RSG

Industrials

Republic Services

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$3.2B	$3.7B	$8.2B	$8.1B	$9.8B	$9.7B	$10.1B	$10.6B	$11.0B	$11.4B	$12.1B	$11.9B	$12.2B	$12.0B	$13.3B	$15.6B	$17.3B	$18.4B	$19.0B	+3.3%
Gross Profit	$1.2B	$1.3B	$3.4B	$3.3B	$4.9B	$4.7B	$4.9B	$5.0B	$5.5B	$5.6B	$5.9B	$5.7B	$5.9B	$5.9B	$6.6B	$7.4B	$8.3B	$9.1B	$9.4B	+3.6%
Gross Margin	36.9%	34.4%	40.9%	41.2%	50.1%	48.6%	48.4%	47.0%	49.9%	49.2%	48.5%	48.3%	48.3%	49.3%	49.4%	47.6%	48.2%	49.2%	49.4%	+0.2pp
Operating Income	$536.0M	$283.2M	$1.6B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.7B	$2.1B	$2.4B	$2.8B	$3.2B	$3.3B	+3.3%
Operating Margin	16.9%	7.7%	19.4%	19.0%	15.9%	13.6%	11.9%	11.6%	14.2%	13.5%	13.8%	14.6%	14.7%	14.2%	15.6%	15.3%	16.1%	17.4%	17.4%	+0.0pp
Net Income	$290.2M	$73.8M	$495.0M	$506.5M	$589.2M	$571.8M	$588.9M	$547.6M	$749.9M	$612.6M	$1.3B	$1.0B	$1.1B	$967.2M	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.1B	+4.7%
Net Margin	9.1%	2.0%	6.0%	6.2%	6.0%	5.9%	5.8%	5.2%	6.8%	5.4%	10.6%	8.7%	8.8%	8.0%	9.7%	9.5%	10.0%	11.1%	11.2%	+0.1pp
Free Cash Flow	$368.8M	$125.3M	$570.2M	$639.0M	$830.2M	$610.3M	$667.4M	$667.3M	$734.1M	$920.0M	$920.9M	$1.2B	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.4B	+15.8%
FCF Margin	11.6%	3.4%	7.0%	7.9%	8.5%	6.3%	6.6%	6.3%	6.7%	8.1%	7.6%	9.8%	9.4%	10.6%	11.0%	11.1%	11.5%	11.3%	12.7%	+1.4pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.51	$0.37	$1.30	$1.32	$1.56	$1.55	$1.62	$1.53	$2.13	$1.78	$3.77	$3.16	$3.33	$3.02	$4.04	$4.69	$5.47	$6.49	$6.85	+5.5%

Total Debt$13.7B

Cash & Equiv.$76.0M

Net Debt$13.6B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Republic Services is successfully pivoting from a traditional waste hauler into a "purpose-driven" circular economy player, using its vertically integrated platform to capture the entire value chain from collection to specialized plastic processing. By prioritizing "The Republic Way" standardized operating model, Republic Services has achieved industry-leading gross margins, though it currently lags its peer group in top-line revenue growth.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Vertical Integration is threatened by Regulatory and Permitting Hurdles because Republic Services’s ability to build "market-specific density" depends on landfill expansions; failure to secure permits forces longer hauling distances, which significantly increases transportation and disposal costs (10-K Item 1A).
Digital Efficiency is threatened by Fuel Price Volatility because the gains from the "RISE" dispatch platform can be quickly neutralized by the open market; a twenty-cent per gallon change in diesel prices impacts fuel costs by approximately $26 million annually (10-K Item 1A).
Sustainability Initiatives are threatened by Recycled Commodity Pricing because the revenue from facilities like Polymer Centers is tied to volatile resale values for paper and plastic; a $10 per ton price change shifts operating income by $13 million (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

Republic Services maintains a 49.5% gross margin—the highest among its peer group—yet its 3.3% year-over-year revenue growth is the slowest in the same set (XBRL). This suggests a strategic choice to prioritize profitability over aggressive volume expansion. In the most recent quarter, total revenue volume actually decreased by 1.0%, but management successfully defended the bottom line by implementing a 5.8% core price increase (8-K). This divergence indicates that growth is currently structural, driven by pricing power and "disciplined cost management" rather than a cyclical surge in waste generation. While the Environmental Solutions segment saw a 2.0% organic decline, this was primarily due to a non-recurring $50 million emergency project in the prior year, masking the underlying stability of the core recycling and waste business (8-K).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 27.8x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Republic Services is valued exactly in line with the peer median (Yahoo Finance). According to the CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in ~3.8% long-term growth. This implied rate is supported by Republic Services’s actual trajectory, as the 3.3% revenue growth combined with a 1.1% buyback yield suggests an implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth of 4.9% (CAPM analysis).

