CHD

Defensive

Church & Dwight

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$2.4B	$2.5B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.9B	$3.2B	$3.3B	$3.4B	$3.5B	$3.8B	$4.1B	$4.4B	$4.9B	$5.2B	$5.4B	$5.9B	$6.1B	$6.2B	+1.6%
Gross Profit	$971.7M	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$2.8B	-0.5%
Gross Margin	40.1%	43.7%	44.7%	44.2%	44.2%	45.0%	44.1%	44.5%	45.5%	45.8%	44.4%	45.5%	45.2%	43.6%	41.9%	44.1%	45.7%	44.7%	-1.0pp
Operating Income	$340.3M	$412.9M	$445.0M	$492.6M	$545.1M	$622.2M	$641.2M	$674.2M	$724.2M	$732.7M	$791.7M	$840.2M	$1.0B	$1.1B	$597.8M	$1.1B	$807.1M	$1.1B	+33.5%
Operating Margin	14.0%	16.4%	17.2%	17.9%	18.7%	19.5%	19.4%	19.9%	20.7%	19.4%	19.1%	19.3%	21.0%	20.8%	11.1%	18.0%	13.2%	17.4%	+4.2pp
Net Income	$195.2M	$243.5M	$270.7M	$309.6M	$349.8M	$394.4M	$413.9M	$410.4M	$459.0M	$743.4M	$568.6M	$615.9M	$785.9M	$827.5M	$413.9M	$755.6M	$585.3M	$736.8M	+25.9%
Net Margin	8.1%	9.7%	10.5%	11.3%	12.0%	12.3%	12.6%	12.1%	13.1%	19.7%	13.7%	14.1%	16.1%	15.9%	7.7%	12.9%	9.6%	11.9%	+2.3pp
Free Cash Flow	$237.8M	$265.6M	$364.6M	$361.2M	$449.1M	$432.5M	—	—	$605.5M	$636.5M	$703.2M	$790.8M	$891.4M	$875.0M	$706.4M	$807.1M	$976.4M	$1.1B	+11.9%
FCF Margin	9.8%	10.5%	14.1%	13.1%	15.4%	13.5%	—	—	17.3%	16.9%	17.0%	18.1%	18.2%	16.9%	13.1%	13.8%	16.0%	17.6%	+1.6pp
EPS (Diluted)	$2.78	$3.41	$3.75	$2.12	$2.45	$2.79	$3.01	$3.07	$1.75	$2.90	$2.27	$2.44	$3.12	$3.32	$1.68	$3.05	$2.37	$3.02	+27.4%

Total Debt$2.2B

Cash & Equiv.$409.0M

Net Debt$1.8B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Church & Dwight is essentially a specialized chemical company successfully masquerading as a diversified consumer staples giant. By leveraging its foundational baking soda technology across 70% of its sales, Church & Dwight has carved out a profitable niche, yet it now faces a strategic pivot as it sheds underperforming business lines like vitamins to protect its "power brand" core.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Church & Dwight’s primary strength—the dominance of its seven "power brands"—is directly threatened by intense market competition from private labels and larger rivals like P&G (10-K Item 1A). Because these brands represent 70% of profits, any loss of shelf space to a retailer’s own brand would have a disproportionate impact on the bottom line. Furthermore, Church & Dwight’s reliance on Walmart, which accounts for 23% of net sales, creates a structural vulnerability; if Walmart shifts its strategy toward private labels or demands higher pricing concessions, Church & Dwight has limited leverage to protect its margins (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While management touts "industry-leading results," the financial data reveals a significant efficiency gap compared to peers. Church & Dwight’s free cash flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin of 4.1% is the lowest in its peer group, trailing significantly behind competitors like Kraft Heinz (13.4%) and Kimberly-Clark (12.3%). This suggests that while Church & Dwight is successful at generating revenue, it is less efficient at converting those sales into actual cash for shareholders.

