ADSK

Technology

Autodesk

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2026(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026Latest	YoY
Revenue	$2.2B	$2.3B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.6B	$3.3B	$3.8B	$4.4B	$5.0B	$5.5B	$6.1B	$7.2B	+17.5%
Gross Profit	$2.0B	$2.1B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.0B	$2.2B	$2.1B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.3B	$2.9B	$3.5B	$4.0B	$4.5B	$5.0B	$5.6B	$6.6B	+18.1%
Gross Margin	90.4%	90.5%	88.8%	89.9%	89.7%	89.7%	87.9%	86.4%	85.2%	83.2%	85.2%	88.9%	90.1%	91.1%	90.5%	90.4%	90.7%	90.6%	91.0%	+0.4pp
Operating Income	$445.6M	$244.5M	$65.6M	$271.4M	$355.6M	$305.9M	$284.8M	$120.7M	$1.3M	-$499.6M	-$509.1M	-$25.0M	$343.0M	$629.1M	$617.6M	$989.0M	$1.1B	$1.4B	$1.6B	+16.5%
Operating Margin	20.5%	10.6%	3.8%	13.9%	16.0%	13.2%	12.5%	4.8%	0.1%	-24.6%	-24.8%	-1.0%	10.5%	16.6%	14.1%	19.8%	20.5%	22.1%	21.9%	-0.2pp
Net Income	$356.2M	$183.6M	$58.0M	$212.0M	$285.3M	$247.4M	$228.8M	$81.8M	-$330.5M	-$582.1M	-$566.9M	-$80.8M	$214.5M	$1.2B	$497.0M	$823.0M	$906.0M	$1.1B	$1.1B	+1.1%
Net Margin	16.4%	7.9%	3.4%	10.9%	12.9%	10.7%	10.1%	3.3%	-13.2%	-28.7%	-27.6%	-3.1%	6.6%	31.9%	11.3%	16.4%	16.5%	18.1%	15.6%	-2.5pp
Free Cash Flow	$665.2M	$515.5M	$207.8M	$512.5M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$310.1M	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$2.0B	$1.3B	$1.6B	$2.4B	+53.7%
FCF Margin	30.6%	22.3%	12.1%	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.1%	41.6%	35.5%	33.6%	40.6%	23.3%	25.6%	33.4%	+7.9pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.47	$0.80	$0.25	$0.90	$1.22	$1.07	$1.00	$0.35	$-1.46	$-2.61	$-2.58	$-0.37	$0.96	$5.44	$2.24	$3.78	$4.19	$5.12	$5.23	+2.1%

Total Debt$2.5B

Cash & Equiv.$2.2B

Net Debt$251.0M

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Autodesk is attempting to transition from a vendor of fragmented design tools to the essential infrastructure for the "design and make" lifecycle. While it currently enjoys industry-leading gross margins, its long-term success depends on migrating an entrenched user base into a unified, AI-powered cloud ecosystem before lower-cost mobile and cloud-native rivals can erode its core AutoCAD franchise.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Autodesk's integrated ecosystem strategy is threatened by revenue concentration because AutoCAD-based products still represent 25% of total net revenue (10-K Item 1A). If AI-driven disruption or "platform shifts" toward mobile computing weaken this specific entry point, Autodesk’s "digital pipeline" loses its primary feeder (10-K Item 1).

The transition to a direct transaction model is threatened by channel dependency. While Autodesk aims to "unlock long-term value" through direct billing, it remains reliant on 1,170 resellers (14A Proxy, 10-K Item 1). Management’s "sales optimization plan" introduces a "temporary risk to billings" that could stall the momentum of its cloud subscriptions (8-K).

Finally, the advantage of a global talent pool is threatened by international dependency. With 64% of revenue generated outside the U.S., the very R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies structure Autodesk uses to optimize costs is highly sensitive to the "trade protectionism and geopolitical instability" that can negate domestic growth (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

Autodesk’s 90.7% gross margin is the highest in its peer group, yet its 24.0% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin ranks only 4th of 6, trailing Adobe’s 37.8% (XBRL). This discrepancy suggests that while the software is inexpensive to deliver, the "sales optimization plan" and heavy R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies for AI are consuming a significant portion of profit before it reaches shareholders.

The 19% revenue growth in the most recent quarter (8-K) exceeds the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth of 17.5% (XBRL), indicating that momentum is accelerating despite a "challenging macro-economic environment" (14A Proxy). This acceleration is led by the AECO segment (+22%), which is growing faster than the core AutoCAD line (+17%), suggesting the shift toward integrated "lifecycle" solutions is gaining traction (8-K). Short interest stands at 3.0% of the float, reflecting a neutral market sentiment as investors wait to see if this growth can be sustained through the sales model transition.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 18.1x forward earnings, the market is pricing in ~7.0% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This is a modest discount to the peer median of 23.3x (XBRL). This valuation appears cautious given that Autodesk’s actual revenue growth (+17.5%) is significantly higher than the implied rate.

