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Materials

LyondellBasell

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2011–2025(15yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$48.2B	$45.4B	$44.1B	$45.6B	$32.7B	$29.2B	$34.5B	$39.0B	$34.7B	$27.8B	$46.2B	$50.5B	$41.1B	$40.3B	$30.2B	-25.2%
Gross Profit	$5.5B	$5.8B	$6.1B	$6.7B	$7.1B	$6.0B	$6.4B	$6.5B	$5.4B	$3.4B	$8.8B	$6.6B	$5.3B	$4.6B	$2.6B	-43.5%
Gross Margin	11.3%	12.7%	13.9%	14.6%	21.5%	20.5%	18.6%	16.6%	15.6%	12.2%	19.0%	13.1%	12.8%	11.3%	8.5%	-2.8pp
Operating Income	$4.3B	$4.7B	$5.1B	$5.7B	$6.1B	$5.1B	$5.5B	$5.2B	$4.1B	$1.6B	$6.8B	$5.1B	$3.1B	$1.8B	-$420.0M	-123.1%
Operating Margin	9.0%	10.3%	11.6%	12.6%	18.7%	17.3%	15.8%	13.4%	11.9%	5.6%	14.7%	10.1%	7.4%	4.5%	-1.4%	-5.9pp
Net Income	$2.1B	$2.8B	$3.9B	$4.2B	$4.5B	$3.8B	$4.9B	$4.7B	$3.4B	$1.4B	$5.6B	$3.9B	$2.1B	$1.4B	-$738.0M	-154.0%
Net Margin	4.5%	6.3%	8.8%	9.2%	13.7%	13.1%	14.1%	12.0%	9.8%	5.1%	12.2%	7.7%	5.2%	3.4%	-2.4%	-5.8pp
Free Cash Flow	$1.8B	$3.7B	$3.3B	$4.5B	$4.4B	$3.4B	$3.7B	$3.4B	$2.3B	$1.5B	$5.7B	$4.2B	$3.4B	$2.0B	$384.0M	-80.6%
FCF Margin	3.8%	8.2%	7.4%	10.0%	13.4%	11.5%	10.6%	8.6%	6.5%	5.2%	12.4%	8.4%	8.3%	4.9%	1.3%	-3.6pp
EPS (Diluted)	$3.74	$4.92	$6.75	$7.99	$9.59	$9.13	$12.23	$12.01	$9.58	$4.24	$16.75	$11.81	$6.46	$4.15	$-2.34	-156.4%

Total Debt$12.1B

Cash & Equiv.$3.4B

Net Debt$8.7B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

LyondellBasell is a massive commodity engine currently stalled by a "prolonged global down cycle" and rising feedstock costs (14A Proxy). While LyondellBasell maintains a structural advantage through its ability to pivot between different raw materials in the U.S., it is currently forced to prioritize internal "operational discipline" over market-driven growth to protect its investment-grade balance sheet (8-K).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

LyondellBasell’s Raw Material Flexibility—its ability to switch between heavy liquids and natural gas liquids—is directly threatened by Energy and Raw Material Volatility. Even with this flexibility, LyondellBasell cannot always pass on cost increases to customers, leading to the margin compression seen in the O&P-Americas segment where rising feedstock costs recently outpaced product pricing (10-K Item 1, 8-K).

Furthermore, LyondellBasell’s Global Scale is currently a liability due to Global Economic Uncertainty. While its reach is a stated strength, the downturn in European and Asian automotive and housing markets has turned that scale into a source of volume declines, particularly as competitors continue to add new capacity that intensifies price competition (10-K Item 1, 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a company in a defensive crouch. Revenue fell 25.2% (TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter), a much steeper decline than peers like Dow (-7.0%) or Amcor (+10.0%) (XBRL). This divergence suggests that LyondellBasell’s specific product mix is more sensitive to the current "prolonged global down cycle" than its broader chemical peers.

Despite achieving $800 million in savings through its Cash Improvement Plan—surpassing its $600 million target—LyondellBasell still reported a negative Free Cash Flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin of -1.1% (8-K, XBRL). This creates a tension with its capital allocation strategy: LyondellBasell maintains the highest dividend yield in its peer group at 7.2%, yet it must currently rely on credit markets or cash reserves to fund these payments while earnings are negative (RISKS, XBRL). Short interest of 6.3% of the float indicates that a meaningful portion of the market remains skeptical of a near-term turnaround in these cash dynamics.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 16.0x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in ~2.0% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This represents a 12% modest discount to the peer median of 18.2x, a valuation gap that appears justified given LyondellBasell's -25.2% revenue growth and its current net loss position (XBRL).

