EXPD
IndustrialsExpeditors International
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $5.6B | $4.1B | $6.0B | $6.2B | $6.0B | $6.1B | $6.6B | $6.6B | $6.1B | $6.9B | $8.1B | $8.2B | $10.1B | $16.5B | $17.1B | $9.3B | $10.6B | $11.1B | +4.4% |
| Gross Profit | — | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.8B | — | — | — | — | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.7B | +7.4% |
| Gross Margin | — | 28.5% | 33.8% | 28.4% | 30.8% | 30.5% | — | — | — | — | 33.5% | 32.2% | 32.2% | 28.9% | 27.0% | 26.3% | 34.9% | 32.2% | 33.1% | +0.9pp |
| Operating Income | $423.4M | $473.1M | $385.0M | $547.2M | $618.3M | $530.8M | $552.1M | $594.6M | $721.5M | $670.2M | $700.3M | $796.6M | $766.7M | $940.4M | $1.9B | $1.8B | $939.9M | $1.0B | $1.1B | +1.1% |
| Operating Margin | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | -0.3pp |
| Net Income | $269.2M | $301.0M | $240.2M | $344.2M | $385.7M | $333.4M | $348.5M | $376.9M | $457.2M | $430.8M | $489.3M | $618.2M | $590.4M | $696.1M | $1.4B | $1.4B | $752.9M | $810.1M | $810.3M | +0.0% |
| Net Margin | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | -0.3pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $229.8M | $349.2M | $296.1M | $353.1M | $379.0M | $322.5M | $354.1M | $357.5M | $520.3M | $469.8M | $393.6M | $525.3M | $724.9M | $607.5M | $832.2M | $2.0B | $1.0B | $682.9M | $953.4M | +39.6% |
| FCF Margin | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | +2.2pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.21 | $1.37 | $1.11 | $1.59 | $1.79 | $1.57 | $1.68 | $1.92 | $2.40 | $2.36 | $2.69 | $3.48 | $3.39 | $4.07 | $8.27 | $8.26 | $5.01 | $5.72 | $5.95 | +4.0% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Expeditors International is a "knowledge-based" logistics provider that wins on agility rather than infrastructure. By owning no ships or planes, Expeditors International avoids the massive fixed costs of its peers but remains entirely at the mercy of the carriers it hires and the geopolitical stability of the China-US trade lane. Its current challenge is managing a transition where traditional freight volumes are rising, but the profit earned on each shipment is falling.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Expeditors International’s Organic Growth Strategy is threatened by Trade Volatility because its expansion is heavily concentrated; 19% of 2025 revenue and 15% of operating income originated from exports in China and Hong Kong (Risks). Any escalation in tariffs directly undermines the "global consistency" management cites as a core strength.
Furthermore, the Unified Technology Platform—which Expeditors identifies as a primary competitive advantage—is a single point of failure. The Cybersecurity risk is not theoretical; a 2022 attack previously caused lost revenue and significant remediation costs (Risks). Finally, the Incentive-Based Compensation model, designed to drive performance, is threatened by Personnel Retention risks. Because Expeditors requires in-office work, it faces higher turnover and recruitment costs compared to competitors with flexible remote-work policies (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
While Expeditors leads its peer group in TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth (+4.4%), its operating margin of 9.8% is significantly lower than rail peers like Norfolk Southern (40.9%) or Union Pacific (40.2%) (XBRL). This highlights the structural trade-off of the non-asset model: Expeditors generates more growth with less capital but keeps a much smaller slice of every dollar earned.
Recent results reveal a decoupling of volume and profit. In the fourth quarter of 2025, airfreight tonnage rose 6%, yet gross margins declined because "buy rates" from carriers rose faster than the prices Expeditors could charge its customers (8-K). This confirms Expeditors International’s structural vulnerability to carrier pricing. The 3% revenue decline in the most recent quarter diverges from the positive TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth, primarily due to a 41% collapse in ocean revenue-per-container (8-K). This suggests the post-pandemic pricing boom has ended, leaving Expeditors International reliant on its "Customs brokerage and other services" segment, which is currently buoyed by investments in AI hyperscaler infrastructure.
