HPQ
TechnologyHP Inc.
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $104.3B | $118.4B | $114.6B | $126.0B | $127.2B | $120.4B | $112.3B | $111.5B | $103.4B | $48.2B | $52.1B | $58.5B | $58.8B | $56.6B | $63.5B | $63.0B | $53.7B | $53.6B | $55.3B | +3.2% |
| Gross Profit | $40.9B | $49.0B | $58.0B | $61.0B | $62.1B | $60.9B | $56.7B | $66.0B | $61.8B | $9.0B | $9.6B | $10.7B | $11.2B | $10.4B | $13.4B | $12.3B | $11.5B | $11.8B | $11.4B | -3.6% |
| Gross Margin | 39.2% | 41.4% | 50.7% | 48.4% | 48.8% | 50.6% | 50.5% | 59.2% | 59.8% | 18.7% | 18.4% | 18.2% | 19.0% | 18.4% | 21.1% | 19.5% | 21.4% | 22.1% | 20.6% | -1.5pp |
| Operating Income | $8.7B | $10.5B | $10.1B | $11.5B | $9.7B | -$11.1B | $7.1B | $7.2B | $5.5B | $3.5B | $3.5B | $4.1B | $3.9B | $3.5B | $5.3B | $4.7B | $3.5B | $3.8B | $3.2B | -16.9% |
| Operating Margin | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | -9.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | -1.4pp |
| Net Income | $7.3B | $8.3B | $7.7B | $8.8B | $7.1B | -$12.7B | $5.1B | $5.0B | $4.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $5.3B | $3.2B | $2.8B | $6.5B | $3.2B | $3.3B | $2.8B | $2.5B | -8.9% |
| Net Margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | -10.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | -0.6pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.6B | $11.6B | $9.7B | $7.8B | $8.1B | — | — | $8.5B | $2.9B | $2.8B | $3.3B | $4.0B | $4.0B | $3.7B | $5.8B | $3.7B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $2.8B | -11.3% |
| FCF Margin | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | — | — | 7.6% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | -0.8pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.68 | $3.25 | $3.14 | $3.69 | $3.32 | $-6.41 | $2.62 | $2.62 | $2.48 | $1.43 | $1.48 | $3.26 | $2.07 | $2.00 | $5.33 | $3.05 | $3.26 | $2.81 | $2.65 | -5.7% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
HP Inc. is currently a tale of two speeds: a Personal Systems segment seeing double-digit volume growth from a Windows refresh cycle and a Printing segment in a slow, secular retreat. HP Inc. is betting its future on "layered resiliency" in security and a new category of AI PCs to transform from a hardware seller into a software-integrated service provider. However, this transformation is being funded by a printing business where unit sales are falling and customers are migrating toward cheaper, third-party ink alternatives.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
HP Inc.’s "Portfolio Breadth" is increasingly threatened by the "Secular Printing Decline" because the high-margin supplies revenue that anchors the Printing segment—which saw a 1.1% revenue decline and a 6.5% drop in units—is no longer a guaranteed stabilizer for the lower-margin Personal Systems business (10-Q). Furthermore, HP Inc.’s "Innovation and R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies" advantage in AI is threatened by "Supply Chain Dependency." While HP Inc. is integrating AI across its "Pro" and "Elite" lines, its ability to deliver these products depends entirely on third-party processors from Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA; any shortage in these components directly leads to lost sales and inventory obsolescence (10-K Item 1, 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line health. In the most recent quarter, revenue grew 6.9% to $14.4 billion, yet GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow net earnings actually fell 1.7% (8-K). This divergence is explained by a 12.1% spike in PC unit volume—driven by customers rushing to buy ahead of anticipated memory cost increases—paired with a 2.2% decline in Printing revenue (10-Q). While the Personal Systems growth (11.1%) significantly outpaces the three-year TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth of 3.2%, management warns this is likely a pull-forward of demand rather than a structural shift, noting that full-year results are expected to hit the "low end" of guidance due to "increasing memory costs" (8-K, XBRL). Market sentiment remains heavily defensive, evidenced by a high short interest of 14.1% of the float (Yahoo Finance).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 6.3x forward earnings, HP Inc. trades at a 42% discount to the peer median of 10.8x, making it the cheapest stock in its primary peer group (XBRL). According to CAPM analysis, this price implies the market expects long-term growth of only 0.5%. This "attractively valued" status is justified by HP Inc.'s massive 6.3% dividend yield and 4.2% buyback yield, which lead the peer group in total shareholder returns. However, the discount persists because HP Inc.’s 5.4% operating margin and 2.8% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin lag significantly behind specialized peers like NetApp (22.7% operating margin). For this valuation to be "right," HP Inc. must prove that its AI PC momentum is not just a temporary Windows-refresh blip but a sustainable driver of margin expansion that can replace the decaying print business.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if Printing segment margins compress further due to a faster-than-expected shift to "big tank" printers or if memory costs continue to rise, as CFO Karen Parkhill warned these factors are already pushing HP Inc. toward the low end of its annual outlook.
- Constructive if the "Technology and Innovation Organization" successfully converts hardware buyers into software subscribers, evidenced by an expansion in net margins beyond the current 4.1% toward the 5.0% level seen at Dell (XBRL).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A massive global distribution network combined with proprietary, hardware-enforced security features that create high switching costs for enterprise PC fleets. Bottom Line: HP Inc. is a high-yield value play where the generous dividend is currently protected by a PC refresh cycle, but long-term viability depends on surviving the collapse of the traditional printing model.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Secular Printing Decline: HP Inc. faces decreased demand for printing products due to increased digitization and hybrid work, alongside a shift in customer preference from traditional disposable ink cartridge printers to refillable big tank printers, which may have lower overall device lifetime profitability.