The discount is likely justified by Autodesk's lower net margin (15.9%) compared to peers like Adobe (30.3%) and Oracle (25.6%). However, Autodesk’s 2.6% buyback yield—the second-highest among its peers—provides a structural lift to EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric that the market may be underestimating (XBRL). If growth were to slow to 5.0%, the justified multiple would drop to 13.2x, suggesting the current price relies heavily on Autodesk maintaining its current double-digit trajectory (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the "sales optimization plan" causes fiscal 2027 billings to fall below the guided range of $8.48 billion – $8.58 billion (8-K).
Constructive if AECO revenue growth continues to accelerate relative to AutoCAD, proving that the "platform strategy" is successfully reducing product concentration risk (10-K Item 1).
Cautious if GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow operating margins fall below the 26% – 28% guidance, signaling that the costs of "agentic AI" and cloud migration are scaling faster than revenue (8-K).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: High switching costs created by an API-based architecture that integrates a vast network of third-party developers into Autodesk’s proprietary data model. Bottom Line: Autodesk is a high-quality platform trading at a discount due to execution risks in its sales model, offering a compelling entry point if it meets its fiscal 2027 billings targets.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Strategic Execution and Product Transition: Autodesk’s shift toward cloud-enabled technologies and new business models like "Flex" requires significant technical and financial investment. If these initiatives fail to achieve market acceptance or align with customer expectations, Autodesk risks decreased net revenue and profitability.
Concentration of Revenue: A substantial portion of net revenue is derived from a limited number of offerings, primarily AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT. In fiscal 2026 and 2025, these products (excluding collections) represented 25% and 26% of total net revenue, respectively; any factor harming these specific products would disproportionately impact financial results.
International Dependency: With 64% of net revenue generated outside the United States in fiscal 2026 and 2025, Autodesk is highly sensitive to global economic conditions, trade barriers, and currency exchange rate volatility, which can negatively impact financial results even if U.S. performance remains strong.
Competitive and Technological Disruption: The software industry’s low barriers to entry and rapid evolution—particularly regarding AI and machine learning—threaten to render existing products less competitive. Increased competition could force price reductions and lead to a loss of market share.
Restructuring and Operational Realignment: Autodesk’s 2026 Plan and January 2026 Plan to optimize its go-to-market organization and reallocate resources to AI and cloud initiatives carry risks of personnel attrition, reduced employee morale, and potential failure to realize forecasted cost savings.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Audit Committee Investigation: The internal investigation into free cash flow and non-GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow operating margin practices resulted in significant expenses for legal and professional fees and led to shareholder litigation, which continues to consume management time and resources.
Distribution Channel Stability: Autodesk relies on indirect channel sales, which accounted for 37% of revenue in fiscal 2026. The financial instability of distributors—such as TD Synnex, which accounted for 14% of total net revenue in fiscal 2026—could force Autodesk to write off accounts receivable or delay revenue recognition.
AI Integration Liability: As Autodesk incorporates AI into its offerings, it faces potential legal liability, regulatory investigations, and reputational harm if its AI tools produce inaccurate or biased content, or if the use of such tools leads to cybersecurity incidents.
FedRAMP Certification: Autodesk’s ability to compete in the U.S. federal government market depends on maintaining FedRAMP authorization; loss of this certification would inhibit its ability to contract with federal customers and could trigger breaches of existing public sector contracts.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Data Privacy and Localization: Autodesk is subject to evolving global regulations such as the GDPR (EU), PIPL (China), and CCPA/CPRA (U.S.). Non-compliance can result in severe penalties, such as the GDPR’s potential fine of up to 4% of annual global revenue or the PIPL’s fine of up to 5% of annual revenue.
Export and Import Controls: Autodesk must comply with complex U.S. and international export controls and economic sanctions. Violations, even by channel partners, can lead to government investigations, fines, and the loss of sales opportunities.
Intellectual Property Litigation: Autodesk faces the risk of infringement claims from competitors and patent assertion entities. Defending these claims is costly and could result in the need to enter into unfavorable royalty agreements or modify products.
Taxation and Pillar Two: Autodesk is subject to global tax changes, including the OECD’s "Pillar Two" global minimum tax of 15%. Challenges to intercompany transfer pricing or changes in tax laws could increase Autodesk’s effective tax rate and cash tax obligations.

4. Financial Impact Map

Strategic Execution Risk → Net Revenue → Failure to meet customer requirements or adapt business models may result in decreased net revenue. Concentration of Revenue (AutoCAD) → Total Net Revenue → 25% of total net revenue in fiscal 2026 is tied to AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT family products. International Dependency → Net Revenue → 64% of net revenue is subject to currency exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical risks. Distribution Channel Instability → Accounts Receivable → Insolvency of distributors like TD Synnex could force write-offs of accounts payable to Autodesk. Restructuring Plans → Operating Expenses → Costs and charges associated with the 2026 Plan and January 2026 Plan may exceed forecasts and negatively impact profitability.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Mar 2026	Jan 2026
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Oct 2025
14A	May 2025	—