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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.7B | $14.7B | $14.8B | $14.9B | $16.7B | $17.8B | $17.9B | $17.6B | $16.6B | $15.6B | $15.7B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $19.5B | +856.3% |
| Gross Profit | $4.9B | $5.2B | $5.9B | $6.0B | $6.0B | $6.4B | $6.4B | $5.9B | $5.8B | $5.6B | $5.4B | -$9.1B | -$9.5B | -$9.5B | -$10.5B | -$11.6B | -$10.9B | $6.7B | +161.8% |
| Gross Margin | 35.7% | 35.6% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 36.3% | 36.1% | 35.6% | 33.7% | 35.2% | 35.6% | 34.5% | -443.5% | -462.0% | -433.5% | -489.9% | -592.2% | -534.3% | 34.6% | +568.8pp |
| Operating Income | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.3B | -3.7% |
| Operating Margin | 16.3% | 15.8% | 17.6% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 123.1% | 144.4% | 143.7% | 162.9% | 175.4% | 168.4% | 17.0% | -151.4pp |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.2B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.3B | -8.1% |
| Net Margin | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 85.8% | 106.6% | 106.9% | 126.8% | 132.5% | 122.5% | 11.8% | -110.7pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $878.0M | $1.7B | $2.3B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $3.2B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.3B | -9.3% |
| FCF Margin | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 111.0% | 157.2% | 112.0% | 128.7% | 106.7% | 124.1% | 11.8% | -112.3pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.85 | $1.90 | $2.24 | $2.69 | $2.35 | $2.79 | $2.83 | $1.97 | $2.77 | $2.77 | $3.64 | $2.90 | $3.56 | $3.78 | $4.42 | $4.31 | $4.31 | $4.10 | -4.9% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
General Mills is a business in the midst of a structural overhaul, swapping its North American yogurt operations for higher-growth pet food while struggling to stop its core retail volumes from sliding. General Mills is caught between the rising power of giant retailers and a consumer base increasingly sensitive to price, forcing a reliance on heavy promotions that are eating into profit margins.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
General Mills’s stated strength in "effective customer relationships" is directly threatened by its extreme customer concentration. Walmart alone controls 22% of total sales and 31% of the North America Retail segment (10-K Item 1A). This imbalance gives the retailer the leverage to demand lower prices or prioritize its own private-label brands, which General Mills explicitly identifies as a threat to its market share (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the "Accelerate" strategy’s focus on brand investment is being tested by "challenging consumer sentiment," where the need to offer "greater value" to maintain volume is leading to the margin compression seen in recent results (14A Proxy, XBRL).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a stark disconnect between top-line accounting and operational reality. While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth appears astronomical at +856.3% due to a prior-year anomaly, the most recent quarter shows a 7% decline in net sales and a 48% plunge in net earnings (10-Q, Peer Benchmarking). This divergence is driven by a massive 16-point volume drop in North America Retail, which was only slightly mitigated by price increases. Despite these headwinds, General Mills remains a highly efficient cash generator compared to its peers, leading the group with a 17.8% operating margin and returning 4.9% of its market cap to shareholders through buybacks. Short interest at 8.1% of the float suggests significant market skepticism regarding General Mills’s ability to stabilize these volumes (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 12.2x, General Mills trades at a 27% discount to the peer median of 16.8x. This makes the stock attractively valued, as the discount is paired with a specific quality premium: General Mills maintains the highest operating and net margins in its peer group. The market is currently pricing in very low expectations for growth; however, General Mills’s 5.6% dividend yield and top-tier buyback yield provide a significant cushion for investors while management attempts to "restore volume-driven organic net sales growth" (8-K). The primary risk to this valuation is the high net debt of $11.5B, which leaves little room for error if commodity prices spike or if the Whitebridge Pet Brands acquisition fails to offset the lost yogurt revenue.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if North America Retail volumes stabilize or turn positive for two consecutive quarters without requiring further deep promotional discounting.
