CME
FinancialsCME Group
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.6B | $4.3B | $4.9B | $4.9B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $6.1B | $6.5B | +6.4% |
| Operating Income | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.9B | $4.2B | +7.6% |
| Operating Margin | 59.9% | 61.8% | 60.8% | 61.0% | 61.6% | 58.1% | 55.8% | 56.8% | 59.8% | 61.3% | 63.4% | 60.5% | 53.2% | 54.0% | 56.4% | 60.1% | 61.6% | 64.1% | 64.9% | +0.7pp |
| Net Income | $658.5M | $715.5M | $825.8M | $951.4M | $1.8B | $896.3M | $976.8M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $4.1B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.1B | +15.5% |
| Net Margin | 37.5% | 27.9% | 31.6% | 31.7% | 55.2% | 30.8% | 33.3% | 36.2% | 37.5% | 42.7% | 111.5% | 45.5% | 43.5% | 43.1% | 56.2% | 53.6% | 57.8% | 57.5% | 62.5% | +4.9pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $650.7M | $997.1M | $925.2M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $4.2B | +16.6% |
| FCF Margin | 37.1% | 38.9% | 35.4% | 39.8% | 35.8% | 36.9% | 39.3% | 37.0% | 42.1% | 45.2% | 48.2% | 53.9% | 49.9% | 51.6% | 48.5% | 59.1% | 60.5% | 58.7% | 64.3% | +5.6pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $14.93 | $12.13 | $12.41 | $14.31 | $27.15 | $2.70 | $2.92 | $3.35 | $3.69 | $4.53 | $11.94 | $5.71 | $5.91 | $5.87 | $7.29 | $7.40 | $8.86 | $9.67 | $11.16 | +15.4% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
CME Group functions as the essential "toll booth" for global risk management, but it is currently a slow-growth incumbent in an increasingly competitive field. While CME Group returned nearly $30 billion to shareholders since 2012, its 6.4% revenue growth is the lowest among its peer group, suggesting that its massive scale may be limiting its ability to find new gear (Peer Benchmarking).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
CME Group’s primary strength, its Market Liquidity, is threatened by Market Volatility and Economic Conditions because transaction fees are highly sensitive to global capital availability. While uncertainty usually drives hedging, extreme market disturbances can lead to "reduced risk exposure," which would dry up the very volumes CME Group relies on for the "substantial majority" of its income (Risks).
Similarly, its Product Diversity is threatened by Licensing Dependency. Much of CME Group’s competitive edge comes from exclusive licenses for benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Because CME Group "cannot guarantee" it will maintain these exclusive agreements or renew them on favorable terms, its most liquid equity index products remain vulnerable to third-party contract negotiations (Competitive Position).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a business that is highly efficient but structurally slower than its rivals. CME Group’s 6.4% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth lags significantly behind Intercontinental Exchange (+7.5%) and Interactive Brokers (+19.7%). However, it compensates for this slower top-line expansion with a low-beta profile (0.26) and the highest dividend yield (1.6%) in its peer group (Peer Benchmarking).
The recent 7% increase in average daily volume to 27.4 million contracts in Q4 2025 shows that the "risk-always-on environment" is currently working in CME Group's favor (8-K). However, the ongoing migration to Google Cloud introduces a period of "duplicative costs" and variable expenses that may weigh on margins until the transition is complete. Sentiment remains stable, with short interest at a negligible 1.5% of the float, indicating that investors view CME Group as a safe, if unexciting, harbor.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 24.2x, CME Group is trading "in line with peers" (median 24.3x). This valuation is fair for a dominant market utility, but it lacks the growth-adjusted appeal of peers like Interactive Brokers, which offers triple the growth rate at a similar multiple.
At this price, the market is pricing in approximately 1.8% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This is a conservative estimate that aligns with CME Group’s mature business model and its 6.4% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth. For this price to be "right," CME Group simply needs to maintain its current volume levels and successfully navigate the transition to Google Cloud without losing market share to alternative instruments or OTC markets. However, if growth were to accelerate toward a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of 29.2x, providing roughly 21% upside.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if regulatory reforms such as EMIR 3.0 or Basel III significantly increase the capital requirements for clearing members, potentially suppressing trading volumes (Risks).
- Constructive if the U.S. Treasury clearing initiative (CMESC) or the expansion into prediction markets through the FanDuel joint venture results in a sustained acceleration of revenue growth above the current 6.4% trend (10-K Item 1).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Massive network effects driven by deep liquidity pools and exclusive licenses for global benchmark products that make it the default destination for institutional risk management.
Bottom Line: CME Group is a high-quality defensive asset that is fairly priced for its modest growth, offering safety and yield rather than aggressive capital appreciation.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Market Volatility and Economic Conditions: CME Group’s revenue is substantially derived from transaction fees, which are highly sensitive to global economic, political, and geopolitical conditions. While heightened uncertainty can increase hedging activity, extreme market disturbances may lead to decreased volume due to reduced risk exposure and lack of available capital.
- Regulatory Compliance and Oversight: Operating in a heavily regulated environment across the U.S., UK, and EU, CME Group faces the risk of increased oversight and new legislation. Failure to maintain compliance or status as a regulated entity could result in fines, loss of customers, or the revocation of designations as a contract market or clearing organization.
