CF
MaterialsCF Industries
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Market Data
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $3.9B | $2.6B | $4.0B | $6.1B | $6.1B | $5.5B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.1B | $6.5B | $11.2B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $7.1B | +19.3% |
| Gross Profit | $670.0M | $1.2B | $839.4M | $1.2B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $2.5B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $840.0M | $430.0M | $917.0M | $1.2B | $801.0M | $2.4B | $5.9B | $2.5B | $2.1B | $2.7B | +32.5% |
| Gross Margin | 24.3% | 31.2% | 32.2% | 29.7% | 47.5% | 51.0% | 46.0% | 37.5% | 35.9% | 22.8% | 10.4% | 20.7% | 25.6% | 19.4% | 36.5% | 52.4% | 38.4% | 34.6% | 38.5% | +3.8pp |
| Operating Income | $601.6M | $1.2B | $679.8M | $895.7M | $2.8B | $3.0B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $1.2B | $134.0M | $229.0M | $766.0M | $1.0B | $623.0M | $1.7B | $5.4B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $2.3B | +31.7% |
| Operating Margin | 21.8% | 29.3% | 26.1% | 22.6% | 45.8% | 48.5% | 44.1% | 49.9% | 27.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 21.9% | 15.1% | 26.4% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 29.4% | 32.5% | +3.1pp |
| Net Income | $372.7M | $684.6M | $365.6M | $349.2M | $1.5B | $1.9B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $734.1M | -$158.0M | $450.0M | $428.0M | $646.0M | $432.0M | $1.3B | $3.9B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.8B | +21.7% |
| Net Margin | 13.5% | 17.5% | 14.0% | 8.8% | 25.2% | 31.5% | 28.0% | 30.3% | 17.0% | -4.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% | +0.5pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $585.0M | $496.8M | $446.1M | $936.3M | — | — | — | -$387.5M | -$1.3B | -$1.6B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $922.0M | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $1.8B | +2.8% |
| FCF Margin | 21.2% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 23.6% | — | — | — | -8.2% | -29.3% | -43.3% | 28.0% | 24.3% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 36.1% | 30.4% | 34.1% | 29.5% | 25.4% | -4.1pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.56 | $12.13 | $7.42 | $5.34 | $21.98 | $28.59 | $24.74 | $27.08 | $2.96 | $-1.19 | $1.53 | $1.24 | $2.23 | $1.47 | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 | +33.1% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
CF Industries is currently operating as a high-margin cash engine, converting a temporary North American natural gas price advantage into a permanent structural shift toward decarbonized ammonia. By maintaining 25% net margins—levels that dwarf its diversified chemical peers—CF Industries is simultaneously funding a $1.3 billion capital program and shrinking its share count by 10% in a single year (8-K, XBRL).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "unmatched distribution and logistics network" that CF Industries cites as a core strength is fundamentally threatened by its operational concentration; because the Donaldsonville complex represents 40% of total ammonia capacity, any localized outage or weather event there would effectively paralyze CF Industries's ability to utilize its North American terminal network (10-K Item 1, Risks). Furthermore, the strategic push into low-carbon ammonia faces a major hurdle in "global price competition." CF Industries must compete against state-owned entities that may ignore carbon-intensity to undercut prices, potentially rendering CF Industries's expensive decarbonization investments uncompetitive in traditional fertilizer markets (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
CF Industries is a significant outlier in the chemicals sector, posting 19.3% revenue growth while peers like Dow and LyondellBasell saw contractions of 7.0% and 25.2% respectively (Peer Benchmarking). This growth is paired with an 8.8% buyback yield, the highest in its peer group, suggesting management sees more value in its own equity than in aggressive horizontal expansion. However, a 5.1-day-to-cover short interest (8.8% of float) indicates market skepticism regarding the sustainability of these results. This caution likely stems from the "ongoing outage" at the Yazoo City Complex, which is expected to cap 2026 production at 9.5 million tons, suggesting that the recent growth surge may be nearing a cyclical ceiling (8-K, Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 15.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, CF Industries trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 19.3x, despite leading the group in revenue growth, operating margin (31.1%), and FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (34.7%) (Peer Benchmarking). The market is currently pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 2.0% (CAPM analysis). This valuation is conservative; share retirements alone provided an 8.8% yield in 2025, meaning the underlying business needs very little organic growth to satisfy current market expectations. However, the discount is justified by "energy price sensitivity." As seen with the closure of the Ince facility in the UK, CF Industries’s profitability is entirely dependent on North American natural gas remaining cheaper than global benchmarks—a factor largely outside of management's control (10-K Item 1).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if the energy cost differential between North America and the rest of the world narrows, as this would erode the "advantaged production" that supports CF Industries's 36.5% gross margins (10-K Item 1, XBRL).
