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Energy

Expand Energy

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Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(17yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$11.6B	$7.7B	$9.4B	$11.6B	$12.3B	$17.5B	$21.0B	$12.8B	$7.9B	$9.5B	$10.2B	$8.6B	$5.3B	$11.7B	$8.7B	$4.2B	$12.1B	+186.3%
Operating Income	$1.5B	-$8.9B	$2.8B	$2.9B	-$1.7B	$2.1B	$3.5B	-$18.9B	-$4.4B	$1.1B	$882.0M	-$31.0M	-$8.7B	$3.8B	$3.1B	-$803.0M	$2.5B	+407.7%
Operating Margin	12.5%	-116.1%	29.9%	25.1%	-13.8%	11.8%	16.6%	-148.2%	-56.0%	12.0%	8.6%	-0.4%	-164.3%	32.2%	36.0%	-19.0%	20.4%	+39.3pp
Net Income	$604.0M	-$5.8B	$1.8B	$1.7B	-$769.0M	$724.0M	$1.9B	-$14.7B	-$4.4B	$949.0M	$873.0M	-$308.0M	-$9.7B	$4.9B	$2.4B	-$714.0M	$1.8B	+354.8%
Net Margin	5.2%	-75.7%	18.9%	15.0%	-6.2%	4.1%	9.1%	-115.1%	-55.9%	10.0%	8.5%	-3.6%	-183.8%	42.0%	27.7%	-16.9%	15.0%	+31.9pp
Free Cash Flow	-$4.3B	-$1.7B	-$1.8B	-$434.0M	-$11.3B	-$2.6B	-$2.0B	-$2.4B	-$1.6B	$724.0M	$2.0B	$1.6B	$22.0M	$2.3B	$551.0M	$8.0M	$1.8B	+22887.5%
FCF Margin	-36.9%	-22.6%	-19.3%	-3.7%	-91.5%	-14.7%	-9.7%	-18.5%	-21.0%	7.6%	19.3%	18.3%	0.4%	19.6%	6.3%	0.2%	15.2%	+15.0pp
EPS (Diluted)	$0.93	$-9.57	$2.51	$2.32	$-1.46	$0.73	$1.87	$-22.43	$-6.45	$0.90	$0.85	$-0.25	$-998.26	$33.36	$16.92	$-4.55	$7.57	+266.4%

