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Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2011–2025(15yr)| Metric | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.8B | $34.2B | $34.2B | $34.5B | $33.8B | $30.6B | $32.1B | $36.6B | $36.5B | $44.6B | $59.3B | $47.4B | $46.3B | $53.5B | $58.3B | +8.9% |
| Net Income | $4.4B | $7.5B | $8.0B | $8.5B | $6.1B | $7.4B | $4.3B | $10.5B | $8.5B | $9.5B | $21.6B | $11.3B | $8.5B | $14.3B | $17.2B | +20.3% |
| Net Margin | 15.4% | 21.9% | 23.5% | 24.6% | 18.0% | 24.2% | 13.4% | 28.6% | 23.2% | 21.2% | 36.5% | 23.8% | 18.4% | 26.7% | 29.5% | +2.8pp |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — | $3.6B | -$21.4B | $12.4B | $15.4B | -$20.0B | -$3.7B | $5.0B | -$14.9B | -$15.3B | -$47.2B | -208.6% |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — | — | 11.8% | -66.8% | 34.0% | 42.2% | -45.0% | -6.3% | 10.5% | -32.2% | -28.6% | -81.0% | -52.4pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.51 | $14.13 | $15.46 | $17.07 | $12.14 | $16.29 | $9.01 | $25.27 | $21.03 | $24.74 | $59.45 | $30.06 | $22.87 | $40.54 | $51.32 | +26.6% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Goldman Sachs is undergoing a strategic contraction to regain its institutional edge. By offloading the Apple Card and launching the "OneGS 3.0" efficiency drive, Goldman Sachs is signaling that its foray into mass-market consumer finance was a distraction from its primary identity as a premier risk intermediary and M&AM&AMergers & Acquisitions — the buying, selling, or combining of companies advisor.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Goldman Sachs’s "OneGS" operating model, intended to drive expense efficiencies, is directly threatened by a "competitive threat for Goldman Sachs’s talent at all levels" (14A Proxy). If Goldman Sachs cannot retain top performers against pressure from alternative asset managers, the expected "capacity for future growth" may never materialize. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs’s positioning as a "leading global risk intermediary" is highly sensitive to market conditions; sudden shifts in investor confidence or interest rate volatility directly impact the creditworthiness of its counterparties and the value of its significant "long" debt and equity positions (10-K Item 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The most recent data reveals a sharp divergence between core strengths and legacy distractions. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Global Banking & Markets revenue surged 22%, driven by a 25% jump in investment banking fees (8-K). However, this was marred by a $1.68 billion loss in Platform Solutions, stemming from a $2.26 billion markdown on the Apple Card portfolio (8-K).
While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of 8.9% is robust compared to peers like JPMorgan (+2.8%) or Wells Fargo (+1.7%), Goldman Sachs’s FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin stands at -119.8% (XBRL). This negative figure reflects the capital-intensive nature of its market-making and lending activities rather than a lack of profitability, as evidenced by a healthy 27.0% net margin. Short interest remains low at 2.0% of the float, suggesting that investors are generally accepting of the current strategic pivot (Yahoo Finance).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 12.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Goldman Sachs is valued in line with the peer median of 12.3x (XBRL). At this multiple, the market is pricing in ~4.1% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This expectation appears grounded in reality, as Goldman Sachs’s current 8.9% revenue growth and 27.0% net margin provide a significant cushion.
The valuation is supported by Goldman Sachs's aggressive capital return strategy, including a 4.1% buyback yield and a planned dividend increase to $4.50 per share (8-K). However, the sensitivity is high: if growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 10.7x (CAPM analysis). Investors are essentially paying a fair price for a high-beta play on capital markets, provided Goldman Sachs successfully hits its $300 billion credit alternative asset target by 2028.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if the "OneGS 3.0" initiative fails to deliver the "expense efficiencies" promised in the fourth quarter of 2025, suggesting structural cost bloat (10-K Item 1).
- Constructive if "Management and other fees from alternatives" sustain the targeted annual double-digit growth rate, proving the pivot to Asset & Wealth Management is gaining permanent friction (10-K Item 1).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A dominant institutional "OneGS" ecosystem backed by an independent model risk management infrastructure that ensures superior price verification in volatile markets.
