CSX
IndustrialsCSX Corporation
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2010–2025(16yr)| Metric | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.6B | $11.7B | $11.8B | $12.0B | $12.7B | $11.8B | $11.1B | $11.4B | $12.3B | $11.9B | $10.6B | $12.5B | $14.9B | $14.7B | $14.5B | $14.1B | -3.1% |
| Operating Income | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.5B | $3.5B | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.9B | $5.0B | $4.4B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $5.6B | $5.2B | $4.5B | -13.8% |
| Operating Margin | 28.9% | 29.1% | 29.4% | 28.9% | 28.5% | 30.3% | 30.6% | 32.1% | 39.7% | 41.6% | 41.2% | 44.7% | 40.6% | 37.9% | 36.1% | 32.1% | -4.0pp |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $5.5B | $3.3B | $3.3B | $2.8B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $3.7B | $3.5B | $2.9B | -16.7% |
| Net Margin | 14.7% | 15.5% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 15.5% | 48.0% | 27.0% | 27.9% | 26.1% | 30.2% | 28.0% | 25.3% | 23.9% | 20.5% | -3.4pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.2B | $605.0M | $954.0M | $894.0M | $808.0M | $643.0M | $1.4B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $2.7B | $1.7B | -37.0% |
| FCF Margin | 13.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 12.6% | 23.6% | 26.7% | 24.9% | 26.4% | 23.5% | 22.3% | 18.7% | 12.1% | -6.6pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.06 | $1.67 | $1.79 | $1.83 | $1.92 | $2.00 | $1.81 | $5.99 | $3.84 | $4.17 | $3.60 | $1.68 | $1.95 | $1.85 | $1.79 | $1.54 | -14.0% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
CSX is currently a story of efficiency meeting its limits. While CSX Corporation maintains a massive 20,000-mile network and a "scheduled service plan" designed for optimization, it is seeing a clear erosion in profitability, with net margins falling from 23.9% to 20.5% in a single year (XBRL). CSX Corporation is now attempting a "cultural transformation" under new leadership to protect its cost structure as industrial demand softens (8-K).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "scheduled service plan" (Business) is threatened by "regulatory and legislative actions" (Risks) because new rules from the Surface Transportation Board (STB) regarding "competitive access" could restrict the ability of CSX to independently negotiate prices and optimize its network (Competitive Position). Furthermore, the "cost and environmental advantage" CSX holds over trucking (Competitive Position) is threatened by its status as a "common carrier" (Risks). Because CSX is legally mandated to transport hazardous materials, a single accident could result in remediation costs and penalties that exceed its insurance limits, potentially erasing the cost benefits of rail transport (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
CSX is currently the laggard in its peer group for growth, posting a 3.1% revenue decline while rail and logistics peers like Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern saw positive growth (Peer Benchmarking). This divergence is driven by lower merchandise volume and reduced export coal revenue (8-K). While management cites "productivity and cost control" as priorities, the full-year operating margin has already slipped from 36.1% to 32.1% (XBRL). The $50 million restructuring charge in the fourth quarter of 2025—related to severance and technology rationalization—suggests that the transition under the new CEO is requiring immediate cash outlays to reset the cost base (8-K).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 19.7x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, CSX is priced exactly in line with the peer median (Peer Benchmarking). At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 6.4% long-term growth (Computed Valuation). This expectation is difficult to reconcile with CSX Corporation's actual trajectory; CSX trails both Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern in net margin and free cash flow margin (Peer Benchmarking). For the current price to be right, CSX would need to achieve an implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth of 8.5%, supported by its 2.2% buyback yield (Computed Valuation). However, if growth slows to a GDP-paced 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests the justified multiple would fall to 11.2x, representing significant downside (Computed Valuation).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if the operating margin continues to slide toward 30%, signaling that "cost structure adjustments" are failing to offset the "subdued industrial demand" (8-K).
- Constructive if intermodal volume growth accelerates enough to offset the structural weakness and lower revenue currently seen in the export coal segment (8-K).
- Cautious if the STB implements new "revenue adequacy" rules that cap CSX Corporation's pricing power (Competitive Position).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A 20,000-mile fixed rail network with access to 70 port terminals that provides a three-to-four times fuel efficiency advantage over long-haul trucking.
Bottom Line: CSX is a high-quality infrastructure asset currently priced for growth it is not yet delivering, making the stock a risky bet until margins stabilize under new leadership.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Cybersecurity and Technology Failure: CSX Corporation relies on information technology for all aspects of its business. A successful cyber-attack or system failure could result in train accidents, misappropriation of confidential information, or process failures, leading to significant legal, regulatory, or financial exposure.
- Regulatory and Legislative Changes: New rules from agencies including the STB, FRA, PHMSA, TSA, and EPA could increase operating costs, adversely impact revenue, or reduce operating efficiencies. Legislation may also impose price constraints or restrict access to government funding.