Total Debt$5.0B

Cash & Equiv.$616.0M

Net Debt$4.4B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Expand Energy is currently a massive integration project disguised as a commodity producer. By absorbing Southwestern Energy, it has achieved unrivaled scale and vertical integration, yet it remains a high-leverage bet on natural gas prices with a balance sheet that mandates aggressive debt reduction.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Expand Energy’s primary strength—its status as the largest producer operating 99% of its own volumes—is directly threatened by its reliance on third-party infrastructure. Expand Energy notes that constraints on the NG3 pipeline can force it to shut in wells, meaning its massive production capacity is only as valuable as the available pipe space to move it (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, its "technical expertise" in managing reserves is under pressure from its $5.0 billion debt load. Because 28% of its proved reserves are undeveloped, Expand Energy must spend $4.2 billion over the next five years to maintain its reserve base; any diversion of cash flow to service high debt levels could lead to the mandatory removal of these assets from its books (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a company in the midst of a violent structural shift. The 186.3% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth (XBRL) is a byproduct of the Southwestern Merger rather than organic expansion, a fact reinforced by the more modest 15% year-over-year production increase in the most recent quarter (8-K). While Expand Energy leads its peer group in top-line growth, it trails significantly in efficiency. Its 12.1% net margin is the lowest among its peers, far behind Diamondback’s 26.4% (Peer Table). This suggests that while the merger provided scale, it has yet to deliver the margin profile of its more efficient competitors. Sentiment remains cautious but stable, with short interest sitting at 3.4% of the float.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 11.3x, Expand Energy trades at a 20% discount to the peer median of 14.1x. According to the CAPM analysis, this price implies the market expects just 0.5% long-term growth. This valuation appears pessimistic given that management has already exceeded synergy targets and improved Haynesville breakeven costs by 15% (8-K). However, the discount is likely a reflection of Expand Energy's 12.1% net margin—the lowest in the peer group—and its $4.4 billion in net debt. For the current price to be "fair," the market would have to believe that Expand Energy’s 18.4% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin will be entirely consumed by its $2.85 billion 2026 capital expenditure plan and debt service, leaving little for shareholders beyond the 3.0% dividend.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if Expand Energy successfully executes its plan to reduce debt by at least $1 billion in 2026, which would lower the 2.5x net leverage and reduce the risk to its capital expenditure budget (8-K).
Cautious if natural gas prices experience a prolonged downturn, as Expand Energy warns this could trigger impairments on the carrying value of its properties and restrict its ability to fund the $4.2 billion required for reserve development (10-K Item 1A).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Massive operational scale and vertical integration through internal control of drilling rigs and oilfield services. Bottom Line: Expand Energy is an attractively valued but high-risk play on natural gas that requires flawless merger integration to close its margin gap with peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Commodity Price Volatility: Expand Energy’s revenues, profitability, and leverage ratios depend primarily on natural gas, oil, and NGL prices. Prolonged low prices can trigger impairments of proved and unproved properties, reducing the carrying value of assets.
Capital Expenditure Requirements: To sustain production and replace reserves, Expand Energy requires substantial capital. Forecasted 2026 capital expenditures are $2.75–$2.95 billion, following 2025 spending of $2.85 billion. Inability to fund these via operating cash flow or revolving credit facilities could curtail development.
Reserve Replacement and Estimation: Future cash flows depend on the ability to replace produced reserves. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 28% of proved reserves were undeveloped, requiring $4.2 billion in development costs over the next five years. Failure to convert these PUDs (proved undeveloped reserves) within five years necessitates their removal from reported reserves.
Infrastructure and Takeaway Constraints: Expand Energy relies on third-party pipelines, such as the NG3 pipeline, to transport production. Lack of capacity, repairs, or damage to these facilities can force Expand Energy to shut in wells, directly impacting production volumes and cash flow.
Indebtedness: As of December 31, 2025, Expand Energy held approximately $5.0 billion in debt. This leverage limits the ability to fund working capital and investments, increases vulnerability to economic downturns, and places Expand Energy at a competitive disadvantage compared to less-indebted peers.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Joint Venture Limitations: Expand Energy holds a 35% interest in the NG3 pipeline joint venture. Expand Energy lacks full control over joint venture decisions, which may restrict operational flexibility and force Expand Energy to fund capital expenditures or operating costs at times or in amounts it does not control.
Tax Attribute Limitations: The 2024 Southwestern Merger triggered an annual limitation on the utilization of tax attributes under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code. Future stock transactions or issuances could trigger additional, more restrictive limitations on the ability to offset taxable income.
Headquarters Concentration: Expand Energy’s headquarters in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, serves as the primary hub for information systems and administrative processes for all U.S. operations. A catastrophic event at this location could disrupt Expand Energy’s ability to conduct normal operations.
LNG Market Exposure: Expand Energy is exposed to the U.S. LNG export market, including potential long-term supply agreements. Deterioration in this industry or unfavorable price differentials between domestic indices (Henry Hub) and international indices (JKM, Dutch TTF) could materially impact financial results.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Pipeline Safety: The PHMSA has expanded federal safety requirements to onshore gas gathering pipelines. While Expand Energy cannot predict the exact cost of compliance with new leak detection and repair rules, it notes that violations can result in significant penalties.
Hydraulic Fracturing: State and federal regulations regarding hydraulic fracturing, including potential bans or moratoriums, could increase operating costs and cause project delays. Additionally, injection wells used for waste disposal are subject to seismicity response programs that may lead to permit suspensions.
Climate Change and GHG Emissions: EPA regulations regarding methane emissions, including leak detection and "super emitter" monitoring programs, impose compliance costs. Furthermore, Expand Energy is subject to a 15% corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) on adjusted financial statement income under the Inflation Reduction Act.
Endangered Species Act (ESA): Potential designations of critical or suitable habitats for endangered species could restrict land use and delay or prohibit development activities, forcing Expand Energy to incur significant expenses to modify operations.

4. Financial Impact Map

Commodity Price Volatility → Carrying Value of Properties → Potential non-cash impairment charges reducing earnings and increasing leverage ratios. Capital Expenditure Requirements → Cash Flows from Operating Activities → $2.75–$2.95 billion in projected 2026 spending requires sufficient operating cash flow or revolving credit availability. Indebtedness → Cash Flows from Operating Activities → Substantial portion of cash flow must be dedicated to debt service, limiting funds for general corporate purposes. Customer Credit Risk → Accounts Receivable → $1,363 million in receivables from commodity sales as of December 31, 2025, are subject to counterparty insolvency or non-payment. Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) → Income Tax Liabilities → 15% tax on adjusted financial statement income under the Inflation Reduction Act.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—