EXC

Utilities

Exelon

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$18.9B	$17.3B	$18.6B	$18.9B	$23.5B	$24.9B	$27.4B	$29.4B	$31.4B	$33.5B	$36.0B	$34.4B	$33.0B	$36.3B	$19.1B	$21.7B	$23.0B	$24.3B	+5.3%
Operating Income	$5.3B	$4.8B	$4.7B	$4.5B	$2.4B	$3.7B	$3.1B	$4.4B	$3.1B	$4.3B	$3.9B	$4.4B	$2.8B	$2.7B	$3.3B	$4.0B	$4.3B	$5.1B	+19.2%
Operating Margin	28.1%	27.4%	25.3%	23.7%	10.1%	14.7%	11.3%	15.0%	9.9%	12.7%	10.8%	12.7%	8.5%	7.5%	17.4%	18.5%	18.8%	21.2%	+2.5pp
Net Income	$2.7B	$2.7B	$2.6B	$2.5B	$1.2B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.3B	$1.2B	$3.8B	$2.1B	$3.0B	$2.0B	$1.8B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.5B	$2.8B	+12.5%
Net Margin	14.5%	15.6%	13.7%	13.2%	5.0%	6.9%	6.6%	7.6%	3.8%	11.5%	5.8%	8.8%	5.9%	5.0%	11.4%	10.7%	10.7%	11.4%	+0.7pp
Free Cash Flow	$3.4B	$2.8B	$1.9B	$811.0M	$342.0M	$948.0M	-$1.6B	-$8.0M	-$108.0M	-$104.0M	$1.1B	-$589.0M	-$3.8B	-$5.0B	-$2.3B	-$2.7B	-$1.5B	-$2.3B	-48.9%
FCF Margin	18.2%	16.3%	10.3%	4.3%	1.5%	3.8%	-5.9%	-0.0%	-0.3%	-0.3%	2.9%	-1.7%	-11.5%	-13.7%	-11.9%	-12.4%	-6.6%	-9.4%	-2.7pp
EPS (Diluted)	$4.13	$4.09	$3.87	$3.75	$1.42	$2.00	$1.88	$2.54	$1.22	$3.97	$2.07	$3.01	$2.01	$1.74	$2.18	$2.33	$2.45	$2.71	+10.5%

Total Debt$49.4B

Cash & Equiv.$626.0M

Net Debt$48.8B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Exelon has tethered its future to a massive $41 billion capital plan, transforming itself into a pure-play transmission and distribution engine. By offloading power generation to focus exclusively on delivery, it has traded the volatility of commodity markets for the political and regulatory friction of six different jurisdictions.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Exelon’s "shared utilities platform" (10-K Item 1) is intended to drive efficiency through scale, but this advantage is threatened by "multi-jurisdictional regulation" (Competitive Position). Because earnings depend on the "timing and sufficiency" of rate recoveries across disparate state commissions, a single unfavorable ruling can disrupt the financial returns of the entire platform (Risks).

Furthermore, the $41 billion investment plan (10-K Item 1) is directly threatened by "Credit and Liquidity Risk" (Risks). Any credit downgrade below investment grade would trigger collateral requirements, forcing Exelon to post significant cash or letters of credit, which would starve the very capital projects intended to drive its 7.9% rate base growth (8-K).

Finally, the "Path to Clean" goal (10-K Item 1) is complicated by "Generation Capacity Shortfalls" (Risks). Since Exelon does not own generation assets, it cannot directly control the reliability or carbon intensity of the power it delivers. This leaves Exelon exposed to "price volatility" and service interruptions if third-party supply fails to meet the forecasted load growth from artificial intelligence and cloud services (Risks).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

Exelon is the largest player by revenue ($25B) in its peer group, yet it operates with the thinnest net margin (11.5%) and a negative free cash flow margin of -4.4% (XBRL). This reveals a business that is currently consuming more cash than it generates to fund its infrastructure build-out. While management targets annualized earnings growth near 7% through 2029 (8-K), the most recent quarterly results showed a decline in adjusted operating earnings from $0.64 to $0.59 per share (8-K).

This divergence is structural: Exelon is in a heavy investment phase where "increased contracting and depreciation expenses" (8-K) hit the bottom line immediately, while the revenue from those investments must wait for "lengthy, contentious regulatory rate proceedings" (Risks). Short interest at 4.9% of the float suggests a segment of the market remains wary of this capital-heavy transition (Supplemental Signals).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 16.1x forward earnings, the market is pricing in ~1.1% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This represents an 11% discount to the peer median of 18.1x, making Exelon the cheapest stock in its immediate peer group (Peer Benchmarking).

