TSCO

Cyclical

Tractor Supply

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(18yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.6B	$4.2B	$4.7B	$5.2B	$5.7B	$6.2B	$6.8B	$7.3B	$7.9B	$8.4B	$10.6B	$12.7B	$14.2B	$14.6B	$14.9B	$15.5B	+4.3%
Gross Profit	$955.1M	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$2.9B	$3.8B	$4.5B	$5.0B	$5.2B	$5.4B	$5.7B	+4.8%
Gross Margin	31.8%	32.5%	33.1%	33.2%	33.6%	34.0%	34.1%	34.4%	34.3%	34.3%	34.2%	34.4%	35.4%	35.2%	35.0%	35.9%	36.3%	36.4%	+0.2pp
Operating Income	$178.4M	$191.6M	$266.2M	$352.7M	$436.8M	$514.6M	$589.5M	$650.5M	$694.1M	$686.4M	$701.7M	$743.2M	$996.9M	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	-0.0%
Operating Margin	5.9%	6.0%	7.3%	8.3%	9.4%	10.0%	10.3%	10.4%	10.2%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.4%	10.3%	10.1%	10.2%	9.9%	9.5%	-0.4pp
Net Income	$108.0M	$119.7M	$168.0M	$222.7M	$276.5M	$328.2M	$370.9M	$410.4M	$437.1M	$422.6M	$532.4M	$562.4M	$749.0M	$997.1M	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	-0.5%
Net Margin	3.6%	3.7%	4.6%	5.3%	5.9%	6.4%	6.5%	6.6%	6.4%	5.8%	6.7%	6.7%	7.1%	7.8%	7.7%	7.6%	7.4%	7.1%	-0.3pp
Free Cash Flow	$126.0M	$141.3M	$126.1M	$88.0M	$225.4M	$115.5M	$248.6M	$192.7M	$413.0M	$381.0M	$415.9M	$594.3M	$1.1B	$510.3M	$583.6M	$580.1M	$636.8M	$740.5M	+16.3%
FCF Margin	4.2%	4.4%	3.5%	2.1%	4.8%	2.2%	4.4%	3.1%	6.1%	5.3%	5.3%	7.1%	10.4%	4.0%	4.1%	4.0%	4.3%	4.8%	+0.5pp
EPS (Diluted)	$1.44	$1.63	$2.25	$3.01	$3.80	$2.32	$2.66	$3.00	$3.27	$3.30	$4.31	$4.66	$6.38	$8.61	$9.71	$10.09	$2.04	$2.06	+1.0%

Total Debt$150.0M

Cash & Equiv.$194.1M

Net Cash$44.1M

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Tractor Supply is attempting to solidify its role as a "trip consolidator" for the rural lifestyle to insulate itself from a cooling retail environment. While its focus on "needs-based" products for farmers and ranchers provides a defensive moat, Tractor Supply is now heavily dependent on aggressive physical store expansion and loyalty program engagement to maintain growth as discretionary spending wanes.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Tractor Supply’s "legendary" customer service and specialized in-store experience are threatened by evolving digital expectations and the demand for low-price delivery (Risks). If customers shift toward online channels, the foot traffic that fuels Tractor Supply’s "destination retailer" status and cross-selling opportunities could diminish. Furthermore, the strategic priority to open 100 new stores in 2026 is threatened by potential site acquisition difficulties and the structural reality that new locations generally carry higher operating expenses and lower gross margins than mature stores (10-K Item 1A).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

While Tractor Supply maintained revenue growth of 4.3% over the last twelve months, its most recent quarterly net income fell 3.8% (8-K). This divergence reveals a shift in the business mix: "consumable, usable, and edible" (C.U.E.) products remain resilient, but "discretionary demand moderated," particularly in big-ticket items (8-K). This pressure is reflected in the peer data, where Tractor Supply reports a 10.1% operating margin—the lowest among its peer group (XBRL). This suggests that Tractor Supply’s specialized service model and "everyday low price" philosophy result in higher structural costs than general retailers like Lowe's or specialized auto parts peers. Sentiment appears cautious, with short interest currently at 6.9% of the float (Yahoo Finance).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 21.1x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Tractor Supply is valued in line with the peer median of 21.4x. The market is pricing in approximately 3.6% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This expectation is consistent with Tractor Supply’s 2026 guidance for 4% to 6% net sales growth, but it leaves little room for error given that comparable store sales—a measure of organic health—are only projected to increase 1% to 3% (8-K).

