PLTR
TechnologyPalantir Technologies
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Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2018–2025(8yr)| Metric | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $595.4M | $742.6M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $4.5B | +56.2% |
| Gross Profit | $430.0M | $500.2M | $740.1M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $3.7B | +60.3% |
| Gross Margin | 72.2% | 67.4% | 67.7% | 78.0% | 78.6% | 80.6% | 80.2% | 82.4% | +2.1pp |
| Operating Income | -$623.4M | -$576.4M | -$1.2B | -$411.0M | -$161.2M | $120.0M | $310.4M | $1.4B | +355.5% |
| Operating Margin | -104.7% | -77.6% | -107.4% | -26.7% | -8.5% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 31.6% | +20.8pp |
| Net Income | -$580.0M | -$579.6M | -$1.2B | -$520.4M | -$373.7M | $209.8M | $462.2M | $1.6B | +251.6% |
| Net Margin | -97.4% | -78.1% | -106.7% | -33.7% | -19.6% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 36.3% | +20.2pp |
| Free Cash Flow | -$52.0M | -$178.3M | -$308.8M | $321.2M | $183.7M | $697.1M | $1.1B | $2.1B | +84.1% |
| FCF Margin | -8.7% | -24.0% | -28.3% | 20.8% | 9.6% | 31.3% | 39.8% | 46.9% | +7.1pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.17 | $-1.02 | $-1.20 | $-0.27 | $-0.18 | $0.09 | $0.19 | $0.63 | +231.6% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Palantir has transitioned from a specialized data consultancy into a high-margin software powerhouse that is currently outgrowing the entire enterprise technology sector. By embedding its "Ontology" as a central operating system within customer environments, Palantir Technologies has moved beyond simple data analytics to become the foundational layer for institutional decision-making (10-K Item 1).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Palantir’s primary competitive advantage—its ability to deploy complex workflows in days rather than months—is directly threatened by its unpredictable sales cycle, which frequently lasts up to a year (10-K Item 1A). While the software installs quickly, the "considerable time and expense" required to close deals creates a bottleneck that makes quarterly cash flows difficult to predict. Furthermore, Palantir Technologies’s focus on "risky and resource-intensive" installations is a double-edged sword; while it keeps smaller competitors away, it increases the impact of contractual termination-for-convenience clauses, which put $11.2 billion in remaining deal value at risk (10-K Item 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a business that is gaining momentum even as it reaches significant scale. While trailing twelve-month revenue grew 56.2%, the most recent quarter showed an acceleration to 70% growth (8-K). This divergence is driven by a structural shift in the business mix: U.S. commercial revenue grew by 137% in the fourth quarter, far outstripping the 66% growth in the government sector (8-K).
Palantir maintains the highest gross margins (81%) and free cash flow margins (46.2%) in its peer group, which includes established giants like Oracle and IBM (XBRL). Short interest remains low at 2.4% of the float, suggesting that despite the high valuation, there is little market appetite for betting against this growth trajectory (Supplemental Signals). However, the "Rule of 40" score of 127% indicates that Palantir is currently prioritizing aggressive expansion over maximizing immediate GAAPGAAPGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles — the standard U.S. accounting rules all public companies must follow profitability, even as it expects to remain net income positive in each quarter of 2026 (8-K).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
Palantir trades at a significant premium that leaves no room for error. At 82.2x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the stock is priced at a 253% premium to the peer median of 23.3x.
- Implied Growth: The market is pricing in approximately 12.8% long-term growth (CAPM analysis).
- Fundamentals: While Palantir’s current 56.2% revenue growth easily clears this hurdle, the valuation is highly sensitive to any deceleration.
- Sensitivity: If long-term growth expectations were to moderate to 11%, the justified multiple would drop to 32.6x—representing a potential 60% decline from current levels.
The current price is only justifiable if Palantir maintains its status as the "first mover" in operational AI leverage. Any sign that its AIP bootcamps are failing to convert into long-term contracts would likely cause the multiple to compress toward the peer group average.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if U.S. commercial revenue growth falls below the 115% floor guided for the full year 2026, as this segment is the primary engine of the current valuation (8-K).
- Constructive if Palantir Technologies reduces its revenue concentration, specifically if the top three customers' share of total revenue drops below 10%, signaling broader market adoption.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: High switching costs created by the "Ontology" framework and a cloud-agnostic deployment layer that allows the software to run in environments where traditional SaaS cannot.
Bottom Line: Palantir is a best-in-class growth story, but its stock is priced for perfection, making it a high-stakes bet on the permanent dominance of its AI platform.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Revenue Concentration: A limited number of customers account for a substantial portion of revenue. The top three customers represented 16% and 17% of revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
- Sales Cycle Complexity: Sales efforts involve considerable time and expense, with cycles often lasting six to nine months and sometimes extending to a year or more. This unpredictability makes it difficult to plan margins and cash flows.
- Profitability Sustainability: Palantir Technologies anticipates operating expenses will continue to increase as it expands its business, hires employees, and invests in research and development. There is no assurance Palantir Technologies can maintain profitability if revenue growth does not offset these rising costs.
- Contractual Termination Risks: Many customer contracts contain termination for convenience provisions. The U.S. federal government is prohibited from exercising contract options more than one year in advance, creating uncertainty regarding the realization of the $11.2 billion in total remaining deal value as of December 31, 2025.
- Quarterly Fluctuations: Results of operations and key business measures are likely to fluctuate significantly on a quarterly basis, making future results difficult to predict and potentially causing the trading price of Class A common stock to decline if expectations are not met.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Founder Voting Control: The multi-class stock structure, the Founder Voting Trust Agreement, and the Founder Voting Agreement concentrate voting power with Stephen Cohen, Alexander Karp, and Peter Thiel, limiting the ability of other stockholders to influence corporate matters.
- Mission-Driven Exclusions: Palantir Technologies may refuse to enter into relationships with potential customers if their activities are considered inconsistent with Palantir Technologies’s mission to support Western liberal democracy, which may limit growth prospects.
- Strategic Investment Exposure: Palantir Technologies has made strategic investments in various entities, including special purpose acquisition companies. As of December 31, 2025, the total value of Strategic Commercial Contracts was $326.1 million, and Palantir Technologies has realized losses on equity securities that negatively impact financial position and cash flows.
- Reliance on Key Personnel: Palantir Technologies is highly dependent on the continued contributions of its management team, particularly Alexander Karp, whose management experience would be difficult to replace.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- AI Regulation: Palantir Technologies is subject to evolving U.S. and non-U.S. laws regarding AI, such as the EU AI Act, which may require additional resources to ensure compliance and could result in liability if AI applications produce deficient or unreliable analyses.
- Data Privacy and Security: Palantir Technologies is subject to complex and evolving global laws regarding privacy, data protection, and security. Failure to comply could lead to regulatory investigations, material fines, and penalties.
- Government Contracting Policies: Changes in the contracting or fiscal policies of the public sector, including delays in the U.S. government’s budgeting process or the use of continuing resolutions, can adversely affect the ability to recognize revenue under government contracts.
