MOS
MaterialsMosaic Company (The)
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2009–2025(17yr)| Metric | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.3B | $6.8B | $9.9B | $11.1B | $10.0B | $9.1B | $8.9B | $7.2B | $7.4B | $9.6B | $8.9B | $8.7B | $12.4B | $19.1B | $13.7B | $11.1B | $12.1B | +8.4% |
| Gross Profit | $2.8B | $1.7B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $2.8B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $810.0M | $842.8M | $1.5B | $897.3M | $1.1B | $3.2B | $5.8B | $2.2B | $1.5B | $1.9B | +25.8% |
| Gross Margin | 26.9% | 25.1% | 31.4% | 27.8% | 27.7% | 21.3% | 19.3% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 15.8% | +2.2pp |
| Operating Income | $2.4B | $1.3B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $319.0M | $465.7M | $928.3M | -$1.1B | $412.9M | $2.5B | $4.8B | $1.3B | $621.5M | $821.5M | +32.2% |
| Operating Margin | 23.3% | 18.8% | 26.8% | 23.5% | 22.2% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.7% | -12.3% | 4.8% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | +1.2pp |
| Net Income | $2.4B | $827.1M | $2.5B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $297.8M | -$107.2M | $470.0M | -$1.1B | $666.1M | $1.6B | $3.6B | $1.2B | $174.9M | $540.7M | +209.1% |
| Net Margin | 22.8% | 12.2% | 25.3% | 17.4% | 18.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 4.2% | -1.4% | 4.9% | -12.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 4.5% | +2.9pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $461.5M | $445.4M | $1.2B | $1.1B | $299.2M | — | $1.0B | $417.1M | $115.4M | $455.3M | -$176.8M | $412.0M | $898.4M | $2.7B | $1.0B | $47.4M | -$534.6M | -1227.8% |
| FCF Margin | 4.5% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 11.7% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 4.7% | -2.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 0.4% | -4.4% | -4.9pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.27 | $1.85 | $5.62 | $4.42 | $4.42 | $2.68 | $2.78 | $0.85 | $-0.31 | $1.22 | $-2.78 | $1.75 | $4.27 | $10.06 | $3.50 | $0.55 | $1.70 | +209.1% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Mosaic is a volume giant that cannot currently find its footing on profit. While it controls roughly 10% of global phosphate and 12% of global potash production, its recent swing to a $519 million net loss in the fourth quarter of 2025—despite rising sales—proves that market share does not guarantee margins in a volatile agricultural cycle.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Mosaic Company (The)’s primary strength, its vertical integration, is directly threatened by operational concentration (10-K Item 1). While mining its own phosphate rock in Florida and potash in Canada provides a cost advantage over non-integrated peers, this reliance on a few "key production and distribution facilities" means a single mechanical failure or a "potash mine water inflow" can paralyze its entire supply chain (Risks). Furthermore, its global distribution network is undermined by international market exposure; with 64% of sales occurring outside the U.S., the scale that allows for market intelligence also leaves Mosaic at the mercy of the Brazilian real’s volatility and shifting foreign trade barriers (Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
A look across the financials reveals a striking contradiction: Mosaic leads its peer group in revenue growth at +8.4%, yet it is struggling with cash generation, evidenced by a negative FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin of -0.5% (XBRL). This disconnect is explained by the most recent quarterly results, where sales rose to $3.0 billion, but operating losses in the Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments dragged Mosaic Company (The) into the red (8-K). Management attributes this to "higher raw material costs" and "deferred demand," suggesting that while Mosaic Company (The) is moving more product, it is doing so at a higher cost than it can pass on to farmers (8-K). Short interest stands at 6.7% of the float, indicating that a meaningful portion of the market remains skeptical of a quick turnaround despite the revenue gains.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 10.9x, the market is pricing in a meager 0.5% long-term growth rate (CAPM analysis). This valuation represents a significant discount to the peer median of 25.1x, making Mosaic appear attractively valued given it has the highest revenue growth in its peer group (+8.4%). However, this discount is tied to Mosaic Company (The)'s inability to maintain margins; its 16.6% gross margin is significantly lower than peers like Corteva (46.4%) or Martin Marietta (29.9%). For this price to be "right," investors must believe that the Q4 net loss was a temporary setback caused by "deferred demand" and that the guided recovery in phosphate sales volumes to 1.7–1.9 million tonnes in early 2026 will materialize (8-K).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if realized DAP prices hit the upper end of the $640 to $670 per tonne guidance in Q1 2026, signaling that Mosaic has regained pricing power over its input costs.
- Cautious if Mosaic Fertilizantes Adjusted EBITDAEBITDAEarnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization — a rough proxy for operating cash profit, stripping out accounting adjustments continues to trend below $50 million, which would indicate structural weakness in Mosaic Company (The)’s most important international market (8-K).
- Cautious if there is any reported escalation in "potash mine water inflows," which could force a reduction in the 12% global production share management currently cites as a core strength.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Vertical integration through proprietary phosphate and potash mining assets coupled with a dominant distribution footprint in the world’s four largest nutrient-consuming nations.
Bottom Line: Mosaic is a high-scale commodity producer that currently offers an attractive entry point for investors who believe its sector-leading revenue growth will eventually translate back into profit as raw material costs stabilize.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Agricultural Industry Fluctuations: Mosaic Company (The)’s profitability is highly sensitive to weather, crop nutrient application rates, and global inventory levels, all of which are outside Mosaic Company (The)'s control.
- International Market Exposure: With approximately 64% of net sales derived from outside the U.S., Mosaic Company (The) faces risks from foreign agricultural policies, trade barriers, and currency exchange rate volatility, particularly regarding the Brazilian real and Canadian dollar.
- Operational Disruptions: Mosaic Company (The) relies on a limited number of key production and distribution facilities. Events such as mechanical failures, strikes, cyberattacks, or adverse weather (e.g., hurricanes) can significantly impede production and distribution.
- Input Cost Volatility: The cost and availability of raw materials—specifically natural gas, ammonia, and sulfur—are subject to global market instability, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which can compress margins if costs cannot be passed to customers.
- Regulatory and Permitting Risks: Operations are dependent on government permits. Delays or denials in the permitting process, or the imposition of more stringent environmental standards, can increase capital expenditures and operating costs.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Potash Mine Water Inflows: Mosaic Company (The)’s underground potash shaft mines are subject to risks of brine water inflows, which have previously forced the closure of the K1 and K2 mine shafts at Esterhazy, Saskatchewan.
- Financial Assurance Requirements: Mosaic Company (The) must satisfy state and federal financial assurance requirements for facility closure and reclamation; failure to do so via cash escrows, surety bonds, or letters of credit could prevent Mosaic Company (The) from continuing operations.
- Minority Interest Limitations: Mosaic Company (The) holds non-controlling interests in entities like Ma’aden, meaning it cannot ensure these companies will operate efficiently or distribute cash, which may negatively impact equity earnings and liquidity.
- Customer Credit Risk: In Brazil, Mosaic Company (The) guarantees customer financing from financial institutions to facilitate product sales, exposing it to potential defaults if farmers are unable to repay these obligations.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Countervailing Duty (CVD) Orders: Following petitions by Mosaic Company (The), the U.S. Department of Commerce issued CVD orders on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia; litigation challenges to these orders remain ongoing.
- Environmental Liability (CERCLA): Under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, Mosaic Company (The) may be held liable for cleanup costs at current or former facilities without regard to fault.
- Climate Change Regulation: Mosaic Company (The) faces potential material impacts from greenhouse gas emission initiatives in the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, including the risk that competitors in countries with less stringent regulations may gain a cost advantage.
- Environmental Justice Reviews: New state-level requirements for environmental justice reviews in permitting actions could result in permit denials or the imposition of cost-prohibitive conditions on operations.