Republic Services’s 13.5% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin is the second-highest among peers, justifying a premium over lower-margin competitors like EME (7.5%). However, investors must weigh this against a heavy 4.8x net leverage ratio and $12.3 billion in net debt (XBRL). If growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of only 20.6x, representing significant downside from current levels (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if revenue volume turns positive (currently -1.0%), proving that "Customer Zeal" initiatives are capturing market share rather than just supporting price hikes.
Cautious if Republic Services fails to maintain its investment-grade credit rating, as the $14 billion debt load makes it sensitive to rising interest costs and restrictive covenants (10-K Item 1A).
Cautious if core pricing growth falls below cost inflation, as the current valuation relies entirely on management's ability to push price increases in excess of rising operational expenses.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: Vertical integration combined with a standardized "Republic Way" operating model that extracts 49.5% gross margins from the waste stream.

Bottom Line: Republic Services is a high-quality, high-margin operator trading at a fair price, but its heavy debt load and reliance on pricing over volume growth limit the potential for significant outperformance.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Fuel Price Volatility: Republic Services depends on open-market fuel purchases for its fleet. Because fuel recovery fees may not fully offset price spikes, significant fluctuations in diesel costs directly impact operating expenses.
Recycled Commodity Pricing: The resale value of materials like paper, cardboard, and plastics is volatile. Republic Services lacks current hedging agreements to mitigate this, meaning price swings directly affect revenue and operating income.
Substantial Indebtedness: With $14 billion in debt and finance leases as of December 31, 2025, Republic Services faces restricted financial flexibility, which could hinder its ability to fund growth, pay dividends, or repurchase stock if covenants are breached.
Regulatory and Permitting Hurdles: Obtaining or expanding permits for landfills and transfer stations is increasingly difficult and expensive. Failure to secure these approvals can force Republic Services to haul waste longer distances, significantly increasing transportation and disposal costs.
Landfill Capping and Remediation Estimates: Republic Services must accrue for the eventual closure and post-closure maintenance of its landfills. Underestimating these long-term costs or being forced to accelerate closure timelines could result in material charges against earnings.

2. Company-Specific Risks

CNG Fleet Investment: Republic Services has invested significant capital in compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles and fueling stations. If CNG adoption fails to grow or tax incentives are reduced, the expected competitive and cost advantages of this fleet may not materialize.
Unionized Workforce: Approximately 22% of the workforce is covered by collective bargaining agreements. Past strikes and work stoppages have disrupted operations and increased costs, and further unionization could exacerbate these financial pressures.
Landfill Diversion Trends: Increasing customer preferences for recycling and zero-waste goals reduce the volume of waste sent to landfills. If Republic Services cannot grow alternative service lines to offset this, landfill disposal revenue will decline.
Acquisition Integration: Growth depends on identifying and integrating acquisitions. Due diligence may fail to uncover undisclosed environmental or contractual liabilities, for which Republic Services would be responsible as the successor owner.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

PFAS Liability: The EPA’s 2024 listing of certain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) as hazardous substances under CERCLA could trigger significant new remediation obligations and liabilities.
Greenhouse Gas Regulations: New Canadian Landfill Methane Regulations finalized in December 2025 aim to reduce waste sector methane emissions by 42% below 2019 levels by 2030, which may require material capital expenditures for infrastructure upgrades.
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Exposure: Republic Services operates 84 landfill gas-to-energy projects. Changes to the RFS program or the price of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) directly impact the financial performance of these renewable energy investments.
Multiemployer Pension Plans: Republic Services contributes to underfunded multiemployer pension plans. A withdrawal event—which Republic Services considers from time to time—would require payments for its proportionate share of unfunded vested liabilities.

4. Financial Impact Map

Fuel Price Volatility → Operating Expenses → A twenty-cent per gallon change in diesel fuel changes annual fuel costs by approximately $26 million.

Recycled Commodity Pricing → Revenue and Operating Income → A $10 per ton change in the price of recycled commodities changes both annual revenue and operating income by approximately $13 million.

Substantial Indebtedness → Interest Expense → Inability to maintain investment-grade ratings would increase interest expense and limit access to financing.

Regulatory and Permitting Hurdles → Waste Transportation and Disposal Costs → Failure to obtain permits may force Republic Services to haul waste long distances to other facilities at a higher cost.

Landfill Capping and Remediation Estimates → Earnings → Underestimating costs or accelerating closure timelines requires charges against earnings for unamortized capitalized expenditures.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—