GNRC

Industrials

Generac

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2009–2025(17yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$588.2M	$592.9M	$792.0M	$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.2B	$2.5B	$3.7B	$4.6B	$4.0B	$4.3B	$4.2B	-2.0%
Gross Profit	$235.8M	$237.4M	$294.7M	$440.4M	$569.6M	$516.2M	$459.9M	$514.1M	$582.1M	$725.0M	$797.8M	$957.7M	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.6B	-3.2%
Gross Margin	40.1%	40.0%	37.2%	37.4%	38.3%	35.3%	34.9%	35.5%	34.7%	35.8%	36.2%	38.5%	36.4%	33.3%	33.9%	38.8%	38.3%	-0.5pp
Operating Income	$98.5M	$90.3M	$113.0M	$223.6M	$351.5M	$293.4M	$179.6M	$204.6M	$251.1M	$357.2M	$372.2M	$479.1M	$721.1M	$566.3M	$386.2M	$536.7M	$289.2M	-46.1%
Operating Margin	16.7%	15.2%	14.3%	19.0%	23.7%	20.1%	13.6%	14.1%	14.9%	17.7%	16.9%	19.3%	19.3%	12.4%	9.6%	12.5%	6.9%	-5.6pp
Net Income	$43.1M	$56.9M	$324.6M	$93.2M	$174.5M	$174.6M	$77.7M	$98.8M	$159.4M	$238.3M	$252.0M	$350.6M	$550.5M	$399.5M	$214.6M	$316.3M	$159.6M	-49.6%
Net Margin	7.3%	9.6%	41.0%	7.9%	11.7%	12.0%	5.9%	6.8%	9.5%	11.8%	11.4%	14.1%	14.7%	8.8%	5.3%	7.4%	3.8%	-3.6pp
Free Cash Flow	$70.1M	$104.8M	$157.7M	$213.2M	$229.2M	$218.3M	$158.0M	$222.9M	$227.9M	$199.6M	$248.1M	$424.4M	$301.2M	-$27.7M	$392.6M	$604.6M	$268.1M	-55.6%
FCF Margin	11.9%	17.7%	19.9%	18.1%	15.4%	14.9%	12.0%	15.4%	13.6%	9.9%	11.3%	17.1%	8.1%	-0.6%	9.8%	14.1%	6.4%	-7.7pp
EPS (Diluted)	—	—	$4.79	$1.35	$2.51	$2.49	$1.12	$1.50	$2.56	$3.54	$4.03	$5.48	$8.30	$5.42	$3.27	$5.39	$2.69	-50.1%

Total Debt$1.2B

Cash & Equiv.$341.4M

Net Debt$852.3M

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Generac is attempting a high-stakes pivot from being a weather-dependent retailer of home backup power to a critical infrastructure provider for the AI-driven data center boom. While its residential core is currently shrinking due to a "softer outage environment," management is doubling down on large-scale industrial capacity to capture a supply-constrained market for massive backup generators (8-K).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Generac’s push into the data center market—a pillar of its "Powering a Smarter World" strategy—is directly threatened by its supply chain concentration. Generac relies on a small number of outside manufacturers for the large engines essential for data center applications (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, its dominant position in North American residential power is structurally volatile; because demand is tied to power grid reliability, periods of stability lead to excess inventory and sharp revenue declines, as seen in the 23% drop in residential sales last quarter (8-K).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While the narrative focuses on the AI-driven data center opportunity, the financial reality remains anchored to a struggling residential core. Generac’s TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of -2.0% ranks 5th among its six-company peer group, and its 10.9% operating margin is the lowest in the set (XBRL). This divergence is driven by a 23% collapse in residential shipments that outweighed a 10% gain in commercial and industrial (C&I) sales (8-K). Short interest stands at 7.1% of the float, suggesting significant market skepticism regarding the speed of this recovery (Yahoo Finance). Generac's 2026 guidance for mid-teens growth represents a sharp reversal from current performance, predicated on C&I sales growing by 30% (8-K).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 20.6x forward earnings, Generac trades in line with its peer median of 19.7x, suggesting the market is already pricing in a successful turnaround. This valuation implies a long-term growth rate of approximately 9.4% (CAPM analysis). However, Generac’s current fundamentals—specifically a net margin of 6.9%, which is the lowest among peers like Dover (14.5%) and Emerson (12.7%)—struggle to support such a premium. If long-term growth reaches only 8.0%, the justified multiple would drop to 16.1x, representing a 22% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis). Investors are paying a "fair value" price for a company that currently lags its peers in every major margin category.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if C&I sales growth meets or exceeds the 30% target in 2026, proving the data center pivot can offset residential volatility (8-K).
Cautious if operating margins remain at the bottom of the peer group (10.9%), indicating that the shift to larger, more complex industrial products is not yielding expected scale efficiencies (XBRL).
Cautious if product liability or intellectual property litigation results in further material adverse effects on cash flow or brand reputation (10-K Item 1A).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A dominant North American residential distribution network paired with a leading position in natural gas-fueled generators for microgrids.

