MDLZ

Defensive

Mondelez International

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$35.9B	$41.9B	$40.4B	$49.2B	$54.4B	$35.0B	$35.3B	$34.2B	$29.6B	$25.9B	$25.9B	$25.9B	$25.9B	$26.6B	$28.7B	$31.5B	$36.0B	$36.4B	$38.5B	+5.8%
Gross Profit	$12.2B	$13.8B	$14.6B	$17.9B	$19.0B	$13.1B	$13.1B	$12.6B	$11.5B	$10.1B	$10.1B	$10.4B	$10.3B	$10.4B	$11.3B	$11.3B	$13.8B	$14.3B	$10.9B	-23.3%
Gross Margin	34.0%	33.0%	36.2%	36.4%	35.0%	37.3%	37.1%	36.8%	38.8%	39.1%	38.9%	39.9%	40.0%	39.3%	39.2%	35.9%	38.2%	39.1%	28.4%	-10.7pp
Operating Income	$4.2B	$3.8B	$5.5B	$5.7B	$6.7B	$3.6B	$4.0B	$3.2B	$8.9B	$2.6B	$3.5B	$3.3B	$3.8B	$3.9B	$4.7B	$3.5B	$5.5B	$6.3B	$3.5B	-44.1%
Operating Margin	11.6%	9.2%	13.7%	11.5%	12.2%	10.4%	11.2%	9.5%	30.0%	9.9%	13.5%	12.8%	14.9%	14.5%	16.2%	11.2%	15.3%	17.4%	9.2%	-8.2pp
Net Income	$2.7B	$2.9B	$3.0B	$4.1B	$3.5B	$3.0B	$3.9B	$2.2B	$7.3B	$1.7B	$2.9B	$3.4B	$3.9B	$3.6B	$4.3B	$2.7B	$5.0B	$4.6B	$2.5B	-46.8%
Net Margin	7.6%	6.9%	7.5%	8.4%	6.5%	8.6%	11.1%	6.4%	24.5%	6.4%	11.3%	13.0%	15.0%	13.4%	15.0%	8.6%	13.8%	12.7%	6.4%	-6.3pp
Free Cash Flow	$2.3B	$2.8B	$3.8B	$2.1B	$2.7B	$2.3B	$4.8B	$1.9B	$2.2B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$2.9B	$3.0B	$3.1B	$3.2B	$3.0B	$3.6B	$3.5B	$3.2B	-8.2%
FCF Margin	6.5%	6.6%	9.3%	4.2%	5.1%	6.6%	13.6%	5.6%	7.5%	6.2%	6.1%	11.0%	11.8%	11.7%	11.1%	9.5%	10.0%	9.7%	8.4%	-1.3pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.70	$1.90	$2.03	$2.39	$1.99	$1.69	$2.19	$1.28	$4.44	$1.05	$1.91	$2.28	$2.65	$2.47	$3.04	$1.96	$3.62	$3.42	$1.89	-44.7%

Total Debt$17.2B

Cash & Equiv.$4.5B

Net Debt$12.7B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Mondelez is currently trading its bottom line for market share, using the dominance of brands like Oreo and Cadbury to force through price hikes that keep revenues climbing while profits crater. Mondelez International is effectively a massive global distribution engine currently being choked by "unprecedented" cocoa costs, forcing management into a defensive posture of cost-cutting and digital overhaul to protect what remains of its margins (8-K).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

