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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2010–2025(16yr)| Metric | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B | $16.0B | $15.5B | $16.5B | $17.0B | $15.2B | $12.3B | $12.9B | $14.4B | $14.4B | $13.1B | $15.6B | $17.5B | $20.1B | $19.7B | $20.4B | +3.5% |
| Gross Profit | $2.0B | $2.7B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $3.9B | +5.0% |
| Gross Margin | 14.8% | 16.6% | 17.1% | 17.6% | 18.6% | 19.8% | 29.0% | 20.3% | 18.9% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 19.1% | +0.3pp |
| Operating Income | $940.0M | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $2.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.2B | -35.7% |
| Operating Margin | 6.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.8% | -3.5pp |
| Net Income | $631.0M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $990.0M | $1.8B | $590.0M | $594.0M | $2.9B | $1.8B | $165.0M | -90.8% |
| Net Margin | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 0.8% | -8.3pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $642.0M | $747.0M | $773.0M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $999.0M | $1.1B | $770.0M | $782.0M | $843.0M | $829.0M | $611.0M | $419.0M | $990.0M | $1.6B | $1.5B | -5.4% |
| FCF Margin | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | -0.7pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.92 | $2.72 | $3.33 | $3.89 | $4.48 | $5.06 | $4.59 | $5.06 | $4.02 | $3.85 | $6.66 | $1.94 | $1.96 | $10.39 | $6.96 | $0.75 | -89.2% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Aptiv is currently a company in the middle of a structural divorce. By planning to spin off its commodity-sensitive Electrical Distribution Systems business into a new entity called Versigent by 2026, management is betting that Aptiv’s future lies in "intelligent systems" rather than traditional hardware. This pivot aims to shed the capital-intensive weight of legacy manufacturing to capture the higher valuations typically reserved for software and sensing technology providers.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Aptiv’s "industry-leading cost structure" is under constant assault from its own customers. As a Tier I supplier, Aptiv is subject to mandatory annual pricing "step-downs" of 1% to 3% (10-K Item 1A). This structural pricing pressure directly threatens the profitability of its "fully engineered systems" because if Aptiv cannot find internal savings faster than these cuts, its margins will erode. Furthermore, the "global scale" that Aptiv cites as a competitive advantage is a double-edged sword; its "just-in-time" delivery model means that a shortage of a single subcomponent can force a total production shutdown, turning its massive infrastructure into a liability (RISKS).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a business that is growing but struggling to retain profit. While Aptiv delivered 5% revenue growth in the most recent quarter (8-K), its net margin of 0.8% is the lowest in its peer group, trailing significantly behind diversified technology peers like Garmin at 22.9% (XBRL). This margin compression is likely a reflection of the "commodity cost volatility" in copper and resin that management cited as a vulnerability.
The 3.5% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth is a respectable performance in a cyclical industry, especially compared to General Motors, which saw revenue contract by 1.3%. However, Aptiv carries $6.0 billion in net debt, resulting in 3.9x leverage (CAPM analysis). With short interest at 3.9% of the float, there is a measurable segment of the market betting that the transition to a software-led model will be slower or more expensive than management suggests.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 7.6x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Aptiv is attractively valued relative to the peer median of 12.9x. The market is currently pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 0.5% (CAPM analysis). This appears overly cautious given that Aptiv is currently growing at 3.5% and maintains a healthy Free Cash Flow margin of 7.5% (XBRL).
The steep discount to peers is likely a "complexity discount" related to the upcoming spin-off and Aptiv's 0.8% net margin. For the current price to be "right," Aptiv would essentially have to stop growing entirely. If Aptiv can successfully navigate the Versigent spin-off and align its growth with broader GDP (2.5%), the justified multiple would rise to 9.6x, suggesting roughly 25% upside from current levels (CAPM analysis). The primary risk that could keep the valuation depressed is the continued cooling of demand for software-defined vehicles, which would undermine Aptiv's core investment thesis.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the Intelligent Systems segment shows immediate margin expansion following the 2026 rebranding and separation from the legacy EDS business.
- Cautious if net debt leverage exceeds 4.0x or if any of the top five OEM customers—who control 42% of revenue—announce significant production delays.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A unique integration of "edge-to-cloud" software and sensing hardware that allows global automakers to simplify complex vehicle architectures.
Bottom Line: Aptiv is a classic value play for investors who believe the transition to electrified and automated vehicles is inevitable, though they must endure thin margins and significant execution risk until the 2026 spin-off is complete.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Supply Chain Vulnerability: Aptiv relies on a "just-in-time" delivery model that is highly susceptible to disruptions from strikes, natural disasters, pandemics, or material shortages. A lack of any single subcomponent can force a total production shutdown, leading to increased operating costs and potential liability for customer losses.
- Cyclicality and Customer Concentration: Aptiv’s financial performance is tied to automotive OEM production schedules. The five largest customers accounted for approximately 42% of total net sales in 2025, meaning any decline in their production or market share directly reduces Aptiv’s revenue.
- Pricing Pressures: As a Tier I supplier, Aptiv faces annual pricing "step-downs" of one to three percent per year in supply agreements. If Aptiv cannot generate sufficient internal cost savings to offset these reductions, gross margins and profitability will decline.
