DG
DefensiveDollar General
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2010–2025(16yr)| Metric | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.8B | $13.0B | $14.8B | $16.0B | $17.5B | $18.9B | $20.4B | $22.0B | $23.5B | $25.6B | $27.8B | $33.7B | $34.2B | $37.8B | $38.7B | $40.6B | +5.0% |
| Gross Profit | $3.7B | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.1B | $5.4B | $5.8B | $6.3B | $6.8B | $7.2B | $7.8B | $8.5B | $10.7B | $10.8B | $11.8B | $11.7B | $12.0B | +2.5% |
| Gross Margin | 31.3% | 32.0% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.1% | 30.7% | 31.0% | 30.8% | 30.8% | 30.5% | 30.6% | 31.8% | 31.6% | 31.2% | 30.3% | 29.6% | -0.7pp |
| Operating Income | $953.3M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $3.6B | $3.2B | $3.3B | $2.4B | $1.7B | -29.9% |
| Operating Margin | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | -2.1pp |
| Net Income | $339.4M | $627.9M | $766.7M | $952.7M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $2.7B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $1.7B | $1.1B | -32.3% |
| Net Margin | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | -1.5pp |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | $886.9M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $2.8B | $1.8B | $424.0M | $691.6M | $1.7B | +143.8% |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 4.2% | +2.4pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.04 | $1.82 | $2.22 | $2.85 | $3.17 | $3.49 | $3.95 | $4.43 | $5.63 | $5.97 | $6.64 | $10.62 | $10.17 | $10.68 | $7.55 | $5.11 | -32.3% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Dollar General is currently a story of operational resilience masking structural fragility. While it is outgrowing its peers by leaning into its rural monopoly and "everyday low price" model, its reliance on a financially strained demographic makes it highly vulnerable to macro shifts. Dollar General is effectively trading long-term margin stability for immediate market share, as evidenced by a sales mix increasingly dominated by low-margin consumables.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "Everyday Low Prices" strategy (10-K Item 1) is directly threatened by the "Economic Sensitivity" of its core customer (Risks). Because many customers rely on fixed incomes or government assistance, inflation forces a shift toward "lower-margin products" like consumables, which saw $8.82 billion in sales this quarter (10-Q). This shift limits the profit potential of the 2.5% increase in customer traffic.
Furthermore, the "Convenient Locations" advantage is being eroded by "Inventory Shrinkage." High levels of theft and damages have not only impacted results but contributed to actual store closures and asset impairments (Risks). The small-box format, designed for "in and out" shopping, becomes a liability when it cannot be cost-effectively secured against the "elevated levels" of shrink cited by management (10-Q).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Dollar General’s financial profile reveals a sharp divergence between top-line momentum and bottom-line efficiency. Dollar General leads its peer group with 5.0% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth (XBRL), significantly outperforming Target (-0.8%) and Kroger (-1.9%). However, this growth has not translated into margin leadership; its 3.1% net margin ranks 4th of 6 peers, trailing Kimberly-Clark's 11.7% (XBRL).
The most recent quarter showed a 4.6% sales increase, slightly below the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter average, yet net income surged 43.8% (10-Q). This suggests that while sales growth is moderating, management is successfully extracting profit through operational discipline, specifically the five consecutive quarters of progress in reducing shrink (10-Q). Short interest stands at 3.6% of the float (Yahoo Finance), indicating that while the market remains wary of the retail sector, there is no massive speculative bet against Dollar General’s recovery.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a 20.3x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in approximately 0.8% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This valuation represents a 43% premium to the peer median of 14.2x. This premium is justified by Dollar General’s superior growth profile—it is the only company in its immediate peer set currently delivering mid-single-digit revenue increases.
The 0.8% implied growth rate appears modest when compared to the actual 2.5% same-store sales growth reported in the most recent quarter (10-Q). If Dollar General can maintain its current trajectory, the sensitivity analysis suggests significant upside; a move toward GDP-paced growth (2.5%) would justify a 31.2x multiple. However, the primary factor that could compress this multiple is "Competitive Intensity," as larger retailers with "greater financial resources" enhance their digital offerings to challenge Dollar General’s rural dominance (10-K Item 1).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the five-quarter trend of reducing inventory shrink continues, as this is the clearest path to expanding operating margins without relying on a turnaround in consumer spending.
