BKNG
CyclicalBooking Holdings
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.3B | $3.1B | $4.4B | $5.3B | $6.8B | $8.4B | $9.2B | $10.7B | $12.7B | $14.5B | $15.1B | $6.8B | $11.0B | $17.1B | $21.4B | $23.7B | $26.9B | +13.4% |
| Gross Profit | $956.0M | $1.3B | $1.9B | $3.1B | $4.1B | $5.7B | $7.6B | $8.6B | $10.3B | $12.4B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Margin | 50.7% | 53.9% | 61.9% | 70.7% | 77.6% | 84.1% | 89.8% | 93.1% | 96.0% | 98.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $289.5M | $470.8M | $786.8M | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.4B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $2.9B | $4.5B | $5.3B | $5.3B | -$631.0M | $2.5B | $5.1B | $5.8B | $7.6B | $8.8B | +16.8% |
| Operating Margin | 15.4% | 20.1% | 25.5% | 32.1% | 34.8% | 35.5% | 36.4% | 35.3% | 27.1% | 35.8% | 36.8% | 35.5% | -9.3% | 22.8% | 29.9% | 27.3% | 31.8% | 32.8% | +1.0pp |
| Net Income | $182.2M | $489.5M | $527.5M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $4.0B | $4.9B | $59.0M | $1.2B | $3.1B | $4.3B | $5.9B | $5.4B | -8.1% |
| Net Margin | 9.7% | 20.9% | 17.1% | 24.3% | 27.1% | 27.9% | 28.7% | 27.7% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 27.5% | 32.3% | 0.9% | 10.6% | 17.9% | 20.1% | 24.8% | 20.1% | -4.7pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $297.2M | $494.6M | $754.7M | — | — | — | — | — | $3.8B | $4.4B | $4.9B | $4.5B | -$201.0M | $2.5B | $6.2B | $7.0B | $7.9B | $9.1B | +15.1% |
| FCF Margin | 15.8% | 21.2% | 24.5% | — | — | — | — | — | 35.0% | 34.5% | 33.7% | 29.8% | -3.0% | 23.0% | 36.2% | 32.8% | 33.3% | 33.8% | +0.5pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.74 | $9.88 | $10.35 | $20.63 | $27.66 | $36.11 | $45.67 | $49.45 | $42.65 | $46.86 | $83.26 | $111.82 | $1.44 | $28.17 | $76.35 | $117.40 | $172.69 | $165.57 | -4.1% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Booking Holdings is a high-margin cash machine currently trading at a discount because investors fear its "gatekeeper" status is under siege by both regulators and generative AI. Despite these structural threats, Booking Holdings is delivering 13.4% revenue growth—the fastest among its peers—while converting nearly 35 cents of every dollar into free cash flow (XBRL).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "Connected Trip" vision, which aims to create a seamless, direct relationship with travelers, is threatened by AI-native search engines and maps. These platforms can satisfy traveler intent directly, bypassing Booking Holdings’ ecosystem and forcing Booking Holdings into expensive bidding wars for traffic, which risks compressing its industry-leading 34.9% operating margin (Risks). Furthermore, Booking Holdings’s "Global Scale" is being challenged by EU "gatekeeper" designations under the Digital Markets Act. These regulations impose compliance costs and operational restrictions that do not apply to all competitors, potentially neutralizing Booking Holdings’ network effects in its most established markets (Competitive Position).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Booking Holdings’ financials reveal a level of capital efficiency that its traditional hotel peers cannot match; its 34.9% operating margin is more than double Marriott’s 16.7% (Peer Benchmarking). While management highlights a "Transformation Program" that achieved $550 million in annual savings, the underlying driver of value is the shift toward merchant revenues, where Booking Holdings facilitates payments directly (Business). The 16% revenue growth in the most recent quarter represents an acceleration over the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter average of 13.4%, suggesting that the expansion of the "Genius" loyalty program across more travel verticals is successfully capturing market share (Recent Results). Supplemental signals reinforce this stability: short interest is low at 2.6% of the float, and Booking Holdings is returning 4.3% of its market cap to shareholders via buybacks (Yahoo Finance).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 14.0x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Booking Holdings trades at a 39% discount to the peer median of 22.8x (Peer Benchmarking). At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 4.1% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This appears cautious for a company that grew quarterly revenue by 16% and has guided for low double-digit growth through 2026 (Recent Results). This discount is likely a "regulatory tax" reflecting uncertainty over EU mandates. However, given that Booking Holdings maintains the highest FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin in its peer group (34.9%) and a dominant 22.6% Return on Assets, Booking Holdings is attractively valued for investors who believe its network effects can withstand AI-driven search disruption.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if marketing efficiency drops, signaled by a contraction in operating margins as search competition from AI-native platforms inflates customer acquisition costs.
