BALL

Materials

Ball Corporation

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$6.8B	$6.7B	$7.6B	$8.6B	$8.7B	$8.5B	$8.6B	$8.0B	$9.1B	$11.0B	$11.6B	$11.5B	$11.8B	$13.8B	$15.3B	$14.0B	$11.8B	$13.2B	+11.6%
Gross Profit	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.4B	$2.6B	+5.6%
Gross Margin	16.5%	17.8%	14.8%	14.8%	15.1%	15.8%	16.7%	16.2%	15.7%	16.0%	15.5%	15.5%	20.9%	19.7%	16.8%	19.0%	20.7%	19.6%	-1.1pp
Operating Income	$580.6M	$653.8M	$764.6M	$836.9M	$790.5M	$795.4M	$838.6M	$605.2M	$463.0M	$802.0M	$935.0M	$932.0M	$1.0B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.3B	—	—	—
Operating Margin	8.5%	9.7%	10.0%	9.7%	9.0%	9.4%	9.8%	7.6%	5.1%	7.3%	8.0%	8.1%	8.5%	9.3%	7.9%	9.1%	—	—	—
Net Income	$319.5M	$387.9M	$468.0M	$444.0M	$426.5M	$435.0M	$498.0M	$302.9M	$266.0M	$380.0M	$453.0M	$536.0M	$582.0M	$878.0M	$732.0M	$711.0M	$4.0B	$915.0M	-77.2%
Net Margin	4.7%	5.8%	6.1%	5.1%	4.9%	5.1%	5.8%	3.8%	2.9%	3.5%	3.9%	4.7%	4.9%	6.4%	4.8%	5.1%	34.0%	7.0%	-27.1pp
Free Cash Flow	$342.6M	$401.8M	$265.0M	$504.6M	$548.2M	$460.7M	$621.7M	$478.8M	-$412.0M	$922.0M	$750.0M	$950.0M	$319.0M	$34.0M	-$1.4B	$818.0M	-$369.0M	$788.0M	+313.6%
FCF Margin	5.0%	6.0%	3.5%	5.8%	6.3%	5.4%	7.3%	6.0%	-4.5%	8.4%	6.4%	8.3%	2.7%	0.2%	-8.8%	5.8%	-3.1%	6.0%	+9.1pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.65	$2.04	$2.55	$2.63	$2.55	$2.73	$3.30	$1.99	$1.63	$1.05	$1.29	$1.66	$1.76	$2.65	$2.25	$2.23	$13.00	$3.30	-74.6%

Total Debt$7.0B

Cash & Equiv.$1.2B

Net Debt$5.8B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Ball is betting its future on the "substrate shift," positioning aluminum as the infinitely recyclable winner over plastic and glass. While recent results show this bet is paying off with robust volume growth and a swing back to profit, Ball Corporation is doing so while carrying a $7.01 billion debt burden that tethers its strategic ambitions to its interest payments (10-K Item 1A).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Ball’s "Strategic Partnerships" and long-term contracts are threatened by "Customer Concentration" because the loss of a single major beverage client could impair the cash flow needed to service its $7.01 billion debt (10-K Item 1). Furthermore, the "Operational Scale" advantage—which requires plants to run continuously to stay profitable—is vulnerable to "Raw Material Price Volatility." If aluminum prices spike and cannot be passed through in contracts, the high fixed costs of these massive facilities could quickly erode Ball Corporation's 5.4% net margin (Competitive Position, XBRL).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While revenue grew 11.6% and Ball Corporation returned 10.5% of its market cap to shareholders via buybacks, the underlying cash engine is tight. A 1.1% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin is thin for a company with $6.6 billion in net debt (XBRL). The jump from a $32 million loss in Q4 2024 to a $200 million profit in Q4 2025 suggests the "Ball Business System" is successfully managing costs, but the 46.9x net leverage ratio remains a glaring outlier compared to peers (Computed Valuation). For context, Packaging Corp of America (PKG) maintains a 10.3% net margin versus Ball's 5.4%, suggesting Ball faces much higher structural pressure to maintain its volume growth to stay ahead of its obligations.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 13.8x forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Ball trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 16.0x. The market is pricing in 3.4% long-term growth, which seems conservative given the 11.6% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth and high-single-digit volume increases reported in the most recent quarter (8-K). However, the discount is justified by the balance sheet: Ball’s $6.6 billion net debt is a significant burden on future flexibility. According to the sensitivity analysis, if growth slows to 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 12.3x (Computed Valuation). Investors are essentially getting a high-growth packaging leader at a discount, but they are paying for it by absorbing significant credit risk and exposure to a 10.6% cost of equity.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin fails to expand above 1.1%, as the current level is insufficient to rapidly de-lever the $7.01 billion debt load (XBRL).
Constructive if the "substrate shift" accelerates, evidenced by sustained double-digit volume growth in the North American beverage segment (8-K).
Cautious if aluminum price hedges prove insufficient to offset volatility, leading to a contraction in the 19.0% gross margin (Peer Benchmarking).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Global operational scale and long-term contracts that lock in the transition to sustainable aluminum packaging.