The valuation is supported by a revenue growth rate (+4.3%) that exceeds most peers, including Lowe’s (-3.1%) and Williams-Sonoma (-0.5%). However, Tractor Supply’s FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin of 6.4% ranks 5th out of 6 peers, trailing significantly behind AutoZone’s 11.0% (XBRL). If growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 17.1x, suggesting the current price relies on the successful execution of the 2026 store rollout (CAPM analysis).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if comparable store sales for discretionary categories continue to decline, as the business would become increasingly reliant on lower-margin "essential" categories to drive traffic.
Constructive if the "Side Lot" and Garden Center transformations result in a measurable uptick in operating margins toward the 9.6% upper-end of 2026 guidance.
Cautious if the construction of the Nampa, Idaho distribution center faces delays, as this facility is critical for supporting the 2026 expansion strategy.

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A specialized "trip consolidator" model that leverages a 30-million-member loyalty program and proprietary brands to dominate the rural "Out Here" niche. Bottom Line: Tractor Supply is a fairly valued defensive retailer whose upside is capped by its dependency on physical expansion to offset a slowdown in organic store growth.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Comparable Store Sales Fluctuations: Tractor Supply experiences volatility in sales at stores open for at least twelve months due to factors such as the retail environment, competition, and weather, which may cause results to differ materially from expectations.
Merchandising and Marketing Execution: Failure to correctly identify consumer trends or execute marketing programs could lead to overstocking unpopular products, resulting in inventory impairments or retail price reductions that harm profitability.
Consumer Needs and Digital Expectations: Tractor Supply must adapt to changing purchasing behaviors, including the demand for low-price delivery and convenient pickup; a shift toward online sales could reduce in-store traffic and cross-selling opportunities.
New Store Expansion: The strategy to grow the store base is dependent on finding suitable locations and managing operational challenges; new stores generally have lower gross margins and higher operating expenses than mature locations.
Competitive Environment: Tractor Supply operates in a highly competitive sector against general merchandise retailers, farm cooperatives, and internet-based retailers, which may hinder its ability to maintain pricing power and profitability.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Owned Brands Reputation: The value of the Tractor Supply name and its "Owned Brands" is integral to the business; negative publicity or failure to meet quality standards could lead to decreased revenue.
ESG and DE&I Goals: Changes to carbon emissions and DE&I goals, or the decision not to adopt specific climate targets, may negatively impact relationships with stakeholders, potentially affecting stock price and consumer perception.
Acquisition Integration: The success of acquisitions, such as the December 2024 purchase of Allivet, depends on accurate valuation and integration; failure to assimilate operations could divert management attention and capital.
Artificial Intelligence Investments: Tractor Supply’s increasing use of AI for forecasting and inventory planning carries risks of operational disruptions, data loss, or erroneous decision-making if systems fail to operate as expected.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Climate Disclosure Obligations: New regulations, such as those in California, may impose complex reporting requirements that increase compliance burdens and regulatory costs.
Data Privacy and Security: Tractor Supply is subject to federal and state laws regarding the protection of customer and team member data; failure to comply could result in litigation, fines, and damage to reputation.
Environmental Compliance: Tractor Supply is subject to federal, state, and local environmental laws; noncompliance with waste management or other regulations could lead to enforcement actions and increased capital expenditures for remediation.
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA): As a U.S. company with international sourcing, Tractor Supply must comply with the FCPA; failure to prevent improper payments to foreign officials could result in penalties and legal expenses.

4. Financial Impact Map

Comparable Store Sales Fluctuations → Net Sales → Results may differ materially from prior periods and expectations. Merchandising and Marketing Execution → Profitability (Gross Margin) → Inventory impairment or retail price reductions due to overstocking. New Store Expansion → Gross Margin and Operating Expenses → New stores have lower gross margins and higher operating expenses as a percentage of net sales than mature stores. Purchase Price Volatility → Gross Margin → Inflationary or deflationary pressure on product costs (grain, steel, petroleum, etc.) impacts consumer demand and margins. Indebtedness and Credit Facilities → Liquidity and Cash Flow → $1.77 billion in total outstanding consolidated debt as of December 27, 2025, restricts operations and requires cash for debt service.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Nov 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Mar 2025	—