COIN
FinancialsCoinbase
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Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2019–2025(7yr)| Metric | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $533.7M | $1.3B | $7.8B | $3.2B | $3.1B | $6.6B | $7.2B | +9.4% |
| Operating Income | -$45.8M | $409.0M | $3.1B | -$2.7B | -$161.7M | $2.3B | $1.4B | -37.8% |
| Operating Margin | -8.6% | 32.0% | 39.2% | -84.8% | -5.2% | 35.1% | 20.0% | -15.2pp |
| Net Income | -$30.4M | $322.3M | $3.6B | -$2.6B | $94.9M | $2.6B | $1.3B | -51.1% |
| Net Margin | -5.7% | 25.2% | 46.2% | -82.2% | 3.1% | 39.3% | 17.6% | -21.7pp |
| Free Cash Flow | -$114.1M | $3.0B | $10.7B | -$1.6B | $923.0M | — | — | — |
| FCF Margin | -21.4% | 234.4% | 136.8% | -49.7% | 29.7% | — | — | — |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.50 | $1.40 | $14.50 | $-11.83 | $0.37 | $9.48 | $4.45 | -53.1% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Coinbase is attempting a difficult transition from a cyclical crypto brokerage to a diversified financial infrastructure provider, but its financial health remains hostage to the very volatility it seeks to transcend. While it builds the "Everything Exchange" and the Base blockchain to find new revenue, Coinbase’s recent slide into a $667 million quarterly loss (8-K) proves that its massive $11.3 billion cash pile is a necessary buffer rather than a sign of current stability.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "Everything Exchange" strategy is directly threatened by regulatory uncertainty because expanding into stocks and futures invites oversight from agencies already scrutinizing its core crypto products (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the "Trust" advantage is undermined by revenue concentration; with 45% of volume in Bitcoin and Ethereum, any specific regulatory or technical failure in those two assets would cripple the platform regardless of its internal security protocols. Finally, the push for "Ease of Use" through the Base App is threatened by cybersecurity risks, where a single breach of its self-custodial tools could cause irretrievable asset loss and destroy the brand's primary differentiator (10-K Item 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financials reveal a business in a pincer movement: while transaction revenue plummeted from $1.56 billion to $983 million year-over-year, subscription and services revenue grew to $727 million, largely on the back of stablecoin interest (8-K). This shift makes Coinbase a "rates play" as much as a "crypto play." However, the most recent quarter's revenue decline sharply diverges from the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth of +9.4%, suggesting the crypto cycle is currently a stronger headwind than new products are a tailwind. With 13.5% of the float held short, market sentiment remains deeply divided on whether Coinbase can maintain its premium valuation while reporting negative net income (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 33.2x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Coinbase trades at a significant premium to the peer median of 25.1x (XBRL). The market is pricing in roughly 22% long-term growth (CAPM analysis), yet Coinbase’s actual revenue growth of 9.4% is among the lowest in its peer group, trailing Robinhood’s 51.6% (XBRL). This valuation is difficult to justify given that Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in the most recent quarter while peers like Schwab and Interactive Brokers maintain high profitability. If growth fails to accelerate toward the 22% market-implied rate and instead tracks closer to 18.5%, the justified multiple would drop to 15.6x—a 53% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if interest rates decline significantly, as stablecoin revenue ($364 million) now accounts for a vital portion of the top line (8-K).
- Constructive if institutional transaction revenue, which rose to $185 million despite the retail slump, becomes the dominant driver of volume, reducing dependence on fickle retail sentiment.
- Cautious if Bitcoin and Ethereum's share of trading volume exceeds the current 45-46% range, signaling a failure to diversify into the "Everything Exchange" (10-K Item 1A).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Regulatory trust and an integrated ecosystem that links USDC liquidity to institutional prime brokerage and the Base blockchain.
Bottom Line: Despite its "Everything Exchange" ambition, Coinbase remains a high-beta bet on crypto prices and interest rates, currently priced for growth it is not yet delivering.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Crypto Market Volatility: Coinbase’s operating results fluctuate significantly based on crypto asset prices and trading volumes, which are unpredictable and outside Coinbase's control.
- Revenue Concentration: A meaningful portion of net revenue is derived from Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, which accounted for approximately 45% and 46% of total Trading Volume in 2025 and 2024, respectively.
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Profitability is dependent on interest earned on customer custodial deposits and stablecoin reserves; declines in short-term interest rates directly reduce this revenue stream.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Coinbase operates under an evolving and uncertain global regulatory landscape where failure to comply with laws—or new interpretations of existing ones—could lead to fines, license revocations, or the suspension of products.
- Cybersecurity and Platform Integrity: As a custodian of customer assets, Coinbase faces constant threats from sophisticated cyberattacks, social engineering, and system failures that could result in the irretrievable loss of assets and significant reputational damage.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Third-Party Dependency: Coinbase relies on partners like Circle for USDC creation and redemption; if these partners fail to provide operational services, Coinbase’s ability to maintain its stablecoin offerings is compromised.
- Staking and Slashing Penalties: When operating staking nodes, Coinbase faces the risk of "slashing" penalties imposed by blockchain networks for downtime or malicious activity, which could result in the confiscation of customer assets for which Coinbase may be held responsible.
- Indebtedness Obligations: Coinbase carries approximately $7.28 billion in aggregate principal amount of long-term indebtedness as of December 31, 2025, which limits financial flexibility and requires significant cash flow for debt service.
- Key Management Risks: The loss, destruction, or compromise of private keys used to access crypto assets held in custody is irreversible, potentially forcing Coinbase to reimburse customers for losses that exceed insurance coverage.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Security Classification: The SEC and courts may determine that supported crypto assets or services (such as staking or lending) constitute "securities," which would force Coinbase to cease offering those products until compliant registration is achieved.