- Intense Industry Competition: CME Group faces competition from entities with greater resources, including other exchanges, OTC markets, and technology firms. Competitors may utilize more flexible governance structures, lower fees, or superior technology to capture market share, which would lower CME Group’s revenues and profitability.
- Cybersecurity and Operational Resilience: As a critical financial infrastructure provider, CME Group is a target for cyber attacks, including ransomware and phishing. A successful breach or system failure—such as the November 2025 cooling failure at a CyrusOne data center—could result in service interruptions, loss of customers, and significant remediation costs.
- Clearing House Credit Risk: CME Group guarantees transactions submitted by clearing firms, exposing CME Group to the financial distress or failure of these counterparties. In 2025, the clearing house transferred an average of approximately $6.7 billion per day, and a default by a clearing firm could exhaust margin and guaranty fund deposits, putting CME Group’s working capital at risk.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Governance Influence of Members: Nine board members own trading rights or represent firms that do, and 85% of 2025 derivatives contract volume was derived from members. These members may advocate for their own trading and clearing interests over the interests of Class A shareholders.
- Special Rights of Class B Shareholders: Class B shareholders, who are CME exchange members, possess the right to elect six directors regardless of their Class A share ownership, which may limit CME Group’s ability to take actions—such as pricing changes—that it deems in the best interest of CME Group.
- Dependency on Third-Party Benchmarks: A significant percentage of contract volume and revenue is based on indexes derived from third-party price reporting agencies; loss of intellectual property rights to these benchmarks would negatively impact revenue.
- New Clearing Initiatives: While CME Group has deep experience in derivatives clearing, the planned 2026 launch of clearing services for U.S. Treasury cash and repo transactions represents an expansion into a new area of securities clearing that carries different risk profiles.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Digital Asset Legislation: Congress is currently considering legislation regarding the regulatory market structure for spot digital assets, which could impact listed derivatives regulation.
- Event-Based Contract Litigation: The legal status of event-based contracts, particularly those based on sports, is subject to ongoing litigation that could restrict CME Group’s ability to offer these products.
- Clearing Utility Proposals: Certain clearing firms have sought legislative or regulatory changes to allow positions to be moved to clearing houses owned by clearing firms, which would threaten the vertically-integrated business model of CME Group.
- Broker-Dealer and MTF Regulation: BrokerTec and EBS are subject to extensive requirements including anti-money laundering programs, capital requirements, and suspicious activity reporting; failure to comply could result in monetary penalties or restrictions on activities.
4. Financial Impact Map
Global Market Volatility → Transaction-based Revenue → Material decreases in trading volume would have a material adverse effect on financial condition and operating results.
Regulatory Compliance Costs → Operating Expenses → Significant costs are incurred to comply with extensive legislation and regulatory scrutiny, including potential requirements to set aside more funds for the guaranty fund.
Competitive Pricing Pressure → Profit Margin → Aggressive pricing strategies by competitors, such as lowering fees or increasing rebates, may force changes to the pricing structure, resulting in a decrease to the profit margin.
Cybersecurity/System Failure → Net Income → Because the cost structure is largely fixed, system failures or cyber attacks that cause a decline in demand and revenue cannot be easily offset, causing net income to decline.
Clearing Firm Default → Working Capital → A substantial part of working capital may be at risk if a clearing firm defaults and its margin and guaranty fund deposits are insufficient to meet its obligations.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
CME Group reports record Q1 average daily volume of 36.2 million contracts, up 22%
- ▸March monthly ADV reached record 41.1 million contracts, +33% YoY
- ▸Q1 quarterly ADV reached record 36.2 million contracts, +22% YoY
- ▸Record quarterly volumes across all asset classes including interest rates, energy, and metals
- ▸Interest Rate ADV rose 42% to 20.8 million contracts
- ▸Energy ADV surged 91% to record 5.1 million contracts
CME Group reports record Q1 average daily volume of 36.2 million contracts, up 22%
- ▸March ADV reached record 41.1 million contracts, up 33% YoY
- ▸Q1 ADV reached record 36.2 million contracts, up 22% YoY
- ▸Record quarterly volume across all asset classes including interest rates, energy, and metals
- ▸Interest Rate ADV rose 42% to 20.8 million contracts
- ▸Energy ADV increased 91% to record 5.1 million contracts
Stocktwits Integrates CME Group Futures Data for 10 Million Platform Users
- ▸Stocktwits adds interactive charts and streaming prices for full suite of CME futures
- ▸Integration covers equities, FX, crypto, energy, agriculture, metals, and interest rate markets
- ▸Tradier partners to offer one year of TradingView Essential for new futures accounts
- ▸Futures data now available to Stocktwits' 10 million global investor and trader community
- ▸Partnership aims to expand retail access to global benchmark futures markets
CME Group CEO warns government oil intervention risks market stability amid record energy volumes
- ▸Energy trading volumes on CME platforms reached all-time highs
- ▸CEO warned of potential government intervention in oil derivatives pricing
- ▸Filed shelf registration for $466.8M ESOP-related stock offering
- ▸Geopolitical tensions driving increased demand for risk management tools
- ▸Regulatory and policy intervention identified as potential long-term headwind