- Constructive if the Donaldsonville carbon capture project results in a measurable price premium for low-carbon ammonia or if 45Q tax credit yields exceed internal projections (10-K Item 1, 8-K).
- Cautious if capital expenditures for the Blue Point joint venture exceed the projected $600 million, which would signal a breakdown in CF Industries's "disciplined capital stewardship" (8-K).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Scale-driven cost leadership in nitrogen production supported by a captive, continent-wide logistics network that competitors cannot easily replicate.
Bottom Line: CF Industries is a highly efficient cash machine currently priced as a stagnant commodity play, offering an attractive entry point for investors betting on the long-term viability of the low-carbon hydrogen economy.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Industry Cyclicality and Oversupply: CF Industries’ operating results fluctuate based on global nitrogen supply and demand. Periods of oversupply, such as the 2015–2017 period where average selling prices declined 34% from $314 to $207 per ton, directly reduce profit margins and may necessitate inventory write-downs or production curtailments.
- Global Price Competition: CF Industries faces intense competition from state-owned and government-subsidized entities that may have access to lower-cost natural gas, financing, and tax incentives. This competition, combined with the commodity nature of nitrogen products, forces CF Industries to compete primarily on delivered price.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: As the principal raw material and fuel source, natural gas costs determine the profitability of CF Industries’ nitrogen products. While North American gas has historically been cheaper than in other regions, any erosion of this energy cost differential—due to increased LNG exports or shifts in global gas supply—would materially harm financial performance.
- Operational Concentration: CF Industries relies on a limited number of manufacturing complexes. The Donaldsonville complex alone represented approximately 40% of CF Industries’s ammonia production capacity as of December 31, 2025. Any suspension of operations at this or other key sites would severely impact the ability to fulfill commitments.
- Adverse Weather and Climate Change: Extreme weather events, including hurricanes and floods, threaten CF Industries’ facilities and logistics. Such events can disrupt production, increase natural gas costs, and delay shipping, while also impacting agricultural customers' ability to apply fertilizer, thereby reducing seasonal demand.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Low-Carbon Ammonia Strategy Execution: CF Industries is investing heavily in low-carbon ammonia projects, such as the Blue Point complex, which utilize autothermal reforming (ATR) technology at scales not previously proven for ammonia production. Failure of these technologies to perform as expected could lead to cost overruns and project delays.
- Dependency on Third-Party CO2 Infrastructure: The viability of CF Industries’ low-carbon ammonia strategy depends on third-party providers to develop and operate CO2 pipelines and Class VI sequestration wells. The current indefinite moratorium on new Class VI well applications in Louisiana poses a direct risk to these projects.
- Forward Sales Program Exposure: CF Industries’ forward sales programs, which improve liquidity through upfront cash payments, can result in lower profit margins during periods of rising fertilizer prices compared to spot market sales.
- Legacy Liability Exposure: CF Industries has been named in product liability actions related to products allegedly sold or manufactured by entities acquired over a decade ago, such as the 2022 litigation involving the herbicide paraquat and Terra Industries Inc.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- GHG Emissions and Carbon Pricing: CF Industries is subject to evolving GHG regulations, including Canadian carbon pricing on excess emissions and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These regulations may increase operating costs or require capital improvements.