- Hazardous Materials Transport: As a common carrier, CSX Corporation is legally mandated to transport hazardous materials. Non-compliance with safety regulations or accidents involving these materials could result in significant penalties, litigation, and remediation costs.
- Network and Supply Chain Constraints: Operational fluidity is threatened by locomotive or crew shortages, labor disruptions, unpredictable demand, and infrastructure capacity changes, which can lead to the deterioration of service and asset utilization.
- Severe Weather and Natural Occurrences: Events such as floods, hurricanes, fires, and earthquakes can damage track structures and equipment, cause workforce unavailability, and lead to catastrophic service interruptions that exceed insurance coverage.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Coal Market Dynamics: Changes in U.S. and global energy markets, specifically the reduction of coal-fired power generation, directly impact coal volumes and revenues for CSX Corporation.
- Collective Bargaining: Most employees are represented by labor unions; failure to negotiate acceptable collective bargaining agreements could result in strikes or work stoppages, leading to loss of business and increased wage costs.
- Rail Equipment Supply Chain: The unique nature of core rail equipment limits the number of suppliers. If a manufacturer stops production or experiences a shortage, CSX Corporation could face significant cost increases or material shortages.
- Infrastructure Maintenance Burden: Unlike some competitors that use public rights-of-way maintained by the government, CSX Corporation must build and maintain its rail network largely using internal resources.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Common Carrier Mandate: CSX Corporation is legally required to transport certain hazardous materials regardless of risk, exposing CSX Corporation to significant costs and claims in the event of an accident.
- Environmental Liability: CSX Corporation is subject to wide-ranging environmental laws regarding emissions and waste disposal. It may be held liable for cleanup costs on currently owned, leased, or formerly owned properties, which may exceed recorded reserves.
- Litigation Exposure: CSX Corporation faces ongoing claims related to commercial practices, labor matters, and personal injury. Final judgments may exceed insurance coverage or differ materially from established reserves.
- Climate Disclosure Requirements: CSX Corporation may face increased regulatory and reputational risk if its climate-related disclosures fail to meet evolving legal requirements or stakeholder expectations.
4. Financial Impact Map
Cybersecurity Incidents → Operating Expenses → Significant expenses in excess of existing cybersecurity insurance coverage. Regulatory Changes → Operating Expenses → Increased costs to comply with new safety, security, and environmental mandates. Hazardous Materials Accidents → Operating Expenses / Cash Reserves → Significant costs and claims for personal injury, property damage, and environmental remediation that may exceed insurance. Severe Weather → Property, Plant and Equipment / Operating Expenses → Capital expenditures for track and equipment repair and potential loss of business revenue. Coal Market Decline → Revenue → Reduced coal volume and lower coal revenue due to decreased demand for coal-fired power generation.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Jan 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
CSX Raises Quarterly Dividend 7.7% to $0.14; Signs $670M Wabtec Locomotive Deal
- ▸Quarterly dividend increased to $0.14 per share, payable March 13, 2026
- ▸Signed $670 million agreement with Wabtec for 100 Evolution Series locomotives
- ▸Fair value estimate adjusted to $40.81 per share by Simply Wall St
- ▸Q1 year-to-date carloads grew 1.9%, missing prior 4.4% growth estimates
- ▸Train derailment in Kentucky caused chemical leak and temporary shelter-in-place order
CSX faces $20M-$30M Q1 fuel surcharge headwind amid weather-related network disruptions
- ▸Fuel surcharge lag creates $20M–$30M Q1 earnings headwind
- ▸Network performance remains strong despite early-year weather disruptions
- ▸Automotive production forecast down 1.5%, sales down 2%
- ▸Domestic coal demand expected to remain strong through year-end
- ▸Major auto plant retooling to impact volumes through Q1 next year
CSX Q4 revenue $3.51B flat YoY, misses analyst estimates by 0.9%
- ▸CSX Q4 revenue $3.51B, flat YoY, missed estimates by 0.9%
- ▸CSX missed analyst adjusted operating income and EBITDA estimates
- ▸XPO Q4 revenue $2.01B, +4.7% YoY, beat estimates by 2.9%
- ▸Transportation and logistics sector revenues in line with consensus
- ▸Sector share prices down 8.2% on average since Q4 earnings
BofA cuts CSX price target to $46 from $48, maintains Buy rating
- ▸BofA cuts 2026 EPS estimate by 2% to $1.80
- ▸Q1-to-date carload growth 1.9%, below prior 4.4% estimate
- ▸Full-year 2026 carload growth modeled at 2.3%
- ▸Management targets 200-300 bps operating margin expansion in 2026
- ▸Free cash flow projected to grow at least 50% versus 2025
Bank of America raises CSX price target to $48, reiterates Buy rating
- ▸Bank of America raised CSX price target to $48 from $41
- ▸2026 operating margins projected to expand 200–300 basis points
- ▸2026 capital expenditures planned below $2.4B
- ▸Free cash flow expected to increase at least 50% versus 2025
- ▸Management shifts to single-year guidance model starting 2026