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Freeport-McMoRan

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2011–2025(15yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$20.9B	$18.0B	$20.9B	$20.0B	$14.6B	$14.8B	$16.4B	$18.6B	$14.4B	$14.2B	$22.8B	$22.8B	$22.9B	$25.5B	$25.9B	+1.8%
Gross Profit	$10.0B	$6.4B	$6.3B	$1.5B	-$12.8B	-$2.8B	$4.4B	$5.2B	$1.3B	$2.5B	$8.8B	$7.7B	$7.2B	$7.7B	$7.3B	-4.7%
Gross Margin	47.7%	35.8%	30.0%	7.5%	-87.7%	-18.5%	26.7%	27.8%	9.0%	17.9%	38.6%	33.8%	31.3%	30.1%	28.2%	-1.9pp
Operating Income	$9.1B	$5.8B	$5.4B	$97.0M	-$13.4B	-$2.8B	$3.6B	$4.8B	$1.1B	$2.4B	$8.4B	$7.0B	$6.2B	$6.9B	$6.5B	-5.0%
Operating Margin	43.8%	32.3%	25.6%	0.5%	-91.6%	-18.8%	22.1%	25.5%	7.6%	17.2%	36.6%	30.9%	27.2%	27.0%	25.2%	-1.8pp
Net Income	$5.7B	$4.0B	$3.4B	-$745.0M	-$12.1B	-$4.0B	$2.1B	$2.9B	-$189.0M	$865.0M	$5.4B	$4.5B	$3.8B	$4.4B	$4.2B	-5.6%
Net Margin	27.5%	22.1%	16.4%	-3.7%	-82.8%	-27.1%	12.8%	15.5%	-1.3%	6.1%	23.5%	19.7%	16.4%	17.3%	16.0%	-1.3pp
Free Cash Flow	$4.1B	$280.0M	$853.0M	-$1.6B	-$3.1B	$916.0M	$3.3B	$1.9B	-$1.2B	$1.1B	$5.6B	$1.7B	$455.0M	$2.4B	$1.1B	-52.6%
FCF Margin	19.6%	1.6%	4.1%	-7.9%	-21.4%	6.2%	19.9%	10.2%	-8.1%	7.4%	24.5%	7.3%	2.0%	9.2%	4.3%	-4.9pp
EPS (Diluted)	$4.78	$3.19	$2.64	$-1.26	$-11.31	$-3.16	$1.25	$1.78	$-0.17	$0.41	$2.90	$3.11	$2.62	$3.06	$2.89	-5.5%

Total Debt$9.4B

Cash & Equiv.$3.8B

Net Debt$5.6B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Freeport-McMoRan is currently a business defined by the tension between its "Foremost in Copper" strategy and the physical fragility of its primary assets. While Freeport-McMoRan is betting its future on technological innovations like copper leaching to extract value from lower-grade sources, its immediate financial health remains tethered to the successful remediation of the Grasberg minerals district following a catastrophic mud rush.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Freeport-McMoRan’s primary competitive strength—the scale and quality of the Grasberg minerals district—is directly threatened by the September 2025 mud rush incident. This geotechnical failure resulted in seven fatalities and a temporary suspension of operations, which has already begun to erode the "outstanding underground mining performance" management cites as a core advantage (14A Proxy). The incident is expected to significantly impact 2026 financial results through increased remediation costs and production delays (Risks).

Furthermore, Freeport-McMoRan’s "strong balance sheet" is vulnerable to commodity price volatility. With $9.4 billion in total debt and $2.2 billion in reclamation obligations, any extended decline in copper or gold prices could jeopardize Freeport-McMoRan’s ability to service its debt or meet financial covenants (Risks). This financial pressure is compounded by a high reinvestment burden; in FY2025, capital expenditures of $4.49 billion far exceeded the $1.12 billion generated in free cash flow (XBRL).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a company in a tightening vice between falling production and rising costs. While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue grew 1.8%, the most recent quarter showed a decline to $5.63 billion from $5.72 billion a year prior (8-K). This divergence is driven by the Grasberg suspension, which caused copper sales to plummet from 992 million pounds to 709 million pounds in the fourth quarter (8-K).

Despite these operational headwinds, Freeport-McMoRan maintains a net margin of 17.8%, ranking second among its peers (Peer Benchmarking). However, margins are compressing; the gross margin fell by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year as Freeport-McMoRan grappled with the costs of the Indonesia incident (XBRL). Short interest remains relatively low at 2.4% of the float, suggesting that while the operational risks are clear, the market has not yet moved toward a concerted bet against the recovery (Supplemental Signals).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 17.4x, Freeport-McMoRan is trading exactly in line with the peer median (Peer Benchmarking). According to CAPM analysis, this valuation prices in approximately 6.7% long-term growth. This expectation appears aggressive given that Freeport-McMoRan’s TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth is only 1.8% and its most recent quarterly sales volumes for copper and gold have declined sharply.

The sensitivity analysis suggests that if long-term growth slows to a GDP-paced 2.5%, the justified multiple would drop to 10.1x, representing significant downside (CAPM analysis). For the current price to be right, Freeport-McMoRan must not only meet its 2026 guidance of 3.4 billion pounds of copper sales but also prove that its "leach innovation initiatives" can offset the structural risks and rising unit net cash costs, which are expected to average $1.75 per pound in 2026 (8-K).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if 2026 unit net cash costs exceed the $1.75 per pound guidance, indicating that remediation at Grasberg is becoming more expensive than anticipated.
Constructive if copper sales volumes exceed the 3.4 billion pound target for 2026, signaling a faster-than-expected return to full capacity in Indonesia.
Cautious if Freeport-McMoRan is unable to maintain its current $7.77 billion working capital position, which provides the necessary cushion to fund $4.3 billion in planned 2026 capital expenditures (8-K, XBRL).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Massive scale in the Grasberg minerals district and proprietary leaching technology designed to extract copper from low-grade stockpiles.

Bottom Line: Freeport-McMoRan is a high-quality operator facing a high-stakes recovery; until production volumes at Grasberg stabilize, the stock’s premium valuation leaves little room for further operational error.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Commodity Price Volatility: Freeport-McMoRan’s financial results are highly sensitive to market prices for copper, gold, and molybdenum. Extended declines could impair asset values, depress the stock price, and jeopardize Freeport-McMoRan’s ability to service its $9.4 billion in debt or meet financial covenants.
Grasberg Block Cave Incident: The September 2025 mud rush incident resulted in seven fatalities and the temporary suspension of operations. The incident has already impacted second-half 2025 results and is expected to significantly affect 2026 operating and financial performance due to remediation costs and production delays.
Operational and Geotechnical Challenges: Mining in steep, mountainous, and seismically active terrain in Indonesia exposes Freeport-McMoRan to risks of landslides, floods, and structural failures. These events can lead to loss of life, equipment damage, and the suspension of mining and milling operations.
Financial Assurance and Reclamation Obligations: Freeport-McMoRan is required to provide $2.2 billion in financial assurance for U.S. mine closure and reclamation. Changes in regulations or the inability to provide these guarantees (via letters of credit or surety bonds) could force the closure of affected properties.
Supply Chain and Logistics Constraints: Freeport-McMoRan relies on the timely inbound transport of consumables (such as diesel, sulfuric acid, and steel) and outbound transport of commodities. Delays or cost increases in these logistics, often driven by geopolitical tensions or extreme weather, directly impact profitability and production schedules.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Indonesia Regulatory and IUPK Risks: PTFI’s mining rights through 2041 are contingent on fulfilling fiscal and other obligations under its IUPK. Failure to meet these terms or secure a long-term extension beyond 2041 would prevent the mining of significant proven and probable reserves.
Controlled Riverine Tailings Management: PTFI utilizes a controlled riverine tailings management system in Indonesia. Any failure of containment structures or regulatory changes regarding this system could result in severe environmental damage, social unrest, and significant remediation costs.
Security and Civil Strife in Central Papua: The Grasberg minerals district faces risks from separatist movements and civil strife. Violent incidents, including shootings and arson, have occurred within the project area, threatening the safety of the workforce and the continuity of operations.
Holding Company Structure: As a holding company with no material assets other than subsidiary stock, Freeport-McMoRan’s ability to pay dividends or repurchase shares depends entirely on cash flows from subsidiaries, which may be restricted by local laws, foreign withholding taxes, or subsidiary-level debt covenants.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

SEC and DOJ Investigations: Freeport-McMoRan is cooperating with a subpoena from the SEC and an information request from the DOJ regarding public disclosures about the engineering design and construction of PTFI’s smelter in Indonesia.
Securities and Derivative Litigation: Freeport-McMoRan is currently defending against a securities class action and a shareholder derivative lawsuit arising from the September 2025 mud rush incident.
Tax Law Interpretations: Freeport-McMoRan faces uncertainty regarding the application of the U.S. Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) and the potential impact of the OECD’s Pillar Two global minimum tax framework on its international operations.
Environmental Remediation Liability: Freeport-McMoRan is responsible for over 80 active remediation projects across 23 U.S. states, stemming from historical mining and smelting activities. Liability is often joint and several, meaning Freeport-McMoRan may be held fully responsible for costs even if other parties contributed to the contamination.

4. Financial Impact Map

Commodity Price Volatility → Financial Condition/Debt Covenants → Extended declines may trigger events of default or limit the ability to service $9.4 billion in total consolidated debt. Grasberg Block Cave Incident → Results of Operations → Significant impact on 2026 operating results due to remediation expenditures and production volume reductions. Financial Assurance Obligations → Liquidity/Cash Flows → $2.2 billion in U.S. closure and reclamation obligations requires ongoing capital allocation and potential use of costly letters of credit or surety bonds. Indonesia Export Proceeds Regulation → Cash Flows/Liquidity → The March 2025 Regulation requires 100% of export proceeds to be deposited in Indonesia banks for 12 months, limiting immediate access to cash for global corporate requirements. Energy Cost Volatility → Copper Mine Site Operating Costs → Energy represented 15% of copper mine site operating costs in 2025 and is projected to approximate 17% in 2026.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—