- Cautious if Walmart’s share of sales increases beyond the current 22%, signaling even greater dependency on a single buyer’s pricing whims.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A dominant grain merchandising operation that provides proprietary commodity market insights and a peer-leading 17.8% operating margin. Bottom Line: General Mills is a high-yield turnaround play whose cheap valuation compensates for the risks of its massive retail concentration and shrinking North American volumes.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Competitive Environment: General Mills faces intense competition from branded, regional, and private-label products. If General Mills does not match competitor pricing or promotional activity, it risks losing market share and revenue; if it does match them, it risks compressing its own margins and profitability (10-K Item 1A).
- Retail Consolidation: The grocery industry has consolidated, increasing the purchasing power of large retail customers. These customers may demand lower pricing or emphasize their own private-label brands, which could negatively impact General Mills’ volume growth and profitability (10-K Item 1A).
- Customer Concentration: General Mills relies heavily on large retail customers. In fiscal 2025, Walmart accounted for 22 percent of consolidated net sales and 31 percent of net sales for the North America Retail segment (10-K Item 1A).
- Commodity Price Volatility: General Mills depends on commodities—including grains, oils, and dairy—that are subject to price fluctuations due to weather, trade tariffs, and geopolitical events. If General Mills cannot increase productivity or raise prices to offset these costs, profitability will suffer (10-K Item 1A).
- Consumer Preference Shifts: Success depends on anticipating changing tastes, including the impact of weight-loss drugs and health concerns regarding ingredients like sugar and sodium. Failure to adapt to these trends or emerging e-commerce channels could reduce demand for General Mills’ products (10-K Item 1A).
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Brand Equity and Reputation: General Mills’ success relies on the perceived value of iconic brands like Blue Buffalo, Pillsbury, and Häagen-Dazs. Negative publicity, whether valid or not, or a failure to maintain product quality can significantly diminish brand value and consumer demand (10-K Item 1A).
- Supply Chain Fragility: Many of General Mills’ product lines are manufactured at a single location or sourced from a single supplier. Disruptions due to cyber-attacks, labor shortages, or natural disasters could impair the ability to manufacture or sell products (10-K Item 1A).
- Acquisition Integration: General Mills evaluates potential acquisitions to further strategic objectives. Failure to successfully integrate these businesses can lead to the loss of key employees, the assumption of unknown liabilities, and the impairment of goodwill (10-K Item 1A).
- Defined Benefit Plans: General Mills sponsors defined benefit pension plans funded by trust assets. Volatility in interest rates, investment returns, and mortality rates can affect the funded status of these plans, causing volatility in net periodic benefit costs and future funding requirements (10-K Item 1A).
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Product Liability and Recalls: If products become adulterated, misbranded, or mislabeled, General Mills may face significant costs from product recalls and potential product liability judgments (10-K Item 1A).
- Regulatory Compliance: Facilities and products are subject to oversight by the FDA, USDA, and OSHA. Failure to comply with laws regarding production, labeling, and employee safety can result in fines, injunctions, and recalls (10-K Item 1A).
- Environmental Remediation: General Mills is party to various environmental remediation obligations. Costs associated with these matters or future compliance with environmental laws could exceed established liabilities (10-K Item 1A).
- Sustainability Disclosure: General Mills has announced goals to reduce its carbon footprint. Failure to achieve or properly report progress toward these goals could lead to negative publicity and harm General Mills’s reputation (10-K Item 1A).
4. Financial Impact Map
Competitive Pricing/Promotions → Operating Profit → Margin compression if General Mills matches competitor pricing or loss of market share if it does not. Retailer Consolidation → Volume Growth → Potential loss of sales and profits if General Mills cannot meet retailer demands for lower pricing or increased promotional programs. Customer Concentration (Walmart) → Consolidated Net Sales → 22 percent of total sales and 31 percent of North America Retail sales are at risk if the relationship is lost. Commodity Price Volatility → Cost of Sales → Unexpected increases in raw material, packaging, energy, and transportation costs. Goodwill and Intangible Assets → Net Worth → Impairment losses if growth expectations for brands like Progresso or Nudges are not met, requiring a write-down of the $22.4 billion in goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Dec 2025 | — |
| 10-Q | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 |
| 14A | Aug 2025 | — |
| 10-K | Jun 2025 | May 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
General Mills shares hit 15-year low as FY26 earnings outlook cut 16-20%
- ▸Stock down 21% YTD, trading at 15-year low with 6.7% dividend yield
- ▸FY26 adjusted earnings forecast cut by 16% to 20%
- ▸FY26 organic sales outlook slashed to 1.5%–2% decline
- ▸Q3 organic net sales -3%, adjusted operating profit -32% in constant currency
- ▸International segment organic sales +3% with operating profit more than doubling
General Mills forecasts 16-20% fiscal 2026 EPS decline amid inflationary margin pressure
- ▸Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to decline 16% to 20%
- ▸Fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS declined 7%
- ▸Dividend yield currently at 6.6% following 36.7% stock price decline
- ▸Cheerios Protein line expansion forecasted to reach $100 million in annual sales
- ▸Inflationary pressures and rising oil costs straining margins and consumer demand
General Mills shares down 42% from 52-week high; dividend yield hits 6.53%
- ▸GIS stock down 23% YTD and 38% over past 12 months
- ▸Dividend yield reached 6.53% due to declining equity value
- ▸Company guiding for double-digit decline in earnings
- ▸Forward P/E ratio compressed to 10.77x
- ▸Rising oil prices threaten margins via increased transportation and packaging costs
General Mills price target cut to $32 from $37 at TD Cowen
- ▸TD Cowen lowers GIS price target to $32 from $37
- ▸Maintains Hold rating on General Mills shares
- ▸Cites higher input costs from Iran War and limited pricing power
- ▸Warns dividends at risk for GIS, CAG, and CPB
- ▸Food makers prioritizing debt reduction following 2025 margin erosion
RBC Cuts General Mills PT to $55, TD Cowen Slashes to $37 Following Q3 Miss
- ▸RBC Capital lowered GIS price target to $55 from $60
- ▸TD Cowen cut GIS price target to $37 from $45
- ▸Company missed fiscal Q3 EPS estimates
- ▸Management maintained fiscal year 2026 guidance
- ▸Inventory headwinds expected to reverse in fiscal Q4
General Mills Q1 EPS $0.64 misses estimates by 12.1%, revenue declines 8.4% YoY
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.64 vs $0.73 estimate, a 12.1% miss
- ▸Revenue $4.44B vs $4.42B estimate, down 8.4% YoY
- ▸Sales volumes declined 11% year-on-year
- ▸Operating margin contracted to 11.8% from 18.4% prior year
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $686.6M, missing estimates by 5.6%
General Mills price target cut to $35 at UBS following Q3 earnings miss
- ▸UBS lowered price target to $35 from $40, maintains Sell rating
- ▸Q3 organic sales, gross margin, and operating margin missed expectations
- ▸Q4 guidance suggests limited sequential improvement
- ▸Volume trends remain weak with category growth under pressure
- ▸Long-term FY27 growth targets viewed as aspirational by analysts
General Mills to sell Brazil business to 3coracoes to optimize portfolio
- ▸Divesting Brazil business including Yoki and Kitano brands to 3coracoes
- ▸Brazil unit contributed approximately $350M to fiscal 2025 net sales
- ▸Transaction expected to close by end of calendar 2026
- ▸Fiscal Q3 2026 net sales -8% to $4.4B; EPS -37%
- ▸Company has reshaped nearly one-third of portfolio since fiscal 2018
General Mills Q3 organic sales -3%, adjusted EPS -37% to $0.64, shares drop 3%
- ▸Q3 organic sales fell 3% to $4.4B
- ▸Adjusted EPS declined 37% to $0.64
- ▸Adjusted operating profit dropped 32% to $547M
- ▸North America retail volumes declined 19%
- ▸Maintained full-year forecast for declines in most financial metrics
Macy's, Williams-Sonoma beat Q4 estimates; General Mills, Weibo miss earnings expectations
- ▸Macy's Q4 adjusted EPS $1.67, beating $1.53 estimate
- ▸General Mills Q3 adjusted EPS $0.64, missing $0.74 estimate
- ▸Williams-Sonoma Q4 adjusted EPS $3.04, beating $2.89 estimate
- ▸Weibo Q4 adjusted EPS $0.25, missing $0.31 estimate
- ▸Market reactions ranged from +4.7% for Macy's to -10.7% for Weibo