- Environmental Cleanup Liability: Under CERCLA and similar laws, CF Industries faces joint and several liability for environmental cleanup costs at current or previously owned facilities, regardless of fault.
- Security and Anti-Terrorism Regulations: Due to the toxic nature of ammonia and its potential use as an explosive, CF Industries is subject to stringent security laws, such as the Maritime Transportation Security Act. New or more restrictive regulations could limit the sale of certain products or increase compliance costs.
- Tax Credit Uncertainty: The ability of CF Industries to realize anticipated tax credits for low-carbon ammonia projects is subject to legislative changes, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, and final guidance from the IRS.
4. Financial Impact Map
Industry Cyclicality → Net Sales and Inventory Value → 34% decline in average selling price per ton observed in 2015–2017 period. Natural Gas Price Volatility → Cost of Goods Sold → North American natural gas comprises a significant portion of total production costs. Operational Concentration → Revenue and Production Capacity → Donaldsonville complex represents approximately 40% of ammonia production capacity. Low-Carbon Ammonia Strategy → Capital Expenditures and Net Income → Significant investments in clean energy strategy may not yield expected returns if markets fail to develop. Indebtedness → Cash Flow and Interest Expense → $3.25 billion of total funded indebtedness as of December 31, 2025, impacts earnings and cash flow through debt service obligations.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
UBS Raises CF Industries Price Target to $140, Citing 77% Surge in Global Urea Prices
- ▸UBS raised CF price target to $140 from $97
- ▸Global urea prices +77% due to supply disruptions
- ▸CF trading at 14.28x P/E, below chemical sector average
- ▸$1.7 billion remaining on $2 billion share buyback program
- ▸Middle East conflict tightening global nitrogen supply
CF Industries Q4 EPS $2.99 beats $2.50 estimate; revenue $1.87B up 22.8% YoY
- ▸Q4 adjusted EPS $2.99, beating consensus estimate of $2.50
- ▸Net sales $1.87B, up 22.8% YoY, exceeding $1.79B estimate
- ▸Ammonia segment sales $708M, up 23.8% YoY
- ▸UAN segment sales $564M, up 51.6% YoY
- ▸Higher average selling prices driven by strong global nitrogen demand
CF Industries Q4 Revenue $1.87B Beats Estimates; DOJ Antitrust Probe Initiated
- ▸Q4 revenue $1.87B, beating estimates by 7%
- ▸Gross margin expanded to 40.9% from 34.4% YoY
- ▸FY 2025 net income $1.455B, up 19% YoY
- ▸Received $169.5M cash settlement from Orica on March 16
- ▸DOJ antitrust probe creates legal overhang despite 59% YTD share price surge
CF Industries shares rise 11.9% on fertilizer supply tightness and low-cost gas advantage
- ▸Shares rose 11.9% amid global nitrogen market tightening and Middle East supply disruptions
- ▸Company benefits from access to relatively low-cost US natural gas
- ▸Facing ongoing Department of Justice scrutiny regarding fertilizer pricing practices
- ▸Projected 2028 revenue of $6.4B and earnings of $1.0B
- ▸Launched low-carbon fertilizer pilot program in partnership with POET
CF Industries Q4 EPS $2.59 beats by $0.11, FY revenue +19.1% to $7.08B
- ▸Q4 EPS $2.59 beat consensus estimates of $2.48
- ▸FY revenue $7.08B, up 19.1% year-over-year
- ▸Q4 gross margin expanded to 38.5% from 34.6% prior year
- ▸FY adjusted EBITDA grew to $2.89B from $2.28B
- ▸20% of European ammonia and 25% of urea capacity currently curtailed
CF Industries shares rally 13.2% on nitrogen fertilizer price surge amid supply disruptions
- ▸CF shares rose 13.2% to $136 on high trading volume
- ▸Nitrogen fertilizer prices surged due to Strait of Hormuz supply concerns
- ▸Upcoming Q4 EPS expected at $2.12, +14.6% YoY
- ▸Upcoming Q4 revenue expected at $1.74B, +4.7% YoY
- ▸Consensus EPS estimate for CF revised 9.1% higher over last 30 days