KMB

Defensive

Kimberly-Clark

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$18.3B	$19.4B	$19.1B	$19.7B	$20.8B	$21.1B	$21.2B	$19.7B	$18.6B	$18.2B	$18.3B	$18.5B	$18.4B	$19.1B	$19.4B	$20.2B	$20.4B	$20.1B	$16.4B	-18.0%
Gross Profit	$5.7B	$5.9B	$6.4B	$6.5B	$6.2B	$6.7B	$7.2B	$6.7B	$6.6B	$6.7B	$6.6B	$5.6B	$6.0B	$6.8B	$6.0B	$6.2B	$7.0B	$7.2B	$5.9B	-17.5%
Gross Margin	31.2%	30.2%	33.6%	33.2%	29.5%	32.0%	34.2%	33.9%	35.6%	36.5%	35.7%	30.3%	32.7%	35.6%	30.8%	30.8%	34.4%	35.8%	36.0%	+0.2pp
Operating Income	$2.6B	$2.5B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.4B	$2.7B	$3.2B	$2.5B	$1.6B	$3.3B	$3.3B	$2.2B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.3B	$3.2B	$2.4B	-26.8%
Operating Margin	14.3%	13.1%	14.8%	14.0%	11.7%	12.8%	15.2%	12.8%	8.7%	18.2%	18.0%	12.1%	16.2%	16.9%	13.2%	13.3%	11.5%	16.0%	14.3%	-1.7pp
Net Income	$1.8B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$1.5B	$1.0B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$1.4B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$1.8B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$2.5B	$2.0B	-20.6%
Net Margin	10.0%	8.7%	9.9%	9.3%	7.6%	8.3%	10.1%	7.7%	5.4%	11.9%	12.4%	7.6%	11.7%	12.3%	9.3%	9.6%	8.6%	12.7%	12.3%	-0.4pp
Free Cash Flow	$1.4B	$1.6B	$2.6B	$1.8B	$1.3B	$2.2B	—	—	$1.3B	$2.5B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$1.5B	$2.5B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.8B	$2.5B	$1.6B	-34.8%
FCF Margin	7.9%	8.3%	13.8%	9.0%	6.3%	10.4%	—	—	6.7%	13.5%	11.7%	11.3%	8.3%	13.1%	8.9%	9.2%	13.6%	12.5%	10.0%	-2.6pp
EPS (Diluted)	$4.08	$4.03	$4.52	$4.45	$3.99	$4.42	$5.53	$4.04	$2.77	$5.99	$6.40	$4.03	$6.24	$6.87	$5.35	$5.72	$5.21	$7.55	$6.07	-19.6%

Total Debt$6.5B

Cash & Equiv.$688.0M

Net Debt$5.8B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Kimberly-Clark is in the midst of a high-stakes structural overhaul, trading short-term scale for long-term profitability by exiting low-margin categories like private-label diapers. The pending Kenvue acquisition is the cornerstone of this "Powering Care" strategy, intended to transform Kimberly-Clark into a higher-margin personal care specialist while simultaneously burdening the balance sheet with significant new debt.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Kimberly-Clark’s primary strength—holding #1 or #2 share positions in 70 countries—is threatened by raw material price volatility because brand loyalty does not grant total immunity to input costs. If prices for cellulose fiber or petroleum-based materials spike, Kimberly-Clark must raise prices; if these adjustments trail market increases, the "right-to-win" spaces management prizes will see immediate margin erosion (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the strategic priority of "wiring the organization for growth" is threatened by cybersecurity and infrastructure risks. Kimberly-Clark’s reliance on a global SAP ERP upgrade means any technical failure or data breach directly jeopardizes the supply chain visibility that Kimberly-Clark cites as a key competitive advantage (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While management highlights "momentum," the numbers reveal a company in contraction: Kimberly-Clark’s -18.0% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth is the lowest in its peer group (XBRL). This divergence from peers like Colgate-Palmolive (+1.4%) is structural rather than accidental, driven by the intentional exit from the U.S. private label diaper business, which shaved 3.7% off North American sales in the most recent quarter (8-K). Despite the shrinking top line, Kimberly-Clark remains an efficient cash generator, maintaining a 12.3% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin that ranks 3rd among its peers (XBRL). However, market sentiment remains skeptical; short interest sits at a notable 12.4% of the float, suggesting many investors are betting against the successful execution of the 2024 Transformation Initiative (Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 13.3x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Kimberly-Clark trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 15.0x. This discount appears justified by Kimberly-Clark's recent revenue contraction and a 3.1x net leverage ratio that is likely to climb following the Kenvue merger (XBRL). At this valuation, the market is pricing in approximately 0.5% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This is a remarkably low hurdle for a company targeting "double-digit" adjusted EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth in 2026 (8-K). If Kimberly-Clark can successfully integrate Kenvue and meet its constant-currency profit targets, the current price offers a significant margin of safety. However, the biggest risk to this valuation is a potential "material non-cash charge" from goodwill impairment if the merger fails to deliver the promised synergies (10-K Item 1A).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the Kenvue merger results in a credit rating downgrade or if Kimberly-Clark reports a failure in its SAP enterprise resource planning upgrade, disrupting global operations.
Constructive if organic sales growth in the International Personal Care segment stays above 4%, proving that the "volume-plus-mix" strategy can offset the revenue lost from exiting private-label categories (8-K).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Dominant market share in 70 countries built on proprietary fiber and absorbency technologies and a portfolio of "purpose-led" global brands.

