AMCR

Materials

Amcor

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2017–2025(9yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$9.1B	$9.3B	$9.5B	$12.5B	$12.9B	$14.5B	$14.7B	$13.6B	$15.0B	+10.0%
Gross Profit	$1.9B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$2.8B	$2.7B	$2.7B	$2.8B	+4.5%
Gross Margin	21.0%	19.9%	19.0%	20.3%	21.2%	19.4%	18.5%	19.9%	18.9%	-1.0pp
Operating Income	$916.1M	$993.9M	$791.7M	$994.0M	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.2B	$1.0B	-16.9%
Operating Margin	10.1%	10.7%	8.4%	8.0%	10.3%	8.5%	10.3%	8.9%	6.7%	-2.2pp
Net Income	$564.0M	$575.2M	$430.2M	$612.2M	$939.0M	$805.0M	$1.0B	$730.0M	$511.0M	-30.0%
Net Margin	6.2%	6.2%	4.5%	4.9%	7.3%	5.5%	7.1%	5.4%	3.4%	-1.9pp
Free Cash Flow	$529.6M	$506.4M	$443.9M	$984.7M	$993.0M	$999.0M	$735.0M	$829.0M	$810.0M	-2.3%
FCF Margin	5.8%	5.4%	4.7%	7.9%	7.7%	6.9%	5.0%	6.1%	5.4%	-0.7pp
EPS (Diluted)	$0.48	$0.49	$0.36	$0.38	$0.60	$0.53	$0.70	$0.51	$0.32	-36.6%

Total Debt$13.8B

Cash & Equiv.$827.0M

Net Debt$13.0B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Amcor is attempting to buy its way out of a stagnant growth environment through its April 2025 merger with Berry Global. While the deal has successfully inflated the top line, it has fundamentally altered Amcor’s financial profile, swapping a stable balance sheet for a $14.1 billion debt burden and significant share dilution. Amcor is now a high-leverage bet on "circularity" and scale in an industry where organic volumes are currently shrinking.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Amcor’s primary strength—its global scale and breadth—is directly threatened by integration complexity following the Berry merger. Managing a combined entity of this size requires diverted management resources that could otherwise be used to defend market share against competitors like Ball Corporation or Crown Holdings (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, Amcor’s sustainability expertise and R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies efforts, backed by 7,000 patents, are threatened by its debt burden. With $14.1 billion in debt as of June 2025, the cash flow required for interest payments may crowd out the capital investment needed to maintain its technical lead in material science.

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a stark divergence between headline growth and underlying business health. While total net sales jumped 68% to $5,449 million in the most recent quarter due to the Berry acquisition, organic performance was weak: Global Flexible Packaging volumes fell 2%, and Global Rigid Packaging volumes dropped 6% (10-Q). This suggests that Amcor is using M&AM&AMergers & Acquisitions — the buying, selling, or combining of companies to mask a structural decline in consumer demand and "customer order volatility."

The market’s wariness is visible in the supplemental signals: short interest stands at 6.2% of the float, a notable level of bearish sentiment for a packaging giant. While the 6.2% dividend yield appears attractive, it must be weighed against a net leverage ratio of 17.0x (XBRL). Management’s decision to review strategic alternatives for businesses representing $2.5 billion in sales, including North American Beverages, confirms that the current portfolio is not producing the "attractive growth and margin profile" required to sustain this capital structure (8-K).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 9.5x forward earnings, Amcor trades at a significant discount to the peer median of 18.2x. According to the CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 0.5%. This valuation is "attractively valued" only if one believes the Berry integration will proceed flawlessly; however, the discount is justified by Amcor’s 3.0% net margin, which is thin compared to peers like Packaging Corp of America (10.3%).

If growth slows further or Amcor fails to capture the "upper end" of synergy expectations cited by CEO Peter Konieczny, the high leverage could lead to a credit rating downgrade. A downgrade would increase borrowing costs and potentially force a suspension of the dividend to preserve cash. For the current price to be "right," Amcor must prove it can return to organic volume growth while simultaneously paying down its $13.6 billion in net debt.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if organic volumes in the Rigid Packaging segment move from the current -6% to positive territory, signaling a recovery in consumer demand.
Constructive if the divestiture of the $2.5 billion North American Beverage business occurs at a premium multiple, allowing for immediate debt reduction.
Cautious if credit rating agencies move to a "negative" outlook, as Amcor's high leverage makes it hypersensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A massive intellectual property portfolio of 7,000 patents and global manufacturing scale that creates high entry barriers for smaller packaging firms.

