STLD
MaterialsSteel Dynamics
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2007–2025(19yr)| Metric | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $8.1B | $4.0B | $6.3B | $8.0B | $7.3B | $7.4B | $8.8B | $7.6B | $7.8B | $9.5B | $11.8B | $10.5B | $9.6B | $18.4B | $22.3B | $18.8B | $17.5B | $18.2B | +3.6% |
| Gross Profit | $915.7M | $1.2B | $399.1M | $675.7M | $931.5M | $719.9M | $719.1M | $966.2M | $731.7M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.3B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $5.4B | $6.1B | $4.0B | $2.8B | $2.4B | -14.6% |
| Gross Margin | 20.9% | 15.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 19.6% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 29.1% | 27.5% | 21.5% | 16.0% | 13.2% | -2.8pp |
| Operating Income | $690.7M | $846.4M | $119.5M | $364.8M | $584.8M | $391.2M | $386.5M | $320.3M | -$72.8M | $728.0M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $986.9M | $847.1M | $4.3B | $5.1B | $3.2B | $1.9B | $1.5B | -24.0% |
| Operating Margin | 15.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | -1.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 23.4% | 22.9% | 16.8% | 11.1% | 8.1% | -3.0pp |
| Net Income | $394.6M | $463.4M | -$8.2M | $140.7M | $265.7M | $142.3M | $163.5M | $91.7M | -$145.2M | $360.0M | $805.8M | $1.3B | $677.9M | $570.8M | $3.2B | $3.9B | $2.5B | $1.5B | $1.2B | -22.9% |
| Net Margin | 9.0% | 5.7% | -0.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | -1.9% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | -2.2pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.0M | $357.8M | $115.5M | $35.9M | — | — | — | — | — | $654.6M | $574.5M | $1.2B | $944.3M | -$211.0M | $1.2B | $3.6B | $1.9B | -$23.5M | $501.5M | +2233.8% |
| FCF Margin | 0.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.6% | — | — | — | — | — | 8.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | -2.2% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 9.9% | -0.1% | 2.8% | +2.9pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.01 | $2.38 | $-0.04 | $0.64 | $1.22 | $0.73 | $0.83 | $0.67 | $-0.54 | $1.56 | $3.36 | $5.35 | $3.04 | $2.59 | $15.56 | $20.92 | $14.64 | $9.84 | $7.99 | -18.8% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Steel Dynamics is attempting to evolve from a pure-play steelmaker into a diversified metals provider, using the cash flow from its circular "scrap-to-steel" model to fund a massive entry into the aluminum market. While it leads its peer group in returning capital to shareholders, its bottom line remains tethered to the "metal spread," making it a high-yield play on industrial cyclicality.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "vertically connected" circular model is intended to optimize costs, but it is threatened by metal spread compression because Steel Dynamics’s recycling platform and steel mills both suffer when global overcapacity drives down finished steel prices while scrap costs remain high (Risks). The "proximity advantage" of being near customers is undermined by global overcapacity and imports, as foreign producers can exert downward pressure on domestic prices regardless of local freight savings (Competitive Position). Furthermore, the "entrepreneurial culture" that puts 85% of senior leadership pay at risk could lead to significant talent retention pressure during prolonged cyclical downturns in the automotive and construction sectors (Business).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Despite a narrative of "technologically advanced, low-cost" operations, Steel Dynamics maintains a gross margin of 13.6%, ranking 5th among its 6-peer group (Peer Benchmarking). This suggests that its EAF technology and vertical integration are currently being offset by the capital-intensive nature of its growth phase; specifically, Steel Dynamics generated $1.4 billion in operating cash but saw $450 million of that consumed by "growth working capital" for the new aluminum platform (8-K). Short interest stands at 3.8% of the float, indicating a modest skepticism regarding the timing of this expansion. While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth of 3.6% aligns with the market's long-term expectations, the 35% sequential drop in steel operating income during Q4 2025 highlights how quickly seasonal maintenance and price fluctuations can erode the benefits of that growth (8-K).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 11.5x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Steel Dynamics is the cheapest stock in its group, trading at a 34% discount to the peer median of 17.4x (Peer Benchmarking). The market is pricing in approximately 3.5% long-term growth, which appears credible given Steel Dynamics's 3.6% TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth and its status as the peer leader in buyback yield at 3.6% (CAPM Analysis). This buyback activity effectively doubles the implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth to 7.1% by retiring shares. However, this discount is justified by a 3.1% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin that trails most peers and a net debt of $3.0B, representing 5.4x its annual free cash flow. Investors are paying a lower multiple for a company that is currently outspending its peers on a major aluminum pivot rather than harvesting peak steel profits.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if the aluminum segment's "growth working capital" requirements continue to suppress FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margins below the current 3.1% for multiple quarters.
- Constructive if the "metal spread" expands due to increased trade stability or a more favorable interest rate environment, as management anticipates (8-K).
- Cautious if the buyback yield drops significantly, as share retirements are currently doing the heavy lifting to meet the market's implied 7.1% EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth target.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A circular manufacturing model that integrates metals recycling with EAF steelmaking and downstream fabrication to minimize working capital and carbon intensity.
Bottom Line: Steel Dynamics is an attractively valued, high-payout industrial cyclical whose success depends on a flawless execution of its aluminum expansion to offset inherent steel price volatility.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Metal Spread Compression: The financial performance of Steel Dynamics is primarily driven by the metal spread between selling prices for steel products and the cost of metallic raw materials. Prolonged periods of global steel overcapacity, which lower selling prices, combined with high demand for scrap, which raises input costs, can compress these spreads and reduce profitability.
