POOL

Cyclical

Pool Corporation

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$1.8B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.9B	$5.3B	$6.2B	$5.5B	$5.3B	$5.3B	-0.4%
Gross Profit	$515.2M	$449.7M	$471.3M	$531.6M	$567.4M	$591.3M	$643.3M	$675.6M	$741.1M	$805.3M	$870.2M	$924.9M	$1.1B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$1.7B	$1.6B	$1.6B	-0.2%
Gross Margin	28.9%	29.2%	29.2%	29.6%	29.0%	28.4%	28.6%	28.6%	28.8%	28.9%	29.0%	28.9%	28.7%	30.5%	31.3%	30.0%	29.7%	29.7%	+0.1pp
Operating Income	$115.5M	$88.4M	$101.2M	$125.1M	$144.9M	$165.5M	$188.9M	$216.2M	$255.9M	$284.4M	$313.9M	$341.2M	$464.0M	$832.8M	$1.0B	$746.6M	$617.2M	$580.2M	-6.0%
Operating Margin	6.5%	5.7%	6.3%	7.0%	7.4%	8.0%	8.4%	9.1%	10.0%	10.2%	10.5%	10.7%	11.8%	15.7%	16.6%	13.5%	11.6%	11.0%	-0.7pp
Net Income	$57.0M	$19.2M	$57.6M	$72.0M	$82.0M	$97.3M	$110.7M	$128.3M	$149.0M	$191.6M	$234.5M	$261.6M	$366.7M	$650.6M	$748.5M	$523.2M	$434.3M	$406.4M	-6.4%
Net Margin	3.2%	1.2%	3.6%	4.0%	4.2%	4.7%	4.9%	5.4%	5.8%	6.9%	7.8%	8.2%	9.3%	12.3%	12.1%	9.4%	8.2%	7.7%	-0.5pp
Free Cash Flow	$86.3M	$106.1M	$85.9M	$55.6M	$102.8M	$86.3M	$104.5M	$117.0M	$131.0M	$135.9M	$87.1M	$265.4M	$375.9M	$275.8M	$441.2M	$828.1M	$599.7M	$309.5M	-48.4%
FCF Margin	4.8%	6.9%	5.3%	3.1%	5.3%	4.2%	4.7%	4.9%	5.1%	4.9%	2.9%	8.3%	9.5%	5.2%	7.1%	14.9%	11.3%	5.9%	-5.4pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.17	$0.39	$1.15	$1.47	$1.71	$2.05	$2.44	$2.90	$3.47	$4.51	$5.62	$6.40	$8.97	$15.97	$18.70	$13.35	$11.30	$10.85	-4.0%

Total Debt$1.2B

Cash & Equiv.$16.4M

Net Debt$1.2B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Pool Corporation is transitioning from a period of rapid expansion to a defensive posture, relying on its "nondiscretionary" maintenance business—which accounts for 64% of revenue—to provide a floor as economic pressures dampen pool construction (10-K Item 1). While it remains the world’s largest distributor, its future growth depends on "unlocking capacity" through its POOL360 digital ecosystem rather than just physical footprint expansion. Pool Corporation is essentially betting that its digital tools and proprietary brands can defend margins even as the broader pool-building market slows.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Pool Corporation's "Network Density," a stated competitive strength, is heavily concentrated in just four states—California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona—which generated 53% of 2025 net sales (10-K Item 1A). This concentration turns a logistical advantage into a liability when extreme weather events occur, particularly since 78% of operating income is generated in the second and third quarters. Furthermore, the push for "Proprietary Brands" to boost margins is a necessary hedge against supplier concentration; currently, just three vendors control 43% of Pool Corporation's product costs, giving them significant leverage over Pool Corporation’s bottom line.

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While management emphasizes resilience, the financials show a company using debt to maintain shareholder returns during a growth plateau. Total debt rose by $249.1 million to $1.2 billion in 2025, primarily to fund $341.1 million in share repurchases even as net income fell from $37.3 million to $31.6 million in the final quarter (8-K). This aggressive capital allocation supports a 3.1% buyback yield—the third-highest among its peers—but it comes as revenue growth has turned slightly negative (-0.4% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter). The 12% short interest (Yahoo Finance) suggests that a significant portion of the market is skeptical of this strategy, likely focusing on the 13% drop in quarterly EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 17.6x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Pool Corporation trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 21.1x. This discount is justified by its negative revenue growth (-0.4%) compared to faster-growing industrial peers like Fastenal (+8.7%). At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 5.7% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). Given that implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth sits at 8.8% when including the "buyback lift," the valuation assumes Pool Corporation can maintain its 9.5% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin—the second-highest in its peer group—while navigating a discretionary spending slowdown. However, the sensitivity is high: if growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would drop to 11.3x.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if the "improving trends for discretionary products" cited by management in late 2025 translate into positive year-over-year revenue growth in the first half of 2026.
Cautious if net leverage (currently 1.9x) continues to climb to fund buybacks while operating margins (12.3%) remain significantly below those of top-tier distributors like Fastenal (20.5%).
Cautious if supplier concentration increases further, or if any of the top three vendors (Pentair, Zodiac, or Hayward) announce a shift toward direct-to-consumer sales, bypassing the wholesale channel.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Massive wholesale scale combined with a proprietary digital ecosystem (POOL360) that creates high switching costs for small, entrepreneurial service companies. Bottom Line: Pool Corporation is a high-quality cash generator currently priced for a recovery that its recent earnings decline has yet to confirm.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Macroeconomic Sensitivity: Demand for Pool Corporation products is tied to discretionary spending, which is influenced by interest rates, inflation, and housing market health. A decline in these areas can reduce sales and inhibit the collection of receivables.
Weather Seasonality: Pool Corporation is highly sensitive to weather, with 61% of net sales and 78% of operating income generated in the second and third quarters. Unfavorable weather in these peak periods can significantly impair financial results.
Supplier Concentration: Pool Corporation relies on Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc., and Hayward Holdings, Inc. for 20%, 12%, and 11% of the costs of products sold, respectively. Any disruption in these relationships or a shift to direct-to-consumer sales by these vendors could harm the business.
Competitive Pressure: Pool Corporation faces intense competition from mass-market retailers and internet-based merchants. Increased focus from these entities on pool-related products could reduce Pool Corporation’s margins or market share.
Inventory Management: Failure to accurately forecast demand for pool and outdoor living products can lead to inventory obsolescence, requiring write-downs, or inventory shortages, which result in lost sales opportunities.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Geographic Concentration: Approximately 53% of 2025 net sales were derived from California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona, making Pool Corporation disproportionately vulnerable to regional economic downturns or localized natural disasters in these states.
Rebate Dependency: A portion of product costs is offset by vendor rebates. If Pool Corporation fails to qualify for these programs or if suppliers reduce them, the cost of goods sold will increase, directly impacting gross margin.
Digital Transformation Risks: As Pool Corporation integrates artificial intelligence and updates its e-commerce infrastructure, it faces risks of system disruptions, implementation delays, and potential inaccuracies in data that could hinder operational efficiency.
International Exposure: Operations in Canada and Mexico, which accounted for 7% of 2025 total net sales, expose Pool Corporation to currency fluctuations, local regulatory changes, and trade restrictions.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Pesticide Regulation: Pool Corporation sells algaecides and pest control products regulated under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. Non-compliance with labeling, registration, and licensing requirements could lead to fines, seizures, or injunctive relief.
Data Privacy: Pool Corporation is subject to complex and evolving data privacy laws, such as the California Consumer Privacy Rights Act. Non-compliance or security breaches involving sensitive customer or employee data could result in substantial penalties and litigation.
Climate-Related Disclosures: New and proposed regulations in the U.S. and Europe requiring sustainability disclosures increase compliance costs and expose Pool Corporation to potential legal claims if stakeholders perceive disclosures as inaccurate or misleading.
Chemical Handling: The storage of chemicals and fertilizers at sales centers and the chemical re-packaging plant subjects Pool Corporation to fire and safety regulations. Failure to adhere to local fire marshal requirements or safety protocols could lead to casualty losses and liability claims.

4. Financial Impact Map

Discretionary Spending Decline → Net Sales → 64% of sales derived from maintenance/repair; 22% from remodeling. Extreme Weather Events → Operating Income → 78% of operating income generated in Q2 and Q3. Supplier Concentration → Cost of Products Sold → Three largest suppliers account for 43% of product costs. Competitive Pricing Pressure → Gross Margin → Inability to raise prices to offset cost increases limits margin maintenance. Variable Rate Debt → Profitability/Cash Flows → Unsecured syndicated senior credit facility and term facility bear variable interest rates.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—