TJX

Cyclical

TJX Companies

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2010–2025(16yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$20.3B	$21.9B	$23.2B	$25.9B	$27.4B	$29.1B	$30.9B	$33.2B	$35.9B	$39.0B	$41.7B	$32.1B	$48.5B	$49.9B	$54.2B	$56.4B	+4.0%
Gross Profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$9.6B	$10.4B	$11.1B	$11.9B	$7.6B	$13.8B	$13.8B	$16.3B	$17.2B	+6.0%
Gross Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.0%	28.9%	28.6%	28.5%	23.7%	28.5%	27.6%	30.0%	30.6%	+0.6pp
Operating Income	—	$10.3M	-$16.6M	$3.4B	$3.7B	$3.9B	$4.1B	$4.3B	$4.4B	$4.8B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating Margin	—	0.0%	-0.1%	13.3%	13.4%	13.5%	13.3%	12.8%	12.3%	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net Income	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.6B	$3.1B	$3.3B	$90.5M	$3.3B	$3.5B	$4.5B	$4.9B	+8.7%
Net Margin	6.0%	6.1%	6.5%	7.4%	7.8%	7.6%	7.4%	6.9%	7.3%	7.9%	7.8%	0.3%	6.8%	7.0%	8.3%	8.6%	+0.4pp
Free Cash Flow	$1.8B	$1.3B	$1.1B	$2.1B	$1.6B	—	—	$2.6B	$2.0B	$3.0B	$2.8B	$4.0B	$2.0B	$2.6B	$4.3B	$4.2B	-3.2%
FCF Margin	9.1%	5.8%	4.8%	8.0%	6.0%	—	—	7.8%	5.5%	7.6%	6.8%	12.4%	4.1%	5.3%	8.0%	7.4%	-0.5pp
EPS (Diluted)	$2.84	$3.30	$1.93	$2.55	$2.94	$3.15	$3.33	$3.46	$4.04	$2.43	$2.67	$0.07	$2.70	$2.97	$3.86	$4.26	+10.4%

Total Debt$2.9B

Cash & Equiv.$5.3B

Net Cash$2.5B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

TJX has turned the inefficiency of the global retail supply chain into a structural competitive advantage. By operating a "flexible business model" that lacks permanent walls or fixed departments, TJX Companies can pivot its entire inventory mix toward whatever brand-name goods are available at a discount from its 21,000 vendors (10-K Item 1). This "treasure hunt" experience creates a self-reinforcing cycle: high inventory turnover allows TJX to buy closer to need, which in turn reduces the markdown risks that plague traditional department stores.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

The "opportunistic buying" strategy is threatened by inventory management risks because the model relies on merchants making rapid, high-volume purchases that must accurately forecast consumer demand; a single misstep leads to excess inventory and forced markdowns (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the strength of TJX’s "geographically diverse network" is threatened by its reliance on global sourcing from China, India, and southeastern Asia. Geopolitical instability in regions like the Red Sea and the Middle East directly impacts the cost and availability of goods, potentially narrowing the 20% to 60% pricing gap that defines TJX Companies's value proposition (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

TJX operates at a massive scale compared to its peers, with $56.7 billion in TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue—more than double that of its closest off-price competitor, Ross Stores ($21.2 billion) (XBRL). While its 31.1% gross margin is the second-lowest in its peer group, this is a deliberate feature of its "everyday value" pricing strategy rather than a sign of weakness (XBRL).

The most recent quarterly results show a significant acceleration in momentum. While TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth stands at 4.0%, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 saw a 9% sales increase, driven by a 5% jump in consolidated comparable sales (8-K, XBRL). This divergence from the long-term trend was fueled by "sharp execution" across all segments, particularly TJX Canada (+7%) and HomeGoods (+6%). However, management expects this to mean-revert, guiding for a more modest 2% to 3% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2027 (8-K). Market sentiment remains stable, with short interest at a negligible 1.1% of the float (Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At a 28.3x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, the market is pricing in approximately 5.0% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This represents a 16% premium to the peer median of 24.5x (Yahoo Finance). This premium is supported by TJX's superior scale and its recent 9% quarterly revenue growth, which suggests TJX Companies is currently outperforming its historical averages.