Bottom Line: Kimberly-Clark is a high-yield turnaround play whose value depends entirely on its ability to digest a massive acquisition while navigating volatile raw material costs.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Raw Material Price Volatility: Kimberly-Clark is highly sensitive to price fluctuations in cellulose fiber (kraft and fluff pulp) and petroleum-based materials used in diapers and feminine care. Earnings are threatened if selling prices do not adjust to offset these costs or if adjustments significantly trail market price increases.
Merger Integration and Performance: The pending merger with Kenvue carries the risk that anticipated synergies and cost savings may not be realized. Failure to integrate operations, personnel, and IT systems successfully could lead to business disruption and material non-cash charges from goodwill impairment.
Cybersecurity and Technology Infrastructure: Kimberly-Clark relies on extensive internal and third-party technology systems for global operations, including supply chain management and financial reporting. Cyberattacks, data breaches, or failures in the ongoing SAP enterprise resource planning upgrade could interrupt business and result in regulatory fines or litigation.
Foreign Market Exposure: Approximately half of net sales originate outside the U.S. Operations are subject to currency exchange rate volatility, trade restrictions, and political instability, such as the war in Ukraine, which has already necessitated significant adjustments to Kimberly-Clark's business in Russia.
Increased Indebtedness: Following the Kenvue merger, Kimberly-Clark will carry substantially higher debt than its current $7.2 billion level. This increased leverage reduces financial flexibility, limits the ability to pay dividends or fund capital expenditures, and increases vulnerability to interest rate hikes.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Transformation Initiative Execution: Kimberly-Clark is currently executing a 2024 Transformation Initiative to streamline its global supply chain and overhead. Any failure to generate the anticipated efficiencies or negative impacts on employee and supplier relationships could adversely affect financial results.
Retailer Bargaining Power: The consolidation of retail trade has increased the influence of large-format retailers and e-tailers. These customers may leverage their size to demand higher trade discounts or allowances, directly reducing profitability.
Brand Reputation Sensitivity: As a consumer-facing company, Kimberly-Clark is vulnerable to negative publicity regarding product safety, environmental impact, or social responsibility. The rise of social media increases the speed at which such perceptions can damage brand image and sales.
Labor Market Competition: Kimberly-Clark faces an increasingly tight labor market. A sustained shortage or high turnover could force increased spending on wages and overtime to maintain production levels.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Data Privacy Compliance: Kimberly-Clark is subject to a shifting landscape of global data privacy laws. Changes in these regulations increase compliance costs and create potential liabilities for unauthorized data disclosure.
Tax Law Changes: As a global entity, Kimberly-Clark is exposed to dynamic income tax requirements. Changes in tax rates or interpretations by authorities in various jurisdictions could reduce after-tax income.
Merger-Related Litigation: Kimberly-Clark faces ongoing stockholder complaints and potential class action lawsuits related to the Kenvue merger. These proceedings could result in substantial defense costs, injunctions, or delays that prevent the realization of expected merger benefits.
Anti-ESG Legislation: Kimberly-Clark faces growing opposition to sustainability initiatives, including the enactment of "Anti-ESG" policies, which may conflict with its 2030 sustainability ambitions and impact stakeholder engagement.

4. Financial Impact Map

Raw Material Price Volatility → Earnings → Selling prices may trail increases in pulp and petroleum-based material costs. Merger Integration → Goodwill and Intangible Assets → Potential for material non-cash impairment charges if acquired assets underperform. Cybersecurity/IT Failure → Operating Expenses → Costs related to remediation, regulatory fines, and potential loss of insurance coverage. Foreign Market Risks → Net Sales/Earnings → Exposure to currency translation and potential impairment of assets in volatile regions like Russia. Increased Indebtedness → Interest Expense/Cash Flow → Higher debt service requirements reduce funds available for dividends, share repurchases, and capital expenditures.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—