archer Daniels Midland’s "Sustainability Leadership"—specifically its push into carbon capture and regenerative agriculture—is highly sensitive to evolving global regulations. Strategic initiatives like BioSolutions are threatened by the OECD’s Pillar Two tax initiative and shifting ESG mandates, which could transform these competitive differentiators into significant compliance costs and tax liabilities (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a stark disconnect between Archer Daniels Midland’s narrative of "innovation" and its actual performance. While the Nutrition segment is touted as a high-value, vertically integrated business, its profit fell 11% in the most recent quarter (8-K). More broadly, Archer Daniels Midland’s revenue growth of -6.2% is the worst among its peer group, trailing far behind competitors like Bunge (+32.4%) and General Mills (Peer Benchmarking).
The divergence between the current -6.2% revenue decline and management’s 2026 guidance for Adjusted EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric of $3.60 to $4.25 is explained by temporary structural shifts: lower soybean export activity and "weaker crush margins" in North and South America (8-K). Despite these earnings pressures, Archer Daniels Midland maintains a Free Cash Flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin of 7.1%, ranking 3rd among its peers. This suggests that while profits are compressing, Archer Daniels Midland’s ability to generate cash from its massive asset base remains intact, supported by a low net leverage ratio of 1.0x (Computed Valuation Context). Short interest stands at 3.6% of the float, indicating a moderate level of market caution regarding the timing of a turnaround.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a 14.9x forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Archer Daniels Midland trades at a 9% premium to the peer median of 13.7x (Peer Benchmarking). This premium is difficult to justify given that Archer Daniels Midland is currently the slowest grower in its sector. At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 1.5% long-term growth (Computed Valuation Context).
This valuation assumes that the current downturn is mean-reverting rather than structural. If Archer Daniels Midland can achieve a GDP-paced growth of 2.5%, the justified multiple would rise to 17.4x. However, the primary risk to this valuation is the "ongoing uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy" cited by the CEO (8-K). If this policy environment remains murky, or if crush margins do not recover as expected, the market is unlikely to maintain even the current 14.9x multiple.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if: The Ag Services & Oilseeds segment reports a stabilization or increase in "crush margins," which would signal that the primary driver of the current earnings slump has bottomed out (8-K).
- Cautious if: The Nutrition segment continues its double-digit profit decline, which would undermine management’s claim that this "innovation-led" business can offset the volatility of raw commodity processing.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A vertically integrated global logistics and processing network that captures value from crop origination through to specialized food and fuel ingredients.
Bottom Line: Archer Daniels Midland is a cash-generative giant currently trapped in a cyclical trough; until biofuel policy clarifies and processing margins stabilize, its valuation premium to peers remains vulnerable.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Operational Disruption: Archer Daniels Midland faces risks from unplanned downtime caused by equipment failure, natural disasters, fires, or labor disputes. Because Archer Daniels Midland is sometimes dependent on a single plant or facility in a specific region, these events can lead to significant repair expenditures and liabilities that may exceed insurance coverage.
- Commodity and Energy Price Volatility: Archer Daniels Midland’s operating costs and finished product prices are sensitive to energy prices (electricity, natural gas, coal) and logistics costs. Significant increases in these inputs, or inflationary pressures, directly impact production costs and operating margins.
- Strategic Execution and Divestitures: Archer Daniels Midland’s efforts to optimize its portfolio through divestitures or joint ventures involve risks of unanticipated delays and costs. Management attention may be diverted from core operations to address integration issues or failed transactions, potentially impacting financial results.
- Geopolitical Conflict: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical tensions threaten Archer Daniels Midland’s assets in affected regions with property damage, inventory loss, and expropriation. These events disrupt trade flows and increase volatility in commodity prices and margins.
- Regulatory Compliance: Archer Daniels Midland must comply with complex, evolving global regulations regarding food safety, environmental standards, and ESG disclosures. Failure to meet these requirements can result in substantial fines, facility shutdowns, and reputational damage.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Transportation Infrastructure Reliance: Archer Daniels Midland’s business model is uniquely dependent on access to navigable rivers and waterways to fulfill transportation obligations; disruptions to these routes or water availability can impair Archer Daniels Midland’s ability to deliver products.
- Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) Exposure: As a result of its FCM business and captive insurance provider, Archer Daniels Midland is subject to specific, complex financial regulations—including Dodd-Frank and European Market Infrastructure Regulation—that differ from its core agricultural operations.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Scaling: Archer Daniels Midland is actively diversifying into CCS operations to capture CO2; this strategy is subject to unique risks regarding permit maintenance, regulatory compliance, and the realization of anticipated tax credits like the "45Z" credit.
- Human Capital Shortage: Archer Daniels Midland’s global operations require a specific supply of skilled trade and production workers; an inability to staff facilities due to a limited pool of qualified labor directly threatens Archer Daniels Midland’s manufacturing output.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Tax Policy Changes: The U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) and the OECD’s Pillar Two initiative (15% global minimum tax) introduce uncertainty regarding Archer Daniels Midland’s tax position, potential mandatory disclosures, and increased tax assessments.
- Trade and Tariff Policies: Archer Daniels Midland is exposed to risks from restrictive trade policies, such as U.S. soybean trade disruptions with China and the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy regarding renewable volume obligations (RVO), which impact demand for feedstocks.
- Legal Proceedings: Archer Daniels Midland is involved in various ongoing legal proceedings; the outcomes are uncertain and could result in excessive adverse verdicts or fines that divert management resources and impact financial results.
- AI and Digital Governance: Archer Daniels Midland faces legal and regulatory risks related to the use of artificial intelligence, including potential liability for AI-driven decisions and compliance with evolving global frameworks for data privacy and security.
4. Financial Impact Map
Operational Disruptions → Operating Expenses → Significant investments and expenditures to repair damaged facilities or equipment. Commodity Price Volatility → Working Capital → Fluctuations in commodity prices directly affect margin requirements on open positions on futures exchanges. Energy Price Increases → Production Costs → Sensitivity of processing plants to electricity, natural gas, and coal prices. Geopolitical Conflict → Margins and Inventory Values → Volatility in commodity prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates negatively affecting hedging positions. Tax Law Changes → Effective Tax Rate → Material adjustments from tax audits and changes in the valuation of deferred tax assets and liabilities.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
BMO Capital Raises ADM Price Target to $65; Company Reaffirms 2026 EPS Guidance
- ▸BMO Capital raised ADM price target to $65 from $63
- ▸FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance range $3.60–$4.25
- ▸Targeting $500M–$750M in total cost savings over 3-5 years
- ▸FY2026 capital expenditure forecast $1.3B–$1.5B
- ▸Q1 2026 crush margins expected to remain consistent with Q4 2025
ADM Appoints Michael McMurray to Board of Directors; Expects $100M Biofuel Credit Boost
- ▸Michael McMurray appointed to board of directors
- ▸McMurray to serve on Audit and Sustainability and Technology committees
- ▸ADM expects $100 million boost from 45Z biofuel credit
- ▸Bolstered South American operations via Barcarena port facility improvements
- ▸Maintains offtake agreement for 100% of Western Potash Milestone project production