Church & Dwight's growth trajectory is also in a state of transition. While trailing twelve-month revenue growth was a modest 1.6%, the most recent quarter showed a 3.9% increase in net sales (8-K). This divergence is largely explained by the strategic exit of the vitamin and "Flawless" businesses, which caused a 21.1% drop in reported EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric but allowed adjusted EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric to rise 11.7% (8-K). This indicates that Church & Dwight is trading short-term volume for better-quality earnings in its "power brand" segments. Market sentiment appears cautious, with short interest sitting at 4.9% of the float (Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 25.1x, Church & Dwight trades at a 67% premium to the peer median of 15.0x. The market is currently pricing in approximately 2.9% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This valuation appears rich when considering Church & Dwight's peer-bottom FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin and its $1.9 billion net debt position. While management expects volume-driven organic sales growth of 3% to 4% in 2026 (8-K), which would support the current price, any deceleration would be costly. According to sensitivity analysis, if growth slows to 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 23.0x, representing roughly 8% downside (CAPM analysis). The primary risk that could force a de-rating is Church & Dwight's inability to pass on volatile raw material costs, such as surfactants and resins, to consumers (10-K Item 1A).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if organic sales growth consistently exceeds the 3-4% guidance range, proving that the "power brand" focus can offset the loss of divested business lines (8-K).
Cautious if FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margins continue to lag the peer group median, or if customer concentration with Walmart increases beyond the current 23%, further weakening Church & Dwight's pricing power (10-K Item 1A).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Proprietary baking soda technology and a concentrated "power brand" portfolio that accounts for 70% of net sales and profits.

Bottom Line: Church & Dwight is a resilient staple with a high-quality brand core, but its current valuation premium is difficult to justify given its weak cash-flow conversion relative to peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Intense Market Competition: Church & Dwight faces pressure from larger competitors like P&G and Colgate-Palmolive, as well as retailers’ private label brands. This competition forces price reductions that may not offset manufacturing cost increases, threatening market share and gross margins.
Customer Concentration: Walmart accounted for approximately 23% of net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023. The top four customers collectively represented 44% of net sales in 2025, making Church & Dwight highly vulnerable to changes in these retailers' shelf-space strategies or private label expansions.
Raw Material and Energy Volatility: Fluctuations in the costs of surfactants, paper products, and resin-based components, alongside energy and shipping costs, directly impact profit margins. If Church & Dwight cannot pass these costs to consumers, gross margins suffer.
Shifting Retail Environment: The transition toward e-commerce and alternative retail channels (such as subscription services and hard discounters) forces retailers to pass higher operating costs onto manufacturers, potentially impacting net sales and profitability.
Debt Obligations: With $2,205.0 million in total consolidated indebtedness as of December 31, 2025, Church & Dwight must dedicate significant cash flow to debt service, which reduces funds available for capital expenditures, acquisitions, and stock repurchases.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Power Brand Dependency: Seven "power brands"—ARM & HAMMER, OXICLEAN, TOUCHLAND, BATISTE, WATERPIK, THERABREATH, and HERO—represent approximately 70% of net sales and profits, making Church & Dwight’s financial health highly sensitive to the reputation and performance of these specific lines.
Acquisition and Divestiture Execution: Church & Dwight’s strategy of pursuing acquisitions and divestitures (such as the 2025 exit from Flawless, Spinbrush, and Waterpik showerhead businesses) carries risks of integration failure, unanticipated costs, and potential impairment charges on intangible assets.
Manufacturing Concentration: The production of certain products is concentrated in limited facilities; any disruption at these sites—due to labor shortages, technical challenges, or equipment failure—can lead to product shortages and lost sales.
Turnover and Labor Costs: Total plant turnover reached 33% in 2025, exceeding the industry standard of 29.5%, which increases operating expenses and risks business disruption.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Product Liability and Recalls: Church & Dwight is subject to potential product liability claims and recalls, particularly for regulated items like condoms, dietary supplements, and over-the-counter medicines. Insurance coverage may be insufficient to cover these costs.
Sustainability Compliance: New regulations, such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and various state-level Extended Producer Responsibility programs, increase compliance costs and operational complexity.
Data Privacy: Church & Dwight must comply with evolving global privacy laws, including the CCPA and GDPR. Failure to protect sensitive consumer and employee data can result in significant fines (up to 4% of worldwide annual turnover under GDPR) and reputational damage.
Tax Disputes: Church & Dwight is subject to audits by tax authorities. Unfavorable resolutions of tax positions or changes in global tax rules, such as the OECD’s Pillar Two 15% minimum tax, could increase the effective tax rate and reduce cash flow.

4. Financial Impact Map

Intense Market Competition → Net Sales and Gross Margin → Pricing pressures and potential volume declines from private label shifts. Customer Concentration → Net Sales → Loss of shelf space or reduced orders from top four customers (44% of 2025 sales). Raw Material and Energy Volatility → Gross Margin → Inability to offset input cost increases through price hikes or cost efficiencies. Shifting Retail Environment → Net Sales and Operating Income → Retailers passing e-commerce operating costs to Church & Dwight. Debt Obligations → Cash Flow and Interest Expense → Debt service requirements limit capital for reinvestment and stock repurchases.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
14A	Mar 2025	—