INTC

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Intel

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XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$38.3B	$37.6B	$35.1B	$43.6B	$54.0B	$53.3B	$52.7B	$55.9B	$55.4B	$59.4B	$62.8B	$70.8B	$72.0B	$77.9B	$79.0B	$63.1B	$54.2B	$53.1B	$52.9B	-0.5%
Gross Profit	$19.9B	$20.8B	$19.6B	$28.5B	$33.8B	$33.2B	$31.5B	$35.6B	$34.7B	$36.2B	$39.1B	$43.7B	$42.1B	$43.6B	$43.8B	$26.9B	$21.7B	$17.3B	$18.4B	+5.9%
Gross Margin	51.9%	55.5%	55.7%	65.3%	62.5%	62.1%	59.8%	63.7%	62.6%	60.9%	62.3%	61.7%	58.6%	56.0%	55.4%	42.6%	40.0%	32.7%	34.8%	+2.1pp
Operating Income	$8.2B	$9.0B	$5.7B	$15.6B	$17.5B	$14.6B	$12.3B	$15.3B	$14.0B	$12.9B	$17.9B	$23.3B	$22.0B	$23.7B	$19.5B	$2.3B	$93.0M	-$11.7B	-$2.2B	+81.0%
Operating Margin	21.4%	23.8%	16.3%	35.7%	32.4%	27.4%	23.3%	27.5%	25.3%	21.7%	28.6%	32.9%	30.6%	30.4%	24.6%	3.7%	0.2%	-22.0%	-4.2%	+17.8pp
Net Income	$7.0B	$5.3B	$4.4B	$11.5B	$12.9B	$11.0B	$9.6B	$11.7B	$11.4B	$10.3B	$9.6B	$21.1B	$21.0B	$20.9B	$19.9B	$8.0B	$1.7B	-$18.8B	-$267.0M	+98.6%
Net Margin	18.2%	14.1%	12.4%	26.3%	24.0%	20.6%	18.3%	20.9%	20.6%	17.4%	15.3%	29.7%	29.2%	26.8%	25.1%	12.7%	3.1%	-35.3%	-0.5%	+34.8pp
Free Cash Flow	$7.6B	$5.7B	$6.7B	$11.5B	$10.2B	$7.9B	—	—	—	—	$10.3B	$14.3B	$16.9B	$21.1B	$11.3B	-$9.4B	-$14.3B	-$15.7B	-$4.9B	+68.4%
FCF Margin	19.9%	15.2%	18.9%	26.3%	18.9%	14.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%	20.1%	23.5%	27.1%	14.2%	-14.9%	-26.3%	-29.5%	-9.4%	+20.1pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.18	$0.92	$0.77	$2.01	$2.39	$2.13	$1.89	$2.31	$2.33	$2.12	$1.99	$4.48	$4.71	$4.94	$4.86	$1.94	$0.40	$-4.38	$-0.06	+98.6%

Total Debt$46.6B

Cash & Equiv.$14.3B

Net Debt$32.3B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Intel is a company in the middle of an identity split, attempting to remain a top-tier chip designer while simultaneously building a world-class manufacturing business from scratch. This transition is consuming billions in capital at a time when its core PC and data center markets are contracting, leaving Intel with the weakest margins and growth profile among its semiconductor peers.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Intel’s primary competitive advantage—its integrated device manufacturing (IDM) model—is now its greatest financial liability. While Intel cites its ability to control the design and production process as a "key differentiator" (Business), this strategy is threatened by "Foundry Strategy Uncertainty" (Risks). If Intel fails to secure a major external customer for its 14A node, it may be forced to discontinue development, leading to material impairments of its $100 billion in manufacturing assets (Risks).

Furthermore, Intel’s "market-leading position in the AI PC category" (14A Proxy) is structurally vulnerable to geopolitical shifts. With 70% of revenue generated outside the U.S. and 24% specifically from China, escalating export controls on AI and advanced computing products have already begun to reduce sales and threaten the stability of the global supply chain (Risks).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a stark disconnect between management’s AI-driven narrative and Intel's actual trajectory. While leadership highlights the "essential role of CPUs in the AI era" (8-K), revenue fell 4% in the most recent quarter, and the Client Computing Group—Intel's largest segment—saw a 7% decline (8-K). This downward trend is expected to accelerate, with Q1 2026 revenue guided as low as $11.7 billion, down from the $13.7 billion reported in Q4 2025 (8-K).

Intel is currently the only major semiconductor peer with negative revenue growth (-0.5% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter) and negative free cash flow (-$4.95B) (XBRL). While management notes that gross margins expanded slightly to 34.8% in FY2025, Intel remains in the 6th position out of 6 peers for every major profitability metric, trailing leaders like Broadcom by nearly 40 percentage points in gross margin (Peer Benchmarking). Short interest stands at 117.8 million shares, or 2.4% of the float, suggesting a segment of the market remains skeptical of the turnaround (Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 47.3x forward earnings, Intel trades at an 88% premium to the peer median of 25.1x (Peer Benchmarking). According to (CAPM analysis), the market is pricing in a 10.0% long-term growth rate. This valuation appears difficult to justify given that Intel is currently experiencing revenue contraction and guided for a GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow net loss of $(0.21) per share in the coming quarter (8-K).

