HOLX

Healthcare

Hologic

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$738.4M	$1.7B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$2.8B	$3.1B	$3.2B	$3.4B	$3.8B	$5.6B	$4.9B	$4.0B	$4.0B	$4.1B	+1.7%
Gross Profit	$470.9M	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$994.4M	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.2B	$2.2B	$3.8B	$3.0B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.1B	-4.9%
Gross Margin	63.8%	68.0%	71.3%	71.0%	70.9%	49.7%	46.6%	49.2%	53.0%	55.2%	53.0%	52.7%	34.8%	59.0%	67.4%	61.6%	51.4%	55.3%	51.6%	-3.6pp
Operating Income	$147.8M	-$197.5M	-$2.0B	$69.9M	$374.4M	$113.7M	-$906.3M	$279.7M	$455.1M	$548.6M	$1.4B	-$237.9M	-$123.8M	$1.1B	$2.5B	$1.6B	$668.4M	$882.6M	$714.3M	-19.1%
Operating Margin	20.0%	-11.8%	-123.2%	4.2%	20.9%	5.7%	-36.4%	11.1%	16.8%	19.4%	44.8%	-7.4%	-3.7%	29.3%	44.0%	33.7%	16.6%	21.9%	17.4%	-4.5pp
Net Income	$94.6M	-$385.6M	-$2.2B	-$62.8M	$157.2M	-$73.6M	-$1.2B	$17.3M	$131.6M	$330.8M	$755.5M	-$111.3M	-$203.6M	$1.1B	$1.9B	$1.3B	$456.0M	$789.5M	$565.7M	-28.3%
Net Margin	12.8%	-23.0%	-132.9%	-3.7%	8.8%	-3.7%	-47.1%	0.7%	4.9%	11.7%	24.7%	-3.5%	-6.0%	29.5%	33.2%	26.8%	11.3%	19.6%	13.8%	-5.8pp
Free Cash Flow	$131.1M	$308.1M	$515.0M	$428.7M	$428.2M	$337.1M	$444.9M	$464.1M	$738.0M	$739.9M	-$49.5M	$674.5M	$592.5M	$798.3M	$2.2B	$2.1B	$959.4M	$1.2B	$998.3M	-17.7%
FCF Margin	17.8%	18.4%	31.5%	25.5%	23.9%	16.8%	17.8%	18.3%	27.3%	26.1%	-1.6%	21.0%	17.6%	21.1%	39.7%	42.3%	23.8%	30.1%	24.3%	-5.7pp
EPS (Diluted)	$0.86	$-1.57	$-8.48	$-0.24	$0.59	$-0.28	$-4.36	$0.06	$0.45	$1.16	$2.64	$-0.40	$-0.76	$4.21	$7.21	$5.13	$1.83	$3.32	$2.49	-25.0%

Total Debt$2.5B

Cash & Equiv.$2.0B

Net Debt$548.4M

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Hologic is a dominant force in women’s health technology that has successfully traded high growth for exceptional cash-flow efficiency. While its core molecular diagnostics business is navigating a post-pandemic slump and legacy product declines, Hologic’s massive installed base of proprietary "Panther" systems ensures a steady stream of recurring revenue. Currently, the entire investment thesis is anchored by a definitive agreement to be acquired by Blackstone and TPG, framing the stock as a merger-arbitrage play backed by industry-leading margins.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Hologic’s "razor-and-blade" strategy—placing proprietary instrumentation to drive recurring assay sales—is threatened by high customer concentration. In fiscal 2025, just two customers accounted for 23.6% of Diagnostics revenue (Risks), meaning a single contract loss could derail the segment’s profitability. This vulnerability is compounded by supply chain fragility; the "stop-ship" order on Brevera needles implemented in November 2025 directly undermines the revenue potential of Hologic’s Breast Health capital equipment (10-Q). Furthermore, the $2.5 billion in debt limits the "tremendous flexibility" management claims to have for future organic investments if the pending merger faces delays (Competitive Position).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

Hologic is the most efficient operator in its peer group but also the slowest grower. It leads all tracked peers with a 15.7% operating margin and a staggering 32.3% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (XBRL), yet its 1.7% trailing revenue growth ranks last among competitors like Quest Diagnostics (+11.8%) and LabCorp (+7.2%). This divergence is structural: Hologic is excellent at extracting cash from its existing customers, but it is struggling to find new volume.

Molecular diagnostics revenue fell 3.5% in the most recent quarter as COVID-19 testing and legacy sexually transmitted infection (STI) assays declined (8-K). Hologic’s 2.5% quarterly revenue growth was largely propped up by the acquisition of Gynesonics and a 69% surge in the small Skeletal Health segment, rather than a rebound in its core diagnostic business. Additionally, external pressures are mounting; a $15.3 million tariff expense recently squeezed gross margins, while trade tensions in China are actively depressing Asia-Pacific sales volumes (10-Q).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 15.6x forward earnings, Hologic trades at an 11% premium to the peer median of 14.0x. The market is pricing in approximately 2.1% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This valuation is justified by Hologic’s superior cash conversion—its 32.3% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin dwarfs Becton Dickinson’s 3.9%—but it leaves little room for operational errors.

