LLY
HealthcareLilly (Eli)
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.6B | $20.4B | $21.8B | $23.1B | $24.3B | $22.6B | $23.1B | $19.6B | $20.0B | $21.2B | $22.9B | $24.6B | $22.3B | $24.5B | $28.3B | $28.5B | $34.1B | $45.0B | $65.2B | +44.7% |
| Gross Profit | $14.4B | $16.0B | $17.6B | $18.7B | $19.2B | $17.8B | $18.2B | $14.7B | $14.9B | $15.5B | $16.7B | $18.1B | $17.6B | $19.1B | $21.0B | $21.9B | $27.0B | $36.6B | $54.1B | +47.8% |
| Gross Margin | 77.2% | 78.5% | 80.6% | 81.1% | 79.1% | 78.8% | 78.8% | 74.9% | 74.8% | 73.1% | 73.1% | 73.8% | 78.8% | 77.7% | 74.2% | 76.8% | 79.2% | 81.3% | 83.0% | +1.7pp |
| Net Income | $3.0B | -$2.1B | $4.3B | $5.1B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.7B | -$204.1M | $3.2B | $8.3B | $6.2B | $5.6B | $6.2B | $5.2B | $10.6B | $20.6B | +94.9% |
| Net Margin | 15.8% | -10.2% | 19.8% | 22.0% | 17.9% | 18.1% | 20.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | -0.9% | 13.2% | 37.3% | 25.2% | 19.7% | 21.9% | 15.4% | 23.5% | 31.7% | +8.2pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.1B | $6.3B | $3.6B | $6.2B | $6.6B | $4.4B | $4.7B | $3.2B | $1.7B | $3.8B | $4.5B | $4.3B | $3.8B | $5.1B | $6.0B | $5.2B | $792.5M | $3.8B | $9.0B | +138.6% |
| FCF Margin | 21.9% | 31.2% | 16.4% | 26.7% | 27.0% | 19.5% | 20.4% | 16.3% | 8.6% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 20.8% | 21.0% | 18.3% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 13.8% | +5.4pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | $-1.89 | $3.94 | $4.58 | $3.90 | $3.66 | $4.32 | $2.23 | $2.26 | $2.58 | $-0.19 | $3.13 | $8.89 | $6.79 | $6.12 | $6.90 | $5.80 | $11.71 | $22.95 | +96.0% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Lilly has successfully pivoted from a diversified pharmaceutical firm into a specialized engine for cardiometabolic growth, evidenced by a 43% quarterly revenue surge that outpaces all major peers. However, this expansion has created a precarious dependence on a handful of blockbuster treatments, leaving Lilly (Eli)’s valuation tied almost entirely to the continued dominance of its obesity and diabetes portfolio.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Lilly’s core strength in Innovation and R&D is directly threatened by Revenue Concentration; while Lilly (Eli) successfully commercialized Mounjaro and Zepbound, these two products now account for 56% of total revenues (Risks). This creates a "cliff" effect where any safety issue or regulatory setback for these specific lines would have a disproportionate impact on the entire firm. Furthermore, the Direct-to-patient (LillyDirect) strategy is an attempt to bypass Access Barriers, yet it remains vulnerable to the "opt-in" requirements of self-insured employers and the exclusion of anti-obesity medicines by international payers (Competitive Position).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company in a massive investment phase that masks its underlying efficiency. While Lilly leads its peer group with a 82.8% gross margin and a 44.9% operating margin, it ranks last in Free Cash Flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin at 18.6% (Peer Benchmarking). This discrepancy is explained by the aggressive "Manufacturing Expansion" across ten global locations, including North Carolina and Germany, as Lilly (Eli) races to build capacity for its metabolic drugs (Business).
The most recent quarterly revenue growth of 43% (8-K) is consistent with the TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth of 44.7% (XBRL), suggesting that the momentum from the Mounjaro and Zepbound cycles is structural rather than a one-time spike. This trajectory is supported by volume growth, particularly Mounjaro’s 110% worldwide revenue increase (8-K).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 23.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Lilly trades at a 48% premium to the peer median of 16.1x (Peer Benchmarking). According to the CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in roughly 2.7% long-term growth. This expectation seems remarkably low when contrasted with Lilly's actual revenue growth of 44.7%, which is the highest among its peers (Peer Benchmarking).
