EXPE
CyclicalExpedia Group
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $4.0B | $4.8B | $5.8B | $6.7B | $8.8B | $10.1B | $11.2B | $12.1B | $5.2B | $8.6B | $11.7B | $12.8B | $13.7B | $14.7B | +7.6% |
| Gross Profit | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.7B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.6B | $5.4B | $7.2B | $8.3B | $9.3B | $9.9B | $3.5B | $7.1B | $10.0B | $11.3B | $12.2B | $13.3B | +8.4% |
| Gross Margin | 78.3% | 79.5% | 79.3% | 77.9% | 77.7% | 78.2% | 79.5% | 80.4% | 81.8% | 82.5% | 82.5% | 82.1% | 67.7% | 82.3% | 85.8% | 87.7% | 89.5% | 90.1% | +0.7pp |
| Operating Income | -$2.4B | $571.4M | $731.9M | $479.6M | $431.7M | $366.1M | $517.8M | $413.6M | $461.7M | $625.1M | $714.0M | $903.0M | -$2.7B | $186.0M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.9B | +41.8% |
| Operating Margin | -82.7% | 19.3% | 21.9% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -52.3% | 2.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.7% | +3.1pp |
| Net Income | -$2.5B | $299.5M | $421.5M | $472.3M | $280.2M | $232.8M | $398.1M | $764.5M | $281.8M | $378.0M | $406.0M | $565.0M | -$2.6B | $12.0M | $352.0M | $797.0M | $1.2B | $1.3B | +4.9% |
| Net Margin | -85.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | -50.2% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | -0.2pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $360.9M | $584.0M | $622.3M | — | — | — | $1.0B | $581.0M | $815.0M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.6B | -$4.6B | $3.1B | $2.8B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $3.1B | +33.5% |
| FCF Margin | 12.3% | 19.8% | 18.6% | — | — | — | 18.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% | -89.1% | 35.8% | 23.8% | 14.4% | 17.0% | 21.1% | +4.1pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-8.80 | $1.03 | $1.46 | $3.41 | $2.00 | $1.67 | $2.99 | $5.70 | $1.82 | $2.42 | $2.65 | $3.77 | $-19.00 | $-1.80 | $2.17 | $5.31 | $8.95 | $9.81 | +9.6% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Expedia is currently two businesses moving at different speeds: a mature, slow-growing consumer marketplace (B2C) and a high-octane travel technology wholesaler (B2B). While its household brands like Vrbo and Hotels.com struggle with high customer acquisition costs, the B2B segment is growing revenue at 24%, effectively turning Expedia into the back-end infrastructure for the rest of the travel industry (8-K).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Expedia’s "Platform Operating Model" is designed to increase the speed of feature releases, but this technical agility is constantly undermined by search engine dynamics. No matter how fast the platform evolves, it remains beholden to Google for traffic (10-K Item 1A). This dependency turns a competitive strength—global scale—into a vulnerability; as marketing costs rise to maintain brand awareness, the efficiency gains from a unified tech stack are often consumed by customer acquisition expenses. Furthermore, the push for "predictive, personalized experiences" via machine learning is directly challenged by the emergence of "agentic AI," which threatens to disintermediate the platform by allowing travelers to book directly with suppliers (10-K Item 1).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a massive gap between gross profitability and bottom-line efficiency. While Expedia boasts a 90.2% gross margin—second only to Marriott in its peer group—it has the lowest operating margin (14.5%) and FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (8.6%) among its competitors (XBRL). This suggests that while the "Merchant Model" is lucrative at the transaction level, the overhead of maintaining a multi-brand portfolio and paying for traffic is punishingly expensive. The 11% revenue growth in the most recent quarter outpaces the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter average of 7.6%, driven by international strength, yet net income fell 31% as Expedia Group faced higher costs (8-K). Short interest at 6.9% of the float suggests a segment of the market remains skeptical that these high-volume bookings will eventually translate into higher margins.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 10.2x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 2.4% (CAPM analysis). This "cheapest in class" valuation is a direct reflection of Expedia’s 8.6% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin, which trails Booking Holdings’ 34.9% by a staggering distance (XBRL). However, the current price may be overly pessimistic. Given that B2B revenue is growing at 24% and Expedia Group is retiring 7.3% of its shares annually through buybacks—the highest yield in its peer group—Expedia does not need a major turnaround to satisfy investors. For the current price to be right, Expedia only needs to maintain low-single-digit net income growth, a bar it is currently clearing through its B2B engine and aggressive share count reduction.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if B2B revenue growth slows below 15%, as this segment is the primary engine offsetting the slower 4% growth in the consumer (B2C) business.
- Constructive if operating margins expand toward the 20% range, signaling that the "One Key" loyalty integration is successfully driving direct bookings and reducing the "Google tax."
- Cautious if the 20% dividend increase signals that management sees fewer opportunities to reinvest capital into high-growth technology projects like the Rapid API.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A dominant B2B distribution network (Rapid API) and a unified technology stack that allows for rapid cross-brand loyalty integration. Bottom Line: Expedia is a high-yield cannibal, using massive buybacks to manufacture earnings growth while its B2B segment matures into a vital industry utility.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Competitive Environment: Expedia Group faces intense global competition from OTAs, alternative accommodation providers, and large online companies. The emergence of generative and agentic AI threatens to disintermediate the platform, potentially leading to a loss of market share and increased marketing expenses.
- Travel Industry Disruptions: The business is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical instability, public health crises, and natural disasters. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or hurricanes (e.g., Helene and Milton in 2024) can cause sudden decreases in demand and force Expedia Group to issue refunds, constraining liquidity.
