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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2026(19yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $6.9B | $9.7B | $11.7B | $10.9B | $16.7B | $26.9B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $130.5B | $215.9B | +65.5% |
| Gross Profit | $1.9B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $4.1B | $5.8B | $7.2B | $6.8B | $10.4B | $17.5B | $15.4B | $44.3B | $97.9B | $153.5B | +56.8% |
| Gross Margin | 45.6% | 34.3% | 35.4% | 39.8% | 51.4% | 52.0% | 54.9% | 55.5% | 56.1% | 58.8% | 59.9% | 61.2% | 62.0% | 62.3% | 64.9% | 56.9% | 72.7% | 75.0% | 71.1% | -3.9pp |
| Operating Income | $836.3M | -$70.7M | -$98.9M | $255.7M | $648.3M | $648.2M | $496.2M | $759.0M | $747.0M | $1.9B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $2.8B | $4.5B | $10.0B | $4.2B | $33.0B | $81.5B | $130.4B | +60.1% |
| Operating Margin | 20.4% | -2.1% | -3.0% | 7.2% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 28.0% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 37.3% | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% | -2.0pp |
| Net Income | $797.6M | -$30.0M | -$68.0M | $253.1M | $581.1M | $562.5M | $440.0M | $630.6M | $614.0M | $1.7B | $3.0B | $4.1B | $2.8B | $4.3B | $9.8B | $4.4B | $29.8B | $72.9B | $120.1B | +64.7% |
| Net Margin | 19.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 24.1% | 31.4% | 35.3% | 25.6% | 26.0% | 36.2% | 16.2% | 48.8% | 55.8% | 55.6% | -0.2pp |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | $410.2M | $577.9M | $770.4M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $8.1B | $3.8B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $96.7B | +58.9% |
| FCF Margin | — | — | 12.3% | 16.3% | 19.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.2% | 14.1% | 44.4% | 46.6% | 44.8% | -1.9pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.31 | $-0.05 | $-0.12 | $0.43 | $0.94 | $0.90 | $0.74 | $1.12 | $1.08 | $2.57 | $4.82 | $6.63 | $4.52 | $6.90 | $3.85 | $1.74 | $11.93 | $2.94 | $4.90 | +66.7% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Nvidia has successfully transitioned from a graphics chip designer to a "data center-scale AI infrastructure company" that provides the foundational hardware and software for modern computing. By co-designing silicon with a proprietary software stack used by 7.5 million developers, Nvidia has created a platform that is currently growing ten times faster than mature peers like Apple.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Nvidia’s "full-stack innovation" and "data center scale" (Business) are directly threatened by shifting U.S. export controls (Risks). The complexity of these restrictions has already forced a $4.5 billion charge for excess inventory and purchase obligations related to H20 products, demonstrating that even superior technology cannot bypass geopolitical barriers. Furthermore, the "unified architecture" that allows Nvidia to leverage R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies across markets is vulnerable to extreme customer concentration. With just two direct customers accounting for 22% and 14% of total revenue, any decision by these cloud providers to "internalize" their own hardware designs (Competitive Position) would result in material financial harm that its smaller Gaming or Automotive segments could not offset.
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company operating at a level of efficiency that is nearly unprecedented among large-cap technology peers (XBRL). Nvidia ranks first in the peer group for operating margin (59.0%), net margin (52.7%), and FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (43.0%). While revenue grew 73% in the most recent quarter, the Data Center segment now accounts for $62.3 billion of the $68.1 billion total, indicating that Nvidia is almost entirely a play on AI infrastructure.
The TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of 65.5% is slightly lower than the most recent quarter's 73% jump, suggesting that the "agentic AI inflection point" cited by management is driving an accelerating growth trajectory rather than a slowdown. This momentum is supported by a low short interest of 1.1% of the float, signaling that market participants are generally unwilling to bet against this expansion.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
Nvidia appears attractively valued relative to its fundamental performance. At 17.1x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Nvidia trades at a significant discount to the peer median of 22.9x (Yahoo Finance). This discount is difficult to justify given that Nvidia’s revenue growth (+65.5%) is more than triple that of its fastest-growing peer, Meta (+22.2%).
At the current price, the market is pricing in approximately 11.7% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This is a remarkably low bar for a company that recently grew quarterly net income by 94% year-over-year. However, the sensitivity is clear: if growth were to decelerate to 10%, the justified multiple would fall to 13.2x. The current "discount" likely reflects investor anxiety regarding the 36% revenue concentration among two customers and the total absence of Data Center revenue from China in the upcoming guidance.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if Data Center revenue growth decelerates toward the 12% market-implied rate, or if the two largest customers reduce their purchasing patterns as they develop internal chips.