The premium is justified by Lilly's superior top-line expansion and 82.8% gross margins, which lead the group. However, the primary risk that could compress this multiple is the "rapid and severe revenue decline" typical of patent expirations, specifically the upcoming loss of exclusivity for Trulicity and the inclusion of Jardiance and Verzenio in Medicare price-setting negotiations (Risks). If long-term growth were to align more closely with the implied 2.5% scenario, the justified multiple would fall slightly to 22.8x (CAPM analysis).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the oral obesity candidate, orforglipron, receives regulatory approval, as it would diversify the delivery platform beyond the current injectable Kwikpen (8-K).
- Cautious if FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margins continue to lag peers significantly after the current manufacturing expansion phase concludes, suggesting that the cost of maintaining its market lead is higher than anticipated.
- Cautious if the "mass-compounded" versions of its primary medicines lead to significant net price erosion or safety-related brand damage (Competitive Position).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A dominant, patent-protected metabolic portfolio paired with a first-mover direct-to-patient digital distribution platform.
Bottom Line: Lilly is a premier growth stock in a defensive sector, justified by its massive margin lead, provided it can navigate the concentration risks of its blockbuster portfolio.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Revenue Concentration: Lilly (Eli) derived 82 percent of its 2025 total revenues from just six products: Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio, Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance. Mounjaro and Zepbound alone accounted for 56 percent of total revenues.
- Intellectual Property Expiration: Lilly (Eli) depends on patent and data protection to maintain revenues. The loss of these protections, such as the upcoming expiration for Trulicity, exposes Lilly (Eli) to generic or biosimilar competition, which historically leads to rapid and severe revenue declines.
- Government Pricing and Access: Public and private actors are increasingly restricting pricing and reimbursement. The selection of Jardiance (in 2023) and Trulicity and Verzenio (in 2026) for government-set prices under Medicare creates significant revenue erosion risks.
- Research and Development Uncertainty: A significant portion of R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies investment fails to generate direct financial returns. New product candidates, such as orforglipron, face high regulatory hurdles, and failure to replenish the pipeline in a timely manner would have a material adverse effect on financial position.
- Manufacturing and Supply Chain: Lilly (Eli) is undergoing a significant expansion of manufacturing capacity. Difficulties in this process, or reliance on single-source suppliers (including those in China for chemical synthesis and ingredients), could lead to product shortages, lost revenue, and the risk that capital expenditures for capacity do not yield expected returns if demand fluctuates.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Counterfeit and Compounded Incretins: The production and sale of counterfeit, misbranded, and mass-compounded versions of Lilly (Eli)’s incretin products in the U.S. and other markets threaten patient safety and disadvantage compliant market participants.
- LillyDirect Channel Dynamics: As patient self-pay sales through LillyDirect represent a growing portion of the business, Lilly (Eli) is exposed to risks regarding the pace of patient participation and the potential for regulatory actions to restrict these cash-pay markets.
- Supply Chain Intermediaries: The negotiating power of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) has increased, and their utilization management tools—such as CVS Caremark’s decision to stop covering Zepbound on certain plans—directly limit patient access and revenue.
- Artificial Intelligence Deployment: Lilly (Eli)’s use of AI in drug discovery and operations entails risks that AI-generated analyses could be inadequate, or that Lilly (Eli) may fail to manage AI-related regulatory, cybersecurity, and intellectual property leakage risks.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Medicare Price Setting: Under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Jardiance, Trulicity, and Verzenio are subject to government-set prices, which significantly discount the list price and accelerate revenue erosion.
- 340B Program Expansion: Growth in entities claiming 340B pricing, sometimes inconsistent with the statutory scheme, increases rebate obligations and decreases the prices charged to these entities, impacting revenue on an increasing percentage of sales.
- Global Tax Scrutiny: Lilly (Eli) is subject to evolving tax laws, including the potential impact of a global minimum tax enacted by EU and non-EU countries, which could unfavorably impact effective tax rates and cash flows.
- Litigation Liability: Lilly (Eli) is self-insured for litigation liability losses for all currently and previously marketed products, meaning that large-scale product liability claims or investigations into commercial practices could require substantial charges to resolve.