4. Financial Impact Map
Agricultural Industry Fluctuations → Operating Results → Quarterly financial results vary significantly due to weather-related shifts in planting schedules and purchasing patterns. International Market Exposure → Net Sales → Approximately 64% of net sales are subject to risks including currency exchange rate fluctuations and trade barriers. Input Cost Volatility → Cost of Goods Sold / Profitability → Significant increases in the price of natural gas, ammonia, or sulfur that are not recovered through product pricing impact profitability. Potash Mine Water Inflows → Operating Results / Capital Expenditures → Significant water inflows may require Mosaic Company (The) to incur brine management costs, change mining processes, or abandon operating mines. Customer Credit Risk → Accounts Receivable / Liquidity → Significant defaults by customers on trade credit or guaranteed financing could adversely affect financial condition and results of operations.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Mosaic Downgraded by UBS and BofA Amid Margin Pressure and Potash Oversupply Concerns
- ▸UBS downgraded to Neutral, price target cut to $27
- ▸BofA Securities downgraded to Neutral, price target cut to $30
- ▸Phosphate margins pressured by rising sulfur and ammonia costs
- ▸Long-term potash oversupply risks expected to weigh on future earnings
- ▸Uberaba rare-earth project in Brazil entering prefeasibility study phase
Mosaic Q4 shares decline 6.65% following mixed earnings and rising production costs
- ▸Q4 performance impacted by mixed earnings and management commentary
- ▸Higher potash and phosphate prices offset by lower volumes and rising costs
- ▸Phosphate markets expected to remain tight due to limited new supply
- ▸Company focused on cost discipline and free cash flow generation
- ▸Market capitalization approximately $7.94 billion as of March 30, 2026
UBS downgrades Mosaic to Neutral, slashes price target to $27 from $33
- ▸UBS rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy
- ▸Price target cut to $27 from $33
- ▸Analyst cites structural squeeze on phosphate profitability
- ▸Multiple Wall Street firms recently flagged margin concerns
Mosaic Q4 net loss $519.5M on surging sulfur costs and $189M impairment
- ▸Q4 net loss $519.5 million
- ▸Full-year 2025 net income $540.7 million
- ▸Brazil business Q3 EBITDA +190% YoY
- ▸$189 million impairment charge recorded in Q4
- ▸Earnings impacted by surging sulfur costs
Mosaic Q4 Revenue $2.97B +5.6% YoY, Net Loss $519.5M on Impairment Charges
- ▸Q4 revenue $2.97B, up 5.6% YoY
- ▸Net loss $519.5M driven by $422M in pre-tax notable items
- ▸Adjusted EPS fell to $0.22 from $0.45 in Q4 2024
- ▸Stock dropped 5.3% intraday following earnings miss
- ▸FY26 EPS expected to decline 27.3% YoY to $1.65
Mosaic shares drop 9.96% after Bank of America downgrades stock to neutral
- ▸Shares fell 9.96% to $23.59 following BofA downgrade
- ▸BofA downgraded rating from 'buy' to 'neutral'
- ▸Middle East tensions cited as risk for sulfur and ammonia inflation
- ▸Rare earths project at Uberaba mine site in Brazil in development
- ▸Uberaba site processing potential 2.7 million tons of phosphogypsum annually
Mosaic downgraded to Neutral at BofA, price target cut to $30
- ▸Bank of America downgraded MOS to Neutral from Buy
- ▸Price target lowered by $3 to $30 per share
- ▸2026 EBITDA estimate reduced by $129M to $1.834B
- ▸Rising sulfur and ammonia costs creating $60/ton margin headwind
- ▸Margin expansion outlook pushed to 2027 due to raw material inflation
Mosaic Partners With Rainbow Rare Earths to Develop Uberaba Project Targeting 2030 Production
- ▸Joint development agreement signed for Uberaba rare earths project in Brazil
- ▸Project to treat 2.7 million tonnes of phosphogypsum annually
- ▸Targeting annual production of 1,900 tonnes of neodymium and praseodymium oxide
- ▸Prefeasibility study underway; construction of processing facility targeted for 2027
- ▸Initial production from Uberaba facility expected by 2030
Mosaic and Rainbow Rare Earths partner to develop Uberaba project in Brazil
- ▸Joint development agreement signed to advance Uberaba rare earths project in Brazil
- ▸Prefeasibility study to commence following positive preliminary economic assessment
- ▸Definitive feasibility study targeted for completion in 2026
- ▸Proposed facility to treat 2.7 million tons of phosphogypsum annually
- ▸Targeted annual output of 1,900 tons of neodymium and praseodymium oxide
Mosaic to develop Brazil rare earth site targeting 1,900 tons annual oxide production
- ▸Planned development of rare earth mining site in Minas Gerais, Brazil
- ▸Economic assessment targets 2.7 million tons of phosphogypsum processing annually
- ▸Projected annual output: 1,900 tons neodymium/praseodymium oxide
- ▸Partnership with Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd. to conduct pre-feasibility study
- ▸Processing facility construction targeted for 2025 with production by 2030