If growth slows even slightly to 2.0%, the justified multiple sits at 15.4x, suggesting the stock is currently at fair value. The primary risk that could force investors to pay less is the $540 million termination fee; any signal that regulatory approvals are stalling could cause the 15.6x multiple to compress toward the peer median as the merger premium evaporates.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the "stop-ship" on Brevera needles extends into the next fiscal quarter, signaling deeper manufacturing or regulatory hurdles.
Constructive if molecular diagnostics revenue returns to growth, specifically through the adoption of newer Panther Fusion assays to offset the decline in legacy STI tests.
Cautious if the percentage of revenue from the Asia-Pacific region continues to slide, indicating that Chinese trade policies are permanently impairing Hologic's international reach.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: High-margin recurring revenue driven by a massive installed base of proprietary Panther diagnostic systems and specialized AI-driven breast health imaging.

Bottom Line: Hologic is a premium-priced cash flow leader whose near-term upside is capped by a pending buyout and sluggish organic growth in its core segments.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Merger Uncertainty: The acquisition by Blackstone and TPG is subject to regulatory approvals and stockholder consent; failure to close by July 21, 2026, could trigger a termination fee of up to $540 million, severely impacting financial results.
Supply Chain Constraints: Hologic’s ability to manufacture Breast Health capital equipment (e.g., 3D Dimensions, Trident, Affirm, and Brevera systems) is constrained by the availability of raw materials and semiconductor chips, threatening revenue realization.
Customer Concentration: The Diagnostics segment relies on a limited number of customers; in fiscal 2025, two customers accounted for 13.6% and 10.8% of segment revenue, respectively, creating significant exposure to contract cancellations or volume reductions.
Regulatory Compliance: Hologic operates in a highly regulated environment where failure to maintain FDA or foreign regulatory clearances—or the withdrawal of existing approvals—could force Hologic to cease marketing products and incur significant fines.
Indebtedness: As of September 27, 2025, Hologic held approximately $2.5 billion in aggregate principal indebtedness, which limits operational flexibility and requires a substantial portion of cash flow to be dedicated to interest and principal payments.

2. Company-Specific Risks

CVR Contingency: The $3.00 per share contingent value right (CVR) is tied to specific global revenue metrics for the Breast Health business in fiscal years 2026 and 2027; there is no assurance these thresholds will be met, rendering the final consideration uncertain for stockholders.
Diagnostic Assay Demand: The decline in COVID-19 testing demand threatens the utilization of Panther and Panther Fusion instruments, potentially impacting results of operations if not offset by other molecular testing volumes.
Clinical Guideline Shifts: Changes in medical screening guidelines, such as the 2015 American Cancer Society recommendation to delay annual mammograms, have historically resulted in decreased use of Hologic’s mammography systems.
Sole-Source Dependencies: Hologic relies on direct competitors for critical components, such as F. Hoffmann-LaRoche Ltd for diagnostic assay raw materials and GE Healthcare for ThinPrep membranes, creating risks of supply disruption or unfavorable pricing.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Anti-Kickback and False Claims: Hologic is subject to federal and state anti-kickback statutes and the Physician Payment Sunshine Act, which require strict reporting of financial relationships with physicians; noncompliance can lead to substantial civil and criminal penalties.
International Trade and Tariffs: Hologic recorded $9.5 million in tariff expenses in fiscal 2025 and estimates ongoing quarterly impacts of $10 million to $14 million if current tariff levels are maintained.
Environmental Regulations: Compliance with EU directives such as REACH, RoHS, and WEEE requires product redesigns and testing, which can increase costs and lead times for product introductions.
Data Privacy: Evolving global standards, including HIPAA and the EU’s GDPR, impose significant costs for security measures and potential liabilities for data breaches or failure to comply with electronic health data transmission standards.

4. Financial Impact Map

Merger Termination Fee → Results of Operations / Financial Condition → $540 million (or $225 million during go-shop period) payable if the Merger Agreement is terminated under certain circumstances. Supply Chain Constraints → Revenues / Results of Operations → Inability to procure semiconductor chips or raw materials for Breast Health capital equipment could materially decrease revenues. Customer Concentration → Diagnostics Segment Revenue → Loss of two key customers (who represented 23.6% of segment revenue in fiscal 2025) would significantly reduce segment profitability. Indebtedness → Cash Flow / Liquidity → Approximately $1.2 billion of debt is subject to floating interest rates, increasing vulnerability to higher interest payments and reducing cash available for capital expenditures. Tariff Expenses → Operating Results → Estimated quarterly impact of $10 million to $14 million in direct tariff costs, excluding potential vendor price increases.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-Q	Jan 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-K	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Jan 2025	—