4. Financial Impact Map
Revenue Concentration → Total Revenues → 82 percent of 2025 total revenues derived from six key products. Intellectual Property Expiration → Total Revenues → Loss of exclusivity leads to rapid and severe revenue declines for specific products. Government Pricing (IRA) → Consolidated Results of Operations → Significant discounts compared to list price for selected medicines (Jardiance, Trulicity, Verzenio). Manufacturing Capacity Expansion → Capital Expenditures → Significant investment in manufacturing capacity risks becoming unnecessary or underutilized if demand forecasts are inaccurate. 340B Program/Medicaid Rebates → Net Revenue → Changes to rebate calculations increase obligations and decrease prices charged to covered entities.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Barclays raises Eli Lilly price target to $1,400 citing tirzepatide momentum
- ▸Barclays price target increased to $1,400 from $1,350
- ▸Analyst reiterated Overweight rating on LLY stock
- ▸Firm raised financial estimates following Q1 2026 earnings report
- ▸Tirzepatide demand cited as primary driver for bullish outlook
Eli Lilly expands AI drug discovery efforts with $2B Insilico Medicine partnership
- ▸Signed $2B partnership with Insilico Medicine for AI-driven drug discovery
- ▸Q3 revenue $19B, +43% YoY driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound
- ▸Mounjaro and Zepbound combined quarterly revenue reached $11B
- ▸Received regulatory approval for Foundayo (orforglipron) GLP-1 weight loss pill
- ▸Collaborating with Nvidia to build supercomputer for AI-powered drug development
Eli Lilly FDA approves oral GLP-1 Foundayo for obesity, shares rally 3.8%
- ▸FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron) oral GLP-1 therapy for obesity
- ▸Phase III studies demonstrated 12.4% mean weight loss
- ▸Pricing set at $25/month for insured patients
- ▸Upcoming quarterly EPS expected $7.53, +125.5% YoY
- ▸Upcoming quarterly revenue expected $17.66B, +38.7% YoY
Eli Lilly Foundayo obesity pill projected to reach $2.8B in 2026 revenue
- ▸Analysts project 2026 sales between $1.5 billion and $2.8 billion
- ▸Citi analysts forecast peak annual sales exceeding $40 billion
- ▸J.P. Morgan projects sales to reach $6 billion by 2027
- ▸Foundayo offers manufacturing and dosing advantages over Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy
- ▸Obesity pills expected to capture one-third of $180 billion global market by 2034
Eli Lilly weight-loss pill Foundayo receives FDA approval, shipments begin April 6
- ▸FDA approved Foundayo for weight loss and weight maintenance
- ▸Shipments to begin April 6 via LillyDirect platform
- ▸Cash price ranges from $149 to $349 per month
- ▸Insured coverage price set at $649 per month
- ▸Analyst estimates project sales reaching $18 billion by 2030
FDA approves Eli Lilly obesity pill Foundayo, intensifying competition with Novo Nordisk
- ▸FDA approved once-daily oral obesity pill Foundayo (orforglipron)
- ▸Clinical trials showed 10-11% body weight loss in patients
- ▸Starter doses priced at $149/month for cash-pay patients
- ▸Insured patients eligible for $25/month starter dose program
- ▸RBC Capital Markets projects peak annual U.S. sales of $36 billion
Eli Lilly weight-loss pill Foundayo wins FDA approval, challenges Novo Nordisk
- ▸FDA approved Foundayo for weight loss and weight maintenance
- ▸Lowest doses priced at $149 per month for cash-pay patients
- ▸Shipments via LillyDirect platform to commence April 6
- ▸Analysts project Foundayo sales could reach $18 billion by 2030
- ▸Clinical trials showed 11% average weight loss over 64 weeks
Eli Lilly to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for $7.3B, 37% premium
- ▸Acquisition price $38 per share, 37% premium to March 30 closing price
- ▸Total deal value up to $7.8B including $9/share in contingent value rights
- ▸CVR payout contingent on cleminorexton FDA approval milestones by 2030
- ▸Lead asset cleminorexton targets narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia
- ▸Deal expands Lilly's neuroscience portfolio into orexin receptor 2 agonist space
Eli Lilly to Acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals in Deal Valued Up to $7.8 Billion
- ▸Acquisition valued at up to $7.8 billion
- ▸Focuses on late-stage sleep disorder therapies including orexin receptor agonists
- ▸Expands neuroscience portfolio into narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia treatments
- ▸Adds new therapeutic vertical alongside metabolic and obesity drug franchises
- ▸Centessa assets include clinical-stage neuroscience programs targeting orexin pathways
Novo Nordisk launches $249/month Wegovy subscription to undercut Eli Lilly pricing
- ▸Wegovy 12-month subscription priced at $249 per month
- ▸Pricing undercuts Eli Lilly's lowest offering by approximately $50
- ▸Partnerships established with Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD for telehealth access
- ▸Long-term subscribers can save up to $600 annually
- ▸Novo shares down roughly 30% year-to-date amid competitive pressure