KEY

Financials

KeyCorp

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2014–2025(12yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Metric	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$4.1B	$4.3B	$5.0B	$6.3B	$6.5B	$6.4B	$6.7B	$7.3B	$7.3B	$6.4B	$4.6B	$7.5B	+62.7%
Net Interest Income	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.9B	$3.8B	$3.9B	$3.9B	$4.0B	$4.1B	$4.5B	$3.9B	$3.8B	$4.6B	+23.1%
Noninterest Income	$1.8B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$3.2B	$2.7B	$2.5B	$809.0M	$2.8B	+251.3%
Noninterest Expense	$2.8B	$2.8B	$3.8B	$4.1B	$4.0B	$3.9B	$4.1B	$4.4B	$4.4B	$4.7B	$4.5B	$4.7B	-3.4%
Efficiency Ratio	67.5%	67.2%	75.3%	65.5%	61.9%	61.3%	61.5%	61.0%	60.9%	74.2%	99.4%	62.9%	+36.5pp
Net Income	$900.0M	$916.0M	$791.0M	$1.3B	$1.9B	$1.7B	$1.3B	$2.6B	$1.9B	$967.0M	-$161.0M	$1.8B	+1236.0%
Net Margin	21.9%	21.5%	15.7%	20.5%	28.9%	26.8%	20.0%	36.0%	26.4%	15.1%	-3.5%	24.3%	+27.8pp
ROA	0.96%	0.96%	0.58%	0.94%	1.34%	1.18%	0.79%	1.41%	1.01%	0.51%	-0.09%	0.99%	+1.1pp
EPS (Diluted)	$0.99	$1.05	$0.80	$1.13	$1.71	$1.62	$1.27	$2.63	$1.93	$0.88	$-0.32	$1.52	+575.0%

Total Debt$9.9B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

KeyCorp is currently a recovery story in transition, moving from a "milestone" restructuring year in 2024 toward a goal of "sound, profitable growth" (14A Proxy). While a strategic minority investment from Scotiabank has shored up capital and liquidity, the bank is still working to translate its massive +63.5% revenue growth into the high-teens returns on equity promised by management.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

KeyCorp’s focus on its KBCM capital markets platform and middle-market commercial clients is directly threatened by its credit concentration; 72% of its loan portfolio is tied to commercial and industrial loans, real estate, and leases (10-K Item 1A). This concentration means that any sector-specific deterioration would immediately force higher loan loss provisions, undermining the "quality products" advantage the bank claims (10-K Item 1). Furthermore, management’s push for organic growth is highly sensitive to interest rate volatility. If deposit costs rise faster than loan yields, the narrow net interest margin—which only recently recovered from a negative position—could easily contract again, stalling the bank's "journey to realize full earnings potential" (14A Proxy).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a sharp divergence between top-line growth and bottom-line efficiency. KeyCorp leads its peer group in revenue growth at +63.5%, yet it ranks last in nearly every measure of operational health, including Return on Assets (0.5%), ROTCEROTCEReturn on Tangible Common Equity — the primary profitability measure for bank investors; net income as a percent of tangible equity. Higher is better (5.2%), and Net Margin (14.7%) (XBRL). This gap is explained by a structural shift: the prior year was weighed down by a $915 million loss from a strategic securities sale, making the current year-over-year comparisons look exceptionally strong (8-K). However, an efficiency ratio of 73.9%—the worst among its peers—suggests that KeyCorp is spending significantly more than rivals like M&T Bank (56.7%) to generate each dollar of income. While the fourth quarter of 2025 showed progress with a shift toward higher-yielding commercial loans, the bank's low 1.4% allowance for credit loss (ACLACLAllowance for Credit Losses — the reserve a bank sets aside to cover expected future loan losses) coverage provides less of a buffer than any of its five major peers (XBRL).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 9.4x forward earnings, KeyCorp is trading in line with the peer median. The market is currently pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 0.5% (CAPM analysis). This cautious valuation is justified by the bank’s lagging profitability; despite the revenue surge, KeyCorp’s 14.7% net margin is roughly half that of peers like Fifth Third or Huntington (XBRL). For the current price to be "right," KeyCorp must prove that its 4Q25 performance—where net interest income rose to $1.22 billion—is the start of a permanent trend rather than a temporary bounce from a low base (8-K). Investors are currently being paid to wait via a 4.2% dividend yield, which is the second-highest in the group, though the bank's 0.2% buyback yield suggests management is prioritizing capital retention over aggressive share repurchases (XBRL).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if the efficiency ratio moves toward the 60% peer average, signaling that management's technology investments are finally reducing the cost of doing business.
Cautious if nonperforming loans rise within the 72% commercial loan concentration, which would likely halt the recently "accelerated pace" of share repurchases (8-K).
Constructive if the bank achieves its target of mid-to-high teens returns on tangible common equity, closing the massive gap with U.S. Bancorp’s 15.9% (XBRL).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A 15-state branch footprint that provides a stable deposit base to fund a sophisticated, national investment banking and commercial mortgage servicing platform.