The sensitivity analysis suggests significant downside if Intel cannot meet these growth expectations. If long-term growth slows to a base rate of 5.0%, the justified multiple would fall to 14.2x—roughly 70% below current levels (CAPM analysis). For the current price to be "right," Intel must not only stop its revenue decline but pivot to consistent double-digit growth, a feat it has yet to demonstrate as it navigates "industry-wide supply shortages" and "execution problems" (8-K, 14A Proxy).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if Intel announces a major, multi-year manufacturing contract with a "hyperscaler" or rival chip designer, providing the external validation needed to protect its $100 billion in property and equipment (Risks).
Cautious if Q1 2026 revenue falls below the $11.7 billion guidance floor, suggesting that the "lowest level" of supply is a structural decline rather than a temporary bottleneck (8-K).
Cautious if the "operational separation" between the product and foundry businesses leads to further non-cash impairment charges beyond the $950 million recorded in 2025 (Risks).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A massive, domestic manufacturing footprint and a legacy x86 franchise that maintains significant customer mindshare in the PC and data center markets. Bottom Line: Intel is a distressed incumbent asking for a premium valuation while its fundamentals remain the weakest in the semiconductor sector.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Intense Competitive Environment: Intel faces intensified competition from companies with greater financial resources, including those utilizing the ARM architecture and hyperscalers developing in-house designs. Failure to compete effectively threatens revenue and gross margin, and may necessitate the accelerated write-down of asset values.
Foundry Strategy Uncertainty: Establishing Intel Foundry as a major provider is highly risky; Intel has been unsuccessful to date in attracting significant external customers. If Intel cannot secure a customer for its Intel 14A node, it may discontinue next-generation node development, leading to material impairments of its $100 billion in net property, plant, and equipment.
Capital Investment Risks: Intel’s R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies and manufacturing investments are inherently risky and long-term. In 2025 and 2024, Intel recorded $950 million and $3.3 billion, respectively, in charges related to non-cash impairments and accelerated depreciation for manufacturing assets with reduced operational use.
Geopolitical and Trade Restrictions: With 70% of revenue generated outside the U.S. and 24% from China, Intel is vulnerable to trade policies and export controls. Escalating U.S. export controls on AI and advanced computing products have already led to sales reductions and increased requirements for specific government authorizations.
Supply Chain Concentration: Intel relies on a limited number of suppliers for critical tools and manufacturing, such as ASML for EUV lithography tools and TSMC for specific compute die. Disruptions in these relationships or in geographically concentrated regions like Taiwan could prevent Intel from meeting customer demand.

2. Company-Specific Risks

U.S. Government Equity Stake: The U.S. government’s acquisition of equity interests in Intel dilutes existing stockholders and may limit Intel’s ability to pursue strategic transactions or secure future government grants.
Product Instability Issues: During 2024, instability issues with Intel Core 13th and 14th Gen desktop processors required corrective actions, which adversely impacted sales volume and may result in future warranty costs.
Alternative Financing Penalties: Intel’s reliance on joint investment arrangements, such as the Ireland SCIP, carries penalty risks; in the fourth quarter of 2024, Intel recognized a $755 million charge related to penalties for construction delays.
AI Accelerator Inventory Charges: Intel’s unsuccessful attempt to compete in the accelerator market with Gaudi AI accelerators resulted in inventory-related charges of $375 million in 2025 and $922 million in 2024.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Intellectual Property Litigation: Intel is subject to costly patent litigation from non-practicing entities, such as the VLSI and R2 litigation, which have resulted in significant adverse judgments and settlements.
Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: As Intel collects sensitive customer data for its foundry business, it faces risks of cybersecurity incidents that could lead to significant costs for rebuilding systems, defending against litigation, or paying regulatory fines.
Environmental Regulations: Semiconductor manufacturing requires chemicals subject to evolving environmental laws, such as restrictions on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Compliance or the inability to use critical materials could increase manufacturing costs or force the suspension of production processes.

4. Financial Impact Map

Intense Competitive Environment → Gross Margin → Reduced pricing power and potential for asset write-downs.
Foundry Strategy Uncertainty → Property, Plant and Equipment → Potential material impairments of over $100 billion in net assets.
Capital Investment Risks → Operating Income → High fixed cost structure makes operating income disproportionately sensitive to demand fluctuations and underutilized capacity.
Geopolitical and Trade Restrictions → Net Revenue → 70% of total revenue is exposed to international trade policies and export controls.
Supply Chain Concentration → Cost of Sales → Potential for increased costs or production delays due to reliance on single-source suppliers like ASML or TSMC.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis