PHM

Cyclical

PulteGroup

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$6.3B	$4.1B	$4.6B	$4.1B	$4.8B	$5.7B	$5.8B	$6.0B	$7.7B	$8.6B	$10.2B	$10.2B	$11.0B	$13.9B	$16.2B	$16.1B	$17.9B	$17.3B	-3.5%
Net Income	-$1.5B	-$1.2B	-$1.1B	-$210.4M	$206.1M	$2.6B	$474.3M	$494.1M	$602.7M	$447.2M	$1.0B	$1.0B	$1.4B	$1.9B	$2.6B	$2.6B	$3.1B	$2.2B	-28.0%
Net Margin	-23.5%	-29.0%	-24.0%	-5.1%	4.3%	46.1%	8.1%	8.3%	7.9%	5.2%	10.0%	10.0%	12.7%	14.0%	16.1%	16.2%	17.2%	12.8%	-4.4pp
Free Cash Flow	$1.2B	$699.6M	$565.1M	-$4.0M	$746.2M	$852.2M	$260.5M	-$393.6M	$29.0M	$631.0M	$1.4B	$1.0B	$1.7B	$931.2M	$555.8M	$2.1B	$1.6B	$1.7B	+11.9%
FCF Margin	19.2%	17.1%	12.4%	-0.1%	15.5%	15.0%	4.5%	-6.6%	0.4%	7.4%	13.6%	10.0%	15.6%	6.7%	3.4%	13.1%	8.7%	10.1%	+1.4pp
EPS (Diluted)	$-5.81	$-3.94	$-2.90	$-0.55	$0.54	$6.72	$1.26	$1.36	$1.75	$1.44	$3.55	$3.66	$5.18	$7.43	$11.01	$11.72	$14.69	$11.12	-24.3%

Total Debt$43.9M

Cash & Equiv.$2.0B

Net Cash$1.9B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

PulteGroup is successfully trading volume for value, maintaining industry-leading net margins of 14.1% despite a broader market slowdown that has pushed its revenue growth into negative territory (XBRL). By leveraging its national scale to control land and labor more efficiently than local builders, PulteGroup has transformed into a cash-generation machine that is aggressively shrinking its share count to offset a temporary dip in homebuilding demand.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

PulteGroup’s "captive business model," which integrates mortgage and title services to control the home-buying process (10-K Item 1), is being undermined by interest rate volatility. Pre-tax income from financial services fell to $35 million in the most recent quarter as the mortgage capture rate slipped to 84% (8-K). Furthermore, the strategic advantage of "land control" (10-K Item 1) is becoming a balance sheet liability in the current climate; PulteGroup was forced to record $35 million in land impairment charges in Q4 2025 as market conditions deteriorated (8-K). Finally, PulteGroup’s focus on "operational gains" is threatened by persistent inflation in materials and labor; because PulteGroup often fixes sales prices well before construction is complete, it must absorb these rising costs internally, leading to direct margin erosion (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While PulteGroup’s TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue declined by 3.5%, the most recent quarter showed a steeper 5% drop, suggesting the housing contraction may be gaining momentum (8-K, XBRL). However, the internal efficiency of the business remains a standout: PulteGroup’s 14.1% net margin is the highest among its primary competitors, significantly outperforming D.R. Horton (10.4%) and Lennar (8.0%) (Peer Benchmarking). This profitability is being funneled directly back to investors; PulteGroup repurchased $1.2 billion in shares over the full year 2025, resulting in a buyback yield of 5.1% that ranks third in its peer group. With a net debt of only $415.3 million, PulteGroup maintains a much leaner balance sheet than peers like Lowe's ($36.9B) or D.R. Horton ($3.1B), providing it with the "ample liquidity" management cites as a strategic priority (10-K Item 1, Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 11.0x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of approximately 2.6% (CAPM Analysis). This valuation represents a significant discount to the peer median of 18.4x and makes PulteGroup the "cheapest" stock in its immediate sector (Peer Benchmarking). This low growth expectation appears conservative when compared to management’s stated goal of growing its community count by 3% to 5% annually (8-K). Given that PulteGroup already delivers a 5.1% buyback yield, PulteGroup could theoretically meet the market's growth expectations through share retirement alone, even if net income remains flat. The stock appears attractively valued because its superior net margins (14.1%) and low leverage (0.3x net debt/FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) suggest it is a higher-quality operator than its low multiple implies.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the mortgage capture rate continues to trend downward from 84%, which would signal that the captive financial services model is losing its competitive edge (8-K).
Constructive if PulteGroup successfully hits the upper end of its 3% to 5% community count growth target, proving that its land pipeline can drive volume despite high interest rates (8-K).
Cautious if land impairment charges escalate beyond the $35 million reported in Q4, indicating a more systemic decline in the value of PulteGroup's land inventory (8-K).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A high-margin "captive" model that integrates homebuilding with internal financing and national-scale land procurement. Bottom Line: PulteGroup is an elite operator priced for a stagnation that its aggressive capital allocation and disciplined land strategy are likely to outperform.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Interest Rate Volatility: Mortgage rates reaching their highest levels since 2008 have increased monthly costs for homebuyers, reducing demand and potentially lowering the volume or margins of PulteGroup’s financial services business.
Economic Cyclicality: The residential homebuilding industry is highly sensitive to employment levels, consumer confidence, and inflation; adverse changes in these conditions can lead to customer cancellations and a significant decrease in revenues and earnings.
Inflationary Cost Pressures: Inflation increases the costs of land, materials, and labor. PulteGroup may be unable to raise home prices sufficiently to offset these costs, which could reduce profit margins or limit the number of consumers who can afford its homes.
Supply Chain and Labor Constraints: Shortages of skilled labor and building materials (such as lumber, steel, and concrete) can cause construction delays and cost increases. Because sales contracts generally fix prices in advance, PulteGroup cannot pass these increased costs to customers, leading to margin erosion.
Land Acquisition and Valuation: PulteGroup faces intense competition for suitable land. If market conditions deteriorate, PulteGroup may be forced to record significant write-downs of its land inventory, decreasing asset values on the balance sheet.

