CPB
DefensiveCampbell's Company (The)
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B | $7.6B | $7.7B | $7.7B | $7.7B | $8.1B | $8.3B | $8.1B | $8.0B | $5.8B | $6.6B | $8.1B | $8.7B | $8.5B | $8.6B | $9.4B | $9.6B | $10.3B | +6.4% |
| Gross Profit | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.1B | +5.0% |
| Gross Margin | 39.6% | 39.9% | 41.0% | 40.2% | 38.8% | 36.2% | 35.1% | 34.7% | 34.9% | 41.8% | 35.9% | 33.2% | 34.5% | 33.2% | 30.7% | 31.2% | 30.8% | 30.4% | -0.4pp |
| Operating Income | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $960.0M | $1.4B | $469.0M | $979.0M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.0B | $1.1B | +12.4% |
| Operating Margin | 13.7% | 15.6% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 24.0% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 11.0% | +0.6pp |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $736.0M | $844.0M | $805.0M | $774.0M | $458.0M | $818.0M | $691.0M | $563.0M | $887.0M | $261.0M | $211.0M | $1.6B | $1.0B | $757.0M | $858.0M | $567.0M | $602.0M | +6.2% |
| Net Margin | 14.6% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 18.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.0pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $468.0M | $821.0M | $742.0M | $870.0M | $797.0M | $683.0M | $552.0M | $802.0M | $1.1B | $953.0M | $898.0M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $760.0M | $939.0M | $773.0M | $668.0M | $705.0M | +5.5% |
| FCF Margin | 5.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | -0.1pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.03 | $2.05 | $2.42 | $2.42 | $2.41 | $1.44 | $2.59 | $2.21 | $1.81 | $2.89 | $0.86 | $0.70 | $5.36 | $3.29 | $2.51 | $2.85 | $1.89 | $2.01 | +6.3% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Campbell’s is a legacy food giant caught between its storied past and a high-debt future. While it owns "leadership brands" like Goldfish and Rao’s, it is currently navigating a period of organic sales decline and shrinking earnings, all while carrying a $6.857 billion debt load that restricts its financial flexibility (10-K Item 1, 8-K). Campbell's Company (The) is essentially a yield play for investors, offering a 6.2% dividend, but its underlying business is treading water as consumers become more "intentional" and price-sensitive in a volatile macroeconomic environment (8-K, Peer Benchmarking).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "leadership brand" strategy is directly threatened by Campbell's Company (The)’s extreme customer concentration. With five customers accounting for 47% of net sales—and Walmart alone at 21%—Campbell’s has limited leverage to pass on the "volatility in labor, energy, and raw materials" it cites as a primary risk (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the reliance on Rao’s for growth is precarious; the "substantial majority" of Rao’s sauce is produced by a single third-party manufacturer, meaning a disruption there could derail one of the few bright spots in the Meals & Beverages segment (10-K Item 1A, 8-K).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a disconnect between trailing growth and current momentum. While revenue grew 6.4% over the last twelve months, the most recent quarter saw a 3% decline in reported sales and a 1% drop in organic sales (8-K, Peer Benchmarking). This suggests the trailing figure was likely propped up by the Rao’s acquisition rather than structural organic strength. Profitability is also under pressure: adjusted EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric fell 13% in the most recent quarter, and gross margins of 30.2% sit near the bottom of the peer group (8-K, Peer Benchmarking). Sentiment is notably bearish, with short interest at 22.6% of the float, suggesting a large segment of the market expects the current "category softness" in snacks to persist (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a 9.7x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Campbell’s trades at a 35% discount to the peer median of 14.8x (Peer Benchmarking). The market is pricing in just 0.5% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This deep discount appears justified by Campbell's Company (The)’s financial profile: its $6.7 billion in net debt against just $0.7 billion in annual free cash flow results in 10.0x net leverage, a level that limits capital project planning and increases vulnerability to interest rate shifts (10-K Item 1A, CAPM analysis). While the 6.2% dividend yield is attractive, it must be weighed against the reaffirmed full-year guidance of a potential 13% decline in adjusted EBIT (8-K). If growth were to slow even further, the market-implied growth rate suggests the valuation could remain depressed regardless of the dividend.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if organic net sales return to the top end of the 1% guidance range, proving that "brand support and innovation" can overcome private-label competition (8-K).
- Cautious if the net debt-to-FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders ratio continues to climb, or if a credit rating downgrade occurs due to the $6.857 billion debt burden (10-K Item 1A).
- Cautious if volume/mix declines in the Snacks segment accelerate beyond the current 3% drop, indicating a loss of brand relevance among price-sensitive shoppers (8-K).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A portfolio of 3,000 trademarks and a direct-store-delivery network that provides deep retail penetration for "leadership brands" like Goldfish and Pepperidge Farm. Bottom Line: Campbell’s is a high-yield, high-leverage bet on consumer stability that currently lacks the organic growth to justify a higher valuation.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Deterioration in global economic conditions, including inflation and recession, may reduce consumer spending and shift demand toward lower-priced private label products, potentially impacting sales volume and margins.
- Customer Concentration: Campbell's Company (The) relies heavily on a small group of retailers; the five largest customers account for 47% of consolidated net sales, with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and its affiliates alone representing 21%.
- Indebtedness: As of August 3, 2025, Campbell's Company (The) holds $6.857 billion in debt, which increases vulnerability to interest rate changes, restricts capital project planning, and may lead to credit rating downgrades.
- Supply Chain and Input Costs: Volatility in the costs of labor, energy, and raw materials—such as tomatoes, grains, and packaging—combined with the uncertainty of tariffs, threatens the ability to maintain profitability if price increases cannot fully offset these pressures.
- Goodwill and Intangible Assets: Campbell's Company (The) carries $4.991 billion in goodwill and $3.678 billion in indefinite-lived intangible assets, which are subject to annual impairment testing; failure to meet growth expectations could necessitate write-downs that impact net worth.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Rao’s Manufacturing Dependency: The substantial majority of Rao’s tomato-based sauce products are produced by a single third-party contract manufacturer in Italy, creating a significant operational bottleneck.
- Independent Contractor Model: The Snacks segment utilizes an independent contractor distribution model that has been the subject of various class and individual lawsuits, posing potential legal and financial liabilities.
- Sustainability Goal Execution: Campbell's Company (The) has established science-based targets for Scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse gas emissions; failure to achieve these or improper reporting could damage investor confidence and brand reputation.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Food Safety and Labeling: Increased scrutiny from the FDA and other bodies regarding ingredients, such as the call to phase out petroleum-based synthetic dyes, may force costly changes to product formulations or labeling.
- Data Privacy: Campbell's Company (The) is subject to evolving and inconsistent global data protection laws; failure to comply with these regulations regarding the collection and transfer of personal data could result in fines or litigation.
- Environmental Regulations: Potential new Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws and carbon pricing regulations could increase compliance costs and capital expenditures related to packaging and manufacturing emissions.
4. Financial Impact Map
- Macroeconomic Volatility → Net Sales → Potential volume decline if consumers shift to private label or lower-priced offerings.
- Customer Concentration → Net Sales → Disruption of sales to any of the top five customers could materially reduce total revenue.
- Substantial Indebtedness → Interest Expense / Net Income → Increased borrowing costs and vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations.
- Input Cost Inflation → Gross Margin → Inability to fully offset rising costs of raw materials and labor through pricing actions or productivity initiatives.