Bottom Line: Amcor is a high-yield, high-leverage turnaround story where the 6.2% dividend is currently being funded by a balance sheet stretched to its limit by a transformational merger.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Integration Complexity: The merger with Berry is a complex, costly, and time-consuming process. Amcor faces the risk of failing to achieve anticipated synergies or efficiencies, which could lead to increased costs and decreased revenue.
Debt Burden: As of June 30, 2025, Amcor held $14.1 billion in total debt. This high leverage limits financial flexibility, increases vulnerability to economic downturns, and requires significant cash flow for principal and interest payments.
Credit Rating Sensitivity: Amcor’s credit ratings are subject to review by agencies based on financial performance and economic outlook. A downgrade could increase borrowing costs, reduce access to capital markets, and force management to take defensive actions like suspending dividends or selling assets.
Raw Material Volatility: Profitability is highly dependent on the cost of inputs like polymer resins, aluminum, and energy. Amcor may be unable to pass these cost fluctuations to customers through price adjustments in a timely manner, impacting margins.
Global Economic and Geopolitical Instability: With 25% of sales revenue derived from emerging markets in fiscal year 2025, Amcor is exposed to risks including trade barriers, currency devaluation, and political unrest, which can disrupt supply chains and inflate operating costs.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Goodwill Impairment: Following the merger, Amcor carries $18.7 billion in goodwill and other intangible assets. Changes in market multiples or expected cash flows could trigger non-cash impairment charges that would reduce the value of these assets on the balance sheet.
Customer Consolidation: Recent acquisitions among Amcor’s customers have increased business concentration, granting these larger entities greater leverage to demand lower prices, which threatens net profit margins.
Internal Control Integration: Amcor has excluded Berry from its fiscal year 2025 assessment of internal controls over financial reporting. Failure to successfully integrate Berry into these controls by fiscal year 2026 could lead to regulatory penalties or the need to restate financial information.
Captive Insurance Exposure: Amcor utilizes captive insurance companies in Singapore and Guernsey to manage risk. If claims exceed the reserves held by these entities, Amcor’s cash flow and financial condition could be materially impacted.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Pillar Two Global Minimum Tax: Amcor is subject to the OECD’s Pillar Two rule, which imposes a 15% global minimum tax. While Amcor does not currently expect a material impact, ongoing implementation by various countries could adversely affect the effective tax rate and tax expense.
PFAS and Environmental Regulation: Increasing restrictions on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws may force Amcor to modify production processes or products, leading to significant compliance costs.
Trade Policy and Tariffs: The U.S. administration’s April 2025 announcement of reciprocal tariffs has raised the weighted-average tariff rate to a 100-year high. Amcor may be unable to fully mitigate these costs or find alternative suppliers, impacting the cost of raw materials and production equipment.
Jurisdictional Legal Uncertainty: As a Jersey, Channel Islands company, Amcor’s corporate governance and shareholder rights differ from U.S. standards. Investors may face difficulties enforcing U.S. civil liabilities or judgments against Amcor or its non-U.S. directors.

4. Financial Impact Map

Integration Costs → Operating Expenses → Non-recurring costs associated with negotiating and completing the merger, including advisory fees, severance, and retention.

Debt Obligations → Cash Flows from Operations → $14.1 billion in debt requires significant cash for principal and interest, limiting funds for capital expenditures or shareholder returns.

Raw Material Price Fluctuations → Cost of Goods Sold / Gross Margin → Inability to pass through input cost increases (e.g., polymer resins, energy) in a timely manner impacts profitability.

Goodwill and Intangible Assets → Assets (Balance Sheet) → $18.7 billion balance subject to impairment testing; potential non-cash charges to results of operations.

Pillar Two Tax Rule → Income Tax Expense → Potential for increased tax expense and effective tax rate volatility as countries implement the 15% global minimum tax.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-Q	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
14A	Sep 2025	—
10-K	Aug 2025	Jun 2025