- Cyclical Industry Demand: Steel Dynamics is heavily dependent on cyclical industries including construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, and energy. Economic downturns, high interest rates, or inflation in these sectors can lead to reduced demand, lower sales volumes, and decreased profitability.
- Global Overcapacity and Imports: Global steelmaking capacity exceeds consumption, leading foreign producers to export steel at prices lower than domestic levels. This influx of imports exerts downward pressure on United States steel prices, negatively impacting Steel Dynamics's results of operations.
- Raw Material Price Volatility: Steel Dynamics requires large amounts of ferrous and aluminum scrap. Prices for these materials are subject to market forces beyond Steel Dynamics's control, including freight costs and speculation. An inability to pass these cost increases on to customers can constrain operating levels and reduce profit margins.
- Credit Market Disruptions: A decline in business confidence or a reduction in the availability of credit for customers can lead to order delays, cancellations, or customer bankruptcies. This increases Steel Dynamics's exposure to losses from uncollectible accounts and reduces overall sales.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Growth Strategy Execution: Steel Dynamics’s strategy involves expanding existing facilities, entering new business lines like the aluminum industry, and acquiring assets. These initiatives carry risks of cost overruns, construction delays, and the potential inability to integrate new operations or realize anticipated synergies.
- Operational Downtime: Manufacturing processes rely on critical equipment such as electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and continuous casters. Unanticipated equipment failures, fires, or explosions can cause production shutdowns, leading to increased costs and the potential for customers to pursue financial claims for incremental costs.
- Aluminum Customer Concentration: Steel Dynamics’s aluminum operations depend on a relatively concentrated group of customers. The loss of these relationships or a breach of sales agreements by these customers could materially affect the financial condition of the aluminum segment.
- Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities: Sophisticated cyberattacks could interrupt the functionality of automated manufacturing systems, potentially ceasing or slowing the ability to melt and roll steel or aluminum, leading to reputational harm and increased protection costs.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Environmental Compliance: Steel Dynamics is subject to extensive regulations regarding air emissions, wastewater, and hazardous waste (such as EAF dust). Failure to obtain or renew permits can result in fines, operational changes, or facility closures.
- Cleanup Liability: Under federal and state laws, Steel Dynamics may be held liable for the investigation and cleanup of disposal sites, including sites used by former owners or sites where Steel Dynamics sent materials for recycling. This liability can be retroactive and joint and several.
- Sustainability and GHG Goals: Steel Dynamics has set 2030 and 2050 goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Failure to meet these goals or comply with evolving climate change regulations could result in increased capital expenditures and negatively impact Steel Dynamics's stock price.
- International Trade Laws: Steel Dynamics is subject to complex foreign and United States laws, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and import-export controls, which increase the cost of doing business and expose Steel Dynamics to legal risks.
4. Financial Impact Map
Metal Spread Compression → Results of Operations → Driven by the difference between steel selling prices and metallic raw material costs. Cyclical Industry Demand → Sales → Fluctuations in demand from construction, automotive, and manufacturing sectors directly impact revenue levels. Global Overcapacity and Imports → Results of Operations → Downward pressure on domestic steel prices reduces margins and cash flows. Raw Material Price Volatility → Profit Margins → Inability to pass on scrap cost increases directly reduces profitability. Credit Market Disruptions → Uncollectible Customer Accounts → Financial instability of customers increases exposure to losses from uncollectible accounts.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Jan 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Steel Dynamics projects Q1 EPS $2.73–$2.77, significantly above Q4 $1.82
- ▸Q1 2026 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77, up from $1.82 in Q4 2025
- ▸Order backlog grew over 35% YoY, extending into Q3 2026
- ▸Steel operations profitability expected to rise on expanded metal margins
- ▸Columbus aluminum mill commissioning underway with automotive qualification received
- ▸Q1 share repurchases totaled $66 million
Steel Dynamics Q3 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77 misses consensus estimate of $3.24
- ▸Q3 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77 per share
- ▸Consensus analyst estimate was $3.24 per share
- ▸Guidance significantly below market expectations
- ▸Update provided ahead of official quarterly earnings release
Steel Dynamics Q1 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77 misses consensus estimate of $3.24
- ▸Q1 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77 per share
- ▸Consensus analyst estimate was $3.24 per share
- ▸Guidance falls significantly below market expectations
- ▸Steel Dynamics shares decline following outlook release
Steel Dynamics Q1 2026 EPS Guidance $2.73–$2.77, Significantly Above Q4 $1.82
- ▸Q1 2026 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77, vs $1.82 in Q4 2025
- ▸Steel operations profitability expected meaningfully higher on increased shipments and margins
- ▸Steel fabrication backlog over 35% higher than year-ago levels
- ▸Repurchased $66 million of common stock during Q1 2026
- ▸Annual profit-sharing payment of approximately $126 million impacted Q1 working capital
Steel Dynamics Q1 2026 EPS Guidance $2.73–$2.77, Significantly Above Q4 $1.82
- ▸Q1 2026 EPS guidance $2.73–$2.77, vs $1.82 in Q4 2025
- ▸Steel operations profitability expected meaningfully higher on increased shipments and margins
- ▸Steel fabrication backlog over 35% higher than prior year
- ▸Repurchased $66 million of common stock during Q1 2026
- ▸Annual profit-sharing payment of approximately $126 million impacted Q1 working capital