Bottom Line: Goldman Sachs is a streamlined Wall Street powerhouse that is finally priced for its strengths now that the consumer banking drag is being removed.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Market Conditions: Goldman Sachs’s businesses are highly sensitive to global financial markets and economic conditions, which can change suddenly. Unfavorable environments—characterized by high inflation, interest rate volatility, or lack of investor confidence—directly impact client activity levels and the creditworthiness of counterparties.
- Declining Asset Values: As a principal in market-making and investing, Goldman Sachs holds significant "long" positions in debt, equity, and private credit. Declines in these asset values directly impact earnings, particularly when hedging is ineffective or markets become illiquid.
- Liquidity and Funding: Insufficient liquidity is a critical risk, as Goldman Sachs relies on access to debt capital markets and deposits. Disruptions in credit markets or a reduction in credit ratings could increase funding costs and trigger obligations to post additional collateral.
- Operational and Cyber Risks: Goldman Sachs faces risks from system failures, human error, and cyber attacks. Goldman Sachs is a frequent target of cyber threats, and the increasing use of AI and cloud technologies introduces new vulnerabilities that could result in the theft of confidential information or business disruption.
- Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny: As a globally systemically important financial institution, Goldman Sachs is subject to pervasive regulation. Significant regulatory actions, civil or criminal liability, or failure to manage conflicts of interest can lead to fines, restrictions on business activities, and reputational damage.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Resolution Strategy: Under the "single point of entry" resolution strategy, Group Inc.’s security holders could face greater losses than in a standard bankruptcy, as losses at the subsidiary level are transferred to the holding company to keep operating entities solvent.
- Consumer-Oriented Business Risks: Despite narrowing its focus, remaining consumer offerings subject Goldman Sachs to regulatory and operational risks—such as fair lending and privacy compliance—that have not historically applied to its traditional institutional business.
- Concentration of Risk: Goldman Sachs’s market-making and underwriting activities involve concentrated credit risk to specific counterparties, industries, or geographic areas, which can lead to losses even when broader market conditions are favorable.
- One Goldman Sachs Initiative: Goldman Sachs’s strategy to increase collaboration across business lines may heighten the potential for actual or perceived conflicts of interest and improper information sharing.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- G-SIB Surcharge: Goldman Sachs is subject to an annually updated G-SIBG-SIBGlobal Systemically Important Bank — a major bank designated by regulators as critical to the global financial system, subject to stricter capital requirements surcharge based on financial data. Expansion of the balance sheet or increased reliance on short-term wholesale funding can increase this surcharge, thereby raising capital requirements.
- Capital Distribution Restrictions: Failure to comply with capital requirements or the need to resubmit capital plans to the FRB can limit Goldman Sachs’s ability to pay dividends or repurchase shares.
- 1MDB-Related Matters: Goldman Sachs has faced significant monetary penalties and reputational harm due to past misconduct, including settlements related to 1MDB, which highlight the risk of criminal or civil actions arising from employee misconduct.
- Anti-Competitive Conduct: Goldman Sachs faces ongoing legal risks related to allegations of bid-rigging or anti-competitive practices, which carry the risk of treble damages under antitrust laws.
4. Financial Impact Map
Market Volatility → Net Revenues → Declines in volatility reduce trading and arbitrage opportunities, while increased volatility can force inventory reductions and increase Value-at-Risk (VaR).
Declining Asset Values → Earnings → Substantially all investing and market-making positions are marked-to-market; declines directly impact earnings unless effectively hedged.
Credit Rating Downgrade → Liquidity/Funding Costs → A one-notch downgrade could trigger $224 million in collateral/termination payments; a two-notch downgrade could trigger $1.80 billion.
Regulatory Capital Requirements → Shareholders’ Equity/Dividends → Higher capital requirements (e.g., G-SIBG-SIBGlobal Systemically Important Bank — a major bank designated by regulators as critical to the global financial system, subject to stricter capital requirements surcharge) can limit Goldman Sachs’s ability to return capital to shareholders via repurchases or dividends.