Bottom Line: Ball is a dominant circular-economy play with impressive volume momentum, but its massive debt load makes it a leveraged bet on stable commodity prices and customer loyalty.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Debt Burden: Ball Corporation held $7.01 billion in debt as of December 31, 2025, which limits financial flexibility, restricts the ability to obtain additional financing, and forces Ball Corporation to prioritize interest and principal payments over other business investments.
Customer Concentration: A majority of packaging products are sold to a limited number of major beverage, personal care, and household product companies; the loss of a key customer or an adverse change in supply agreements could significantly impact sales.
Raw Material Price Volatility: Ball Corporation is vulnerable to fluctuations in the price and availability of aluminum and other raw materials; some contracts do not allow for the pass-through of these costs, and hedging procedures may be insufficient to prevent material impacts on profitability.
Geographic and Currency Risk: Approximately 53 percent of consolidated net sales were derived from outside the U.S. in 2025, exposing Ball Corporation to political instability, global conflicts, and currency exchange rate fluctuations, particularly regarding the euro and emerging market currencies.
Competitive Pressures: The packaging industry is characterized by intense competition based on price, innovation, and sustainability; Ball Corporation faces potential loss of market share to substitute products like PET plastic bottles and glass containers, which could reduce profits and cash flows.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Goodwill Impairment: Ball Corporation carries a significant amount of goodwill on its balance sheet; a decline in the fair value of reporting units due to deteriorating market conditions could lead to an impairment charge that reduces net earnings and net assets.
Pension Obligations: Ball Corporation maintains defined benefit pension plans and participates in multi-employer plans; market declines or legislative changes could require additional cash contributions, reducing funds available for general corporate purposes.
Internal Control Risks: While no material weaknesses were identified as of December 31, 2025, any future failure to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting could lead to material misstatements and the potential restatement of financial results.
Joint Venture Control: Investments in joint ventures involve partners who may have control over operations; decisions made by these partners or obligations to provide additional capital could adversely affect Ball Corporation’s financial condition.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Tariff Classification: In September 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection challenged the tariff classification and duty rates of certain aluminum imports; Ball Corporation faces potential liability for additional duties, interest, and penalties.
PFAS Regulation: Various U.S. states and the EU are reviewing or have passed legislation restricting per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), requiring Ball Corporation to incur costs to convert existing coatings to PFAS-free alternatives.
Tax Law Changes: As a multinational entity, Ball Corporation is subject to complex and evolving tax regulations, including OECD and European Commission initiatives aimed at imposing minimum tax thresholds, which could impact earnings and cash flows.
Environmental Compliance: Ball Corporation is a designated potentially responsible party for the clean-up of several hazardous waste sites and faces increasing global regulation regarding greenhouse gas emissions, which may result in substantial compliance and remediation costs.

4. Financial Impact Map

Debt Burden → Cash Flow from Operations → $7.01 billion in debt requires significant cash for principal and interest payments, limiting funds for capital expenditures and shareholder returns. Customer Concentration → Consolidated Net Sales → Loss of a key customer or reduction in purchasing levels would directly reduce top-line revenue. Raw Material Price Volatility → Cost of Goods Sold / Profitability → Increases in aluminum costs that cannot be passed through to customers under fixed-price contracts directly compress margins. Geographic and Currency Risk → Net Assets / Earnings → Fluctuations in non-U.S. dollar currencies (primarily the euro and emerging market currencies) impact the valuation of net assets and reported income. Goodwill Impairment → Net Earnings / Net Assets → A decline in the fair value of reporting units would trigger an impairment charge, reducing both U.S. GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow net earnings and total net assets.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—