- Constructive if the Rubin platform, expected in the second half of fiscal 2027, triggers a hardware upgrade cycle that successfully offsets the $4.5 billion impact of lost China sales.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Nvidia’s "full-stack" integration of proprietary hardware (GPUs and NVLink) with the CUDA software ecosystem creates high switching costs for millions of developers.
Bottom Line: Nvidia is the most efficient growth engine in the technology sector, and its current valuation fails to account for its fundamental dominance in the AI industrial revolution.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Export Controls: Nvidia is subject to complex and shifting U.S. government export restrictions on high-performance semiconductors, particularly those used for AI and data center applications. These controls have effectively foreclosed Nvidia from the China data center market and forced Nvidia to incur a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 related to excess inventory and purchase obligations for H20 products.
- Customer Concentration: A significant portion of Nvidia’s revenue is derived from a limited number of partners and direct customers. In fiscal year 2026, sales to two direct customers represented 22% and 14% of total revenue, respectively. The loss of these customers or a reduction in their purchasing patterns would materially harm financial results.
- Supply Chain Dependency: Nvidia relies on third-party foundries and subcontractors for the manufacturing, assembly, testing, and packaging of its products. This lack of direct control over production capacity and quality exposes Nvidia to risks of supply shortages, decommitments, and the inability to meet customer demand, which can lead to inventory impairments and lost revenue.
- Product Defects: The complexity of Nvidia’s hardware and software increases the risk of defects, security vulnerabilities, or performance failures. Such issues can lead to significant warranty, support, and repair costs, inventory write-offs, and damage to Nvidia’s reputation and market share.
- Demand Estimation Volatility: Nvidia maintains inventory in advance of anticipated demand based on long manufacturing lead times. Inaccuracies in estimating demand—exacerbated by rapid technological changes and competitive product releases—have led to mismatches between supply and demand, resulting in inventory write-downs, cancellation penalties, and negative impacts on gross margins.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Product Transition Complexity: Nvidia’s strategy of completing new computing solutions each year and maintaining multiple product architectures simultaneously increases the complexity of supply chain management and creates volatility in revenue as channel partners adjust inventory levels ahead of new product launches.
- Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: The use of Nvidia’s GPUs for cryptocurrency mining has historically caused inconsistent spikes and drops in demand. Changes in cryptocurrency standards, such as the Ethereum 2.0 merge, have reduced GPU usage for mining, leading to increased aftermarket sales that can negatively impact retail prices for new products.
- Geopolitical Conflict in Israel: Nvidia maintains significant operations in Israel, including approximately 6,000 employees supporting networking product research and development. An extension or expansion of the conflict in the region could disrupt product development and operations.
- Investment Portfolio Risks: Nvidia holds a portfolio of liquid investments, primarily in U.S. government securities, and makes strategic investments in ecosystem companies. These holdings are subject to market, credit, and liquidity risks, and Nvidia may recognize impairment charges if these investments or the industry sectors they represent decline in value.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Antitrust and Competition Inquiries: Nvidia is subject to broad requests for information from competition regulators in the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and South Korea regarding its sales of GPUs, supply allocation, and partnerships with foundation model developers.
- AI-Specific Regulation: The EU AI Act and various state-level regulations concerning AI technologies may increase compliance costs and impact Nvidia’s ability to train, deploy, or release AI models in certain jurisdictions.
- Data Privacy and Security: Nvidia is subject to stringent data privacy laws, including the GDPR and CCPA. Non-compliance can result in significant penalties, such as fines of up to 4% of worldwide revenue under the GDPR, and may require changes to product design or information technology systems.
- Tax Liabilities: Nvidia is subject to complex international tax laws, including the OECD’s Two-Pillar framework. Changes in tax laws, such as the reduction of the foreign-derived deduction eligible income (FDDEI) deduction or the implementation of a minimum effective corporate tax rate, could adversely affect Nvidia’s provision for income taxes and cash flows.
4. Financial Impact Map
- Export Controls → Inventory and Purchase Obligations → $4.5 billion charge in Q1 fiscal year 2026 due to H20 demand decline.
- Customer Concentration → Total Revenue → 22% and 14% of total revenue attributable to two direct customers in fiscal year 2026.
- Demand Estimation Volatility → Gross Margin → Inventory provisions for low-yielding Blackwell material negatively impacted gross margins in Q2 fiscal year 2025.