- Supply Chain Dependency: HP Inc. is heavily dependent on third-party suppliers for key components; shortages or manufacturing disruptions—particularly for integrated circuits, panels, and processors from Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA—can lead to lost sales, increased freight costs, and inventory obsolescence.
- AI Proliferation and Investment: HP Inc. is investing significant resources into AI-enabled products; failure to recoup these investments, or the cannibalization of demand for traditional non-AI products, could result in lower net revenues and profit margins.
- Competitive Pricing Pressures: HP Inc. operates in an intensely competitive industry where it must frequently lower prices to maintain market share, which exerts downward pressure on gross margins and profitability.
- Distribution and Inventory Management: HP Inc.’s reliance on a multi-tiered, indirect distribution network makes forecasting demand difficult; elevated channel inventory can lead to adverse impacts on pricing and revenue recognition.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Legacy Branding Risks: Through a joint brand holding structure with Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP Inc. shares legacy branding, meaning conduct or events adversely affecting the reputation of Hewlett Packard Enterprise could also harm the reputation of HP Inc.
- Copyright Levies: In certain European countries, HP Inc. faces ongoing proceedings and potential levies on IT equipment like PCs and printers, the ultimate impact of which remains uncertain.
- Separation Agreement Liabilities: HP Inc. is subject to cross-indemnities with Hewlett Packard Enterprise; if the latter is unable to satisfy its obligations under the separation and distribution agreement, HP Inc. could incur operational losses.
- Geographic Concentration: Manufacturing and supply chain operations remain geographically concentrated, particularly in Asia, exposing HP Inc. to geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- AI Governance: Emerging laws and regulations regarding AI in the U.S. and European Union may require HP Inc. to develop additional governance programs, entailing significant costs or limiting the ability to incorporate certain AI capabilities.
- Privacy and Data Protection: HP Inc. is subject to evolving global privacy laws, including the GDPR, which increase compliance risk and costs; breaches of security measures could result in government enforcement actions, civil monetary penalties, or fines.
- Patent Litigation: HP Inc. faces an increasing trend of patent assertion entities targeting standardized technologies like Wi-Fi and video, which can lead to exorbitant licensing demands or injunctions against selling certain products.
- Environmental and Circularity Laws: HP Inc. faces increasing regulatory requirements regarding product repairability, reuse, recyclability, and take-back legislation, which can increase compliance burdens and costs.
4. Financial Impact Map
- Secular Printing Decline → Net Revenue and Gross Margin → Shift to lower-profitability big tank printers and reduced demand for high-margin ink cartridges.
- Supply Chain Dependency → Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and Inventory → Increased freight costs, inventory provisions, and potential write-offs of non-performing inventory.
- AI Proliferation and Investment → Operating Expenses and Net Revenue → Significant R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies resource allocation and potential cannibalization of traditional product sales.
- Competitive Pricing Pressures → Gross Margin → Lower sales prices resulting from discounts and promotional programs to maintain market share.
- Distribution and Inventory Management → Working Capital and Cash Flow → Advance payments to suppliers and non-cancelable commitments to secure components, impacting liquidity.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 |
| 14A | Feb 2026 | — |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-K | Dec 2025 | Oct 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
HPQ Q1 FY2026 revenue and EPS beat estimates despite 31% annual share decline
- ▸Q1 FY2026 revenue and EPS exceeded analyst expectations
- ▸Shares down 31% over past 12 months
- ▸Stock trading near 52-week low of $17.56
- ▸Reddit sentiment 70% bearish with scores in 22-28 range
- ▸AI PC momentum noted as growth driver
HP targets $1 billion in AI-enabled cost savings by fiscal 2028
- ▸Targeting $1.0 billion in AI-enabled cost savings by fiscal 2028
- ▸Focusing on AI PC rollout and secure printing portfolio
- ▸Managing higher memory costs and softer demand through disciplined pricing
- ▸Projecting $56.8 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028
- ▸Analysts previously estimated $57.6 billion revenue and $3.8 billion earnings by 2028
HPQ CFO outlines AI-driven cost savings and search for new CEO
- ▸Q1 2026 revenue +7% YoY
- ▸AI PCs accounted for 35% of total shipments
- ▸Targeting $1B in AI-enabled cost savings by FY2028
- ▸$300M in cost savings projected for FY2026
- ▸Company actively searching for new CEO
HPQ price targets cut by BofA, Evercore, Morgan Stanley amid margin and demand concerns
- ▸BofA cut HPQ price target from $18 to $16, maintains Underperform
- ▸Evercore ISI lowered price target from $22 to $20, maintains In Line
- ▸Morgan Stanley reduced price target from $18 to $16, maintains Underweight
- ▸HPQ slightly reduced fiscal Q1 EPS and free cash flow guidance
- ▸Analysts cite memory cost pressures and slower PC unit growth as primary headwinds
HPQ Q1 revenue $14.4B +6.9% YoY, EPS $0.81 beats estimates
- ▸Q1 revenue $14.4 billion, up 6.9% year over year
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.81, surpassing analyst expectations
- ▸Returned $325 million to shareholders via share repurchases
- ▸Quarterly dividend payment of $0.30 per share
- ▸Higher memory costs and cautious outlook weigh on investor sentiment