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EnergyConocoPhillips
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $187.4B | $240.8B | $149.3B | $63.3B | $66.1B | $62.0B | $58.2B | $55.5B | $30.9B | $24.4B | $32.6B | $38.7B | $36.7B | $19.3B | $48.3B | $78.5B | $56.1B | $54.7B | $58.9B | +7.7% |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $14.4B | $20.1B | $24.4B | $24.8B | $11.2B | $30.2B | $44.5B | $34.2B | $34.7B | $36.6B | +5.4% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59.0% | 61.7% | 63.1% | 67.7% | 58.0% | 62.4% | 56.7% | 60.9% | 63.4% | 62.1% | -1.3pp |
| Net Income | $11.9B | -$17.0B | $4.4B | $11.4B | $12.4B | $8.4B | $9.2B | $6.9B | -$4.4B | -$3.6B | -$855.0M | $6.3B | $7.2B | -$2.7B | $8.1B | $18.7B | $11.0B | $9.2B | $8.0B | -13.6% |
| Net Margin | 6.3% | -7.1% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 12.4% | -14.3% | -14.8% | -2.6% | 16.2% | 19.6% | -14.0% | 16.7% | 23.8% | 19.5% | 16.9% | 13.6% | -3.3pp |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — | -$250.0M | $550.0M | -$350.0M | -$2.5B | -$466.0M | $2.5B | $6.2B | $4.5B | $87.0M | $11.7B | $18.2B | — | — | — | — |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — | — | -0.4% | 0.9% | -0.6% | -8.0% | -1.9% | 7.6% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 0.5% | 24.1% | 23.1% | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.22 | $-11.16 | $2.94 | $7.62 | $8.97 | $6.72 | $7.38 | $5.51 | $-3.58 | $-2.91 | $-0.70 | $5363.91 | $6.40 | $-2.51 | $6.07 | $14.57 | $9.06 | $7.81 | $6.35 | -18.7% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
ConocoPhillips is currently a tale of two timelines: it is harvesting cash from its low-cost unconventional assets in North America to fund a massive shift toward long-term, capital-intensive projects like Willow in Alaska and Port Arthur LNG. While ConocoPhillips is successfully growing its production base—aided by the Marathon Oil integration—its bottom line remains entirely at the mercy of global commodity cycles that can erase volume gains in a single quarter.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
ConocoPhillips’s "low cost of supply" advantage (10-K Item 1) is directly threatened by commodity price volatility, which saw WTI prices swing from $80 to $55 per barrel in 2025. This volatility is potent enough to overwhelm operational scale; for instance, a 19% drop in realized prices in late 2025 led to a nearly $1 billion decline in quarterly earnings even as production rose (8-K). Furthermore, the strength of its Alaska infrastructure is vulnerable to project execution risk. With first oil from the Bear Tooth Unit not expected until 2029, ConocoPhillips must navigate years of environmental regulation and "multi-year construction" risks before these assets contribute to the bottom line (10-K Item 1).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company that is running faster just to stand still. While ConocoPhillips grew revenue by 7.7% over the last twelve months—outperforming giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron—its most recent quarterly earnings fell from $2.3 billion to $1.4 billion (8-K). This divergence is explained by the 19% collapse in realized prices per barrel of oil equivalent. Management is responding by tightening the belt, targeting a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs for 2026. Sentiment remains stable, with short interest at a negligible 1.7% of the float, suggesting the market is not betting on a collapse despite the earnings volatility.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 16.8x forward earnings, ConocoPhillips trades in line with the peer median of 17.4x. According to the CAPM analysis, the market is currently pricing in a meager 0.1% long-term growth rate. This appears to be a cautious valuation given that ConocoPhillips’s buyback yield of 3.7% alone implies a 3.8% growth in earnings per share, even if net income remains flat. The current price is justified if ConocoPhillips meets its 2026 production guidance of 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED. However, if long-term growth were to align with broader GDP at 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of 28.3x—a significant premium that the market is currently unwilling to grant due to the "operational hazards" and "climate-related litigation" cited in the risk factors.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the integration of Marathon Oil yields synergies beyond the current "doubling" of capture mentioned by management, or if the 2026 capital expenditure comes in significantly below the $12 billion guidance without sacrificing production.
- Cautious if realized prices drop below the $42.46 per BOE mark seen in Q4 2025, or if regulatory shifts in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPR-A) create further delays for the Willow project.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A high-margin, low-cost unconventional portfolio paired with proprietary LNG liquefaction technology and a dominant infrastructure position in Alaska. Bottom Line: ConocoPhillips is a disciplined cash-return machine that is currently valued as a no-growth business, offering a solid entry point for those who believe oil prices will remain stable enough to fund its 2029 Alaska payout.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Commodity Price Volatility: Sales prices for crude oil, bitumen, LNG, natural gas, and NGLs are subject to wide fluctuations beyond ConocoPhillips’ control, as evidenced by WTI crude oil prices ranging from $80 per barrel in January 2025 to $55 per barrel in December 2025.
- Reserve Replacement: ConocoPhillips must successfully replace produced resources with new prospects; failure to do so will cause the business to decline and adversely affect financial results.
- Competitive Pressures: ConocoPhillips competes with private, public, and state-owned companies for materials, equipment, services, and personnel, as well as against alternative fuels.
- Climate-Related Strategy Execution: Achieving GHG intensity reduction targets is subject to risks including government policy shifts, the pace of technology development, and the potential for insufficient supply of emission offsets, which could increase expenses.
- Operational Hazards: ConocoPhillips faces risks from explosions, fires, spills, severe weather, and cyberattacks, which could result in loss of life, property damage, and environmental pollution that insurance may not fully cover.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Joint Venture Constraints: ConocoPhillips conducts many operations through joint ventures where it may not have majority control, limiting its ability to influence decisions or manage risks that could adversely affect its financial condition.
- Infrastructure Dependency: The ability to sell production depends on the availability of gathering, processing, and pipeline facilities; if these become unavailable due to mechanical issues or permitting delays, ConocoPhillips may be forced to curtail production.
- Cybersecurity and IT Reliance: Increasing reliance on digital technologies and industrial control systems exposes ConocoPhillips to cyber-attacks that could cause physical damage to assets, business interruption, and regulatory fines.
- Acquisition and Divestiture Risks: ConocoPhillips may face difficulties integrating acquired assets or may be unable to dispose of noncore assets on satisfactory terms, potentially leading to unforeseen liabilities or impairment of assets.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Climate Litigation: ConocoPhillips is a defendant in lawsuits filed by cities, counties, and other entities seeking compensatory damages for alleged climate change impacts, as well as a putative class action regarding home insurance premiums.
- Environmental Compliance: ConocoPhillips incurs substantial expenditures to comply with laws governing pollutant discharge, hazardous waste, and site restoration; failure to comply can result in administrative or civil penalties and criminal fines.
- Export Restrictions: Government-imposed limitations on exports, such as the temporary pause on new LNG export authorizations in the U.S. during 2024, can adversely impact the global LNG business.
- Foreign Jurisdictional Risks: Approximately 29 percent of hydrocarbon production and 31 percent of proved reserves were located outside the U.S. as of December 31, 2025, exposing ConocoPhillips to risks of expropriation, changes in foreign tax laws, and lack of legal certainty.
4. Financial Impact Map
- Commodity Price Volatility → Revenues, Operating Income, and Cash Flows → Prolonged low prices may require reductions in capital expenditures or asset impairments.
- Reserve Replacement → Proved Reserves and Reserve Replacement Ratio → Failure to replace reserves leads to a decline in the scope of the business and potential impairment of asset carrying values.
- Climate-Related Strategy Execution → Capital Expenditures and Operating Costs → Costs associated with purchasing emission credits and potential impairment of net book value for assets with high emissions intensity.
- Operational Hazards → Property and Equipment → Potential for significant property damage and environmental remediation costs that may exceed insurance coverage.
- Legal and Regulatory Risks → Legal Costs and Capital Expenditures → Substantial legal costs for defending climate-related lawsuits and increased compliance costs for environmental and methane emission standards.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
ConocoPhillips Q1 Revenue $16.05B Beats Estimates; 2026 Production Guidance Trimmed
- ▸Q1 revenue $16.05B, net income $2.18B
- ▸Q1 production 2,309 MBOED
- ▸FY26 production guidance lowered to 2.295–2.325 MMBOED
- ▸Q2 production guidance excludes Qatar operations due to downtime
- ▸Maintained quarterly dividend of $0.84 per share
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance sells $15M in company stock
- ▸CEO Michael Ryan Lance sold 113,000 shares on March 31, 2026
- ▸Transaction value totaled approximately $15 million
- ▸Sale follows strong performance in energy sector and elevated oil prices
- ▸Company maintains focus on capital returns via dividends and share buybacks
- ▸Upcoming Q1 earnings release scheduled for April 30, 2026
ConocoPhillips 2026 Production Guidance 2.33-2.36 MMBOED; Q4 Production 2,320 MBOED
- ▸2026 production guidance 2.33–2.36 MMBOED; Q1 2026 guidance 2.30–2.34 MMBOED
- ▸Q4 2025 production 2,320 MBOED vs 2,183 MBOED YoY
- ▸Full year 2025 production 2,375 MBOED vs 1,987 MBOED YoY
- ▸Q4 2025 share repurchases totaled $1.022B for 11.3M shares
- ▸Considering potential sale of Permian Basin assets valued at approximately $2B
ConocoPhillips to return $9 billion to shareholders as oil prices exceed $100
- ▸$9 billion total capital returned to shareholders in 2025
- ▸$4 billion allocated specifically to dividend payments
- ▸Oil prices sustained above $100 per barrel
- ▸Increased production output achieved throughout 2025
- ▸Operational cost reductions implemented across business segments
Crude Oil Prices Near $100/Barrel Amid Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
- ▸WTI crude prices trading near $100 per barrel
- ▸EIA projects 2026 WTI crude price at $73.61, up from $65.40 in 2025
- ▸ConocoPhillips plans to reduce 2026 capital spending to $12B from $13.7B in 2025
- ▸Diamondback Energy reported 9% increase in oil production per share from 2024 to 2025
- ▸Upstream energy producers positioned to benefit from sustained high commodity pricing
ConocoPhillips Q4 Production 2,320 MBOED; 2026 Guidance Set at 2.33-2.36 MMBOED
- ▸Q4 2025 production 2,320 MBOED; full-year 2025 production 2,375 MBOED
- ▸2026 production guidance 2.33–2.36 MMBOED; Q1 2026 outlook 2.30–2.34 MMBOED
- ▸Q4 2025 share repurchases totaled 11.07 million shares for $1 billion
- ▸Weighing potential sale of Permian Basin assets valued at approximately $2 billion
- ▸Analysts adjust price targets ranging from $98 to $144 amid mixed commodity outlook