2. Company-Specific Risks

ERP System Implementation: PulteGroup is undergoing a multi-year implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system; failure to stabilize this system could impair PulteGroup's ability to produce accurate financial statements or maintain effective internal controls.
Legacy Mortgage Claims: PulteGroup faces potential liabilities related to mortgage loans originated prior to 2009 and loans originated by a former subsidiary of Centex Corporation, which could result in significant repurchase claims or indemnification obligations.
Captive Insurance Exposure: PulteGroup utilizes captive insurance subsidiaries to provide coverage for subcontractors; these policies represent self-insurance, and PulteGroup must record reserves based on actuarial estimates of claims, which may prove inadequate.
Artificial Intelligence Integration: PulteGroup is in the early phases of integrating AI into its operations; failure to manage risks such as accuracy limitations, cybersecurity threats, or unintended biases could negatively impact PulteGroup's competitive position and reputation.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Governmental Conservatorship: The federal government’s conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac creates uncertainty regarding the long-term availability of mortgage financing, which is critical to PulteGroup’s sales.
Environmental and Zoning Regulations: Compliance with environmental laws and local zoning requirements can cause project delays and substantial remediation costs, particularly in environmentally sensitive regions.
Financial Services Compliance: PulteGroup’s mortgage operations are subject to examination by federal and state agencies; failure to comply with consumer lending, disclosure, and anti-discrimination laws could limit PulteGroup's ability to provide mortgage financing or title services.
Wage and Hour Liability: Governmental rulings or changes in labor laws that attempt to hold PulteGroup responsible for the labor practices of its subcontractors could create substantial financial exposure.

4. Financial Impact Map

Interest Rate Volatility → Financial Services Revenue and Margins → Reduced volume or margins in the financial services business due to mortgage market conditions. Economic Cyclicality → Revenues and Earnings → Significant decrease in home deliveries and pricing power resulting from reduced consumer demand. Inflationary Cost Pressures → Profit Margins → Inability to recoup increased land, material, and labor costs through higher home prices. Supply Chain and Labor Constraints → Construction Costs → Erosion of margins due to fixed-price sales contracts that prevent passing on increased building costs. Land Acquisition and Valuation → Land Inventory and Shareholders' Equity → Potential for significant write-downs of land carrying values and forfeiture of deposits/pre-acquisition costs.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—