- Constructive if 2026 revenue growth exceeds the "low double digits" guidance, proving the "Connected Trip" and "Genius" loyalty programs are successfully insulating the business from third-party search dependency.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A massive two-sided network effect powered by a global payments platform and a loyalty ecosystem that spans five major travel brands.
Bottom Line: Booking Holdings is a dominant, highly profitable market leader that is currently priced as if its growth is about to stall, making it a compelling value play in the travel sector.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Volatility: Economic uncertainty and political instability can lead to lower consumer discretionary spending, which negatively impacts transaction growth, cancellation rates, and ADRs.
- Competitive Pressure from AI and Tech Platforms: Large technology companies integrating generative AI (Gen AI) into search engines and maps may disintermediate Booking Holdings by satisfying user intent without directing traffic to its platforms, thereby reducing direct bookings.
- Marketing Efficiency and ROI: Performance marketing costs are variable and dependent on the bidding environment; increased competition for search placement—particularly from AI-impacted results—can inflate costs-per-click and reduce marketing efficiency.
- Dependence on Third-Party Distribution: A significant portion of traffic is derived from third-party platforms like Google; changes to their algorithms, ranking methodologies, or AI-generated content placement can reduce service visibility and increase customer acquisition costs.
- Growth and Expansion Challenges: Expanding into new markets is costly and difficult due to local competitors, unique preferences, and regulatory restrictions (e.g., in China), which can require significant investment and negatively impact profit margins.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Connected Trip Strategy: The long-term strategy to commercialize the "Connected Trip" requires increased investments that may not achieve expected returns, potentially adversely impacting results of operations until success is realized.
- Alternative Accommodations Liability: Booking Holdings faces risks related to injury, death, or criminal activity at alternative accommodation properties; while it facilitates partner liability insurance up to $1.0 million per occurrence, Booking Holdings retains financial risk for amounts exceeding policy limits.
- Transformation Program Execution: Booking Holdings may fail to achieve estimated cost savings or realize expected benefits from its "Transformation Program," which includes workforce reductions and process modernization.
- Talent Retention: Competition for software engineers and AI professionals is intense; inflationary pressure on compensation and hybrid work policies may increase personnel expenses and hinder the ability to innovate.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA): As a designated "gatekeeper" and "Very Large Online Platform," Booking Holdings faces increased compliance costs, annual supervisory fees, and mandatory audits. These regulations restrict parity arrangements and data usage across services, which may not apply to smaller competitors.
- Taxation and Audits: Booking Holdings is subject to various global taxes, including digital services taxes calculated as a percentage of revenue. It faces potential incremental liabilities from tax audits and the risk of losing the "Innovation Box Tax" benefit in the Netherlands, which currently taxes qualifying innovative income at 9% rather than the 25.8% statutory rate.
- Data Privacy Compliance: Handling large volumes of personally identifiable data subjects Booking Holdings to regulations like GDPR and CCPA. Violations of GDPR can result in fines of up to 20 million Euros or 4% of annual global revenue.
- Travel Transaction Taxes: Various jurisdictions have initiated litigation against online travel companies to collect historical and prospective travel transaction taxes; adverse outcomes could result in significant liabilities for past bookings.