Bottom Line: KeyCorp is a high-yield recovery play that has successfully repaired its balance sheet but has yet to prove it can operate with the same lean efficiency as its regional peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Credit Concentration: Approximately 72% of the loan portfolio as of December 31, 2025, consists of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases. Deterioration in these sectors could lead to increased nonperforming loans and higher provisions for loan and lease losses.
Interest Rate Risk: Net interest income is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. If interest paid on deposits and borrowings rises faster than interest earned on loans and investments, KeyCorp’s earnings will decline.
Liquidity and Funding: KeyCorp relies on customer deposits as a stable funding source. A loss of deposits or a shift in deposit mix toward higher-cost products would increase funding costs and reduce net interest margin.
Regulatory Capital Requirements: Evolving capital standards and stress testing processes may require KeyCorp to maintain higher-quality capital, potentially limiting lending capacity, share repurchases, or dividend payments.
Operational and Cybersecurity Risk: KeyCorp relies on complex information systems and third-party service providers. A cyberattack or technology failure could result in legal liability, remediation costs, and reputational harm.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Scotiabank Influence: Scotiabank holds approximately 14.9% of KeyCorp’s common shares and has the right to designate up to two directors to the Board, which may influence corporate policies or deter potential takeovers.
Goodwill Impairment: KeyCorp held $2.8 billion in goodwill as of December 31, 2025. A significant decline in the fair value of reporting units could require a write-down, reducing earnings and potentially restricting KeyBank’s ability to pay dividends.
Geographic Concentration: KeyCorp has significant loan concentrations in specific regions, including Washington, Oregon/Alaska, the Rocky Mountains, and various parts of Ohio, making it vulnerable to regional economic downturns.
AI Integration Risks: The development and use of artificial intelligence, including through third-party vendors, introduces risks related to algorithmic bias, model flaws, and potential regulatory or legal consequences if outputs are inaccurate.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Dodd-Frank Act: KeyCorp remains subject to enhanced prudential standards, including scrutiny regarding fair lending, unfair or deceptive practices, and the Community Reinvestment Act.
Privacy Laws: KeyCorp must comply with evolving consumer privacy laws, such as the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) and the New York Department of Financial Services Cybersecurity Regulations, which increase compliance costs and potential liability.
Enforcement Authority: Federal banking regulators possess substantial enforcement powers, including the ability to assess civil money penalties, issue cease and desist orders, or initiate injunctive actions for unsafe or unsound practices.
Systemic Risk Assessments: The FDIC may impose special assessments on insured depository institutions to recover losses from failed banks, which can increase KeyCorp’s noninterest expense.

4. Financial Impact Map

Credit Concentration → Provision for Loan and Lease Losses → 72% of the loan portfolio is concentrated in commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases.

Interest Rate Risk → Net Interest Income → Earnings depend on the spread between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities.

Liquidity and Funding → Net Interest Margin → Deposit outflows or shifts to higher-cost products increase funding costs and reduce margins.

Regulatory Capital Requirements → Dividends and Share Repurchases → Capital stress tests and buffer requirements may limit the ability to return capital to shareholders.

Goodwill Impairment → Earnings → $2.8 billion in goodwill is subject to impairment testing; write-downs would reduce earnings and potentially restrict dividend payments from KeyBank.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—