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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $3.3B | $4.0B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.5B | $5.9B | $6.3B | $6.5B | +3.7% |
| Gross Profit | $706.9M | $642.9M | $742.3M | $863.2M | $963.7M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.3B | $3.8B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.5B | +4.5% |
| Gross Margin | 55.3% | 56.4% | 57.6% | 58.8% | 59.6% | 60.4% | 61.1% | 61.2% | 61.3% | 60.1% | 63.1% | 63.5% | 67.2% | 69.5% | 69.7% | 68.3% | 68.3% | 68.8% | +0.5pp |
| Operating Income | $164.4M | $134.5M | $149.3M | $214.1M | $245.7M | $275.5M | $286.2M | $288.0M | $305.1M | -$6.3M | $259.7M | $370.1M | $490.1M | $915.8M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.0B | -11.3% |
| Operating Margin | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 12.5% | -0.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 19.3% | 20.1% | 20.9% | 18.4% | 15.8% | -2.7pp |
| Net Income | $103.9M | $83.0M | $96.3M | $136.9M | $165.9M | $182.8M | $183.8M | $175.6M | $193.6M | $3.3M | $122.5M | $233.3M | $266.7M | $793.6M | $807.8M | $882.5M | $1.3B | $729.2M | -41.8% |
| Net Margin | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 20.0% | 11.2% | -8.8pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.05 | $0.85 | $0.96 | $1.39 | $1.73 | $1.93 | $2.03 | $2.06 | $2.31 | $0.04 | $1.33 | $2.56 | $2.96 | $9.21 | $9.96 | $11.08 | $16.00 | $9.65 | -39.7% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Gartner is transforming from a high-growth advisory firm into a capital-allocation machine. While top-line revenue growth has cooled to 3.7%, Gartner is leveraging its massive 69% gross margins to fund a 13.6% buyback yield, effectively engineering earnings growth even as its Consulting and Digital Markets units face contraction.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Gartner’s "Intellectual Property Moat" is directly threatened by technological disruption because large language models can synthesize information that competes with Gartner’s proprietary insights, potentially diminishing the value of its expert network (10-K Item 1). Furthermore, the stability provided by "High Switching Costs"—where 77% of subscription contracts are multi-year—is undermined by Gartner's $1.0 billion in government contract exposure (10-K Item 1). These government agreements often include "termination for convenience" clauses, making a large portion of Gartner's "locked-in" revenue vulnerable to sudden budget cuts, as evidenced by the $58 million decline in U.S. federal revenue in 2025 (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Gartner’s financial profile reveals a company with elite pricing power but inefficient operations. While it boasts the highest gross margin in its peer group at 69.0%, its operating margin of 15.0% ranks only fourth out of six peers (XBRL). This suggests that the cost of maintaining 2,400 experts and a global sales force is eating the vast majority of its gross profits.
The most recent quarterly results show a sharp divergence from historical trends: while the flagship Insights segment grew 3%, the Consulting business collapsed by 13% (8-K). This weakness, combined with a $150 million goodwill impairment in the Digital Markets unit, suggests that Gartner’s non-subscription businesses are struggling to remain relevant as clients shift spending priorities. Sentiment remains cautious, with short interest sitting at a high 11.2% of the float (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 11.0x forward earnings, Gartner trades at a significant 40% discount to the peer median of 18.3x (Peer Benchmarking). According to the CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 1.4%. This valuation appears attractively valued because Gartner’s aggressive share retirement—reducing its share count by 8% in 2025 alone—provides a mechanical lift to earnings per share that far exceeds the market's low expectations.
However, the discount is partially justified by Gartner's $3.5 billion debt load and the lack of a dividend, which makes it less attractive than peers like Broadridge (BR) or Cognizant (CTSH) for income-focused investors. For the current price to be "wrong," Gartner would need to see its renewal rates fall significantly below the current 85% level, or fail to stabilize the double-digit declines in its Consulting arm.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the "AskGartner" AI platform shows measurable success in stabilizing the Digital Markets unit, which recently required a $150 million write-down.
- Cautious if the Insights renewal rate drops below 80%, signaling that the core subscription model is losing its "must-have" status among executive decision-makers.
- Cautious if Gartner fails to maintain its investment-grade status following its recent $3.5 billion bond issuance, which could restrict its ability to continue the $2.0 billion annual buyback pace.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A high-margin subscription engine protected by multi-year contracts and a specialized network of over 2,400 business and technology experts.
Bottom Line: Gartner is a defensive cash-flow play whose aggressive share buybacks offer a margin of safety against the structural threat of AI-driven information disruption.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Subscription Revenue Concentration: Insights products and services generated 78% of total revenue in 2025. Failure to maintain historical renewal rates—which were 85% in 2025—or generate new sales would directly decrease total revenues.
- Asset Impairment: Goodwill and intangible assets comprise 38% of total assets as of December 31, 2025. Future impairment charges, such as the $150.0 million loss recognized in the Digital Markets reporting unit during 2025, would negatively affect financial results.
