F
CyclicalFord Motor Company
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $170.6B | $145.1B | $118.3B | $129.0B | $136.3B | $134.3B | $146.9B | $144.1B | $149.6B | $151.8B | $156.8B | $160.3B | $155.9B | $127.1B | $136.3B | $158.1B | $176.2B | $185.0B | $187.3B | +1.2% |
| Gross Profit | $28.0B | $18.0B | $18.3B | $24.5B | $22.9B | $21.7B | $21.7B | $20.6B | $25.5B | $25.2B | $25.4B | $24.1B | $21.2B | $14.4B | $21.7B | $23.7B | $25.6B | $26.6B | $12.8B | -51.8% |
| Gross Margin | 16.4% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 19.0% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 6.8% | -7.5pp |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $4.9B | $3.2B | $574.0M | -$4.4B | $4.5B | $6.3B | $5.5B | $5.2B | -$9.2B | -275.7% |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | -4.9% | -7.7pp |
| Net Income | -$2.8B | -$14.8B | $2.7B | $6.6B | $20.2B | $5.7B | $7.2B | $3.2B | $7.4B | $4.6B | $7.6B | $3.7B | $84.0M | -$1.3B | $17.9B | -$2.0B | $4.3B | $5.9B | -$8.2B | -238.8% |
| Net Margin | -1.6% | -10.2% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.1% | -1.0% | 13.2% | -1.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | -4.4% | -7.5pp |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $11.0B | $7.2B | $10.0B | $18.5B | $9.6B | -$13.0M | $6.7B | $6.7B | $12.5B | +85.0% |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 7.0% | -0.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.7% | +3.0pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.41 | $-6.50 | $0.86 | $1.66 | $4.94 | $1.42 | $1.76 | $0.80 | $1.84 | $1.15 | $1.90 | $0.92 | $0.01 | $-0.32 | $4.45 | $-0.49 | $1.08 | $1.46 | $-2.06 | -241.1% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Ford is currently a company divided against itself, attempting to fund a loss-making electric vehicle future (Model e) using the waning margins of its traditional internal combustion business (Ford Blue). While the "Ford+" plan aims to create "always-on" digital relationships with customers, the reality is a business struggling with a massive $11.1 billion quarterly net loss and an industrial system that management admits requires "relentless focus" to improve (8-K).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Ford’s stated competitive advantage in "brand identity" and "customer loyalty" (Competitive Position) is directly threatened by chronic product quality failures. Specifically, the potential exposure to 6 million defective airbag inflators from Takata, ARC, and Delphi creates a massive financial liability that undermines the very reliability Ford cites as a key purchasing factor (Risks). Furthermore, the strategic priority of electrification is being undermined by "lower-than-anticipated industrywide adoption," which has already forced Ford to abandon its investment in BlueOval SK, LLC and take charges for inventory adjustments (Risks). This suggests that the capital being diverted from the profitable Ford Pro segment is not yet yielding the "breakthrough" returns management promised.
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a stark decoupling between Ford’s revenue and its actual profitability. While Ford maintains a massive $187.6 billion revenue base—roughly equal to GM—its operating margin of 1.7% is the lowest in its peer group, trailing far behind GM’s 5.4% and Tesla’s 6.0% (XBRL). This inefficiency is driven by the Model e segment, which lost $1.2 billion in a single quarter on just $1.3 billion in revenue (8-K).
While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth shows a slight 1.2% increase, the most recent quarter saw revenue slide by 5%, suggesting that the "freedom of choice" model is struggling as volumes decline across all three segments (8-K). Sentiment remains cautious, with short interest sitting at 4.8% of the float. Ford Motor Company’s massive $137.3 billion net debt position further limits its maneuverability, especially as it faces a "dynamic and volatile" environment that CFO Sherry House notes will require "disciplined capital efficiency" to navigate (8-K).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 6.7x, Ford trades at a significant discount to the peer median of 26.6x. The market is currently pricing in a long-term growth rate of only 0.5% (CAPM analysis). This valuation is attractively valued only if Ford can successfully execute its 2026 guidance of $8.0 billion to $10.0 billion in adjusted EBIT. If growth were to align with broader GDP paces of 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of 9.0x, representing roughly 34% upside (CAPM analysis). However, the 2.0% net margin—the lowest among peers—suggests that investors are rightly discounting the stock due to the high probability of further asset impairments and the crushing weight of its debt-to-FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders leverage, which stands at 9.3x.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the Model e segment demonstrates a clear path toward EBIT parity, or if Ford Pro revenue growth accelerates to offset the 11% decline in wholesale units seen in the most recent quarter.
- Cautious if warranty accruals and recall costs for the Takata or ARC inflators exceed current projections, or if adjusted free cash flow for 2026 falls below the $5.0 billion floor provided in management's guidance.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Ford Pro’s dominant position in commercial fleets, supported by integrated telematics and a specialized service network.
Bottom Line: Ford is a high-risk turnaround story where the reliable profits of its commercial wing are being consumed by the heavy costs of a stalled electric transition and legacy quality issues.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Product Quality and Recalls: Ford Motor Company is subject to mandatory safety recalls and warranty obligations. Ford Motor Company currently faces potential exposure related to 3.5 million Takata airbag inflators and 2.5 million ARC Automotive and Delphi Automotive inflators in the United States.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Ford Motor Company depends on a global network of suppliers for key components and raw materials. Disruptions—such as the 2025 fires at a major aluminum supplier—can halt production, increase costs, and limit the ability to recoup lost volume.
- Electrification Strategy Execution: Ford Motor Company is investing heavily in EVs and battery production. Lower-than-anticipated industrywide adoption rates have forced Ford Motor Company to adjust investments, leading to potential charges for inventory adjustments, impairments, and payments to suppliers under long-term offtake agreements.
- Capital Allocation and Restructuring: The Ford+ plan requires disciplined capital allocation. Failure to modernize systems or successfully execute restructuring actions—such as the December 2025 decision to dispose of the investment in BlueOval SK, LLC—can result in significant charges and operational disruption.
- Macroeconomic and Trade Volatility: Unpredictable trade policies, including tariffs and export restrictions on rare earth minerals from China, limit long-term planning and increase costs for premium freight and expedited shipping.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Digital Services and Connectivity: Ford Motor Company’s growth strategy relies on subscription revenue from integrated software services. If customers do not activate vehicle modems or if Ford Motor Company fails to deliver secure, reliable digital services, it may be unable to recoup the significant resources invested in this business.
- BlueCruise Scrutiny: The hands-free driving system is subject to government investigations and inquiries regarding system misuse and feature capabilities, which could undermine consumer trust and negatively impact subscription rates.
- Labor Constraints: The majority of hourly employees in the United States and Canada are covered by collective bargaining agreements with the UAW and Unifor. These agreements have resulted in significant cost increases that Ford Motor Company may be unable to offset.
- Pension and OPEB Liabilities: Ford Motor Company maintains defined benefit plans in the United States and Europe. If actual investment returns or discount rates are less favorable than assumptions, Ford Motor Company may be required to make additional cash contributions, potentially forcing a reduction in capital expenditures or dividend payments.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- NHTSA Consent Order: Under a 2024 consent order, Ford Motor Company is required to retain an independent third party to monitor its adherence to the Safety Act, creating ongoing oversight and compliance costs.
- Emissions Compliance: Ford Motor Company faces risks from shifting environmental regulations, including ZEV mandates. If Ford Motor Company cannot meet emissions standards, it may be forced to purchase compliance credits, which can have a significant cash impact, or face fines and penalties.
- Data Privacy and AI: Ford Motor Company is subject to evolving global regulations regarding data protection and artificial intelligence. Non-compliance or data security incidents could lead to significant financial penalties and reputational harm.
- Consumer Financial Regulation: Ford Credit is subject to supervision by the CFPB and other regulators. Enforcement actions or allegations of non-compliance with consumer protection laws can lead to requirements to remunerate customers or revise business practices.
4. Financial Impact Map
Product Quality and Recalls → Results of Operations / Cash Flow → Warranty accruals and field service action costs are reflected in the period the accrual is made, while cash flow impacts may occur in later periods.
Supply Chain Disruptions → Cost of Production / Revenue → Disruptions lead to production shortfalls and increased costs for premium freight and expedited shipping.
Electrification Strategy Execution → Impairment Charges / Operating Expenses → Lower-than-anticipated EVEVEnterprise Value — the total cost to buy the whole business: market cap plus net debt adoption leads to charges for inventory adjustments, asset write-downs, and payments to suppliers under offtake agreements.
Capital Allocation and Restructuring → Non-Cash Charges / Operating Expenses → Restructuring actions, such as the disposition of BlueOval SK, LLC, result in significant charges and potential impairments.
Macroeconomic and Trade Volatility → Cash Flow / Results of Operations → Delays in receiving tariff refunds impact cash flow, while increased material costs impact overall financial results.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
HOG Q1 EPS $0.22 misses estimates by 36% on tariff-driven margin compression
- ▸Q1 EPS $0.22 vs $0.34 estimate, down 79% YoY
- ▸HDMC revenue $1.055B, beat estimates by 10.7%
- ▸Operating margin collapsed to 2% from 12.1% YoY
- ▸Global retail motorcycle sales +8% to 33,507 units
- ▸Global dealer inventory reduced 22% YoY
Ford CEO Farley Targets $40,000 Price Point for Future Electric Vehicle Lineup
- ▸Ford targeting new vehicle models priced at $40,000 or less
- ▸Midsize electric pickup planned for 2027 launch at roughly $30,000
- ▸Model e unit reported Q1 EBIT loss of $777 million
- ▸Average new-car prices near $50,000, up 30% since 2019
- ▸CEO identifies Chinese EV manufacturers as primary industry benchmark
Home Depot appoints Dr. Franziska Bell as EVP and Chief Technology Officer
- ▸Dr. Franziska Bell named EVP and Chief Technology Officer
- ▸Role focuses on product management, data, and enterprise-wide AI integration
- ▸Previous AI leadership experience at Ford, BP, Uber, and Toyota
- ▸Strategic mandate to enhance Pro digital ecosystem and customer experience
- ▸Appointment supports long-term goal of 4.2% annual revenue growth through 2029
First Brands Group agrees to sell auto parts brand portfolio for $25 million
- ▸Sold 12-brand aftermarket portfolio for $25 million to PGI Northstar
- ▸Follows separate $50 million sale of fuel-control systems division
- ▸Company previously closed 17 facilities and cut 4,000 jobs
- ▸Operations currently supported by prepaid orders from Ford and Honda
- ▸Proceeds earmarked for distribution to creditors following fraud-related collapse
Wolfe Research upgrades GM to Outperform, sets $96 price target citing 2027 tailwinds
- ▸Wolfe Research upgraded GM to Outperform from Peer Perform
- ▸New GM price target set at $96 per share
- ▸Projected GM EPS of $12.37 in 2026 and $16.03 in 2027
- ▸Refreshed full-size pickup expected to generate $1.7 billion in value
- ▸BorgWarner upgraded to Outperform; Ford flagged for potential $1.5 billion EBIT headwind
Ford Launches 'Ford Pro AI' to Expand Commercial Software Revenue and Fleet Productivity
- ▸Ford Pro segment generated $66B revenue and $6.8B earnings
- ▸Ford Pro segment achieved 10.3% operating margin
- ▸Ford Pro AI analyzes 1 billion vehicle data points daily
- ▸Paid Pro subscriber base grew 30% over the last year
- ▸New AI system developed in partnership with Google Cloud
Ford 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Guidance Set at $5B to $6B
- ▸2026 adjusted FCF guidance $5B–$6B
- ▸2025 GAAP net loss $8.2B due to $8.5B Model e impairments
- ▸2025 Model e segment loss $4.81B; 2026 projected loss $4B–$4.5B
- ▸Ford Pro 2026 EBIT guidance $6.5B–$7.5B
- ▸Cash position $23.36B supports $2.5B annual dividend payout
US Carmakers Face $35 Billion in Cumulative Costs From Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
- ▸$35 billion in cumulative costs incurred by US automakers
- ▸Tariffs on steel and aluminum cited as primary cost driver
- ▸Negative trickle-down economic impact on automotive manufacturing sector
- ▸Steel and aluminum industries benefited at expense of downstream manufacturers
Strattec Q2 Fiscal 2026 Revenue $137.5M +6%, Gross Margin Expands 330bps to 16.5%
- ▸Q2 fiscal 2026 gross margin 16.5%, up 330 bps year-over-year
- ▸Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales $137.5M, +6% year-over-year
- ▸Targeting $3.4M in annualized restructuring savings
- ▸Sustainable gross margin range updated to 15-16%
- ▸Fiscal 2025 operating cash flow increased to $71.7M from $12.2M
Estee Lauder Q2 Fragrance Organic Net Sales Increase 6% Driven by Luxury Portfolio
- ▸Fragrance organic net sales +6% in Q2 fiscal 2026
- ▸Luxury Brands portfolio achieved high-single-digit growth across all regions
- ▸Tom Ford, Le Labo, and Kilian Paris identified as primary growth contributors
- ▸Opened nine net new freestanding stores globally for Jo Malone and Le Labo
- ▸Double-digit retail sales growth recorded across major travel retail partners