CHRW

Industrials

C.H. Robinson

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$7.3B	$8.6B	$7.6B	$9.3B	$10.3B	$11.4B	$12.8B	$13.5B	$13.5B	$13.1B	$14.9B	$16.6B	$15.3B	$16.2B	$23.1B	$24.7B	$17.6B	$17.7B	$16.2B	-8.4%
Gross Profit	$6.1B	$7.3B	$6.2B	$7.8B	$8.9B	$9.9B	$11.2B	$12.1B	$12.1B	$11.8B	$13.6B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross Margin	83.6%	85.0%	81.2%	83.8%	86.4%	86.9%	87.9%	89.5%	89.9%	90.0%	91.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Income	$509.7M	$571.6M	$584.8M	$622.9M	$692.7M	$675.3M	$682.6M	$748.4M	$858.3M	$837.5M	$775.1M	$912.1M	$790.0M	$673.3M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$514.6M	$669.1M	$795.0M	+18.8%
Operating Margin	7.0%	6.7%	7.7%	6.7%	6.7%	5.9%	5.4%	5.6%	6.4%	6.4%	5.2%	5.5%	5.2%	4.2%	4.7%	5.1%	2.9%	3.8%	4.9%	+1.1pp
Net Income	$324.3M	$359.2M	$360.8M	$387.0M	$431.6M	$593.8M	$415.9M	$449.7M	$509.7M	$513.4M	$504.9M	$664.5M	$577.0M	$506.4M	$844.2M	$940.5M	$325.1M	$465.7M	$587.1M	+26.1%
Net Margin	4.4%	4.2%	4.8%	4.2%	4.2%	5.2%	3.3%	3.3%	3.8%	3.9%	3.4%	4.0%	3.8%	3.1%	3.7%	3.8%	1.8%	2.6%	3.6%	+1.0pp
Free Cash Flow	$264.7M	$423.8M	$338.1M	$327.1M	$393.8M	$424.2M	$307.4M	$491.1M	$690.2M	$456.0M	$343.9M	$747.9M	$799.1M	$476.1M	$60.8M	$1.6B	$702.0M	$486.4M	$894.9M	+84.0%
FCF Margin	3.6%	4.9%	4.5%	3.5%	3.8%	3.7%	2.4%	3.6%	5.1%	3.5%	2.3%	4.5%	5.2%	2.9%	0.3%	6.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.5%	+2.8pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.86	$2.08	$2.13	$2.33	$2.62	$3.67	$2.65	$3.05	$3.51	$3.59	$3.57	$4.73	$4.19	$3.72	$6.31	$7.40	$2.72	$3.86	$4.83	+25.1%

Total Debt$1.1B

Cash & Equiv.$160.9M

Net Debt$928.6M

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

C.H. Robinson is essentially a high-tech toll booth for global freight that owns neither the roads nor the trucks. While it touts "Lean AI" and massive datasets as a competitive moat, C.H. Robinson is currently a laggard in a cooling market, trading at a significant valuation premium despite having the lowest margins and worst growth profile in its peer group.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

C.H. Robinson's "information advantage," built on one of the world’s largest shipment datasets, is directly threatened by technological disruption (10-K Item 1). If C.H. Robinson fails to outpace competitors in digital freight matching, its "cost to serve" will rise, eroding the very scale it claims as a strength (Risks).

Furthermore, the "stability" cited by management is vulnerable to carrier pricing volatility. Because C.H. Robinson owns "very little transportation equipment," it is entirely dependent on 450,000 independent carriers (10-K Item 1). If carrier prices spike or contract rates become unfavorable, C.H. Robinson risks margin compression or being forced to provide services at a loss to maintain customer relationships (Risks).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a business in a tighter spot than its "Lean AI" narrative suggests. While C.H. Robinson emphasizes market share gains, its TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of -8.4% is the worst among its peers, trailing even the modest 0.3% to 1.1% growth seen at FedEx and Union Pacific (Peer Benchmarking).

Recent results show some stabilization in North American Surface Transportation (NAST), where volumes grew 3%, but this was overshadowed by a 17.3% collapse in Global Forwarding revenues due to lower ocean pricing (8-K). The 6.5% revenue decline in the most recent quarter is a slight improvement over the -8.4% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter figure, but the divestiture of the Europe Surface Transportation business in early 2025 suggests a company narrowing its footprint rather than expanding it (10-Q). With short interest at 7.1% of the float, a significant portion of the market is betting against a quick recovery.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At a 24.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in approximately 5.4% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This valuation represents a 26% premium to the peer median of 19.7x, which is difficult to reconcile with C.H. Robinson’s position as the lowest-margin operator in the group (Peer Benchmarking).

