TRMB

Technology

Trimble Inc.

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2009–2026(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2025	FY 2026Latest	YoY
Revenue	$1.3B	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.6B	$2.0B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.7B	$3.1B	$3.3B	$3.2B	$3.7B	$3.7B	$3.8B	$3.7B	$3.6B	-2.6%
Gross Profit	$649.1M	$549.9M	$645.5M	$829.6M	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.5B	+3.4%
Gross Margin	48.8%	48.8%	49.9%	50.5%	51.3%	52.6%	53.9%	52.5%	52.4%	52.5%	53.7%	54.4%	55.7%	55.6%	57.3%	61.4%	65.1%	69.1%	+4.0pp
Operating Income	$185.5M	$85.8M	$127.6M	$156.4M	$212.6M	$251.7M	$260.8M	$154.4M	$181.0M	$246.0M	$320.7M	$375.9M	$419.8M	$561.0M	$510.9M	$448.8M	$460.7M	$592.0M	+28.5%
Operating Margin	14.0%	7.6%	9.9%	9.5%	10.4%	11.0%	10.9%	6.7%	7.7%	9.3%	10.2%	11.5%	13.3%	15.3%	13.9%	11.8%	12.5%	16.5%	+4.0pp
Net Income	$141.5M	$63.4M	$103.7M	$150.8M	$191.1M	$218.9M	$214.1M	$121.1M	$132.4M	$121.1M	$282.8M	$514.3M	$389.9M	$492.7M	$449.7M	$311.3M	$1.5B	$424.0M	-71.8%
Net Margin	10.6%	5.6%	8.0%	9.2%	9.4%	9.6%	8.9%	5.3%	5.6%	4.6%	9.0%	15.7%	12.4%	13.5%	12.2%	8.2%	40.8%	11.8%	-29.0pp
Free Cash Flow	$159.9M	$181.9M	$100.9M	$218.4M	$286.6M	$343.8M	$359.8M	—	—	$386.0M	$419.1M	$516.0M	$615.2M	$704.4M	$348.0M	$555.1M	$497.8M	$360.9M	-27.5%
FCF Margin	12.0%	16.2%	7.8%	13.3%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	—	—	14.5%	13.4%	15.8%	19.5%	19.2%	9.5%	14.6%	13.5%	10.1%	-3.5pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.14	$0.52	$0.84	$1.20	$1.49	$0.84	$0.81	$0.47	$0.52	$0.47	$1.12	$2.03	$1.55	$1.94	$1.80	$1.25	$6.09	$1.76	-71.1%

Total Debt$1.4B

Cash & Equiv.$253.4M

Net Debt$1.1B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Trimble is attempting a high-stakes migration from selling physical tools to controlling the digital platforms that connect construction and transportation workflows. While total revenue slipped 1% in the most recent quarter, the record $2.39 billion in annualized recurring revenue shows the "Connect & Scale" strategy is gaining traction, even as it leaves Trimble Inc. more vulnerable to subscription churn and supply chain bottlenecks for its remaining hardware (8-K).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Trimble’s "unique ability" to bridge physical and digital data through its 1,000+ patents is threatened by its reliance on a limited group of sole-source suppliers (10-K Item 1A). This vulnerability is magnified because Trimble must compete with massive AI companies for the same critical components, risking delivery delays that could stall its platform growth. Furthermore, the strategic push into "integrated ecosystems" through acquisitions is undermined by material weaknesses in accounting for those very business combinations, risking the accuracy of the financial statements used to value this transition.

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The headline 1% revenue decline in the fourth quarter masks a 4% organic growth rate, suggesting Trimble is successfully shedding lower-quality revenue in favor of its subscription platforms (8-K). However, peer data reveals a significant efficiency gap: Trimble’s 8.4% free cash flow margin is the lowest in its peer group, trailing leader PTC’s 40.4% by a wide margin (XBRL). While management cites record gross margins, Trimble Inc.’s net margin of 8.8% also sits at the bottom of its competitive set. This reflects the high structural costs of maintaining a complex, multi-sided marketplace that must remain interoperable across "mixed-fleet" environments.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 17.0x forward earnings, Trimble trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 18.4x. At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 7.5% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This appears optimistic given a TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue decline of 2.6% and the fact that Trimble ranks 5th of 6 peers in growth (XBRL). For this valuation to be justified, Trimble must prove that its record recurring revenue can overcome the drag from its declining product segment, which fell to $268.3 million in the most recent quarter (8-K). If growth slows to a more modest 5%, the sensitivity analysis suggests a justified multiple of only 12.3x.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Constructive if Trimble Inc. successfully remediates its material weaknesses in internal controls, restoring confidence in its acquisition accounting and financial reporting.
Cautious if product revenue continues to decline faster than subscription growth can offset it, or if free cash flow margins fail to move toward the peer median of 18.7%.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A proprietary "data estate" and 1,000+ patents that integrate physical field data into digital workflows, creating high switching costs for construction and transport firms. Bottom Line: Trimble is a compelling transition story with an attractive buyback yield, but it remains a laggard on cash flow efficiency compared to its software-heavy peers.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Global Economic and Trade Exposure: Trimble Inc. derives a significant portion of its revenue outside the U.S., making it vulnerable to inflation, recession, and geopolitical instability. Trade disruptions, such as increased tariffs or new trade barriers, could increase supply costs, reduce product competitiveness, and create uncertainty in demand.
Supply Chain Concentration: Trimble Inc. depends on a limited group of contract manufacturers and sole-source suppliers for critical components. High demand for these components from major AI companies has made procurement more difficult and expensive, risking delivery delays and inventory imbalances.
Internal Control Weaknesses: Trimble Inc. identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting related to business combination accounting. Failure to effectively remediate these could lead to material misstatements in financial statements or further delays in SEC filings.
Subscription Revenue Retention: An increasing portion of revenue is generated through subscription services. Because customers have no obligation to renew contracts after their initial one-to-three-year terms, Trimble Inc. must continually provide compelling solutions to prevent revenue declines.
Strategic Alliance and Distribution Risks: Success depends on maintaining alliances with industry participants like Caterpillar, Nikon, Hilti, and AGCO. Evolution of business strategies may lead to increased competition with these allies, potentially pressuring sales and distribution channel effectiveness.

2. Company-Specific Risks

GNSS Signal Dependency: Trimble Inc. products rely on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology, which is subject to potential degradation or intentional disruption. Trimble Inc. specifically notes that the U.S. government’s 24-satellite standard for GPS is critical, and any reduction in operating satellites could impair product utility.
Spectrum Interference: Trimble Inc.’s GNSS technology is vulnerable to harmful interference from new or modified radio frequency spectrum uses. For example, Trimble Inc. previously opposed an FCC proposal to repurpose spectrum adjacent to authorized GNSS bands, which would have created interference for its receivers.
Divestiture and JV Complexity: Trimble Inc. has divested businesses, such as its agricultural business to a joint venture with AGCO and its Mobility business to Platform Science. These arrangements involve ongoing commercial dependencies and minority equity stakes where Trimble Inc. has limited control over performance.
AI Integration Challenges: Trimble Inc. is investing heavily in AI, but faces risks that competitors may incorporate AI more successfully, or that AI-related outputs could infringe on intellectual property or data privacy rights, leading to reputational or technical harm.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Data Privacy Compliance: Trimble Inc. is subject to a complex patchwork of global privacy laws, including the EU’s GDPR (which carries fines of up to 4% of global annual revenue) and the California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA).
Export Controls: Many products are subject to U.S. export law restrictions. Violations could result in fines, criminal sanctions, or prohibitions on conducting business in specific countries.
Anti-Corruption Laws: Trimble Inc. operates in regions with significant governmental corruption and must comply with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the U.K. Bribery Act, which may conflict with local customs.
Functional Safety Regulation: As Trimble Inc. enhances features for automated and autonomous operation, it faces increasing functional safety regulations and mandatory certifications, such as Conformité Européenne (CE) for GNSS receivers.

4. Financial Impact Map

Global Economic and Trade Exposure → Revenue and Operating Margin → Deterioration in global economies or increased tariffs could reduce demand and increase product costs. Supply Chain Concentration → Cost of Goods Sold and Inventory → Difficulty obtaining components or excess inventory accumulation due to inaccurate forecasting. Internal Control Weaknesses → Access to Capital Markets → Inability to use Form S-3 for twelve months (ending April 2026) makes accessing capital more costly or less efficient. Subscription Revenue Retention → Subscription Revenue → Failure to renew contracts after initial one-to-three-year terms would lead to a decline in recurring revenue. Debt Obligations → Cash Flow and Interest Expense → $1.4 billion in senior notes requires significant resources to repay or refinance; higher interest rates would increase interest expense.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Jan 2026
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Oct 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—