This modest discount is justified by Exelon's inferior margins—its 42.9% gross margin is the lowest among peers, significantly trailing AEP’s 68.0% (Peer Benchmarking). For the current price to be "right," Exelon only needs to achieve minimal growth. However, the primary risk that could compress this multiple further is a credit downgrade that would force Exelon to post significant cash collateral, undermining its liquidity (Risks). If growth were to align with a 2.5% GDP pace, the justified multiple would rise to 20.7x (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if the 7.9% rate base growth (8-K) translates into a positive FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin, signaling that the infrastructure cycle is beginning to generate cash rather than consume it.
Cautious if credit ratings are downgraded, triggering the "collateral requirements" that would drain available liquidity (Risks).
Cautious if the 2026 earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 is revised downward due to "contentious regulatory rate proceedings" that limit cost recovery (8-K, Risks).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A massive, multi-state regulated infrastructure footprint that creates a predictable monopoly on energy delivery for ten million customers. Bottom Line: Exelon is a high-expenditure utility play whose valuation discount reflects the heavy regulatory lifting required to turn its $41 billion investment into actual cash flow.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Regulatory Rate Recovery: Exelon’s earnings are heavily dependent on the ability of its utility subsidiaries to recover costs through rates. These rates are subject to regulatory proceedings that often involve parties seeking to limit or reduce rate increases, creating uncertainty regarding the timing and sufficiency of cost recovery.
Credit and Liquidity Risk: A downgrade in credit ratings below investment grade would trigger collateral requirements, forcing Exelon to provide significant amounts of cash or letters of credit, which would materially reduce available liquidity.
Generation Capacity Shortfalls: Exelon does not own generation assets and relies on third-party power. If generation capacity is insufficient to meet demand—particularly with the forecasted load growth from artificial intelligence and cloud services—Exelon faces service interruptions, price volatility, and potential inability to support economic development.
Cybersecurity and Physical Threats: As an operator of critical energy infrastructure, Exelon is a target for sophisticated threat actors. A successful breach could lead to loss of revenue, increased costs for infrastructure repair, and significant reputational damage.
Environmental and Climate Regulation: Exelon is subject to extensive environmental laws and potential GHG reduction mandates. Failure to comply or the inability to secure timely cost recovery for mandated capital expenditures could negatively impact Exelon's financial statements.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Illinois Outage Liability: Unlike many other utilities that enjoy broad liability protections, ComEd may be required to pay material damages to customers in the event of extended outages affecting large numbers of people under Illinois law.
Ring-Fencing Limitations: While Exelon utilizes "ring-fencing" to isolate its utility subsidiaries from financial difficulties at the parent level, the credit ratings of these subsidiaries remain linked to Exelon, meaning a parent-level downgrade could still negatively impact the utilities.
Residual Generation Liabilities: Despite transferring former generation assets to Constellation, Exelon retains residual liability under certain laws and has issued indemnities that could result in substantial costs if Constellation’s creditworthiness deteriorates or if the indemnity arrangements become unenforceable.
Weather-Dependent Revenue: While many of Exelon’s utilities use revenue decoupling, PECO and DPL Delaware do not, leaving their operating revenues directly exposed to fluctuations in energy usage caused by moderate or abnormal weather.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

NERC/FERC Compliance: Exelon is subject to mandatory reliability standards enforced by FERC and NERC. Non-compliance can result in remediation costs and substantial monetary penalties.
Prudency Reviews: Even after rates are established, state regulators conduct prudency reviews. These can lead to the disallowance of costs—including those for smart grid infrastructure, energy efficiency programs, and MGP remediation—or require Exelon to issue refunds.
Tax Position Challenges: Exelon must make judgments regarding tax reserves and positions. These estimates are subject to challenge by taxing authorities, and changes in federal or state tax laws could impact earnings.
Legal Proceedings: Exelon is involved in various legal claims and litigation. Adverse outcomes could result in significant expenditures, lost revenue, or operational disruptions.

4. Financial Impact Map

Regulatory Rate Recovery → Consolidated Statements of Operations → The timing and ultimate outcome of rate proceedings directly affect the ability to recover costs and earn an adequate return.
Credit and Liquidity Risk → Consolidated Balance Sheets / Cash Flows → Downgrades require the posting of cash or letters of credit, directly impacting liquidity and increasing borrowing costs.
Generation Capacity Shortfalls → Consolidated Statements of Operations → Insufficient supply leads to price volatility and potential loss of revenue from service interruptions.
Cybersecurity and Physical Threats → Consolidated Statements of Operations → Breaches could lead to loss of revenue, increased maintenance costs, and potential legal claims.
Environmental and Climate Regulation → Consolidated Balance Sheets → Compliance requires significant capital expenditures, which could lead to asset impairment charges or accelerated depreciation if assets become uneconomic.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—