C.H. Robinson keeps just 3.2 cents of profit for every dollar of revenue, while railroad peers like Norfolk Southern keep over 27 cents. For the current price to be "right," C.H. Robinson must prove that its Lean AI strategy can decouple profit growth from the broader freight recession. If growth instead mirrors a standard GDP pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 14.4x—representing roughly 42% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if Global Forwarding revenues (currently down 17.3%) stabilize and ocean adjusted gross profits (down 22.0%) begin to recover, signaling an end to the pricing slump (8-K).
Cautious if net margins (3.2%) continue to slide toward the 2.5% growth scenario, or if the "cost of hire advantage" cited by management is erased by a sudden spike in spot carrier rates (8-K, Risks).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A massive proprietary dataset and the Navisphere platform that automate logistics matching through "Lean AI" agents.

Bottom Line: C.H. Robinson is a premium-priced middleman in a low-margin business, currently failing to match the growth or efficiency of its asset-heavy peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Economic Cyclicality: C.H. Robinson faces material risks from recessions and downturns in customer business cycles, particularly in the retail, food, beverage, automotive, industrial, manufacturing, housing, chemicals, and technology industries, which can lead to reduced freight volumes and increased credit risk.
Carrier Pricing and Margin Compression: Higher carrier prices or unfavorable contract rates can decrease adjusted gross profit margins; if C.H. Robinson cannot increase customer pricing to offset these costs, it may be forced to provide services at a loss.
Third-Party Dependence: Because C.H. Robinson does not employ the people delivering freight, it relies on independent third parties; failures by these providers to fulfill obligations or provide equipment can lead to service delays and customers switching to competitors.
Technological Disruption: Failure to keep pace with competitors leveraging AI, automation, and digital freight matching could increase the cost to serve customers, reduce productivity, and negatively impact the ability to compete.
Fuel Cost Volatility: Fluctuating fuel prices act as a pass-through cost in the truckload business, but because the precise impact is difficult to measure, these fluctuations can cause volatility in the adjusted gross profit margin.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Concentration Risk: C.H. Robinson’s top 100 customers account for approximately 40 percent of consolidated total revenues and 28 percent of consolidated adjusted gross profits, making C.H. Robinson vulnerable to the sudden loss of major accounts.
Fresh Produce Sourcing: The sourcing business is dependent on the supply and price of fresh produce, which is highly volatile and subject to uncontrollable factors like weather, disease, and overproduction; C.H. Robinson occasionally provides monetary advances to growers to secure supply.
Internal System Reliance: The majority of operating systems are developed internally, increasing exposure to cybersecurity events, ransomware, and system shutdowns that could result in service outages and reputational damage.
Acquisition Integration: C.H. Robinson may face difficulties integrating acquired companies into its internal control environment, which could lead to higher operating expenses or failure to realize anticipated revenue synergies.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

International Trade Policy: Changes in U.S. trade policy, including 2025 tariffs on imported goods, have caused volatile market conditions and lower volumes in the Global Forwarding business.
Taxation (Pillar Two): C.H. Robinson is subject to the OECD’s Pillar Two minimum 15 percent tax rate in certain jurisdictions, which may impact the effective tax rate and overall tax liabilities.
Transportation Liability: C.H. Robinson faces potential claims arising from accidents involving contracted motor carriers; while it requires carriers to carry at least $750,000 in automobile liability insurance, claims may exceed coverage or be excluded.
Licensing and Compliance: Operations are subject to various licenses, including DOT property broker licenses, FMC ocean freight forwarder licenses, and USDA licenses for produce sourcing; failure to maintain these or comply with regulations like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act could result in substantial fines or permit revocation.

4. Financial Impact Map

Economic Recession → Operating Results → Potential failure to reach long-term growth goals due to volume decreases. Higher Carrier Prices → Adjusted Gross Profit Margin → Margin compression if pricing to customers cannot be increased. Cybersecurity Events → Revenues → Potential loss of market share and service interruptions. International Trade Policy → Operating Expenses → Increased costs from heightened customs requirements and potential loss of freight volume. Transportation Accidents → Profitability → Increased insurance costs or uninsured liability claims exceeding current policy limits.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—