- Cautious if the "Consumables" category continues to grow faster than "Seasonal" or "Home" products (10-Q), as this would signal a permanent shift toward a lower-margin business mix.
- Cautious if the evaluation of the pOpshelf concept results in further impairment charges beyond those recorded in late 2024 (Risks).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A dominant rural footprint where 80% of stores serve towns of 20,000 or fewer, combined with high purchasing power derived from a strictly limited SKU count.
Bottom Line: Dollar General is a growth leader in a stagnant sector, and while its premium valuation is high, it is supported by a conservative market-implied growth target that Dollar General is currently exceeding.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Economic Sensitivity: Many Dollar General customers have fixed or low incomes; factors such as inflation, unemployment, or the reduction of government assistance programs can decrease disposable income, leading to lower sales or a shift toward lower-margin products.
- Strategic Execution: The effectiveness of initiatives like pOpshelf, digital marketing, and store remodels is uncertain; failure to execute these plans cost-effectively can materially harm financial results, as seen with the significant impairment expense recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Inventory Shrinkage: Dollar General experiences significant inventory shrinkage and damages, which remained at elevated levels throughout 2024, impacting results and contributing to the closure of certain stores.
- Competitive Intensity: The retail market is highly competitive regarding price and store location; Dollar General may be forced to lower prices to maintain its position, which reduces margins and profitability.
- Real Estate and Expansion: Delays in opening, relocating, or remodeling stores—or failure to meet financial expectations for these projects—can impede growth, particularly as elevated inflation and interest rates pressure new store returns.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Supply Chain Concentration: Dollar General relies heavily on a small number of suppliers, with the two largest accounting for approximately 11% and 8% of purchases in 2024, respectively.
- Import Exposure: While Dollar General directly imported approximately 4% of its purchases in 2024, a substantial amount of its merchandise is sourced from China, exposing Dollar General to risks from tariffs, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions.
- Inventory Management: As of January 31, 2025, inventory represented approximately 47% of total assets (excluding goodwill, operating lease assets, and other intangible assets), making efficient management critical to avoiding markdowns and storage costs.
- Credit Rating Outlook: In 2024, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s changed the outlook for Dollar General from “Stable” to “Negative,” which could increase the cost of borrowing and restrict access to capital markets.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Wage Regulation: Significant or rapid increases in federal, state, or local minimum wage rates could adversely affect operating results if Dollar General cannot offset these costs elsewhere.
- Data Privacy: Dollar General is subject to industry data protection standards like the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standards; failure to comply or a security breach could lead to fines, litigation, and reputational harm.
- Government Benefits: Changes in government budgeting priorities could reduce funding for programs like SNAP, upon which many Dollar General customers depend.
- Environmental Compliance: New regulations regarding greenhouse gas emissions, carbon taxes, or product labeling could increase operating or merchandise costs.