Inflationary Pressures → Net Interest Margin/Operating Expenses → Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and interest paid on deposits, potentially reducing net interest income and preventing the achievement of efficiency ratio targets.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Jan 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Anthropic launches 10 financial AI agents as CEO warns of SaaS industry disruption
- ▸Launched 10 AI agents for financial tasks like auditing and drafting credit memos
- ▸Q1 annualized revenue grew 80x year-over-year
- ▸Financial services is Anthropic's second-largest enterprise revenue segment
- ▸40% of top 50 customers are financial institutions
- ▸Adoption confirmed by Goldman Sachs, Visa, Citi, and AIG
Goldman Sachs issues multi-currency debt, secures Golar LNG advisory and SpaceX IPO mandate
- ▸Issued broad range of senior and subordinated fixed-income securities
- ▸Appointed lead advisor for Golar LNG strategic alternatives review
- ▸Joined core underwriting group for upcoming SpaceX IPO
- ▸Projected 2029 revenue $67.8B, earnings $20.2B
- ▸Implied fair value $959.75 per share based on analyst forecasts
Moonshot AI Explores Hong Kong IPO at Potential $18 Billion Valuation
- ▸Moonshot AI exploring potential Hong Kong IPO at $18 billion valuation
- ▸Company in discussions with Goldman Sachs and CICC regarding listing
- ▸Seeking to raise $1 billion in new private funding round
- ▸Backed by Alibaba, Tencent, and 5Y Capital
- ▸K2.5 AI model upgrade released in January supports text, image, and video
Goldman Sachs warns of rising market correction risks amid geopolitical uncertainty
- ▸S&P 500 down nearly 7% from recent highs
- ▸Nasdaq index enters formal correction territory, down 10% from peak
- ▸Goldman Sachs strategist views potential market correction as buying opportunity
- ▸Geopolitical conflict in Middle East cited as potential bear market risk
- ▸Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) noted as potential defensive play
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon Warns of Private Credit Risks, Launches Shorting Tools
- ▸CEO Solomon warns of systemic risks in $1.8T private credit market
- ▸Bank launching tools for hedge funds to short private credit assets
- ▸Goldman actively issuing senior callable medium-term notes in USD and EUR
- ▸Firm citing weaker underwriting standards and liquidity constraints in non-bank lending
- ▸Strategy aims to balance fee-based income with controlled balance-sheet usage
Candex extends Series C funding to $40M+ with strategic investment from HSBC
- ▸Series C funding extended to over $40 million
- ▸Total company funding exceeds $120 million
- ▸HSBC joins existing investor base including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan
- ▸Candex provides automated vendor management and tail-spend solutions
- ▸HSBC serves as both a strategic investor and a platform customer
Goldman Sachs targets $300B private credit portfolio by 2029 via strategic expansion
- ▸Targeting $300B private credit portfolio by 2029
- ▸Acquired venture capital platform Industry Ventures in January 2026
- ▸Projecting high-single-digit annual revenue growth for private banking and lending
- ▸Partnered with T. Rowe Price for $1B retirement and wealth product development
- ▸Expanding private credit operations across Europe, U.K., and Asia
Goldman Sachs slashes Asian GDP forecasts as $15B capital flight hits regional equities
- ▸Foreign investors liquidated $15B in emerging Asian market positions
- ▸MSCI All Country Asia Pacific ex Japan index tumbled 2.1%
- ▸Goldman slashed 2026 MXAPJ earnings estimates by 2%
- ▸Regional GDP forecasts cut by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points
- ▸Brent Crude price target raised to $110 for March
Goldman warns oil-driven GDP drag poses downside risk to 2026 S&P 500 EPS
- ▸1% change in real US GDP correlates to 3-4% change in S&P 500 EPS
- ▸Prolonged energy disruption threatens 12% 2026 EPS growth forecast
- ▸AI investment cycle identified as primary structural driver for market valuations
- ▸S&P 500 declined 2% amid heightened geopolitical volatility
- ▸AI capital expenditures from hyperscalers driving revenue for broader S&P 500 constituents