- Supplier Relationships: A substantial portion of revenue depends on compensation negotiated with travel suppliers, particularly lodging and airlines. Suppliers may reduce compensation, restrict access to inventory, or implement costly direct connections, which would reduce revenue and margins.
- Search Engine Dynamics: Expedia Group relies on search engines like Google for a significant portion of traffic. Changes to search algorithms or the introduction of proprietary travel search functionality by these providers can reduce organic traffic, forcing Expedia Group to replace it with more expensive paid traffic.
- Brand Maintenance: The cost of maintaining and enhancing brand awareness is increasing. Inefficiencies in branding efforts or a failure to generate demand cost-effectively could result in higher customer acquisition costs and lower direct traffic.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Concentrated Voting Power: As of December 31, 2025, Barry Diller may be deemed to beneficially own 100% of the Class B common stock, representing approximately 32% of the total voting power, which allows him to influence or control significant corporate actions and potentially discourage change-of-control transactions.
- Leadership Transitions: Expedia Group has experienced recent leadership transitions and relies on the contributions of specific senior executives; the loss of these individuals could harm the business.
- Platform Migration: The migration of key platform functionality to Amazon Web Services (AWS) creates a dependency on AWS infrastructure; any service outages or incidents could damage Expedia Group's reputation and ability to serve customers.
- Alternative Accommodation Regulation: The alternative accommodations business is subject to evolving local and international regulations, such as the EU Short-Term Rental Law effective May 2026, which may require registration numbers and limit the number of available listings.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Privacy and Data Protection: Expedia Group is subject to numerous global privacy laws, including the GDPR and various U.S. state laws. Failure to comply or a security breach involving customer data could result in significant penalties, legal liability, and reputational damage.
- Payment Regulations: The end-to-end payment process is subject to complex regulations, including Strong Customer Authentication (SCA) requirements. Non-compliance could lead to civil or criminal penalties or the loss of the ability to process payments.
- Taxation: Taxing authorities are increasingly aggressive in interpreting laws related to the digital economy. Expedia Group faces risks from potential digital services taxes, audits, and disputes over the collection and remittance of transactional taxes.
- Legal Proceedings: Expedia Group is involved in various legal matters, including antitrust, consumer protection, and intellectual property disputes. Unfavorable outcomes could result in substantial payments and necessitate changes to business operations.
4. Financial Impact Map
Competitive Environment → Marketing Expenses → Increased spending required to compete for visibility and traffic. Travel Industry Disruptions → Revenue → Decreased demand and potential refund obligations for cancelled travel products. Supplier Relationships → Revenue and Margins → Reduced compensation or increased operating expenses from supplier-imposed fees. Search Engine Dynamics → Marketing Expenses → Increased costs to replace lost organic traffic with paid advertising. Indebtedness → Cash Flow from Operations → Debt service obligations reduce cash available for working capital, capital expenditures, and acquisitions.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Wynn Resorts Q1 Revenue Seen Rising 5.9% to $1.8B, EPS Forecast $1.18
- ▸Q1 revenue consensus $1.80B, +5.9% YoY
- ▸Q1 EPS estimate $1.18, +10.3% YoY
- ▸Las Vegas revenue projected $662.4M, +5.9% YoY
- ▸Macau revenue projected $898.9M, +3.8% YoY
- ▸Encore Boston Harbor revenue expected to decline 1% YoY to $207.2M
Expedia B2B bookings rise 24% as platform model scales growth
- ▸B2B bookings increased 24% year-over-year
- ▸Growth driven by API integration and partner expansion
- ▸B2B segment identified as primary scalable growth engine
Expedia Group declares $0.48 quarterly dividend; analysts adjust price targets amid AI outlook
- ▸Quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share declared, payable March 26, 2026
- ▸Projected traveler spending of $8.1B in North America host cities, June–August 2026
- ▸B. Riley raised price target to $360 from $300
- ▸BTIG raised price target to $330 from $275
- ▸Wells Fargo raised price target to $329 from $272
Expedia Projects 2026 Revenue Growth of 6-9% Amid Strong Travel Demand
- ▸Q4 2025 lodging gross bookings +13% YoY
- ▸FY2026 revenue growth guidance 6-9%
- ▸FY2026 gross bookings growth guidance 6-8%
- ▸Growth driven by international expansion and B2B channel momentum
- ▸Facing intensifying competition from Booking Holdings and Airbnb
Expedia Group shares down 16.5% YTD, lagging Nasdaq amid cautious 2026 margin outlook
- ▸Q4 adjusted EPS $3.78, revenue $3.54 billion
- ▸Net income -31% to $205 million, EPS -27% to $1.60
- ▸FY26 adjusted core profit margin growth projected at 1%–1.25%
- ▸Stock down 6.4% following Feb 12 earnings release
- ▸Shares trading below 50-day moving average since late January
Expedia Q4 Revenue $3.55B +11.4% YoY, Beats Analyst Estimates by 3.8%
- ▸Expedia Q4 revenue $3.55B, +11.4% YoY, beat estimates by 3.8%
- ▸LendingTree Q4 revenue $319.7M, +22.2% YoY, beat estimates by 11.5%
- ▸Robinhood Q4 revenue $1.28B, +26.5% YoY, missed estimates by 3.9%
- ▸Consumer internet sector Q4 revenue beat consensus estimates by 1.7%
- ▸Consumer internet sector Q4 revenue guidance 3.7% below consensus