The "Iconic Brand Portfolio" and "Operating Scale" (Business) are directly threatened by "Commodity Price Volatility" (Risks) because Mondelez cannot fully hedge against soaring costs for cocoa and dairy. This forces Mondelez International to choose between absorbing losses or implementing volume-killing price hikes. Furthermore, the "Advantaged Global Footprint" (Competitive Position) is a double-edged sword; while it provides scale, it leaves 75.8% of revenue vulnerable to "Global Operational Risks," specifically the hyperinflation and currency devaluations cited in Argentina, Türkiye, and Egypt (Risks).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a business struggling to outrun its own expenses. While revenue grew 9.3% in the final quarter of 2025, net earnings plummeted by 61.9% (8-K). Peer benchmarking exposes a structural efficiency deficit: Mondelez’s 29.5% gross margin is the lowest in its peer group, and its 6.0% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin also ranks last (Peer Benchmarking). This suggests that despite its $37.2 billion in revenue, Mondelez is significantly less efficient at converting sales into cash than rivals like Hershey or Keurig Dr Pepper. The 5.1% organic growth in the most recent quarter was entirely pricing-driven, as volume and mix were negative—a sign that Mondelez International is testing the limits of consumer loyalty (8-K).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 16.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Mondelez is valued exactly in line with the peer median (Peer Benchmarking). At this multiple, the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 0.6% (CAPM analysis). This low expectation appears justified given Mondelez International's 7.7x net leverage and the fact that its 10.1% operating margin ranks 5th of 6 peers. While the 2.7% buyback yield provides some support for earnings per share, the valuation is capped by management's own guidance of "flat to 2%" organic revenue growth for 2026 (8-K). For the current price to be a bargain, Mondelez would need to prove that its $1.2 billion systems transformation can bridge the efficiency gap with its more profitable peers.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if volume/mix figures return to positive territory in North America, proving that Mondelez International's "iconic brands" retain pricing power without sacrificing consumer demand.
Cautious if the $1.2 billion ERP implementation (8-K) experiences cost overruns, which would further depress Mondelez International’s peer-trailing free cash flow.
Cautious if organic net revenue growth for 2026 falls below the "flat" threshold of guidance, suggesting that private-label competition is successfully eroding Mondelez's market share.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A vast global distribution network coupled with a "local-first" focus that allows Mondelez International to tailor price points and packaging to 150 different markets. Bottom Line: Mondelez is a scale leader currently trapped in a margin vice, making it a fairly valued but stagnant defensive play until commodity pressures ease.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Commodity Price Volatility: Mondelez International faces significant cost fluctuations for raw materials like cocoa, dairy, wheat, and edible oils. During 2025, soaring cocoa bean prices and increased transportation and labor costs drove higher aggregate expenses, directly impacting profitability.
Global Operational Exposure: With 75.8% of 2025 net revenues generated outside the United States, Mondelez International is exposed to currency devaluations, trade barriers, and political instability. Mondelez International specifically cites the use of highly inflationary accounting for subsidiaries in Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt, and Nigeria.
Geopolitical Conflict (Ukraine/Russia): Operations in Russia and Ukraine, which accounted for 3.7% and 0.4% of 2025 consolidated net revenues respectively, face risks of asset impairment, deconsolidation, or termination due to international sanctions and the ongoing war.
Competitive and Channel Shifts: The food and snacking industry is highly competitive, with risks stemming from the growth of discounters and digital commerce. Failure to adapt to these channels or respond to private-label competition can lead to lower sales volumes or the need to reduce prices, hurting margins.
Consumer Preference and Reputation: Mondelez International must accurately predict shifts in consumer demand, including the trend toward well-being and reduced sugar consumption. Negative publicity regarding ingredients, sustainability, or social issues can damage brand health and reduce demand.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Sustainability Goal Execution: Mondelez International has committed to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; failure to achieve these targets or meet evolving reporting standards could result in reputational damage, fines, or litigation.
Pension Plan Funding: Mondelez International sponsors defined benefit plans with a projected benefit obligation of $7.1 billion against $7.8 billion in plan assets; volatility in global capital markets or interest rates could necessitate additional cash contributions.
Cybersecurity and AI Integration: Mondelez International’s reliance on third-party service providers and the adoption of artificial intelligence create new vectors for data breaches and intellectual property theft, which could disrupt global business processes.
Strategic Transaction Integration: Acquisitions and joint ventures are central to the growth strategy, but Mondelez International faces risks in integrating these businesses, achieving projected synergies, and managing potential disputes with partners.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Tax Legislation: The enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in the United States in 2025 introduced new tax provisions that may adversely affect Mondelez International’s effective tax rate and deferred tax assets.
Product Liability Litigation: Mondelez International is currently defending against a December 2024 personal injury lawsuit (Bryce Martinez vs. Kraft Heinz Co. Inc. et al.) alleging that certain food products are addictive and cause health problems.
Global Compliance: Mondelez International is subject to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and various international antitrust, data privacy, and human rights laws; failure to comply can lead to civil and criminal penalties.
Sustainability Reporting: New legislation, such as California’s greenhouse gas reporting requirements and EU directives, imposes significant compliance costs and potential legal exposure if disclosures are deemed inaccurate.

4. Financial Impact Map

Commodity Price Volatility → Profitability/Margins → 2025 aggregate costs were driven higher by soaring cocoa bean prices and increased labor/transportation expenses.

Global Operational Exposure → Net Revenues → 75.8% of 2025 net revenues are subject to currency fluctuations and local regulatory changes in over 150 countries.

Geopolitical Conflict (Ukraine/Russia) → Assets/Consolidated Net Revenues → 4.1% of 2025 consolidated net revenues are derived from Russia and Ukraine, with potential for full asset impairment.

Competitive and Channel Shifts → Sales Volumes/Margins → Inability to price to cover inflation or loss of shelf space to private-label brands directly impacts revenue and margin targets.

Pension Plan Funding → Net Periodic Benefit Costs → The $7.1 billion projected benefit obligation is sensitive to interest rate and investment return volatility, which can trigger additional cash funding requirements.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—