DAL
IndustrialsDelta Air Lines
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2009–2025(17yr)| Metric | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.1B | $31.8B | $35.1B | $36.7B | $37.8B | $40.4B | $40.7B | $39.6B | $41.2B | $44.4B | $47.0B | $17.1B | $29.9B | $50.6B | $58.0B | $61.6B | $63.4B | +2.8% |
| Operating Income | -$324.0M | $2.2B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $3.4B | $2.2B | $7.8B | $7.0B | $6.1B | $5.3B | $6.6B | -$12.5B | $1.9B | $3.7B | $5.5B | $6.0B | $5.8B | -2.9% |
| Operating Margin | -1.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 14.1% | -72.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | -0.5pp |
| Net Income | -$1.2B | $593.0M | $854.0M | $1.0B | $10.5B | $659.0M | $4.5B | $4.4B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.8B | -$12.4B | $280.0M | $1.3B | $4.6B | $3.5B | $5.0B | +44.8% |
| Net Margin | -4.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 27.9% | 1.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | -72.4% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | +2.3pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $508.0M | $1.9B | $2.7B | $5.0B | $3.8B | $1.3B | $1.8B | $3.5B | -$5.7B | $17.0M | -$3.0M | $1.1B | $2.9B | $3.8B | +33.2% |
| FCF Margin | 4.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.4% | -33.3% | 0.1% | -0.0% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | +1.4pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.50 | $0.70 | $1.01 | $1.19 | $12.29 | $0.78 | $5.63 | $5.79 | $4.95 | $5.67 | $7.30 | $-19.49 | $0.44 | $2.06 | $7.17 | $5.33 | $7.66 | +43.7% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Delta Air Lines is no longer just an airline; it is an engineering and loyalty business that happens to fly planes. By generating significant revenue from its TechOps maintenance division and its American Express partnership, Delta has built a "financial foundation" that allowed it to regain investment-grade ratings while outperforming most peers on net margins (XBRL).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Delta’s "Operational Reliability" is the cornerstone of its brand, yet this strength is increasingly vulnerable to IT infrastructure failures. The July 2024 CrowdStrike outage demonstrated that even a workforce of 100,000 cannot overcome systemic software disruptions, which lead to immediate revenue loss and brand damage (Risks). Furthermore, the "Global Network" advantage is threatened by the Department of Transportation’s 2025 order to terminate antitrust immunity for the Aeroméxico partnership. This regulatory shift creates direct uncertainty for the financial returns of Delta’s international joint ventures, which are central to its long-term strategy (Competitive Position).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company that is significantly more efficient than its peers at converting revenue into profit, despite a heavy physical cost base. While Delta has the lowest gross margin in its peer group at 20.5%, it maintains the second-highest operating margin at 9.1% (Peer Benchmarking). This suggests that Delta’s "People and Culture" and AI-driven gating and routing models are successfully squeezing more profit out of every dollar than rivals like United or American.
The growth trajectory is shifting toward high-margin diversification. While total revenue grew 2.8% over the last twelve months, specific segments are moving much faster: Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) revenue surged 25% in 2025, and Cargo rose 9% (8-K). This shift explains why management expects to generate $3 billion to $4 billion in free cash flow in 2026 despite the inherent "commodity-like nature" of ticket sales. With short interest at a negligible 2.5% of the float, there is little evidence of a coordinated market bet against this structural pivot (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 7.3x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Delta is attractively valued, trading at a 43% discount to the peer median of 12.7x. According to the CAPM analysis, the current price implies the market expects only 0.5% long-term growth. This seems overly conservative given that Delta’s own 2026 guidance forecasts EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth of 20% at the mid-point (8-K).
If Delta achieves even a modest GDP-paced growth of 2.5%, the justified multiple would rise to 10.6x (CAPM analysis). The steep discount currently applied to the stock is likely a "risk premium" for two factors: the $12.3 billion in net debt and the fact that Delta purchases fuel at market indices with "no material protection" against price spikes (Competitive Position). For the current price to be "right," one would have to believe that fuel prices will rise sharply enough to wipe out the 20% earnings growth projected for 2026.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if fuel expenses rise above 21% of total operating costs, as Delta lacks the hedging contracts to mitigate rapid price increases.