4. Financial Impact Map
Economic Factors → Sales and Gross Margin → Decreased disposable income leads to lower sales or shifts to lower-margin product choices. Strategic Initiatives (pOpshelf) → Impairment Expense → Significant charges recorded in Q4 2024 due to underperforming store concepts. Inventory Shrinkage → Results of Operations → Elevated levels in 2024 materially impacted financial performance and contributed to store closures. Competitive Pricing → Gross Margin → Need to lower prices to maintain market share limits the ability to offset increased costs. Debt Leverage → Interest Expense and Liquidity → Increased debt levels and negative credit outlooks may increase the cost of financing and reduce capital flexibility.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Dec 2025 | — |
| 10-Q | Dec 2025 | Oct 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
| 10-K | Mar 2025 | Jan 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Vinci Highways Acquires Safeway Concessions Portfolio to Expand Indian Infrastructure Footprint
- ▸Acquired Safeway Concessions portfolio of Indian toll road assets
- ▸Portfolio covers nearly 700 kilometers of highway capacity
- ▸Assets operate under long-term concession contracts in industrial corridors
- ▸Vinci shares trading at €131.60, approximately 7.5% below analyst target
- ▸Company flagged for high debt levels and dividend stability concerns
Dollar General Project Elevate drives 3% same-store sales lift, reduces manager turnover 375 bps
- ▸Project Elevate generates approximately 3% same-store sales lift
- ▸Store manager turnover reduced by 375 basis points in fiscal 2025
- ▸Planned acceleration to 2,250 Project Elevate remodels in fiscal 2026
- ▸Program enhances up to 80% of store physical assets and merchandising
- ▸Dollar General shares up 33.3% over the past year
Dollar General appoints Jerry Fleeman as CEO effective January 1, 2027
- ▸Jerry W. Fleeman Jr. appointed CEO effective January 1, 2027
- ▸Todd Vasos to remain as senior advisor and director post-transition
- ▸FY2026 guidance: net sales growth 3.7%–4.2%
- ▸FY2026 guidance: diluted EPS $7.10–$7.35
- ▸Long-term projection: $46.9B revenue and $1.7B earnings by 2028
VINCI to acquire nine Indian highway concessions for 150 billion rupees
- ▸Acquiring Safeway Concessions portfolio of nine toll highways in India
- ▸Enterprise value approximately 150 billion Indian rupees (~15x EBITDA)
- ▸Portfolio spans nearly 700 km of key national highway network
- ▸Concession maturities range from 2048 to 2058
- ▸Financial closing expected by end of 2026 pending regulatory approval
Dollar General Q4 EPS $1.93 beats, FY26 EPS guidance $7.10–$7.35
- ▸Q4 net sales $10.9B, +5.9% YoY
- ▸Same-store sales +4.3%, driven by 2.6% traffic increase
- ▸Q4 diluted EPS $1.93, up from $0.87 YoY
- ▸Operating profit more than doubled to $606.3M
- ▸Piper Sandler raises price target to $133, maintains Neutral rating
VINCI initiates €250 million share buyback program effective March 26 through May 7
- ▸Authorized share buyback program capped at €250 million
- ▸Agreement signed with investment services provider on March 25, 2026
- ▸Execution period runs from March 26, 2026, to May 7, 2026
- ▸Purchase price limited by Shareholders' Meeting maximum price mandate
Dollar General names Ahold Delhaize USA CEO Jerry Fleeman Jr as next CEO
- ▸Jerry Fleeman Jr appointed CEO effective January 1, 2027
- ▸Current CEO Todd Vasos to transition to senior adviser role through April 2027
- ▸FY25 net sales $42.72B, +5.2% YoY
- ▸FY25 diluted EPS $6.85, +34.1% YoY
- ▸FY26 net sales growth projected at 3.7% to 4.2%
Dollar General Q4 EPS $1.93 beats by $0.29, revenue $10.9B up 5.8% YoY
- ▸Q4 EPS $1.93, beating analyst expectations by $0.29
- ▸Q4 revenue $10.9B, up 5.8% YoY and $80M above estimates
- ▸Baupost Group reduced DG position by over 22% in Q4 2025
- ▸Baupost Group current holding stands at approximately 2 million shares
- ▸Position was initially re-opened in Q3 2024 with 2.3 million shares
Dollar General Q4 Revenue and Profit Beat Analyst Expectations
- ▸Q4 revenue and profit exceeded analyst expectations
- ▸Focus shifting to $1 price-point items and nonconsumable category expansion
- ▸Same-store sales growth linked to increased customer traffic
- ▸Shares trading at $124.52, approximately 16% below analyst price target of $148.57
- ▸Valuation metrics include 18.1x P/E ratio versus 19.2x industry average
Dollar General Q4 revenue $10.91B +5.9% YoY, beats estimates by 0.9%
- ▸Q4 revenue $10.91B, up 5.9% YoY, beating estimates by 0.9%
- ▸Reported beats on both EBITDA and EPS analyst consensus estimates
- ▸Stock price declined 12.4% since earnings release to $126.92
- ▸Target Q4 revenue $30.45B, down 1.5% YoY, in line with estimates
- ▸Grocery Outlet Q4 revenue $1.22B, up 10.7% YoY, missing estimates by 0.6%