MGM

Cyclical

MGM Resorts

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$7.2B	$6.0B	$6.0B	$7.8B	$9.2B	$9.8B	$10.1B	$9.2B	$9.5B	$10.8B	$11.8B	$12.9B	$5.2B	$9.7B	$13.1B	$16.2B	$17.2B	$17.5B	+1.7%
Operating Income	-$129.6M	-$963.9M	-$1.2B	$4.1B	$80.5M	$1.1B	$1.3B	-$156.2M	$2.1B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$3.9B	-$642.4M	$2.3B	$1.4B	$1.9B	$1.5B	$1.0B	-32.8%
Operating Margin	-1.8%	-16.1%	-19.3%	51.7%	0.9%	11.3%	13.1%	-1.7%	21.9%	15.9%	12.5%	30.5%	-12.4%	23.5%	11.0%	11.7%	8.6%	5.7%	-2.9pp
Net Income	-$855.3M	-$1.3B	-$1.4B	-$30.3M	-$1.8B	-$156.6M	-$149.9M	-$447.7M	$1.1B	$2.0B	$466.8M	$2.0B	-$1.0B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.1B	$746.6M	$205.9M	-72.4%
Net Margin	-11.9%	-21.6%	-23.9%	-0.4%	-19.3%	-1.6%	-1.5%	-4.9%	11.6%	18.2%	4.0%	15.9%	-20.0%	13.0%	11.2%	7.1%	4.3%	1.2%	-3.2pp
Free Cash Flow	-$28.7M	$451.1M	$296.5M	—	—	—	—	—	-$728.5M	$342.3M	$235.7M	$1.1B	-$1.8B	$882.7M	$991.4M	$1.8B	$1.2B	$1.5B	+20.5%
FCF Margin	-0.4%	7.5%	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—	-7.7%	3.2%	2.0%	8.3%	-34.2%	9.1%	7.6%	10.9%	7.0%	8.3%	+1.3pp
EPS (Diluted)	$-3.06	$-3.41	$-3.19	$5.62	$-3.62	$-0.32	$-0.31	$-0.82	$1.92	$3.35	$0.81	$3.88	$-2.02	$2.41	$3.49	$3.19	$2.40	$0.76	-68.3%

Total Debt$6.2B

Cash & Equiv.$2.1B

Net Debt$4.2B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

MGM Resorts is no longer a conventional casino operator; it is an operations and brand management firm that has traded its physical real estate for a massive digital expansion and a 10.7% buyback yield. By monetizing its properties through triple net leases, MGM Resorts has gained the capital to fund projects like MGM Osaka and BetMGM, but it has also replaced flexible operating costs with $1.8 billion in mandatory annual rent (10-K Item 1).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

The "asset-light" strategy is a double-edged sword: while it funds growth, it makes MGM Resorts "disproportionately sensitive" to disruptions on the Las Vegas Strip (Risks). This concentration is threatened by $1.8 billion in fixed rent because these payments are "absolute regardless of property performance," meaning a 3% revenue dip in Las Vegas—as seen in the most recent quarter—directly squeezes the cash needed to service $6.3 billion in consolidated debt (10-K Item 1, 8-K). Furthermore, the goal of becoming a "scaled global online gaming business" faces stiff competition from international incumbents, even as the digital segment's quarterly loss narrowed to $7 million (10-K Item 1, 8-K).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While management highlights "operational excellence," MGM Resorts currently sits at the bottom of its peer group in every major margin category. Its net margin of 0.6% is the lowest among its peers, trailing even Carnival’s 14.5% (Peer Benchmarking). The 6% revenue growth in the most recent quarter is a notable acceleration from the 1.7% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter growth, driven almost entirely by a 21% surge in MGM China (8-K). However, the market remains skeptical of this trajectory; short interest stands at 14.5% of the float, likely reflecting concerns over the 4% drop in Las Vegas Adjusted EBITDAR and the structural margin disadvantage of the lease-heavy model (8-K, Supplemental Signals).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 14.6x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, MGM Resorts is priced exactly in line with the peer median (Peer Benchmarking). At this multiple, the market is pricing in ~5.3% long-term growth (Computed Valuation). While the 10.7% buyback yield—the highest in its peer group—provides a significant lift to earnings per share, the underlying business efficiency is lagging. MGM Resorts's 0.2% Return on Assets (ROAROAReturn on Assets — net income as a percentage of total assets. For banks, 1%+ is generally considered strong) is significantly behind peers like Marriott (9.8%) and Las Vegas Sands (7.6%) (Peer Benchmarking). The current price is only sustainable if the 35% growth in digital revenues can finally translate into positive EBITDAR to offset the "headwinds in Las Vegas" (8-K).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the Macau government exercises its right to redeem the gaming concession after the eighth year, which would result in the automatic transfer of casino premises to the government without compensation (Risks).
Constructive if the Digital segment achieves a positive Segment Adjusted EBITDAR, ending the current streak of losses (8-K).
Cautious if the 14.5% short interest continues to rise, signaling deeper market conviction that the Las Vegas Strip's 3% revenue decline is structural rather than temporary (8-K, Supplemental Signals).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A massive customer loyalty database (MGM Rewards) integrated with a high-growth digital betting platform and an aggressive capital return program.

Bottom Line: MGM Resorts is a high-leverage bet on digital and international expansion, but its razor-thin margins and heavy fixed rent make it a riskier proposition than its more diversified hospitality peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Substantial Indebtedness: MGM Resorts holds approximately $6.3 billion in principal indebtedness on a consolidated basis as of December 31, 2025. This debt limits MGM Resorts's ability to borrow for working capital, capital expenditures, or shareholder returns and increases vulnerability to adverse economic conditions.
Fixed Rent Obligations: MGM Resorts is required to pay $1.8 billion in aggregate annual rent under triple net lease agreements. These payments are absolute regardless of property performance, reducing the cash flow available for other corporate purposes.
Macau Concession Risks: MGM Grand Paradise’s gaming concession is subject to unilateral termination by the Macau government for reasons including national security concerns or failure to perform obligations. The government may also redeem the concession from the eighth year onward, which would result in the automatic transfer of casino premises and equipment to the government without compensation.
Concentration Risk: A significant number of major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip, making MGM Resorts disproportionately sensitive to disruptions in Las Vegas tourism, such as air travel availability or highway capacity constraints.
Competitive Pressures: MGM Resorts faces intense competition from other destination resorts, online sports betting, and iGaming. The issuance of three new integrated resort licenses by the New York Gaming Commission in 2025 is expected to increase competition in the Northeast corridor, potentially impacting New York and New Jersey operations.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Shortfall Guarantees: MGM Resorts provides shortfall guarantees for $3.01 billion and $3.0 billion of indebtedness for the landlords of Bellagio and Mandalay Bay/MGM Grand Las Vegas, respectively. If triggered, MGM Resorts may not have sufficient cash on hand to fund these obligations.
Japan Integrated Resort: MGM Resorts has provided guarantees of 12.65 billion yen (approximately $81 million as of December 31, 2025) for 50% of MGM Osaka’s obligations and an uncapped guarantee to fund the completion of the integrated resort, creating significant contingent liability.
Cybersecurity Exposure: MGM Resorts experienced a cybersecurity issue in September 2023 that resulted in system shutdowns, operational disruptions at domestic properties, and subsequent litigation and investigations.
Labor Relations: Approximately 37,000 U.S. employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements, some of which expire in 2026. Disputes or new labor agreements could lead to significant increases in wage and benefit costs.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Anti-Money Laundering (AML): MGM Resorts is subject to the Bank Secrecy Act, requiring the reporting of currency transactions exceeding $10,000 and suspicious activity. Violations could result in severe penalties and impact MGM Resorts's ability to operate.
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA): As an operator with international revenue, MGM Resorts is subject to the FCPA and similar anti-corruption laws. Allegations or violations could lead to criminal and civil sanctions.
Data Privacy Laws: MGM Resorts must comply with evolving privacy regulations, including the CCPA in California and the GDPR in the European Union. Non-compliance can result in fines, lawsuits, and restrictions on data usage.
Taxation: MGM Resorts faces risks from potential increases in gaming taxes and fees by domestic and international authorities. Additionally, the future recognition of foreign tax credit deferred tax assets is uncertain and subject to valuation allowance adjustments.

4. Financial Impact Map

Substantial Indebtedness → Cash Flow / Interest Expense → Increased interest rates reduce cash flow available for liquidity needs. Fixed Rent Obligations → Operating Cash Flow → $1.8 billion annual rent payment reduces cash available for working capital and capital expenditures. Macau Concession Risks → Revenue / Net Income → Termination of the concession would eliminate all revenues generated from Macau operations. Concentration Risk → Property Revenues → Disruptions to Las Vegas tourism directly reduce visitation and spend at major resorts. Shortfall Guarantees → Cash and Cash Equivalents → Triggering of guarantees for Bellagio or Mandalay Bay/MGM Grand Las Vegas landlords could require significant cash outlays or additional debt incurrence.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—