- Constructive if the judicial review of the Aeroméxico agreement restores antitrust immunity, securing the stability of the international network.
- Constructive if free cash flow reaches the upper bound of the $4 billion 2026 target, which would accelerate debt reduction from the current $12.3 billion level.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: High-margin revenue diversification through TechOps maintenance and the SkyMiles ecosystem, paired with industry-leading operational reliability. Bottom Line: Delta is a premier operator priced as a laggard, offering a compelling entry point if it hits its $3 billion+ free cash flow targets.
Top 5 Material Risks
- Fuel Price Volatility: Aircraft fuel represents a major operating expense, ranging from 17% to 21% of total operating costs between 2023 and 2025. Because ticket prices are often set in advance, Delta Air Lines cannot always pass rapid fuel price increases to customers.
- Information Technology Disruptions: Delta Air Lines relies on complex IT infrastructure, including cloud-based systems and third-party applications. A significant failure, such as the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage, can disrupt operations, damage the brand, and lead to material financial losses.
- Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: Delta Air Lines processes high volumes of sensitive personal and business data. Evolving threats, including AI-enhanced cyberattacks, expose Delta Air Lines to potential remedial costs, legal liabilities, and regulatory fines.
- Strategic Partnership Risks: Delta Air Lines’ global network strategy relies on joint ventures and equity investments. The DOT’s 2025 order to terminate antitrust immunity for the Aeroméxico partnership creates uncertainty regarding the financial viability of these international cooperation agreements.
- Operational Reliability and Safety: Any serious accident involving Delta Air Lines or its partners could result in significant liability exceeding insurance coverage and cause long-term damage to public perception and demand.
Company-Specific Risks
- Monroe Refinery Operations: Delta Air Lines owns a refinery that is subject to hazards like fires or explosions. Unplanned production interruptions or the inability to secure adequate insurance for environmental incidents could negatively impact consolidated financial results.
- Renewable Fuel Obligations: Under the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Monroe refinery must purchase Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in the secondary market. Volatility in RIN prices directly impacts the refinery’s production costs.
- Labor Relations: Approximately 20% of the workforce is unionized. Under the Railway Labor Act, labor disputes or work stoppages could materially disrupt operations.
- Sustainability Goal Execution: Delta Air Lines has established greenhouse gas reduction goals that currently lack the necessary technology and fuel sources (such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel at scale) to achieve, creating potential reputational and financial risk if progress stalls.
Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Environmental Regulation: The EPA’s classification of PFAS as "hazardous substances" under CERCLA may subject Delta Air Lines to cleanup liabilities related to firefighting foams used at airports and refineries.
- International Emissions Mandates: The EU’s SAF mandate, which requires 2% of jet fuel to be SAF as of 2025 (increasing to 70% by 2050), and the potential application of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to international flights, threaten to increase operating costs.
- Air Traffic Control (ATC) Constraints: Inefficiencies in the FAA-regulated ATC system, including staffing shortages, can lead to flight delays and capacity constraints, increasing operational costs.