- Government Contract Exposure: Approximately $1.0 billion of outstanding revenue contracts are tied to government entities. These are subject to "termination for convenience" clauses and are sensitive to discretionary spending cuts, such as the $58 million year-over-year decline in U.S. federal government revenue observed in 2025.
- Technological Disruption and AI: The rapid evolution of AI and large language models threatens to reduce traffic to Gartner websites and diminish demand for proprietary insights. Ineffective deployment of internal AI tools, such as the "AskGartner" platform launched in August 2025, could lead to reputational damage, liability, or competitive disadvantage.
- Debt Obligations: Gartner carries $3.5 billion in total Senior Notes (due 2028–2035). Debt service requirements and restrictive covenants in the 2024 Credit Agreement limit financial flexibility and the ability to fund future growth or respond to competitive pressures.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Conference Execution: The profitability of conferences is subject to external factors like communicable diseases, for which 2025 insurance coverage explicitly excludes cancellation claims.
- Consulting Revenue Predictability: The Consulting segment, which accounted for 9% of 2025 revenue, relies on non-recurring, project-based engagements that are difficult to predict and replace.
- Real Estate Strategy: Gartner utilizes a global hoteling model and leases all operational properties; failure to secure quality subtenants for excess space or delays in new office readiness could result in material charges or loss of productivity.
- Brand Independence: The Gartner brand and its perceived independence are critical to attracting talent and clients; failure to protect this reputation or excessive spending on marketing to maintain it could adversely impact operating results.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- AI Regulation: The EU AI Act, which entered into force on August 1, 2024, imposes new compliance costs and potential requirements to change business practices for AI systems impacting EU individuals.
- Global Tax Reform: OECD Pillar Two proposals, including a 15% global corporate minimum tax, could increase tax obligations in jurisdictions where Gartner operates, potentially raising the effective tax rate.
- Data Privacy Compliance: Gartner must navigate a fragmented landscape of global regulations, including GDPR, CCPA/CPRA, LGPD, and Chinese data protection laws, with non-compliance risking fines and reputational harm.
- Restrictive Covenants: Recent U.S. regulatory scrutiny regarding the enforceability of employee non-compete agreements may reduce the effectiveness of these contracts in preventing former employees from competing against Gartner.
4. Financial Impact Map
Subscription Renewal Risk → Total Revenues → 78% of 2025 revenue derived from subscription-based insights. Goodwill/Intangible Impairment → Total Assets → 38% of total assets at December 31, 2025, consist of goodwill and intangible assets. Government Spending Cuts → Total Revenues → $1.0 billion in outstanding revenue contracts at year-end 2025; $58 million decline in U.S. federal revenue in 2025. Debt Service/Covenants → Cash and Cash Equivalents / Interest Expense → $3.5 billion in Senior Notes outstanding; covenants limit financial flexibility. Consulting Engagement Volatility → Consulting Segment Revenue → 9% of total revenues in 2025; project-based and non-recurring nature.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Gartner Q1 Profit Beats Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance and Expands Share Buyback
- ▸Q1 earnings exceeded analyst profit expectations
- ▸Full-year profit guidance increased following strong quarterly performance
- ▸Share repurchase authorization expanded to support capital return
- ▸Contract value growth accelerated during the first quarter
- ▸Year-to-date share price down 36.93% despite recent quarterly beat
Gartner Faces Securities Fraud Class Action Over Alleged Misstatements Regarding Contract Value Growth
- ▸Securities fraud class action filed alleging misstatements on contract value growth
- ▸1-year total shareholder return 62.09%; 90-day return 37.49%
- ▸Current share price $159.14 vs. estimated fair value of $190.46
- ▸Current P/E ratio 15.4x compared to 14x peer average
- ▸Concerns cited regarding generative AI impact on research demand and corporate cost-cutting
Gartner FY25 Revenue $6.5B, Contract Value Growth Slows to 1% Amid Transformation
- ▸FY25 revenue $6.5B, EBITDA margins 24.8%, free cash flow $1.2B
- ▸Contract value grew 1% overall, 4% excluding U.S. federal government
- ▸Magic Quadrant creation time reduced by 75% via AI integration
- ▸AskGartner users show substantially higher renewal rates than non-users
- ▸Management cites 12-24 month lag for subscription renewal benefits to materialize
Gartner Q4 EPS beats estimates but revenue misses; federal securities investigation disclosed
- ▸Q4 2025 EPS beat analyst expectations
- ▸Q4 2025 revenue fell short of analyst estimates
- ▸New federal securities investigation disclosed alongside earnings
- ▸Share price declined 3.89% in one day following news
- ▸Stock down 65.29% over the past 12 months
Gartner Faces Shareholder Law Firm Investigation Into Earnings Guidance and Disclosure Practices
- ▸Shareholder law firm investigating Gartner's earnings guidance and share-count assumptions
- ▸Scrutiny focuses on alignment between guidance and internal revenue trends
- ▸Concerns follow 2026 outlook reset after Digital Markets divestiture
- ▸Projected 2028 revenue $7.4B with earnings of $821.8M
- ▸Legal investigation creates near-term sentiment risk alongside AI disruption concerns