MPC
EnergyMarathon Petroleum
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2009–2025(17yr)| Metric | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.5B | $62.5B | $78.6B | $82.2B | $100.2B | $97.8B | $72.1B | $63.3B | $74.1B | $95.8B | $123.9B | $69.8B | $120.0B | $177.5B | $148.4B | $138.9B | $132.7B | -4.4% |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $6.6B | $7.6B | $10.3B | $13.7B | $4.0B | $10.0B | $25.8B | $19.8B | $12.6B | $13.3B | +5.0% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | +0.9pp |
| Operating Income | $836.0M | $1.3B | $4.1B | $5.3B | $3.4B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $2.4B | $4.0B | $5.6B | $5.6B | -$12.2B | $4.3B | $21.5B | $14.5B | $6.8B | $8.3B | +22.0% |
| Operating Margin | 1.8% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | -17.6% | 3.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | +1.4pp |
| Net Income | $449.0M | $623.0M | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $1.2B | $3.4B | $2.8B | $2.6B | -$9.8B | $9.7B | $14.5B | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B | +17.5% |
| Net Margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | -14.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | +0.6pp |
| Free Cash Flow | -$436.0M | $1.0B | $2.1B | $3.1B | $2.2B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $1.1B | $3.9B | $2.6B | $4.1B | -$368.0M | $2.9B | $13.9B | $12.2B | $6.1B | $4.8B | -22.3% |
| FCF Margin | -1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | -0.5% | 2.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | -0.8pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.25 | $1.74 | $6.67 | $9.89 | $6.64 | $8.78 | $5.26 | $2.21 | $6.70 | $5.28 | $3.97 | $-15.13 | $15.24 | $28.12 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 | +31.2% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Marathon Petroleum is essentially a massive, volatile refining operation paired with a stable, high-yield midstream utility (MPLX) that acts as its financial engine. This structure allows Marathon Petroleum to return significant capital to shareholders—highlighted by an industry-leading 8.0% buyback yield—even as it navigates a transition toward renewable fuels and faces long-term demand shifts away from liquid transportation fuels.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "Integrated Asset Network" that Marathon Petroleum cites as a core strength is threatened by refining margin volatility because the high fixed costs of such a large system mean a drop in crack spreads can force asset impairments or the suspension of buybacks (Risks). Furthermore, the "Midstream Connectivity" that provides financial stability is burdened by $26.01 billion in MPLX debt (Risks). This leverage increases vulnerability to interest rate hikes and could limit Marathon Petroleum’s ability to borrow for the "substantial capital expenditures" required to meet evolving environmental regulations (10-K Item 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
While revenue fell 4.4% over the last twelve months, net income for the most recent quarter surged to $1.5 billion from $371 million a year prior (Recent Results, Peer Benchmarking). This divergence is explained by refining margins jumping to $18.65 per barrel from $12.93, proving that profitability is decoupled from top-line growth and entirely dependent on "crack spreads" (Recent Results). The 8.0% buyback yield is the primary driver of value, effectively manufacturing per-share growth even as Marathon Petroleum faces a -4.4% revenue decline. Short interest stands at 3.4% of the float, suggesting the market is not heavily betting against this capital return strategy despite the cyclical headwinds (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 14.4x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in approximately 1.5% long-term growth (Valuation Context). This represents a modest discount to the peer median of 15.7x, which is justified by Marathon Petroleum's lower net margins (2.3%) compared to midstream-heavy peers like Williams (22.7%) or Kinder Morgan (16.6%) (Peer Benchmarking). However, the price appears supported by Marathon Petroleum’s ability to generate a 9.5% implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth rate when accounting for the 8.0% share retirement (Valuation Context). For this price to be "right," Marathon Petroleum only needs to achieve minimal organic growth, as the buyback program does the heavy lifting. If growth were to align with a broader GDP pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would rise to 17.0x (Valuation Context).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if refining margins fall back toward the $12.93 per barrel level seen in 2024, as this would likely force a reduction in the buyback program to protect the dividend.
- Constructive if MPLX distributions grow faster than anticipated, as management expects these to "more than fund" Marathon Petroleum’s entire 2026 dividend and standalone capital needs (8-K).
- Cautious if capital expenditures for environmental compliance significantly exceed the $1.5 billion standalone budget, signaling that regulatory costs are eroding the cash available for shareholders.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A massive, integrated refining-to-midstream network that uses stable pipeline cash flows to subsidize high-volatility refining and aggressive share retirements.
Bottom Line: Marathon Petroleum is a play on capital return efficiency rather than energy volume growth, making it a compelling option as long as refining margins remain above historical lows.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Refining Margin Volatility: Marathon Petroleum’s financial results, cash flows, and growth are highly dependent on refined product margins, which are influenced by feedstock prices and global market factors beyond its control. Significant margin compression may force reductions in capital expenditures, asset impairments, and the suspension of share repurchases or dividends.
- Debt Obligations: As of December 31, 2025, Marathon Petroleum held $33.31 billion in total debt and finance lease obligations. This leverage restricts Marathon Petroleum’s ability to borrow additional funds, compete effectively, and pay dividends, while requiring a substantial portion of cash flow to be dedicated to debt service.
- Environmental and Regulatory Compliance: Marathon Petroleum faces increasing costs to comply with stringent federal, state, and local environmental laws regarding emissions, waste management, and fuel composition. These requirements necessitate substantial capital, operating, and maintenance expenditures.