While LyondellBasell’s 10.4% gross margin is structurally lower than specialty peers like PPG (41.6%), it remains ahead of its most direct commodity peer, Dow (7.4%). For the current price to be "right," LyondellBasell must prove that its $1.3 billion cumulative cost-savings target can restore positive FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders before its $9.0 billion net debt burden becomes restrictive. If long-term growth expectations were to slip to just 1.5%, the justified multiple would likely contract further, erasing the current "discount" (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if the FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin turns positive and sustains the 7.2% dividend yield without increasing net debt.
Cautious if the "MoReTec-1" recycling plant faces construction delays or if European emissions regulations (EU ETS) drive operating costs significantly higher than the current Value Enhancement Program can offset.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Raw material flexibility in U.S. ethylene production and a dominant portfolio of proprietary polyolefin process technologies.

Bottom Line: LyondellBasell is a high-yield turnaround play that is currently a more efficient operator than its closest commodity peers but remains dangerously exposed to global energy spreads.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Industry Cyclicality: LyondellBasell faces alternating periods of capacity shortages and excess capacity, which directly impact capacity utilization rates, product pricing, and profit margins.
Energy and Raw Material Costs: Because many products are commodities, LyondellBasell cannot always pass on cost increases for crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs to customers, which can compress margins and increase working capital requirements.
Capital Intensity and Financing: The business requires significant capital for operations, dividends, and growth; any inability to access credit markets on acceptable terms could force LyondellBasell to reduce dividends or share repurchases.
Operational Hazards: Chemical manufacturing involves inherent risks such as fires, explosions, and pipeline ruptures, which can lead to significant uninsured liabilities and the diversion of cash flow from normal operations.
Global Economic Uncertainty: Downturns in key markets, particularly in Europe, Asia, and South America, reduce demand for products in the automotive and housing industries, leading to decreased sales volumes.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Joint Venture Control: LyondellBasell shares control of certain operations with third parties, which may lead to delayed decision-making, disputes, or the inability to access timely financial reporting from those entities.
Technology Licensing Exposure: As a licensor of polyolefin process technology, LyondellBasell faces reputational and financial risk if hazardous incidents occur at licensee facilities and are perceived to result from the use of its technology.
Pension Deficits: As of December 31, 2025, LyondellBasell’s pension plans had an aggregate deficit of $863 million, which may require additional cash contributions to maintain funding levels.
Divestiture Execution: The planned sale of European olefins and polyolefins assets involves risks related to the separation of operations and the potential for significant impairment charges if the transactions are delayed or abandoned.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Climate Regulation: Operations in Europe participate in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), where LyondellBasell expects an accelerated reduction of free emission allowances and higher market prices for purchased allowances.
Chemical Regulation: Legislative frameworks such as REACH in the EU and the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) in the U.S. may result in increased compliance costs, product restrictions, or outright bans on chemicals used or produced by LyondellBasell.
Plastic Pollution Litigation: LyondellBasell is a defendant in a proposed class action in Kansas regarding industry-wide claims about plastics recyclability, which could result in significant fines, damages, or injunctive actions.
Data Privacy and AI: Evolving global regulations, such as the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, impose complex compliance requirements that could lead to regulatory penalties and increased operational costs.

4. Financial Impact Map

Industry Cyclicality → Operating Results → Significant fluctuations in profits and cash flow from period to period.

Energy and Raw Material Costs → Working Capital → Increased costs for raw materials and energy raise working capital needs, potentially reducing liquidity.

Capital Intensity and Financing → Net Income → Increased costs of financing or inability to raise capital would increase expenses and decrease net income.

Asset Impairments → Goodwill and Other Impairments → Sustained unfavorable market conditions, such as the 2025 downturn in European petrochemicals, resulted in $1,182 million in non-cash impairment charges.

Facility Closures → Shutdown Costs → Permanent closure of the PO/SM production unit at the Maasvlakte site resulted in $126 million in shutdown costs during 2025.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—