- International Compliance: Expansion into foreign markets requires adherence to fragmented and conflicting regulatory regimes, including the EU’s MiCA framework, which imposes localization requirements and increased compliance costs.
- Litigation Exposure: Coinbase is subject to ongoing investigations and class action lawsuits regarding consumer protection, privacy, and securities laws, which divert management attention and incur substantial legal fees.
- Sanctions and AML: Despite maintaining an OFAC compliance program, Coinbase faces the risk of inadvertent violations of sanctions and anti-money laundering laws, particularly regarding activity in jurisdictions like Russia and Belarus.
4. Financial Impact Map
Crypto Market Volatility → Total Revenue → Highly dependent on transaction fees and trading volume, which fluctuate with market sentiment. Revenue Concentration → Net Revenue → Approximately 45%–46% of Trading Volume is tied specifically to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Interest Rate Sensitivity → Subscription and Services Revenue → Derived from interest earned on customer custodial accounts and stablecoin reserves; declines in rates reduce this income. Regulatory Uncertainty → Operating Expenses → Significant costs incurred for compliance, legal defense, and remediation of examination findings. Cybersecurity and Platform Integrity → Cash and Crypto Assets → Potential for irretrievable loss of assets and significant remediation costs, with insurance coverage potentially insufficient to cover total losses.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Coinbase Launches Tokenized Credit Fund CUSHY to Bridge Traditional and Digital Asset Markets
- ▸Launched Coinbase Stablecoin Credit Strategy (CUSHY) for on-chain credit exposure
- ▸Utilizes Superstate’s FundOS platform for tokenized fund management
- ▸Targets yield premiums from migration of credit markets to blockchain rails
- ▸Stablecoin transaction volumes exceeded $33 trillion in 2025
- ▸Strategic initiative to diversify revenue and expand institutional product offerings
Bernstein cuts price targets on COIN, HOOD, FIGR citing crypto headwinds
- ▸COIN 2026 EPS estimate cut by 44% to $5.97
- ▸COIN spot volumes tracking 30% below Q4 2025 levels
- ▸HOOD prediction market revenue projected to surge 286% in 2026
- ▸COIN price target lowered to $330; HOOD to $130; FIGR to $67
- ▸FIGR monthly loan origination volume crossed $1B in March
Coinbase Faces Scrutiny Over Crypto Protection Coverage Limits Following $100,000 User Loss
- ▸Crypto thefts reached $2.7 billion in 2025, up 22% year-over-year
- ▸Coinbase One subscriber denied $100,000 claim due to security setting eligibility
- ▸Company maintains users responsible for account activity despite subscription protection claims
- ▸Dispute over coverage terms moved to private arbitration
- ▸Crypto platforms lack FDIC-style protections, relying on conditional insurance-linked offerings
Coinbase and Better Home launch token-backed mortgage product amid lender's $40M quarterly loss
- ▸Launched token-backed mortgage product with Better Home
- ▸Better Home reported $40 million net loss in recent quarter
- ▸Product integrates cryptocurrency assets into mortgage financing process
- ▸Partnership targets expansion of crypto-utility in real estate lending
Proposed Clarity Act yield restrictions threaten stablecoin revenue for Coinbase and Circle
- ▸Clarity Act proposes banning interest/rewards on stablecoin balances
- ▸Legislation targets yield-bearing products mimicking traditional bank deposits
- ▸Coinbase revenue significantly tied to Circle stablecoin yield partnership
- ▸Proposed rules would force shift from passive rewards to activity-based incentives
- ▸CRCL shares remain up 25% YTD despite recent legislative sell-off
Clarity Act revisions threaten stablecoin yields; Circle shares tumble 20% on regulatory risk
- ▸Circle Internet Group shares fell nearly 20% on regulatory news
- ▸Clarity Act revisions target stablecoin yield payment structures
- ▸Coinbase and Bullish shares declined following legislative update
- ▸Proposed language creates significant headwinds for crypto industry business models
- ▸Market reacts to potential ban on stablecoin yield generation
Circle shares drop 20% on reports Clarity Act may restrict stablecoin yield rewards
- ▸Circle shares fell 20% intraday, largest drop on record
- ▸Proposed Clarity Act could prohibit stablecoin yield payments
- ▸Coinbase shares declined 8% on regulatory concerns
- ▸Legislation aims to restrict yield resembling bank deposits
- ▸Yield is primary driver for capital inflows into stablecoins
Coinsilium expands into $65B prediction markets sector via strategic investment in Prediction Labs
- ▸Strategic expansion into prediction markets identified as key focus for 2026
- ▸Prediction market sector currently valued at over $65 billion
- ▸Initial stake acquired in Prediction Labs with options to increase investment
- ▸Investment milestones tied to platform launch, technological development, and user growth
- ▸Focus on data and intelligence model to mitigate regulatory complexity
Baird Raises Coinbase Price Target to $215 From $165 Citing Crypto Sentiment
- ▸Baird raised COIN price target to $215 from $165
- ▸Analyst rating maintained at Neutral
- ▸Growth driven by increased stablecoin activity and crypto price appreciation
- ▸Q1 2026 exchange trading volumes remain weaker than Q1 2025
- ▸Launched regulated futures contracts in 26 European countries via Coinbase Advanced
Coinbase stablecoin revenue projected to grow sevenfold under Genius Act
- ▸Stablecoin business contributed 19% of total 2025 revenue
- ▸Bloomberg Intelligence projects sevenfold revenue growth under Genius Act
- ▸Aon PLC utilized Coinbase to settle insurance premium payments via stablecoins
- ▸Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight rating with $221 price target
- ▸Transaction utilized USDC on Ethereum and PayPal USD on Solana