- Goodwill/Intangible Impairment → Net Worth / Retained Earnings → Impairment charges required if fair value falls below carrying value due to missed growth targets or market condition changes.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Dec 2025 | — |
| 10-Q | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 |
| 10-K | Sep 2025 | Aug 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Campbell's FY26 earnings estimates cut 7% following disappointing Q2 results
- ▸FY26 consensus earnings estimate lowered 7% since March 11 Q2 report
- ▸FY27 consensus earnings estimate lowered 6%
- ▸Stock assigned Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) due to downward revisions
- ▸Company facing headwinds from tariffs, GLP-1 drugs, and shifting consumer preferences
- ▸Market share pressure from insurgent brands capturing 39% of incremental category growth
CPB Q2 net sales -5% to $2.6B, adjusted EPS -31% to $0.51
- ▸Net sales $2.6B, down 5% YoY
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.51, down 31% YoY
- ▸Adjusted EBIT $282M, down 24% YoY
- ▸UBS cuts price target to $20 from $24, maintains Sell rating
- ▸Storm-related shipment delays impacted net sales by ~1%
CPB Q2 net sales $2.56B down 5%, adjusted EPS $0.51 misses expectations
- ▸Q2 net sales $2.56B, down 5% YoY
- ▸Q2 adjusted EPS $0.51, down 31% YoY
- ▸Shares declined 7.1% following earnings release
- ▸Stock down 44.5% over past 52 weeks
- ▸Consensus analyst rating remains Hold with $24.18 price target
Campbell Soup fair value estimate cut 18% to $25.94 following Q2 earnings miss
- ▸Analyst fair value estimate reduced 18% to $25.94 from $31.56
- ▸FY26 outlook reset following Q2 earnings miss
- ▸Snacks segment underperformance and high leverage cited as primary bearish concerns
- ▸Target to mandate synthetic-free cereals by May, impacting packaged food suppliers
- ▸Repurchased 56,667 shares for $1.59M under December 2024 buyback program
Campbell’s Q4 revenue falls 5%, organic sales down 3% amid snack business weakness
- ▸Revenue fell 5% YoY
- ▸Organic sales declined 3%
- ▸Stock hit 17-year low following earnings report
- ▸Snack business performance described as 'unbelievably bad'
- ▸Dividend sustainability concerns raised by market analysts
CPB Q4 revenue $2.56B misses estimates, EPS $0.51 misses by 10.6%, guidance cut
- ▸Revenue $2.56B vs $2.61B estimate, down 4.5% YoY
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.51 vs $0.57 estimate, 10.6% miss
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $384M vs $407.2M estimate, 5.7% miss
- ▸FY Adjusted EPS guidance lowered to $2.20 midpoint, 11.1% decrease
- ▸Operating margin contracted to 10.6% from 12.2% YoY
CPB revenue falls 5% as organic sales drop 3% to 17-year stock low
- ▸Revenue declined 5% YoY
- ▸Organic sales decreased 3%
- ▸Snack business segment performance described as 'unbelievably bad'
- ▸Stock price hit 17-year low following earnings report
- ▸Rao’s acquisition gains offset by Prego brand weakness
Piper Sandler cuts Campbell's price target to $28; appoints new IR chief
- ▸Piper Sandler lowers CPB price target to $28 from $34
- ▸Maintains Neutral rating citing retail volume pressure
- ▸Projects Q3 earnings of $0.57/share and $2.6B revenue
- ▸Joshua Levine appointed Chief Investor Relations Officer effective March 18, 2026
- ▸Levine succeeds retiring IR head Rebecca Gardy
Campbell Soup Q2 revenue $2.56B misses estimates, EPS $0.51 misses by 10%
- ▸Q2 revenue $2.564B, down 4.5% YoY, missing $2.611B estimate
- ▸EPS $0.51 vs $0.57 estimate, a 10.5% miss
- ▸Snacks segment revenue $914M, down 6% YoY; operating earnings plummeted 39%
- ▸FY26 EPS guidance cut to $2.15–$2.25 from $2.40–$2.55
- ▸Meals & Beverages revenue $1.65B, down 4% YoY; U.S. soup sales down 4%
CPB Q4 Revenue $2.56B Misses Estimates, EPS $0.51 Misses by 10.6%
- ▸Q4 revenue $2.56B, down 4.5% YoY and 1.6% below estimates
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.51, missing consensus estimates of $0.57 by 10.6%
- ▸FY Adjusted EPS guidance lowered to $2.20 midpoint, an 11.1% decrease
- ▸Operating margin contracted to 10.6% from 12.2% year-over-year
- ▸Sales volumes declined 4% YoY amid execution challenges and competitive pressure