- Energy Transition and Demand Shifts: Technological developments, government mandates, and consumer shifts toward electric or alternative fuel vehicles threaten to decrease demand for liquid transportation fuels, potentially impacting sales and long-term financial performance.
- Operational Hazards: Marathon Petroleum’s assets are subject to inherent risks including fires, explosions, pipeline releases, and severe weather. Such incidents can result in substantial property damage, environmental pollution, and legal liabilities that may not be fully covered by insurance.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- MPLX Dependency: A significant portion of MPLX’s operations depends on the continued availability of natural gas and crude oil production; declines in drilling activity or production in these areas directly reduce the cash available for distribution to Marathon Petroleum.
- California Regulatory Environment: Legislation such as SB X1-2 and AB X2-1 authorizes the California Energy Commission to potentially establish maximum refining margins, impose financial penalties, and mandate minimum fuel inventory levels, which could adversely impact the profitability of California-based operations.
- Native American Tribal Land Operations: Certain facilities are located on tribal lands, subjecting Marathon Petroleum to independent tribal laws, taxes, and court systems, which can increase costs and delay or prevent operations.
- Foreign Ownership Limits: To comply with Maritime Laws, Marathon Petroleum’s restated certificate of incorporation limits non-U.S. citizen ownership of its capital stock to 23 percent, which could adversely impact the liquidity and market price of its common stock.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Data Privacy and Cybersecurity: Marathon Petroleum is subject to complex international and state data privacy laws (e.g., GDPR, CCPA). Failure to comply, or the occurrence of a cybersecurity incident, could lead to significant penalties, litigation, and reputational harm.
- Climate Litigation: Marathon Petroleum is a defendant in lawsuits filed by various U.S. states and entities alleging damages from climate change, false statements regarding climate change, and violations of consumer protection statutes.
- Anti-Bribery and Corruption: Operations outside the United States expose Marathon Petroleum to U.S. and international anti-bribery and anti-money laundering laws; violations could result in significant legal expenses and reputational damage.
- Joint Venture Liability: Marathon Petroleum’s role as the general partner of MPLX exposes it to potential claims of breach of fiduciary duty and conflicts of interest.
4. Financial Impact Map
Refining Margin Volatility → Income from Operations / Cash Flows → Significant reductions may require impairment of property, plant, equipment, inventory, or goodwill. Debt Obligations → Interest Expense / Working Capital → High debt levels reduce funds available for capital expenditures, share repurchases, and dividends. Environmental Compliance → Capital Expenditures / Operating Costs → Substantial ongoing costs required to install pollution control equipment and perform site cleanups. Commodity Price Fluctuations → Working Capital → Due to a net payables position, a decrease in commodity prices results in a use of working capital. Goodwill Impairment → Non-cash Charges → With $9.4 billion in goodwill as of December 31, 2025, further impairment would result in material non-cash charges to results of operations.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Marathon Petroleum Q1 adjusted EPS $1.00 beats analyst expectations
- ▸Q1 adjusted EPS $1.00 per share
- ▸Results exceeded analyst consensus forecasts
- ▸Strong refining performance drove quarterly earnings beat
LODE raises $57.5M in equity financing, eliminates all debt, and expands board
- ▸Completed $57.5M gross proceeds equity financing in early 2026
- ▸Eliminated all debt obligations and convertible notes
- ▸Cash and cash equivalents $56.1M as of March 20, 2026
- ▸Separated Bioleum Corp. following $35M strategic investment from Marathon Petroleum
- ▸Secured power equivalent to 250-300 MW for Nevada real estate monetization
Raymond James raises Marathon Petroleum price target to $270 citing margin expansion
- ▸Raymond James raised MPC price target to $270 from $210
- ▸Q4 2025 refining adjusted EBITDA $2.00B, up from $559M YoY
- ▸Refining margins expanded to $18.65 per barrel from $12.93
- ▸MPLX expected to deliver $2.8B in annualized distributions to MPC in 2026
- ▸MPC returned $4.5B to shareholders in 2025 with $4.4B buyback authorization remaining
Marathon Petroleum Q4 EPS $4.07 beats $2.71 estimates on 95% refinery utilization
- ▸Q4 EPS $4.07 vs $2.71 estimate
- ▸Refinery utilization rate reached 95%
- ▸$4.5 billion returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends
- ▸2026 capital expenditure reduced to $1.5 billion
- ▸Stock trading at 52-week high of $232.53
MPC Q4 net income $1.5B vs $371M YoY, adjusted EPS $4.07
- ▸Q4 net income $1.5B, or $5.12 per diluted share
- ▸Adjusted Q4 net income $1.2B, or $4.07 per diluted share
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $3.5B, up from $2.1B in Q4 2024
- ▸Refining & Marketing segment EBITDA $1.997B with 95% capacity utilization
- ▸Returned $1.3B to shareholders during the fourth quarter
Refiners MPC, PSX, VLO post Q4 earnings beats amid institutional buying surge
- ▸Marathon Petroleum Q4 adjusted EPS $4.07, beating $2.71 consensus by 50.18%
- ▸Phillips 66 Q4 adjusted EPS $2.47, beating $1.65 consensus by 50.10%
- ▸Valero Energy Q4 adjusted EPS $3.82, beating $3.27 consensus by 16.82%
- ▸Marathon Petroleum Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA $2.00B, up from $559M YoY
- ▸Valero Energy record Q4 throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day