- Data Privacy Non-compliance (GDPR) → Operating Expenses/Net Income → Potential penalties of up to €20 million or 4% of worldwide revenue.
- Data Privacy Non-compliance (NIS2) → Operating Expenses/Net Income → Potential administrative fines of up to 10 million Euros or 2% of total worldwide revenue.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 |
| 14A | May 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Horizon Quantum reports Q4 operating loss of $6.5M, up from $4.7M
- ▸Operating loss widened to $6.5M from $4.7M year-over-year
- ▸First earnings report since company went public one month ago
- ▸Company remains unprofitable, consistent with pure-play quantum peers
NVIDIA and Marvell Partner on $2 Billion AI Infrastructure Development Plan
- ▸NVIDIA and Marvell agree to $2 billion AI infrastructure collaboration
- ▸Partnership aims to integrate networking technologies into NVIDIA's AI ecosystem
- ▸Strategic move to migrate non-NVIDIA users to company's software platform
- ▸NVIDIA shares rallied 5.6% following the announcement
- ▸Marvell shares rose 13% on the partnership news
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Sells Nearly $30 Million in Nvidia Shares
- ▸Ark Invest sold nearly $30 million of Nvidia stock
- ▸Third consecutive month of stake reduction by Cathie Wood's firm
- ▸Nvidia remains a significant holding despite ongoing divestment
NVIDIA invests $2 billion in Marvell Technology to expand AI data center infrastructure
- ▸NVIDIA invested $2 billion stake in Marvell Technology
- ▸Investment focuses on custom silicon and AI data center networking
- ▸NVLink Fusion technology to integrate with Marvell custom silicon
- ▸Strategy targets infrastructure bottlenecks in next-generation AI factories
- ▸Follows similar $2 billion investments in Coherent and Lumentum
Wolfe Research maintains NVDA Buy rating, cites Rubin Ultra Pods revenue potential
- ▸Wolfe Research reiterates Outperform rating and $275 price target
- ▸Rubin Ultra Pods designed for agentic AI datacenters
- ▸New Pods offer 50% incremental revenue potential over VR compute racks
- ▸Groq 3 LPX rack provides 25% incremental opportunity via low-latency inference
- ▸CEO Jensen Huang targets production capacity of 200 pods weekly
Nvidia and Marvell Partner on AI Infrastructure, NVLink Fusion, and Optical Networking
- ▸Partnership focuses on NVLink Fusion, AI memory, and optical networking
- ▸Collaboration targets high-speed communication for large-scale AI data center workloads
- ▸Marvell providing critical networking and connectivity for Nvidia's AI infrastructure stack
- ▸Strategic shift toward integrated AI systems beyond standalone GPU hardware
- ▸Reported $2 billion investment cited as part of broader AI market expansion
NVIDIA Rubin Ultra platform launch projected to drive 50% revenue increase
- ▸Rubin Ultra platform introduced for agentic AI capabilities
- ▸New product suite projected to boost revenue 50% over VR compute racks
- ▸Groq 3LPX rack offers 25% incremental opportunity over VR200 racks
- ▸Wolfe Research estimates $150 million Nvidia content per pod
- ▸Potential production capacity of 200 pods per week
Nvidia Q4 Revenue $68.13B +73% YoY; Broadcom Q1 Revenue $19.31B +29.5%
- ▸Nvidia Q4 revenue $68.13B, up 73.2% YoY
- ▸Nvidia Data Center revenue $62.31B, up 75% YoY
- ▸Broadcom Q1 AI chip revenue $8.40B, up 106% YoY
- ▸Broadcom projects Q2 AI semiconductor revenue of $10.7B
- ▸Nvidia Q1 FY2027 guidance excludes China data center compute revenue
Eco Wave Power completes Shell wave energy pilot at Port of Los Angeles
- ▸Completed full pilot lifecycle from feasibility to real-world operation
- ▸Total pilot CapEx maintained below $1 million
- ▸Validated onshore deployment without seabed anchoring or offshore construction
- ▸Identified 77 potential U.S. coastal sites for future deployment with Shell
- ▸Technology featured in NVIDIA GTC keynote for AI infrastructure applications
Nvidia Q4 revenue $68.13B +73% YoY; 40% of business now from non-cloud customers
- ▸Q4 total revenue $68.13B, up 73.2% YoY
- ▸Data Center revenue $62.31B, up 75% YoY
- ▸Data Center Networking revenue $10.98B, up 263% YoY
- ▸Non-cloud customers now account for 40% of total company business
- ▸Marvell Technology Q3 Data Center revenue $1.519B, up 38% YoY