Supplemental signals show short interest at 4.8% of the float, suggesting a segment of the market is skeptical of Expeditors International's ability to maintain its valuation amid these pricing pressures.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 22.0x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in ~6.1% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This represents a 12% premium to the peer median of 19.7x. This premium is difficult to justify based on current performance, as net earnings fell 15% in the most recent quarter (8-K).
While Expeditors International is the peer leader in buyback yield (4.0%), this financial engineering is necessary to support EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth while operating income is under pressure. If long-term growth slows to 5.0%, the justified multiple falls to 17.9x, representing roughly 19% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis). The current price is only "right" if the growth in AI-related warehousing and customs services can permanently replace the lost margins in ocean and air freight.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if ocean revenue-per-container continues its double-digit decline (down 41% in Q4 2025), indicating that the pricing floor has not yet been reached.
- Constructive if the "Customs brokerage and other services" segment grows to represent a larger portion of total operating income, reducing reliance on volatile carrier "buy rates."
- Cautious if the 4.8% short interest increases, signaling that professional traders expect further margin compression or a hit from US-China trade policy.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A non-asset-based model supported by a unified proprietary technology platform and a unique incentive-based compensation system that drives local-level profitability.
Bottom Line: Expeditors is a high-quality service provider, but its premium valuation is currently vulnerable to a "mean-reversion" in global shipping rates and significant geopolitical exposure in China.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Trade Volatility and Tariffs: Expeditors International faces significant exposure to trade actions between China and the United States. In 2025 and 2024, 19% and 22% of revenues, and 15% and 17% of operating income, respectively, were generated from exports originating in China and Hong Kong.
- Carrier Capacity and Pricing: As a non-asset-based provider, Expeditors International depends on third-party air, ocean, and ground freight carriers. If capacity is insufficient or if carriers raise rates with little notice, Expeditors International may be unable to pass these costs to customers, directly compressing margins.
- Personnel Retention: Expeditors International’s performance is tied to its ability to recruit and retain key employees. Because Expeditors International requires in-office work, it faces potential turnover and increased compensation expenses compared to competitors offering remote-work policies.
- Cybersecurity and System Continuity: Expeditors International relies on sophisticated technology for core operations. A significant disruption, such as the February 2022 cyber-attack, can lead to lost revenue, shipment-processing delays, and significant remediation costs.
- Competitive Pricing Pressures: The logistics industry is intensely competitive. Customers frequently solicit bids and demand contractual terms—such as fixed-price arrangements, extended payment terms, and performance penalties—that can reduce revenues and margins.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Headquarters Location: The corporate headquarters and critical IT operations are located in the Puget Sound area, which is near major earthquake faults, creating a risk of catastrophic disruption to global systems.
- Organic Growth Strategy: Expeditors International historically relies on organic growth and avoids acquisitions. This limits Expeditors International’s ability to gain market share through inorganic means and makes future results dependent on the success of internal service development.
- Customer Concentration in Volatile Sectors: A significant portion of revenue is derived from retail and technology customers whose shipping patterns are tied to consumer demand and AI infrastructure scaling, making revenue timing unpredictable.
- Hazardous Materials Liability: Expeditors International handles and transports customer inventory, including hazardous materials and high-value goods. Failure to properly safeguard this inventory exposes Expeditors International to material claims that may exceed insurance coverage limits.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Tax Audits and Transfer Pricing: The Indian tax authority (ITA) has asserted that additional tax applies to transfer pricing and transactions between Expeditors International and its Indian subsidiary, as well as service taxes on imports and exports. Adverse resolution could result in significant additional tax expense, interest, and penalties.
- Global Anti-Corruption Compliance: Expeditors International operates in regions where common business practices may violate the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, anti-boycott laws, and various international trade sanctions.
- Environmental Regulation: Increasing global regulations, such as the FuelEU Maritime initiative or the EU Emissions Trading System, may impose more stringent restrictions on transportation modes, leading to increased costs or operational disruptions.