4. Financial Impact Map
Revenue Concentration → Revenue → Top three customers accounted for 16% and 17% of revenue in 2025 and 2024. Sales Cycle Complexity → Cash Flows → Large portion of sales close in the last weeks of a quarter, impacting margin and cash flow planning. Profitability Sustainability → Operating Expenses → Costs of revenue and operating expenses are expected to increase due to infrastructure, hiring, and R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies investments. Contractual Termination Risks → Total Remaining Deal Value → $11.2 billion in total remaining deal value as of December 31, 2025, is subject to termination for convenience and budgetary contingencies. Strategic Investment Exposure → Earnings Per Share → Realized losses on equity securities and potential goodwill impairment charges from acquisitions impact future financial position and earnings.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
PLTR Q1 Earnings and Revenue Beat Estimates Amid Strong U.S. Government Sales
- ▸Q1 earnings and revenue exceeded analyst estimates
- ▸U.S. government business segment showed significant strength
- ▸Shares fell 6.93% following the earnings release
- ▸Growth driven by expansion in government sector contracts
Palantir shares slip 0.2% despite strong earnings report and record sector highs
- ▸Palantir reported strong Q4 earnings results
- ▸Stock price declined 0.2% despite positive financial performance
- ▸CTO Shyam Sankar declared 'death of legacy software' during investor call
- ▸Broader software sector indices surged toward record highs
- ▸Market reaction decoupled from company's positive earnings beat
Palantir Q1 results beat analyst expectations on robust AI platform demand
- ▸Q1 results exceeded Wall Street expectations
- ▸Robust cash generation driven by enterprise AI platform adoption
- ▸Shares fell 2% premarket on valuation concerns
- ▸Analysts cite high trading multiples relative to future sales
- ▸Mixed outlook due to potential slowing growth and rising competition
Palantir Q1 Revenue $1.63B +85% YoY, EPS $0.33 Beats Estimates
- ▸Total revenue $1.63B, up 85% YoY, beating estimates
- ▸EPS $0.33, 13.8% surprise against $0.29 consensus estimate
- ▸Government revenue $858M, +76.2% YoY, exceeding $768M estimate
- ▸U.S. commercial revenue $595M, missing $604M projection
- ▸Raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.65B–$7.66B
AppFolio Q1 Revenue $262.2M +20.5% YoY, Raises FY26 Revenue Guidance to $1.11B-$1.125B
- ▸Q1 revenue $262.21M, up from $217.7M YoY
- ▸Q1 net income $42.42M, up from $31.38M YoY
- ▸FY26 revenue guidance raised to $1.11B–$1.125B
- ▸Profit margins contracted to 15.3% from 23.9% YoY
- ▸Kyle Triplett promoted to Chief Product Officer
Palantir Q1 Revenue +85% YoY, Beats Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance Across All Metrics
- ▸Q1 revenue grew 85% year over year, beating Wall Street estimates
- ▸U.S. commercial revenue $595M, missing analyst estimates of $605M
- ▸Full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance raised to $3.224B, exceeding $3.14B estimates
- ▸Q2 and full-year guidance raised above consensus across all key metrics
- ▸Stock fell 7% post-earnings amid valuation concerns and AI sector pressure
Palantir Q1 revenue +85% to $1.63B, EPS $0.33, commercial growth misses expectations
- ▸Q1 revenue $1.63B, up 85% YoY
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.33
- ▸Government revenue $687M, beating $610.5M estimates
- ▸U.S. commercial revenue $595M, missed analyst expectations
- ▸Stock dropped 6% post-earnings on valuation concerns and commercial segment performance
Palantir Q4 earnings beat estimates, shares slide despite strong quarterly performance
- ▸Q4 earnings per share exceeded analyst expectations
- ▸Quarterly revenue growth remained strong
- ▸Stock price declined despite positive earnings surprise
- ▸Company continues to see high demand for data analytics software
Palantir Q1 Revenue +85% to $1.63B, Raises FY26 Guidance to $7.66B Midpoint
- ▸Q1 revenue $1.63B, up 85% YoY
- ▸U.S. revenue grew 104% YoY, accounting for 79% of total
- ▸Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $7.66B midpoint, up 10 points
- ▸Non-GAAP operating margin reached 60%
- ▸Total contract value (TCV) $2.41B, decelerating from $4.26B in Q4
Palantir Q1 revenue beats estimates, raises full-year guidance despite 7% share price decline
- ▸Q1 2026 earnings beat analyst expectations
- ▸Full-year revenue guidance raised following strong quarterly performance
- ▸Shares down 7% midday despite positive earnings report
- ▸Stock down 23% year-to-date
- ▸Trading near $136 per share