4. Financial Impact Map
Macroeconomic/Geopolitical Volatility → Revenue and Results of Operations → Lower ADRs and transaction growth rates directly reduce top-line performance. Competitive Pressure/Marketing Efficiency → Profit Margins → Increased costs-per-click and the need for discounts to remain competitive reduce the percentage of revenue retained from gross bookings. Third-Party Distribution/Algorithm Changes → Customer Acquisition Costs → Reduced visibility on search platforms forces higher spending to maintain traffic levels. Transformation Program → Profitability → Charges related to organizational changes and system modernization reduce profitability in the periods incurred. Taxation/Innovation Box Tax → Effective Tax Rate → Loss of the 9% preferential rate on qualifying income would substantially increase the effective tax rate and reduce net income.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Booking Holdings executes 25-for-1 stock split and increases dividend payout
- ▸Executed 25-for-1 stock split in early April 2026
- ▸Increased dividend payout alongside stock split
- ▸Appointed former NXP CEO Kurt Sievers to board of directors
- ▸Director Lynn Radakovich announced planned retirement
- ▸Projected 2029 revenue of $35.2B and earnings of $10.4B
Booking Holdings Announces 25-for-1 Stock Split Effective April 2, 2026
- ▸25-for-1 forward stock split effective April 2, 2026
- ▸Split-adjusted trading begins April 6, 2026
- ▸Q4 2025 revenue $6.35B, +16.1% YoY, beating $6.14B estimates
- ▸FY 2025 free cash flow $9.09B, +15.1% YoY
- ▸Q1 2026 dividend increased 9.4% to $10.50 per share
Booking Holdings Q4 results beat estimates; $2.1B shares repurchased, $10.50 dividend declared
- ▸Q4 room nights, gross bookings, and adjusted EBITDA exceeded analyst estimates
- ▸Repurchased 416,024 shares for $2.1B between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025
- ▸Declared quarterly dividend of $10.50 per share, payable March 31, 2026
- ▸Fair value estimate trimmed 0.3% to $5,802.23 per share
- ▸Partnered with Thomas Cook India and SOTC Travel for corporate travel integration
Booking Holdings Targets 8% Revenue Growth and 15% EPS Growth in Medium Term
- ▸Targeting 8% top-line growth and 15% EPS growth in medium term
- ▸US listings increased 8% YoY to 8.6 million
- ▸Focusing on generative AI to enhance customer service and reduce costs
- ▸Expanding US market share via performance marketing and B2B partnerships
- ▸Maintaining strategic AI partnership with Google
Consumer Internet Q4 Earnings Roundup: Booking Revenue $6.35B Beats, LendingTree Surges 9.7%
- ▸Booking Q4 revenue $6.35B, +16% YoY, beat estimates by 3.6%
- ▸LendingTree Q4 revenue $319.7M, +22.2% YoY, beat estimates by 11.5%
- ▸Robinhood Q4 revenue $1.28B, +26.5% YoY, missed estimates by 3.9%
- ▸Consumer internet sector Q4 revenue beat consensus estimates by 1.7%
- ▸Consumer internet sector Q4 revenue guidance 3.7% below analyst expectations
Booking Holdings Q4 Revenue $6.3B +16%, FY2025 Adjusted EPS $228.06 +22%
- ▸Q4 revenue $6.3B (+16% YoY), gross bookings $43.0B (+16% YoY)
- ▸Q4 room nights 285 million, up 9% YoY
- ▸FY2025 adjusted EPS $228.06, up 22% YoY
- ▸Transformation Program delivered $550M in annualized savings
- ▸FY2025 capital returns included $6.4B in buybacks and $10.50/share dividend
Booking Holdings Q4 EPS $48.80 beats estimates, revenue $6.35B up 16.1% YoY
- ▸Q4 EPS $48.80, beat consensus by 1.18%, +16.1% YoY
- ▸Q4 revenue $6.35B, beat consensus by 3.87%, +16.1% YoY
- ▸Room nights 285 million, +9% YoY, exceeded guidance by 300 bps
- ▸Merchant gross bookings $30.8B, +27.2% YoY, representing 72% of total
- ▸Airline tickets booked 18 million, +27.7% YoY
Booking.com partners with Thomas Cook India to expand corporate travel accommodation services
- ▸Partnership integrates 31 million global listings into Thomas Cook and SOTC booking tools
- ▸Features include India-specific controls and GST-compliant invoicing for corporate clients
- ▸Strategic push to capture higher-value corporate travel market share in India
- ▸Projects $32.4B revenue and $9.5B earnings by 2028
- ▸Mizuho recently named Booking Holdings as top pick in internet sector
Booking Holdings Q4 merchant revenue +27.4% to $4.25B, mix reaches 72% of bookings
- ▸Merchant revenue +27.4% YoY to $4.25B in Q4
- ▸Merchant gross bookings mix reached 72% of total, up from 65% YoY
- ▸Q1 2026 merchant revenue consensus estimate $3.5B, +19.8% YoY
- ▸Payments infrastructure expanded to over 100 payment methods and 50 currencies
- ▸Strategic shift prioritizes merchant model to drive cross-selling and platform control
Booking Holdings Announces 25-for-1 Stock Split, Dividend Increase Following Strong Q4 Earnings
- ▸Announced 25-for-1 stock split
- ▸Reported strong Q4 2025 financial results
- ▸Increased dividend payout to shareholders
- ▸Current share price $4,293.02 vs. estimated fair value $5,465.03
- ▸90-day share price return of 21.04%