4. Financial Impact Map
China-U.S. Trade/Tariffs → Revenue and Operating Income → 19% of 2025 revenue and 15% of 2025 operating income derived from China/Hong Kong exports. Carrier Rate Volatility → Yields and Margins → Inability to pass through carrier rate increases results in margin compression. Personnel/Labor Costs → Operating Expenses → Higher compensation-related expenses to recruit and retain employees in a competitive market. Cyber-attacks/System Failure → Revenue and Operating Expenses → Lost revenue, shipment delays, and significant remediation/security costs. Indian Tax Authority Audits → Tax Expense → Potential for significant additional tax expense, interest, and penalties if transfer pricing positions are not upheld.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Expeditors International Q1 EPS beats estimates by 28.25%, revenue beats by 8.02%
- ▸Q1 earnings per share beat consensus estimates by 28.25%
- ▸Q1 revenue beat consensus estimates by 8.02%
- ▸Financial results cover the quarter ended March 2026
EXPD Q1 EPS $1.71 beats expectations, revenue rises 4% to $2.8B
- ▸Q1 EPS $1.71, up 16% year-over-year
- ▸Net earnings $230 million, up 13% year-over-year
- ▸Revenue $2.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year
- ▸Operating income $295 million, up 11% year-over-year
- ▸$288 million returned to shareholders via share repurchases
Expeditors Increases Semi-Annual Dividend 5% to $0.81 Per Share
- ▸Semi-annual cash dividend increased 5% to $0.81 per share
- ▸Dividend payable June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record June 1, 2026
- ▸New $3 billion share repurchase program authorized in February 2026
- ▸Nearly $2 billion returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks since 2024
EXPD Q1 revenue $2.78B beats estimates by 6.5%, EPS $1.71 beats by 28.7%
- ▸Q1 revenue $2.78B, +4.4% YoY, beating estimates by 6.5%
- ▸Non-GAAP EPS $1.71, beating consensus estimates of $1.33 by 28.7%
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $308.7M, 25.2% above analyst estimates
- ▸Operating margin 10.6%, consistent with prior year period
- ▸Declared semi-annual cash dividend of $0.81 per share
SHIP hikes quarterly dividend 53.8% to $0.20 per share
- ▸Quarterly dividend increased 53.8% to $0.20 per share
- ▸Dividend yield currently stands at 4.2%
- ▸Strong cash flow generation supports dividend hike
- ▸Company maintains low valuation relative to earnings estimates
Expeditors Q4 EPS $1.49 falls 11%, revenue slips 3% to $2.9B
- ▸Q4 EPS $1.49, down 11% YoY
- ▸Q4 net earnings $201M, down 15% YoY
- ▸Q4 revenue $2.9B, down 3% YoY
- ▸Ocean freight container volume down 6%, revenue per container down 41%
- ▸Operating income $251M, down 17% YoY
Expeditors Q4 Revenue $2.86B, Down 3.3% YoY; FedEx Outperforms Peers With 6.8% Growth
- ▸Expeditors Q4 revenue $2.86B, down 3.3% YoY, in line with expectations
- ▸Expeditors stock down 4.7% since earnings report
- ▸FedEx Q4 revenue $23.47B, up 6.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3%
- ▸FedEx stock up 23.5% since reporting Q4 results
- ▸C.H. Robinson Q4 revenue $3.91B, down 6.5% YoY, missing estimates by 1.9%
Expeditors Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Authorizes New $3B Share Repurchase Program
- ▸Authorized new $3B share repurchase program
- ▸Q4 earnings and revenue exceeded analyst estimates
- ▸Current P/E ratio of 23.5x exceeds industry average of 16x
- ▸Shares down 11.95% over the past month
- ▸1-year total shareholder return of 25.30%
Expeditors Q4 EPS $1.49 beats estimates, authorizes $3B share repurchase program
- ▸Q4 EPS $1.49, beat estimates by $0.03
- ▸Q4 revenue $2.86B, beat forecasts by $24M
- ▸Q4 net earnings $201M, down 15% YoY
- ▸Authorized new $3B share repurchase program
- ▸JPMorgan raised price target to $135, maintained Underweight rating