However, the valuation is sensitive to any deceleration. If growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 16.5x (CAPM analysis). For the current price to be "right," TJX must continue to exceed its own conservative guidance of 2% to 3% comparable sales growth. The biggest risk to this valuation is a significant supply chain disruption or a cybersecurity breach, either of which could impair the complex IT systems required to manage a "rapidly changing mix of merchandise" across 5,000 stores (10-K Item 1).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if consolidated comparable sales growth for fiscal 2027 falls toward the lower end of the 2% to 3% guidance, suggesting the "treasure hunt" appeal is cooling (8-K).
Constructive if the pretax profit margin exceeds the guided 11.8% for the full year, indicating that the "One TJX" global performance goals are driving higher-than-expected operational efficiency (8-K).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A global sourcing network of 21,000 vendors and a flexible, "no-walls" store format that allows for rapid inventory pivots. Bottom Line: TJX is a dominant market leader trading at a premium valuation that requires flawless execution of its opportunistic buying strategy to justify.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Opportunistic Buying Strategy: TJX Companies relies on merchants to source merchandise at prices significantly below conventional retailers. Failure to accurately forecast demand or allocate the right merchandise mix can lead to excess inventory, forced markdowns, and reduced sales.
Global Sourcing and Supply Chain: A substantial portion of merchandise is sourced from China, India, and southeastern Asia. TJX Companies faces risks from tariffs, trade restrictions, transportation capacity shortages, and geopolitical conflicts in regions like the Middle East and the Red Sea, all of which impact the cost and availability of inventory.
Cybersecurity and IT Infrastructure: TJX Companies depends on complex IT systems for point-of-sale processing, supply chain management, and financial reporting. Cybersecurity breaches or system failures could lead to material loss, regulatory enforcement actions, and class-action litigation.
Competitive Retail Landscape: TJX Companies operates in a highly competitive market against local, national, and international retailers. Failure to compete effectively on price, brand appeal, and store experience—or to adapt to the growth of e-commerce—could adversely affect sales and operating results.
Labor Costs and Workforce Management: As a large employer, TJX Companies is sensitive to minimum wage laws, benefit requirements, and competition for labor. Increased labor costs or unionization efforts in distribution centers and stores could negatively impact operating expenses and financial performance.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Off-Price Business Model Sensitivity: TJX Companies’s model requires maintaining a specific "value gap" compared to conventional retailers; if merchandise is not purchased at sufficiently low prices, TJX Companies cannot maintain this gap, directly impacting margins.
Seasonal Concentration: Because TJX Companies realizes higher sales and earnings in the second half of the year (back-to-school and holiday seasons), any disruption during this period has a disproportionately adverse effect on annual operating results.
Real Estate Lease Obligations: TJX Companies leases almost all of its store locations. If it decides to close stores, it remains liable for rent, taxes, and maintenance for the balance of the lease term, which can represent a significant financial obligation.
Inventory Shrinkage: TJX Companies faces inherent risks of asset loss and theft, including organized retail crime, which directly impacts the cost of goods sold and financial performance.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

International Trade and Tariffs: Changes in U.S. trade policies, including tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, threaten to increase the cost of sourcing and require modifications to TJX Companies’s merchandise model.
Compliance and Reporting: TJX Companies is subject to evolving regulations regarding climate-related financial disclosures, human capital management, and social compliance. Failure to meet these standards or accurately report progress can lead to litigation, regulatory fines, and reputational harm.
Tax Audits: TJX Companies is subject to continuous examination of its tax returns in multiple jurisdictions. Adverse rulings or settlements regarding transfer pricing or tax positions could materially affect the effective income tax rate and cash requirements.
Product Safety and Compliance: TJX Companies must comply with regulations from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and the FDA. Failure to ensure vendor compliance or the sale of recalled/defective products can result in significant fines, penalties, and mandatory product recalls.

4. Financial Impact Map

Opportunistic Buying Strategy → Sales and Margins → Failure to maintain the "value gap" or manage inventory mix leads to markdowns and reduced transaction volume. Global Sourcing and Supply Chain → Cost of Goods Sold → Tariffs, duties, and transportation cost fluctuations directly increase the cost of imported merchandise. Cybersecurity and IT Infrastructure → Operating Expenses → Costs associated with IT security investments, potential regulatory fines, and legal liability from data breaches. Labor Costs → Operating Expenses → Increases in minimum wage, benefits, and pension funding requirements directly inflate payroll and administrative costs. Real Estate Lease Obligations → Operating Expenses → Long-term lease commitments create fixed costs that persist even if stores are closed or underperform.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis