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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.0B | $35.5B | $34.7B | $39.3B | $42.7B | $44.3B | $45.6B | $47.5B | $50.4B | $60.3B | $65.5B | $69.7B | $69.2B | $84.0B | $93.5B | $90.2B | $87.7B | $87.9B | +0.3% |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $46.7B | $50.3B | $53.0B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 77.4% | 76.9% | 76.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $2.1B | $747.0M | $2.0B | $2.4B | $3.2B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $1.9B | $3.1B | $5.0B | $4.9B | $4.5B | $2.4B | $5.9B | $6.2B | $4.9B | $5.6B | $5.2B | -6.2% |
| Operating Margin | 5.5% | 2.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | -0.4pp |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $98.0M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $1.1B | $1.8B | $3.0B | $4.6B | $540.0M | $1.3B | $5.2B | $3.8B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | -5.5% |
| Net Margin | 3.0% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | -0.3pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $518.0M | $294.0M | $322.0M | $607.0M | $828.0M | $1.3B | $731.0M | $1.0B | $890.0M | -$186.0M | -$989.0M | $123.0M | -$771.0M | $4.3B | $3.1B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.0B | -4.9% |
| FCF Margin | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.3% | -1.5% | 0.2% | -1.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | -0.2pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.60 | $0.31 | $3.76 | $4.57 | $6.41 | $4.91 | $6.75 | $3.65 | $6.51 | $11.07 | $16.79 | $2.03 | $4.90 | $19.45 | $14.33 | $15.48 | $17.21 | $16.81 | -2.3% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
FedEx is currently a company in the middle of a forced evolution, trading its historical decentralized model for a unified "one FedEx" structure to solve a persistent profitability gap. Its success depends on whether internal efficiency gains from the DRIVE and Network 2.0 programs can outpace the structural threat of its largest customers becoming its most dangerous competitors.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "unmatched global network" that FedEx cites as its primary competitive advantage (Business) is directly threatened by "high-volume package shippers" developing in-house delivery capabilities (Risks). This is a structural vulnerability because as customers like Amazon transition from partners to rivals, they peel off high-density, profitable volume, leaving FedEx to manage the more expensive, lower-density segments of its network (Competitive Position).
Furthermore, the "flexibility" management claims in its portfolio is being tested by "macroeconomic cyclicality" (Risks). This hit home in the most recent quarter, where a collapse in industrial production led to a 71% decline in operating income for the FedEx Freight segment (Recent Results). This proves that even a network connecting 99% of global GDP cannot bypass a fundamental manufacturing slowdown.
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company with massive scale but trailing efficiency. FedEx generates the highest revenue in its peer group at $89.8 billion, yet it maintains the lowest operating margin (5.5%) and net margin (3.8%) among all six tracked peers (Peer Benchmarking). While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth is nearly flat at 0.3%, the most recent quarter showed a jump to $23.5 billion from $22.0 billion (Recent Results). This divergence suggests that "yield improvements" and "transformation initiatives" in the Federal Express segment are beginning to take hold, even as the Freight segment acts as a significant drag.
Management is aggressively using capital to signal confidence, leading the peer group with a 2.7% buyback yield (Peer Benchmarking). However, with net debt at $13.7 billion and a modest FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin of 4.2%, FedEx is essentially betting that the DRIVE program’s "structural cost reductions" will materialize fast enough to sustain these returns to shareholders (XBRL).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 16.7x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, FedEx trades at a 15% discount to the peer median of 19.7x (Peer Benchmarking). This discount is fundamentally tied to its margin profile; it is difficult to command a premium multiple when operating margins are 5.5% while rail peers like Norfolk Southern (NSC) are at 40.9%.
The market is currently pricing in 5.6% long-term growth (Valuation Context). For this price to be justified, FedEx must prove it can grow earnings through the DRIVE program's $4 billion in targeted savings rather than relying on a volatile macro environment. If global growth remains sluggish and FedEx's growth slows to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of only 11.1x—representing significant downside from current levels (Valuation Context).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the Federal Express segment's operating margin, which recently rose to 7.6% (Recent Results), continues to climb toward double digits, proving that the "one FedEx" consolidation is successfully removing redundant costs.
- Cautious if the planned "spin-off of FedEx Freight" (Risks) occurs while industrial production remains weak, as this would remove a segment that, despite recent struggles, has historically delivered much higher margins (14.3%) than the core express business (Recent Results).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A massive integrated global air-ground network that is nearly impossible to replicate, now being enhanced by AI-driven volume forecasting via FedEx Dataworks.
Bottom Line: FedEx is a high-stakes turnaround play that requires perfect execution of its internal merger to offset the permanent loss of volume to its former customers.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Macroeconomic Cyclicality: FedEx is highly susceptible to global economic trends; when individuals and companies purchase or produce fewer goods, FedEx transports fewer goods, directly impacting yields and results of operations.
- DRIVE Transformation Execution: The failure to successfully implement the DRIVE program—including Network 2.0 and Tricolor—within expected time frames and costs could result in asset impairment charges, higher-than-expected expenses, and the loss of customers.
- Competitive Pressure from Shippers: High-volume package shippers, such as Amazon, are increasingly developing in-house delivery capabilities and offering these services to third parties, which could reduce FedEx revenue and negatively affect financial results.
- Fuel Price Volatility: FedEx must purchase large quantities of jet and vehicle fuel; while indexed fuel surcharges generally mitigate these costs, an inability to maintain or increase these surcharges due to competitive pricing pressures could adversely affect operating results.
- Geopolitical and Trade Policy Uncertainty: Conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, along with shifting international trade policies and tariffs, can disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and reduce the volume of goods transported globally.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Spin-off of FedEx Freight: The planned separation of FedEx Freight into a separate, publicly traded company by June 2026 involves significant costs, potential operational dis-synergies, and the risk that the resulting entities may be less diversified and more vulnerable to market volatility.
- USPS Contract Expiration: The contract for Federal Express to provide domestic air transportation services for the USPS expired on September 29, 2024; failure to fully remove the associated costs from the air network could negatively affect profitability.
- Self-Insurance Exposure: FedEx is self-insured for workers’ compensation, vehicle accidents, and general business liabilities; the rise of "nuclear" jury verdicts in the trucking industry could lead to claims exceeding aggregate insurance coverage, forcing FedEx to bear the excess costs.
- Technology Infrastructure Integration: The transition of operating company functionality to enterprise automation platforms and the integration of acquired businesses like ShopRunner pose risks of data breaches, operational disruptions, and the potential for unauthorized access to sensitive information.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Labor Classification Challenges: FedEx faces ongoing litigation regarding whether it should be treated as a joint employer of drivers employed by third-party service providers; adverse rulings could result in significant liabilities for wage payments, penalties, and employment taxes.
- Data Protection Compliance: FedEx is subject to evolving global data privacy laws, including the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation and various U.S. state laws; failure to comply could result in litigation, fines, and sanctions.
- Aviation and Transportation Rights: The right to serve foreign points is subject to DOT approval and bilateral agreements; regulatory actions or a failure to maintain these rights could impair the ability to operate the global air network.
- Climate-Related Regulation: Increasing global efforts to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could impose substantial taxes, fees, and costs on FedEx, including potential capital costs for updating aircraft and vehicles prematurely.
4. Financial Impact Map
Macroeconomic Cyclicality → Revenue → Lower freight and package volumes directly reduce top-line growth. DRIVE Transformation Execution → Operating Expenses / Asset Impairment Charges → Inefficient implementation may lead to higher-than-expected costs and noncash impairment charges on assets. Competitive Pressure from Shippers → Revenue → Loss of volume to in-house delivery networks reduces total revenue. Fuel Price Volatility → Operating Expenses → Unmitigated fuel costs directly increase the cost of operations and purchased transportation expense. Spin-off of FedEx Freight → Operating Expenses / Cash Flows → Significant transaction-related costs and potential operational dis-synergies may impact cash flows and permanent cost structures.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Dec 2025 | — |
| 10-Q | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 |
| 14A | Aug 2025 | — |
| 10-K | Jul 2025 | May 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
FedEx Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Raises FY Revenue Growth Outlook to 6.0%-6.5%
- ▸Q3 earnings and revenue topped consensus expectations
- ▸Raised FY revenue growth guidance to 6.0%–6.5%
- ▸Planned June 1, 2026 spin-off of FedEx Freight into standalone entity
- ▸AI-driven logistics efficiencies and FedEx SameDay Local service driving momentum
- ▸Fair value estimate of $371.45 suggests modest undervaluation
FedEx Launches SameDay Local Delivery Service and Appoints Healthcare Logistics VP
- ▸Launched FedEx SameDay Local service with real-time tracking for local markets
- ▸Appointed new healthcare-focused VP of quality to expand specialized logistics
- ▸Strategic shift toward higher-margin, specialized shipping and pharmaceutical segments
- ▸Shares trading 13% below analyst consensus price target of $400.43
- ▸Company currently trading 53.4% below estimated fair value
FedEx Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Raises Full-Year Outlook Amid Network 2.0 Consolidation
- ▸Fiscal Q3 results outperformed analyst expectations
- ▸Full-year earnings outlook raised following quarterly outperformance
- ▸Network 2.0 initiative to permanently close numerous shipping facilities
- ▸Focus on operational efficiency and reduced facility footprint
- ▸Shares trading 52.9% below estimated fair value
FedEx Q3 EPS $5.25 beats estimates of $4.15; revenue $24B tops $23.5B forecast
- ▸Q3 EPS $5.25 vs $4.15 consensus estimate
- ▸Q3 revenue $24B vs $23.5B consensus estimate
- ▸Significant earnings beat driven by operational performance
- ▸Fiscal third-quarter results exceeded Wall Street expectations
FedEx raises fiscal outlook following third quarter revenue growth
- ▸FedEx raised fiscal outlook following Q3 revenue growth
- ▸SMCI placed two employees on leave over server diversion scheme
- ▸SMCI terminated contractor involved in server diversion scheme
- ▸FedEx shares rose 0.8% following earnings update
FedEx Q3 EPS $5.25 beats $4.14 estimate; FY26 guidance raised on revenue growth
- ▸Q3 EPS $5.25, up 16.4% YoY, beating consensus estimate of $4.14
- ▸Q3 revenue $24.0B, up 8.3% YoY, exceeding $23.5B estimate
- ▸Raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 6-6.5% from 5-6%
- ▸Increased FY26 adjusted EPS guidance range to $19.30–$20.10
- ▸FedEx Freight spin-off remains on track for June 1, 2026
FedEx Q3 EPS $5.25 beats estimates by 26.8%, revenue $24B up 8% YoY
- ▸Q3 EPS $5.25 vs $4.14 consensus, +26.8% beat
- ▸Q3 revenue $24B, +1.75% above estimates and up from $22.2B YoY
- ▸Shares +7.5% in pre-market trading on strong demand forecast
- ▸Fed Governor Waller cites geopolitical oil supply shock as inflation risk
- ▸PPI +3.4% and CPI +3.9% year-over-year indicate persistent inflation pressures
FedEx Q4 earnings beat estimates, raises full-year guidance despite geopolitical headwinds
- ▸FedEx Q4 earnings beat top and bottom line Wall Street estimates
- ▸FedEx raised full-year financial guidance citing resilient demand trends
- ▸SMCI shares plunged 28% following co-founder arrest for smuggling NVDA servers to China
- ▸PL shares surged after Q4 revenue beat and raised outlook on defense demand
- ▸DELL shares rose on analyst expectations of market share gains from SMCI controversy
FedEx Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance Amid Strong Performance
- ▸Q3 earnings per share exceeded analyst expectations
- ▸Full-year financial guidance raised following strong quarterly results
- ▸Stock price surged in Friday morning trading session
- ▸Shipping volume and operational efficiency drove quarterly outperformance
FedEx Q3 EPS $5.25 beats estimates by $1.12, up 16.4% YoY
- ▸Q3 EPS $5.25, beating consensus estimates by $1.12
- ▸Earnings per share increased 16.4% year-over-year
- ▸Stock up 26% year-to-date despite recent geopolitical volatility
- ▸Shares breaking above key technical support level