Financial Impact Map
Fuel Price Volatility → Operating Expense → Represented 17% of operating expense in 2025, 19% in 2024, and 21% in 2023. IT Infrastructure Failure → Revenue and Operating Expense → Disruptions result in loss of revenue and increased remedial/recovery costs. Cybersecurity Breach → Operating Expense → Potential for material remedial, legal, and regulatory costs. Joint Venture Termination (Aeroméxico) → Revenue and Operating Income → Potential impairment of investments and loss of network-related revenue. Monroe Refinery Environmental Incident → Consolidated Financial Position → Potential for material liabilities and cleanup costs not covered by insurance.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Jan 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Allegiant Q1 EPS $3.77 beats $3.40 estimate; revenue $732.4M rises 4.8% YoY
- ▸Q1 EPS $3.77 beats consensus estimate of $3.40
- ▸Q1 revenue $732.4M, up 4.8% YoY, beats estimate of $711.9M
- ▸Load factor increased to 84.4% from 80.5% year-over-year
- ▸Q2 capacity expected to decrease 6.5% YoY
- ▸Sun Country acquisition expected to close by mid-May
Delta-American Express co-branded credit card partnership generates $8B in 2025 revenue
- ▸Co-branded credit card partnership generated $8B revenue in 2025
- ▸Partnership revenue accounts for approximately 10% of Delta's total annual revenue
- ▸Cardholder spending nears 1% of total U.S. GDP annually
- ▸Relationship originated in 1996 with co-branded SkyMiles credit card
- ▸American Express provided $1B capital boost to Delta in 2008
Delta Q1 expenses to rise $400M on jet-fuel costs; Citi cuts price target to $77
- ▸Q1 expenses projected to increase $400M due to surging jet-fuel prices
- ▸Citigroup maintains Buy rating but cuts price target from $87 to $77
- ▸Downside risk identified for Q1, Q2, and full-year 2026 earnings estimates
- ▸U.S. airlines largely unhedged against current jet-fuel price volatility
- ▸Strong booking trends allow for upward revision of revenue outlook despite cost pressures
Delta Q4 revenue $16B +2.9% YoY, beats estimates by 1.6%
- ▸Q4 revenue $16B, up 2.9% YoY, beating estimates by 1.6%
- ▸Generated $5B pre-tax profit with double-digit operating margin
- ▸Record free cash flow of $4.6B for the year
- ▸Next quarter EPS guidance missed analyst expectations
- ▸Travel sector stocks averaged 4.4% decline post-earnings
Delta Air Lines Raises Q1 Revenue Forecast Amid Strong Travel Demand and Corporate Growth
- ▸Raised Q1 2026 revenue forecast citing strong demand
- ▸2025 free cash flow reached $4.5 billion
- ▸2025 sales increased 25% year-over-year
- ▸American Express partnership generated $8 billion in revenue last year
- ▸Corporate travel bookings up double digits
Jefferies and Evercore ISI Lower Delta Air Lines Price Targets Amid Rising Fuel Costs
- ▸Jefferies cut DAL price target to $72 from $84
- ▸Evercore ISI cut DAL price target to $80 from $85
- ▸Jet fuel prices up ~50% since January guidance
- ▸Q1 fuel cost estimates increased by ~14%
- ▸Q2 fuel cost estimates increased by ~30%
Delta Raises Q1 Revenue Growth Guidance Despite $400M Surge in Fuel Costs
- ▸Raised Q1 revenue growth guidance to high single digits from 5-7% prior
- ▸Absorbing $400M in additional fuel costs due to Iran conflict escalation
- ▸2025 free cash flow $4.64B, up 61% YoY
- ▸Q4 2025 main cabin ticket revenue $5.62B, down 7%
- ▸Maintains full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $6.50–$7.50
Delta and American Airlines raise Q1 revenue guidance to 7-9% on strong travel demand
- ▸Revenue guidance raised to 7-9% from previous 5-7% range
- ▸Strong demand for premium and loyalty business products driving growth
- ▸Delta expects $400M increase in March fuel costs versus prior year
- ▸Airlines actively raising ticket prices to offset rising jet fuel expenses
- ▸Capacity adjustments implemented to maintain margins amid inflationary pressures
Delta raises Q1 revenue growth outlook to high-single digits on strong travel demand
- ▸Q1 revenue growth outlook raised to high-single digits from 5-7%
- ▸Maintained Q1 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.50 to $0.90
- ▸Strong demand reported across main cabin, premium seating, and loyalty programs
- ▸Jet fuel prices up over 50% since late February
- ▸Management considering capacity adjustments due to elevated fuel costs
Delta and American Airlines raise Q1 revenue forecasts on strong spring travel demand
- ▸Delta raises Q1 revenue forecast citing accelerated consumer and corporate demand
- ▸American Airlines Q1 revenue growth expected to exceed 10%, beating 7-10% prior guidance
- ▸Airlines implementing fare increases to offset surge in jet fuel costs
- ▸American Airlines expects adjusted loss per share at lower end of previous guidance
- ▸Industry capacity discipline maintained to mitigate impact of elevated fuel prices