Bottom Line: Generac is a weather-sensitive business trying to reprice itself as an AI infrastructure play, but its bottom-tier margins and supply chain bottlenecks make the current valuation a speculative bet on perfect execution.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Power Outage Dependency: Demand for the majority of Generac’s products is tied to the frequency and severity of power grid reliability issues. Sustained periods without major outages lead to reduced consumer awareness, excess inventory, and lower sales growth rates.
Supply Chain Concentration: Generac depends on a small number of outside manufacturers and single-source suppliers for key components, including large engines for data center applications and clean energy products. Disruptions at these suppliers can impair Generac’s ability to deliver products.
Intellectual Property Litigation: Generac faces ongoing risks from third-party infringement claims, which can result in costly litigation, damage awards, or the requirement to redesign products. Recent adverse rulings or settlements have already impacted Generac.
Product Liability and Warranty Claims: Generac faces potential material adverse effects from product liability lawsuits, warranty claims, and recalls. These events can lead to substantial unexpected expenditures, reduced operating profit, and damage to brand reputation.
Macroeconomic and Consumer Spending Sensitivity: Sales are sensitive to durable goods spending, residential investment, and interest rates. A downturn in the non-residential construction sector or a decline in consumer confidence directly threatens net sales and profitability.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Geographic Manufacturing Concentration: A significant portion of Generac’s manufacturing facilities are located within a 100-mile radius in Wisconsin, creating a risk of prolonged production shutdowns due to localized natural disasters or operational failures.
Data Center Market Uncertainty: While Generac is expanding into high-output diesel generators for data centers, the growth of this industry is difficult to project, and failure to meet the specific technical or contractual requirements of these customers could result in reduced revenue.
Sustainability Reporting Costs: Evolving regulatory requirements, such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, impose substantial additional costs and resource demands on Generac.
Share Repurchase Volatility: The $500 million stock repurchase program authorized on February 9, 2026, does not obligate Generac to buy back shares and could diminish cash reserves or cause stock price volatility if modified or suspended.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Environmental and Safety Compliance: Generac is subject to extensive regulations governing emissions, noise, and waste disposal (e.g., EPA, CARB, CPSC). Non-compliance can lead to substantial fines, civil or criminal proceedings, and the need to redesign products.
Trade Policy and Tariffs: Changes in U.S. trade policy, including the imposition of retaliatory tariffs during 2025, have increased supply chain costs. Future trade restrictions or the withdrawal from trade agreements could further impact gross margins.
Data Privacy and Cybersecurity: As Generac increases product connectivity, it faces evolving global data privacy and cybersecurity regulations. Failure to comply could result in fines, inhibit sales, and damage Generac's reputation.
Tax Law Changes: The enactment of the OBBBA on July 4, 2025, eliminated or reduced several tax credits for energy-related technologies, negatively impacting Generac’s business in the short term.

4. Financial Impact Map

Power Outage Activity → Net Sales and Profits → Unpredictable variations in demand lead to potential excess inventory and reduced sales growth. Supply Chain Disruptions → Cost of Goods Sold / Net Sales → Inability to obtain components leads to lost sales and increased costs to secure alternative supplies. Intellectual Property Litigation → Net Income / Cash Flow → Costs associated with defending claims, damage awards, or settlement payments. Product Liability and Warranty Claims → Operating Profit / Cash Flow → Expenses related to repairs, replacements, recalls, and legal settlements exceeding insurance coverage. Indebtedness and Interest Rates → Interest Expense → Total indebtedness of $1,333.1 million as of December 31, 2025, is subject to variable interest rates based on SOFR.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—