- Competitive Landscape: The automotive technology market is highly competitive, with new entrants from outside the traditional industry. If Aptiv fails to innovate or accurately predict market shifts—such as the recent cooling of demand for software-defined vehicles—it risks losing market share and failing to realize returns on its investments.
- Separation Execution: The planned spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems business is complex and subject to market conditions. Aptiv has already incurred $178 million in separation-related costs in 2025, and the resulting independent companies may be less diversified and more vulnerable to economic shocks.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Wind River Impairment: Aptiv recorded a $648 million non-cash, pre-tax goodwill impairment charge in the third quarter of 2025 related to the Wind River reporting unit, driven by increased discount rates and reduced forecasted cash flows.
- Pension Obligations: Aptiv’s non-U.S. defined benefit pension plans and statutorily required retirement obligations totaled $423 million as of December 31, 2025, with primary underfunded plans located in Mexico and the United Kingdom.
- Geographic Exposure: Approximately 64% of net revenue in 2025 came from outside the U.S., exposing Aptiv to risks in regions like China and Mexico, including statutory minimum wage increases in Mexico and potential trade barriers.
- Product Obsolescence: Aptiv invests heavily in autonomous driving and high-voltage electrification; if these technologies do not gain consumer acceptance or if competitors develop superior solutions, Aptiv may be unable to redeploy invested capital, leading to losses.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Swiss Tax Residency: Following the 2024 reorganization, Aptiv is resident in Switzerland and subject to a 35% withholding tax on dividends and share repurchases, unless distributions are made from qualifying capital contribution reserves.
- Environmental Remediation: Aptiv maintains environmental reserves of approximately $4 million for the cleanup of known contamination, though actual costs could significantly exceed this amount if new sites are identified or regulations become more stringent.
- Trade Policy: The U.S. government announced tariffs of at least 10% on imported goods starting April 2, 2025. While the impact was not significant in 2025, future tariffs or retaliatory measures could materially affect results.
- Spin-off Tax Qualification: If the planned spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems business fails to qualify as a tax-free transaction under Section 355 of the Internal Revenue Code, Aptiv and its U.S. shareholders could face significant tax liabilities.
4. Financial Impact Map
Supply Chain Disruptions → Operating Costs / Profit Margins → Potential for material increases in operating costs and decreases in profit margins due to "catch-up" costs like overtime and premium freight. Customer Concentration → Net Sales → 42% of total net sales for 2025 were derived from the five largest customers; any production decline at these OEMs directly reduces revenue. Pricing Pressures → Gross Margin → Annual pricing step-downs of 1% to 3% require offsetting production cost savings to maintain current gross margin levels. Wind River Impairment → Goodwill / Net Income → $648 million non-cash, pre-tax charge recorded in 2025 due to fair value falling below carrying value. Separation Costs → Operating Expenses → $178 million in costs incurred during 2025 related to the planned spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems business.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Aptiv Q1 Revenue $5.1B +1%, EPS $1.71, Completes Versigent Business Separation
- ▸Q1 revenue $5.1B, up 1% adjusted year-over-year
- ▸Q1 EPS $1.71, up $0.02 year-over-year
- ▸Completed separation of Electrical Distribution Systems business into Versigent
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $752M; margins pressured by 180 bps FX and commodity headwinds
- ▸Non-automotive market revenue grew 9%; software and services revenue grew 10%
Aptiv launches Modulus modular connector platform for aerospace and defense applications
- ▸Launched Modulus modular connector platform for LEO satellites and unmanned aerial systems
- ▸Partnered with Winchester Interconnect for new connectivity platform
- ▸Stock trading at $69.44 with 4.2% one-day return
- ▸Fair value estimate cited at $100.81
- ▸Strategy focuses on software and high-growth advanced electronics to improve margins
Aptiv sets pricing for $1.37B cash tender offer for outstanding notes
- ▸Cash tender offer for outstanding notes up to $1.37B aggregate consideration
- ▸Early tender premium of $30 per $1,000 principal amount included
- ▸Settlement date expected on April 7, 2026
- ▸Pricing determined by fixed spread over U.S. Treasury reference yields
- ▸Offer subject to conditions including previously announced business spin-off
Aptiv increases cash tender offer for outstanding notes to $1.371 billion
- ▸Maximum aggregate consideration increased from $1.35B to $1.371B
- ▸Tender offer contingent on Versigent spin-off completion
- ▸Requires $1.7B special dividend from Versigent to Aptiv
- ▸Purchase priority based on specified series caps and acceptance levels
- ▸Early tender results processed by Global Bondholder Services Corporation
Aptiv Commences $1.35B Senior Notes Tender Offer; Wells Fargo Lowers PT to $95
- ▸Commenced cash tender offer for up to $1.35B in outstanding senior notes
- ▸Tender offer covers seven series of notes with maturities from 2032 to 2054
- ▸Wells Fargo lowered price target to $95 from $102, maintained Overweight rating
- ▸Debt management move precedes separation of Versigent business unit
- ▸Aptiv shares up 5% YTD, outperforming 3% peer average