TSN

Defensive

Tyson Foods

Price Chart

Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2008–2025(20yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$26.9B	$26.7B	$26.7B	$28.4B	$28.4B	$32.3B	$33.3B	$34.4B	$37.6B	$41.4B	$36.9B	$38.3B	$40.1B	$42.4B	$43.2B	$47.0B	$53.3B	$52.9B	$53.3B	$54.4B	+2.1%
Gross Profit	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.2B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.7B	$3.9B	$4.7B	$5.1B	$5.1B	$5.0B	$5.4B	$6.5B	$6.7B	$2.6B	$3.6B	$3.6B	-1.8%
Gross Margin	4.6%	4.5%	4.5%	8.8%	8.8%	6.8%	6.5%	6.9%	7.1%	9.5%	12.7%	13.3%	12.8%	11.8%	12.5%	13.9%	12.5%	5.0%	6.8%	6.5%	-0.3pp
Operating Income	$331.0M	-$215.0M	-$215.0M	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.4B	$2.2B	$2.8B	$2.9B	$3.1B	$2.8B	$3.1B	$4.4B	$4.4B	-$395.0M	$1.4B	$1.1B	-22.1%
Operating Margin	1.2%	-0.8%	-0.8%	5.5%	5.5%	4.0%	3.8%	4.0%	3.8%	5.2%	7.7%	7.7%	7.6%	6.7%	7.2%	9.3%	8.3%	-0.7%	2.6%	2.0%	-0.6pp
Net Income	$86.0M	-$547.0M	-$547.0M	$780.0M	$780.0M	$750.0M	$583.0M	$778.0M	$864.0M	$1.2B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$3.0B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$3.0B	$3.2B	-$648.0M	$800.0M	$474.0M	-40.8%
Net Margin	0.3%	-2.0%	-2.0%	2.7%	2.7%	2.3%	1.8%	2.3%	2.3%	2.9%	4.8%	4.6%	7.6%	4.8%	5.0%	6.5%	6.1%	-1.2%	1.5%	0.9%	-0.6pp
Free Cash Flow	-$70.0M	$592.0M	$592.0M	$882.0M	$882.0M	$403.0M	$497.0M	$756.0M	$546.0M	$1.7B	$2.0B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$1.3B	$2.7B	$2.6B	$800.0M	-$187.0M	$1.5B	$1.2B	-19.3%
FCF Margin	-0.3%	2.2%	2.2%	3.1%	3.1%	1.2%	1.5%	2.2%	1.5%	4.1%	5.5%	4.0%	4.4%	3.0%	6.2%	5.6%	1.5%	-0.4%	2.7%	2.2%	-0.6pp
EPS (Diluted)	$0.24	$-1.47	$-1.47	$2.06	$2.06	$1.97	$1.58	$2.12	$2.37	$2.95	$4.53	$4.79	$8.19	$5.52	$5.86	$8.34	$8.92	$-1.87	$2.25	$1.33	-40.9%

Total Debt$7.9B

Cash & Equiv.$1.2B

Net Debt$6.7B

3 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Tyson Foods is a volume giant currently trapped by the structural realities of the cattle cycle. While it maintains a dominant, vertically integrated position in poultry, its overall profitability is being held hostage by a beef segment that swung to a $319 million loss in the most recent quarter (10-Q). Tyson Foods is essentially running faster just to stay in place, growing revenue while watching net income evaporate.

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Tyson’s "fully integrated" chicken production process is threatened by commodity price volatility because feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal account for 53% of the cost to grow a bird (Risks). This cost pressure is compounded by customer concentration; because Walmart represents 18.7% of total sales, Tyson has limited leverage to pass these rising input costs through to consumers without risking its primary distribution channel (10-K Item 1). Furthermore, the "limited supply of market-ready cattle" directly undermines Tyson’s scale, turning its massive processing infrastructure into a fixed-cost burden when pens are empty (Competitive Position).

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

The financial data reveals a business with razor-thin margins that leave no room for operational errors. Tyson’s gross margin of 6.6% is among the lowest in its peer group, trailing General Mills (33.8%) and Hormel (16.0%) significantly (XBRL). While management points to "operational execution," the most recent quarterly results show net income falling from $359 million to $85 million despite a 5.1% increase in revenue (8-K). This divergence suggests that Tyson’s growth is currently "unprofitable growth," where higher sales volumes in Beef and Chicken are being offset by higher operating costs and segment losses. Short interest remains low at 2.9% of the float, indicating that while the market is skeptical of growth, it is not yet betting on a liquidity crisis (Supplemental Signals).

