ODFL

Industrials

Old Dominion

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2016–2025(10yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$3.0B	$3.4B	$4.0B	$4.1B	$4.0B	$5.3B	$6.3B	$5.9B	$5.8B	$5.5B	-5.5%
Operating Income	$483.8M	$575.9M	$817.1M	$818.7M	$906.9M	$1.4B	$1.8B	$1.6B	$1.5B	$1.4B	-11.8%
Operating Margin	16.2%	17.1%	20.2%	19.9%	22.6%	26.5%	29.4%	28.0%	26.6%	24.8%	-1.8pp
Net Income	$295.8M	$463.8M	$605.7M	$615.5M	$672.7M	$1.0B	$1.4B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.0B	-13.7%
Net Margin	9.9%	13.8%	15.0%	15.0%	16.8%	19.7%	22.0%	21.1%	20.4%	18.6%	-1.8pp
Free Cash Flow	$147.6M	$154.2M	$311.8M	$504.6M	$707.9M	$662.5M	$916.4M	$811.8M	$888.0M	$955.1M	+7.6%
FCF Margin	4.9%	4.6%	7.7%	12.3%	17.6%	12.6%	14.6%	13.8%	15.3%	17.4%	+2.1pp
EPS (Diluted)	$3.56	$5.63	$7.38	$7.66	$5.68	$8.89	$12.18	$11.26	$5.48	$4.84	-11.7%

Total Debt$20.0M

Cash & Equiv.$120.1M

Net Cash$100.1M

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Old Dominion is betting that its superior service levels and integrated, union-free network will allow it to seize market share during a prolonged freight downturn. While competitors struggle with fragmented networks, Old Dominion is doubling down on infrastructure ownership and technology to maintain a "best-in-class" position that the market currently values at a steep premium.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Old Dominion’s Infrastructure Advantage—owning 240 of its 260 service centers—is directly threatened by Economic Softness because fixed costs like depreciation create a "deleveraging effect" when tonnage drops (8-K). This was evident in the most recent quarter, where a 10.7% decrease in LTL tons per day turned these owned assets into a margin drag rather than a competitive edge. Furthermore, the Human Capital Strategy, centered on the "Old Dominion Family" culture and internal driver training, is vulnerable to Unionization Risks. Any shift toward collective bargaining would dismantle the flexible scheduling and union-free status that management cites as a core driver of its faster transit times (10-K Item 1).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a company using pricing power to mask a significant exodus in volume. While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue fell 5.5%—the worst growth rate among its transport peers—Old Dominion successfully raised its revenue per hundredweight by 4.9% (8-K). This "revenue quality" strategy has kept net margins at 19.5%, yet it could not prevent net income from falling 12.8% in the most recent quarter.

The 2026 capital expenditure plan of $265 million signals that management views the volume slump as temporary, continuing to invest $125 million in real estate despite "continued softness in the domestic economy" (8-K). However, market sentiment is mixed; short interest stands at 8.1% of the float, suggesting a cohort of investors is skeptical of this "build it and they will come" approach during a downturn.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 32.5x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Old Dominion trades at a 65% premium to the peer median of 19.7x. According to the provided CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in ~8.1% long-term growth. This expectation appears ambitious given that Old Dominion's current revenue trajectory is -5.5% (XBRL).

The premium is likely a "quality flight" toward Old Dominion's clean balance sheet—it holds just $38.4 million in net debt compared to the tens of billions carried by peers like Union Pacific or UPS—and its 15.8% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin. However, the valuation is highly sensitive to growth rates. If growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 11.5x, representing a nearly 65% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis). For the current price to be right, Old Dominion must prove it can return to high-single-digit growth quickly.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if LTL tons per day stabilize or turn positive, validating the $125 million investment in service center expansion.
Cautious if the cargo claims ratio (0.1%) or on-time service rate (99%) begins to deteriorate, as these qualitative metrics justify Old Dominion's premium pricing (8-K).
Cautious if operating margins continue to compress due to the "deleveraging effect" of fixed costs during periods of low freight density.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A fully integrated, union-free network and high-density service center ownership that provides superior transit times and pricing discipline.

Bottom Line: Old Dominion is a best-in-class operator priced for perfection in an imperfect economy; it remains a high-conviction bet on an industrial rebound that has not yet materialized.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Growth Strategy Execution: Old Dominion’s reliance on expanding its service center network and increasing market share exposes it to risks including real estate shortages, potential excess capacity from inaccurate volume projections, and the strain of hiring and training new employees.
Economic and Inflationary Pressures: Significant inflation in costs for wages, benefits, real estate, equipment, and fuel threatens profitability if Old Dominion cannot sufficiently raise customer rates to offset these expenses.
Freight Density and Economic Softness: Continued softness in the domestic economy reduces freight volumes and weight per shipment, which creates a deleveraging impact on fixed costs such as depreciation and other indirect costs as a percentage of revenue.
Insurance and Claims: Old Dominion assumes a significant portion of risk through self-insured retentions and deductibles; an increase in the number or severity of claims related to cargo, property, personal injury, or workers’ compensation could significantly reduce profitability.
Equipment Supply and Costs: Difficulties in purchasing tractors, trailers, and maintenance parts due to supply chain shortages or increased costs can negatively impact maintenance expense, depreciation expense, capital expenditures, and driver retention.

2. Company-Specific Risks

OD Family Culture: Old Dominion identifies its unique "OD Family" culture as a key contributor to its success and notes that growth may make it more difficult to maintain this culture.
Congdon Family Control: David S. Congdon, John R. Congdon, Jr., and their affiliate family members beneficially own approximately 10% of the outstanding common stock, allowing them to significantly impact the outcome of matters requiring a shareholder vote.
Fuel Surcharge Lag: Old Dominion does not hedge against diesel fuel price increases and notes that its fuel surcharge recovery lags behind price changes, meaning it may not capture increased costs during periods of rising prices.
Acquisition Integration: Future acquisitions of LTL carriers or complementary businesses carry risks of failing to achieve anticipated synergies, underestimating required resources, and potential dilution to shareholders if equity is issued to finance transactions.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

FMCSA Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA): Unacceptable CSA scores could damage customer relationships and lead to a loss of business, while the program’s requirements may shrink the available pool of qualified drivers.
Emissions and Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV): Stringent EPA and CARB standards, including the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, create uncertainty for fleet planning; if ZEVs are not commercially viable for LTL operations, Old Dominion may be forced to curtail operations in adopting states.
Environmental Liability: Old Dominion is subject to federal, state, and local laws governing hazardous waste disposal and fuel storage tanks, and could be held responsible for contamination costs at past or present facilities.
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA): As Old Dominion arranges international transportation and logistics services, it is subject to the requirements of the FCPA; failure to comply could result in legal claims.

4. Financial Impact Map

Growth Strategy Execution → Operating Expenses → Increased costs from real estate, training, and potential excess capacity. Inflationary Pressures → Profitability and Cash Flows → Upward pressure on wages, benefits, fuel, and equipment costs. Freight Density and Economic Softness → Depreciation and Indirect Costs → Deleveraging impact on fixed costs as a percent of revenue. Insurance and Claims → Profitability → Potential for increased accruals or payments if claims exceed self-insured retention or deductible levels. Equipment Supply and Costs → Capital Expenditures and Maintenance Expense → Higher prices for new equipment and parts impacting cash flows and operating results.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—