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 13.7x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Tyson is trading exactly in line with the peer median (XBRL). According to CAPM analysis, this valuation implies the market is pricing in a long-term growth rate of only 0.5%. This valuation is "in line with peers" but reflects the heavy baggage of the Beef segment, which is expected to lose between $250 million and $500 million in fiscal 2026 (Recent Results). For this price to be justified, Tyson must successfully execute its "Operational Optimization" and automation plans to move its FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (2.9%) closer to peers like Hershey or General Mills (XBRL). If the cattle supply remains constrained through 2026, the current multiple may be difficult to maintain as earnings continue to be suppressed.

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the Beef segment’s operating loss exceeds the projected $500 million ceiling, which would indicate that the U.S. cattle supply imbalance is more structural than cyclical (Recent Results).
Constructive if FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin expands toward the 4.9% level seen at Hormel, signaling that Tyson’s investments in the Manufacturing Automation Center are successfully reducing the cost of production (XBRL).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: A vertically integrated poultry supply chain anchored by the proprietary Cobb-Vantress breeding stock and a national distribution network that serves 140 countries.

Bottom Line: Tyson Foods is a scale-driven protein leader currently hamstrung by a brutal cattle cycle and a dangerous dependence on a single retail giant.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

3 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Commodity Price Volatility: Tyson Foods is dependent on the cost and supply of beef, pork, poultry, corn, and soybean meal. Because these inputs are subject to market forces beyond Tyson Foods's control, Tyson Foods may be unable to pass cost increases to consumers, directly impacting gross margins and profitability.
Customer Concentration: The loss or significant change in terms with major customers, particularly Walmart Inc. (18.7% of fiscal 2025 sales), could materially reduce product sales and operating income.
Concentrated Voting Control: Tyson Limited Partnership and the Tyson family hold approximately 71.94% of the total voting power. This concentration allows them to control the election of directors and major corporate transactions, which may prevent changes in control favored by other stockholders and potentially depress the stock price.
International Operational Risks: Tyson Foods operates in approximately 140 countries, with $7.4 billion in foreign sales and $0.7 billion in foreign long-lived assets. These operations are exposed to currency fluctuations, trade restrictions, tariffs, and political instability.
Goodwill and Intangible Asset Impairment: Tyson Foods carries $13.5 billion in goodwill and indefinite life intangible assets, representing approximately 37% of total assets. Changes in economic conditions or business performance could trigger impairment charges that would negatively impact net worth and results of operations.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Operational Optimization Execution: Tyson Foods’s financial excellence and network optimization plans may prove more costly or time-consuming than anticipated, potentially failing to deliver expected savings.
Multiemployer Pension Liability: Tyson Foods participates in a multiemployer pension plan that is reported to have a significant underfunded liability; withdrawal from this plan could result in a material lump-sum payment obligation.
Derivative Market Exposure: Tyson Foods uses derivative financial instruments to hedge commodity and interest rate risks, but positions not designated as hedges are marked to fair value, meaning unrealized losses are reported directly in earnings.
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities: While no significant events occurred in fiscal 2025, Tyson Foods relies on IT systems for inventory, sales, and financial processing; a failure could lead to operational downtime, loss of data, and regulatory enforcement actions.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Environmental Compliance: Tyson Foods is subject to stringent environmental laws regarding waste disposal, packaging, and emissions. Compliance costs are material, and past operations may have incurred liabilities for hazardous waste disposal.
Product Liability: Tyson Foods faces risks from potential contamination (e.g., Listeria, Salmonella, E. coli). Some commercial contracts contain uncapped indemnification clauses, exposing Tyson Foods to significant financial penalties and recall costs.
Climate Change Regulation: New legal requirements to manage greenhouse gas emissions or climate risks may force significant changes to business operations and strategy, requiring unplanned capital expenditures.
Tax Audits: Tyson Foods is subject to tax examinations in multiple jurisdictions; disagreements with authorities regarding tax positions could result in additional liabilities, interest, and penalties.

4. Financial Impact Map

Commodity Price Volatility → Gross Margin → Feed ingredients represent ~53% of live chicken production costs. Customer Concentration → Net Sales → Walmart Inc. accounted for 18.7% of fiscal 2025 sales. Goodwill and Intangible Asset Impairment → Total Assets / Net Worth → $13.5 billion in goodwill and indefinite life intangibles (37% of total assets). International Operational Risks → Export Sales / Long-lived Assets → $7.4 billion in foreign sales and $0.7 billion in foreign long-lived assets. Multiemployer Pension Plan → Consolidated Balance Sheet / Statement of Operations → Potential material liability upon withdrawal from an underfunded plan.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
8-K	Feb 2026	—
10-Q	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
14A	Dec 2025	—
10-K	Nov 2025	Sep 2025